AI MODEL READ
SETTLEDPHI vs MIA
Philadelphia Phillies at Miami Marlins
Monday, July 27, 2026
SIMULATION · ONE TRIAL, EVERY MARKET
Watch the model run this game.
One representative trial from the PHI @ MIA simulation — real per-AB batter, outcome, and score progression from the spine. Every game-level market updates in lock-step with each play.
FIELD
PITCH SEQUENCE
PHI Leadoff (R) vs HP
OUTCOME DISTRIBUTION
PHI Leadoff in this spot
BATTER PROPS · PHI LEADOFF
PITCHER PROPS · HP
GAME MARKETS · LIVE
updating per event
MONEYLINE
MIA to win
TOTAL
Over 8.5
RUN LINE
MIA -1.5
TEAM TOTAL MIA
Over 4.5
FIRST 5 INN
MIA wins F5
event 1 / 15 · pitching
Every card on the board is a live read. As the game changes, the math changes with it — every prop, every market line, in real time. Cards turn green when they hit, red when they miss.
I · GAME-LEVEL MODEL
Win probability + total.
GAME WINNER
✗ MISSEDPhiladelphia vs Miami Winner?
5,000-TRIAL SIMULATION
II · EVERY MARKET WE RAN
Swipe the whole board.
One card per hitter and pitcher, plus the game markets — the sim's own number on every line it priced, with the reasoning that produced it.
169 simulated lines · raw sim
1 / 21
Game Markets
PHI @ MIA · full-game reads
Moneyline
PHI to win
57%
1st 5 Innings
MIA F5
38%
Game Total
Over 8.5
47%
1st 5 Total
Over 4.5
47%
Run Line
MIA -1.5
28%
Team Total
PHI Over 4.5
48%
Team Total
MIA Over 4.5
35%
THE READ
PHI projects to outscore MIA by 0.96 runs across 5,000 trials.
- Projected runs: PHI 4.77, MIA 3.81
- Aaron Nola (PHI) vs Sandy Alcantara (MIA)
- Run on league-average lineups — refreshes when lineups post
Aaron Nola
PHI SP · vs. MIA
Strikeouts
5+ Ks
72%
Strikeouts
6+ Ks
55%
Strikeouts
7+ Ks
37%
Strikeouts
8+ Ks
22%
Strikeouts
9+ Ks
12%
Outs Recorded
15+ outs
88%
Outs Recorded
18+ outs
52%
Hits Allowed
5+ hits
55%
Hits Allowed
6+ hits
42%
THE READ
Middle-of-the-road strikeout projection at 5.9 Ks.
- Sim projects 5.9 strikeouts
- 72% to reach 5+ against MIA
Sandy Alcantara
MIA SP · vs. PHI
Strikeouts
5+ Ks
40%
Strikeouts
6+ Ks
23%
Strikeouts
7+ Ks
11%
Strikeouts
8+ Ks
5%
Strikeouts
9+ Ks
2%
Outs Recorded
15+ outs
97%
Outs Recorded
18+ outs
79%
Hits Allowed
5+ hits
77%
Hits Allowed
6+ hits
65%
THE READ
Middle-of-the-road strikeout projection at 4.2 Ks.
