AI MODEL READ
SETTLEDNYY vs CWS
New York Yankees at Chicago White Sox
Monday, July 27, 2026
SIMULATION · ONE TRIAL, EVERY MARKET
Watch the model run this game.
One representative trial from the NYY @ CWS simulation — real per-AB batter, outcome, and score progression from the spine. Every game-level market updates in lock-step with each play.
FIELD
PITCH SEQUENCE
NYY Leadoff (R) vs HP
OUTCOME DISTRIBUTION
NYY Leadoff in this spot
BATTER PROPS · NYY LEADOFF
PITCHER PROPS · HP
GAME MARKETS · LIVE
updating per event
MONEYLINE
CWS to win
TOTAL
Over 8.5
RUN LINE
CWS -1.5
TEAM TOTAL CWS
Over 4.5
FIRST 5 INN
CWS wins F5
event 1 / 13 · pitching
Every card on the board is a live read. As the game changes, the math changes with it — every prop, every market line, in real time. Cards turn green when they hit, red when they miss.
I · GAME-LEVEL MODEL
Win probability + total.
GAME WINNER
✓ CONFIRMEDNew York Y vs Chicago WS Winner?
5,000-TRIAL SIMULATION
II · EVERY MARKET WE RAN
Swipe the whole board.
One card per hitter and pitcher, plus the game markets — the sim's own number on every line it priced, with the reasoning that produced it.
169 simulated lines · raw sim
1 / 21
Game Markets
NYY @ CWS · full-game reads
Moneyline
NYY to win
59%
1st 5 Innings
CWS F5
38%
Game Total
Over 8.5
61%
1st 5 Total
Over 4.5
60%
Run Line
CWS -1.5
29%
Team Total
NYY Over 4.5
58%
Team Total
CWS Over 4.5
44%
THE READ
NYY projects to outscore CWS by 1.23 runs across 5,000 trials.
- Projected runs: NYY 5.70, CWS 4.47
- Gerrit Cole (NYY) vs Anthony Kay (CWS)
- Run on league-average lineups — refreshes when lineups post
Gerrit Cole
NYY SP · vs. CWS
Strikeouts
5+ Ks
55%
Strikeouts
6+ Ks
36%
Strikeouts
7+ Ks
20%
Strikeouts
8+ Ks
10%
Strikeouts
9+ Ks
4%
Outs Recorded
15+ outs
91%
Outs Recorded
18+ outs
46%
Hits Allowed
5+ hits
67%
Hits Allowed
6+ hits
54%
THE READ
Middle-of-the-road strikeout projection at 4.8 Ks.
- Sim projects 4.8 strikeouts
- 55% to reach 5+ against CWS
Anthony Kay
CWS SP · vs. NYY
Strikeouts
5+ Ks
31%
Strikeouts
6+ Ks
15%
Strikeouts
7+ Ks
6%
Strikeouts
8+ Ks
2%
Strikeouts
9+ Ks
1%
Outs Recorded
15+ outs
43%
Outs Recorded
18+ outs
4%
Hits Allowed
5+ hits
58%
Hits Allowed
6+ hits
44%
THE READ
Low-strikeout projection at 3.7 Ks — the ladder thins out fast above the first rung.
- Sim projects 3.7 strikeouts
- 31% to reach 5+ against NYY
Ben Rice
NYY · bats L · slot 2
Home Run
1+ HR
32%
Hits
1+ hits
81%
Hits
2+ hits
45%
Total Bases
2+ bases
61%
Total Bases
3+ bases
47%
Total Bases
4+ bases
38%
RBIs
1+ RBI
51%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
28%
THE READ
Stands out most on 1+ HR — 32% against 16% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 2 · bats L
- Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
- Facing Anthony Kay
Paul Goldschmidt
NYY · bats R · slot 3
Home Run
1+ HR
31%
Hits
1+ hits
80%
Hits
2+ hits
44%
Total Bases
2+ bases
61%
Total Bases
3+ bases
47%
Total Bases
4+ bases
37%
RBIs
1+ RBI
51%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
28%
THE READ
Stands out most on 1+ HR — 31% against 16% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 3 · bats R
- Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
- Facing Anthony Kay
Munetaka Murakami
CWS · slot 2
Home Run
1+ HR
23%
Hits
1+ hits
69%
Hits
2+ hits
29%
Total Bases
2+ bases
48%
Total Bases
3+ bases
33%
Total Bases
4+ bases
27%
RBIs
1+ RBI
37%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
16%
THE READ
Stands out most on 1+ HR — 23% against 16% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 2
- Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
- Facing Gerrit Cole
Jazz Chisholm Jr.
NYY · bats L · slot 6
Home Run
1+ HR
20%
Hits
1+ hits
75%
Hits
2+ hits
36%
Total Bases
2+ bases
53%
Total Bases
3+ bases
36%
Total Bases
4+ bases
26%
RBIs
1+ RBI
44%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
21%
THE READ
Stands out most on 2+ RBIs — 21% against 15% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 6 · bats L
- Facing Anthony Kay
Miguel Vargas
CWS · bats R · slot 3
Home Run
1+ HR
20%
Hits
1+ hits
71%
Hits
2+ hits
31%
Total Bases
2+ bases
49%
Total Bases
3+ bases
33%
Total Bases
4+ bases
26%
RBIs
1+ RBI
37%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
17%
THE READ
Stands out most on 1+ HR — 20% against 16% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 3 · bats R
- Facing Gerrit Cole
Jasson Domínguez
NYY · bats S · slot 4
Home Run
1+ HR
17%
Hits
1+ hits