- Sim projects 4.2 strikeouts
- 40% to reach 5+ against PHI
Kyle Schwarber
PHI · bats L · slot 2
Home Run
1+ HR
31%
Hits
1+ hits
75%
Hits
2+ hits
36%
Total Bases
2+ bases
56%
Total Bases
3+ bases
43%
Total Bases
4+ bases
36%
RBIs
1+ RBI
46%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
23%
THE READ
Stands out most on 1+ HR — 31% against 12% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 2 · bats L
- Facing Sandy Alcantara
Bryce Harper
PHI · bats L · slot 3
Home Run
1+ HR
23%
Hits
1+ hits
74%
Hits
2+ hits
35%
Total Bases
2+ bases
53%
Total Bases
3+ bases
36%
Total Bases
4+ bases
28%
RBIs
1+ RBI
42%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
20%
THE READ
Stands out most on 1+ HR — 23% against 12% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 3 · bats L
- Cold on results, but hitting the ball well
- Facing Sandy Alcantara
Brandon Marsh
PHI · bats L · slot 4
Home Run
1+ HR
21%
Hits
1+ hits
76%
Hits
2+ hits
38%
Total Bases
2+ bases
54%
Total Bases
3+ bases
37%
Total Bases
4+ bases
28%
RBIs
1+ RBI
44%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
22%
THE READ
Stands out most on 2+ RBIs — 22% against 11% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 4 · bats L
- Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
- Facing Sandy Alcantara
Griffin Conine
MIA · bats L · slot 6
Home Run
1+ HR
16%
Hits
1+ hits
62%
Hits
2+ hits
23%
Total Bases
2+ bases
41%
Total Bases
3+ bases
25%
Total Bases
4+ bases
20%
RBIs
1+ RBI
30%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
12%
THE READ
Stands out most on 1+ HR — 16% against 12% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 6 · bats L
- Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
- Facing Aaron Nola
Trea Turner
PHI · bats R · slot 1
Home Run
1+ HR
13%
Hits
1+ hits
72%
Hits
2+ hits
33%
Total Bases
2+ bases
45%
Total Bases
3+ bases
27%
Total Bases
4+ bases
18%
RBIs
1+ RBI
31%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
11%
THE READ
Stands out most on 2+ hits — 33% against 25% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 1 · bats R
- Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
- Facing Sandy Alcantara
Otto Lopez
MIA · bats R · slot 1
Home Run
1+ HR
9%
Hits
1+ hits
70%
Hits
2+ hits
30%
Total Bases
2+ bases
45%
Total Bases
3+ bases
25%
Total Bases
4+ bases
15%
RBIs
1+ RBI
24%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
7%
THE READ
Stands out most on 2+ hits — 30% against 25% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 1 · bats R
- Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
- Facing Aaron Nola
Alec Bohm
PHI · bats R · slot 5
Home Run
1+ HR
9%
Hits
1+ hits
64%
Hits
2+ hits
25%
Total Bases
2+ bases
36%
Total Bases
3+ bases
20%
Total Bases
4+ bases
13%
RBIs
1+ RBI
33%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
12%
THE READ
Stands out most on 1+ RBI — 33% against 29% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 5 · bats R
- Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
- Facing Sandy Alcantara
Joe Mack
MIA · bats L · slot 8
Home Run
1+ HR
13%
Hits
1+ hits
57%
Hits
2+ hits
18%
Total Bases
2+ bases
35%
Total Bases
3+ bases
21%
Total Bases
4+ bases
16%
RBIs
1+ RBI
27%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
10%
THE READ
Stands out most on 1+ HR — 13% against 12% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 8 · bats L
- Facing Aaron Nola
Kyle Stowers
MIA · bats L · slot 2
Home Run
1+ HR
13%
Hits
1+ hits
61%
Hits
2+ hits
21%
Total Bases
2+ bases
37%
Total Bases
3+ bases
22%
Total Bases
4+ bases
16%
RBIs
1+ RBI
25%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
9%
THE READ
Stands out most on 1+ HR — 13% against 12% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 2 · bats L
- Facing Aaron Nola
Bryson Stott
PHI · bats L · slot 6
Home Run
1+ HR
7%
Hits
1+ hits
66%
Hits
2+ hits
26%
Total Bases
2+ bases
36%
Total Bases
3+ bases
19%
Total Bases
4+ bases
11%
RBIs
1+ RBI
29%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
10%
THE READ
Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 66%.
- Batting 6 · bats L
- Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
- Facing Sandy Alcantara
Justin Crawford
PHI · bats L · slot 9
Home Run
1+ HR
5%
Hits
1+ hits
65%
Hits
2+ hits
24%
Total Bases
2+ bases
35%
Total Bases
3+ bases
17%
Total Bases
4+ bases
9%
RBIs
1+ RBI
25%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
8%
THE READ
Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 65%.
- Batting 9 · bats L
- Facing Sandy Alcantara
J.T. Realmuto
PHI · bats R · slot 7
Home Run
1+ HR
10%
Hits
1+ hits
64%
Hits
2+ hits
24%
Total Bases
2+ bases
37%
Total Bases
3+ bases
22%
Total Bases
4+ bases
14%
RBIs
1+ RBI
29%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
11%
THE READ
Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 64%.
- Batting 7 · bats R
- Facing Sandy Alcantara
Heriberto Hernández
MIA · bats R · slot 3
Home Run
1+ HR
12%
Hits
1+ hits
61%
Hits
2+ hits
22%
Total Bases
2+ bases
37%
Total Bases
3+ bases
21%
Total Bases
4+ bases
15%
RBIs
1+ RBI
25%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
9%
THE READ
Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 61%.
- Batting 3 · bats R
- Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
- Facing Aaron Nola
Gabriel Rincones Jr.
PHI · bats L · slot 8
Home Run
1+ HR
10%
Hits
1+ hits
63%
Hits
2+ hits
24%
Total Bases
2+ bases
37%
Total Bases
3+ bases
20%
Total Bases
4+ bases
13%
RBIs
1+ RBI
28%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
11%
THE READ
Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 63%.
- Batting 8 · bats L
- Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
- Facing Sandy Alcantara
Xavier Edwards
MIA · bats S · slot 4
Home Run
1+ HR
4%
Hits
1+ hits
63%
Hits
2+ hits
22%
Total Bases
2+ bases
34%
Total Bases
3+ bases
16%
Total Bases
4+ bases
9%
RBIs
1+ RBI
22%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
6%
THE READ
Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 63%.
- Batting 4 · bats S
- Facing Aaron Nola
Liam Hicks
MIA · bats L · slot 5
Home Run
1+ HR
10%
Hits
1+ hits
61%
Hits
2+ hits
21%
Total Bases
2+ bases
34%
Total Bases
3+ bases
19%
Total Bases
4+ bases
13%
RBIs
1+ RBI
27%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
9%
THE READ
Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 61% against 64%.
- Batting 5 · bats L
- Facing Aaron Nola
Javier Sanoja
MIA · bats R · slot 7
Home Run
1+ HR
4%
Hits
1+ hits
55%
Hits
2+ hits
17%
Total Bases
2+ bases
27%
Total Bases
3+ bases
12%
Total Bases
4+ bases
6%
RBIs
1+ RBI
21%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
6%
THE READ
Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 55% against 64%.
- Batting 7 · bats R
- Facing Aaron Nola
Jakob Marsee
MIA · bats L · slot 9
Home Run
1+ HR
4%
Hits
1+ hits
46%
Hits
2+ hits
10%
Total Bases
2+ bases
21%
Total Bases
3+ bases
9%
Total Bases
4+ bases
5%
RBIs
1+ RBI
15%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
4%
THE READ
Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 46% against 64%.
- Batting 9 · bats L
- Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
- Facing Aaron Nola
III · METHODOLOGY
How this read was built.
- Simulation. 5,000 Monte Carlo trials of this game using real play-by-play data, confirmed lineups, pitcher quality, bullpen depth, defensive runs saved, catcher framing, umpire K-zones, and per-batter rates regressed with empirical Bayes.
- What the number means. The share of those 5,000 trials in which the outcome happened — the model's own estimate, not a claim that a sportsbook has mispriced it. We publish it next to the reasoning that produced it and let the settlement record below speak for itself.
- Settlement. Every read on this page is graded by Kalshi's own settlement market once the game ends. The post-game version of this page shows what was confirmed and what was missed.
DISCLOSURE
BetFly is not a sportsbook, prediction market, or wagering operator. The model reads above are sabermetric simulation output — not advice or a recommendation on whether or how to bet. See our Disclaimer for the full risk disclosure.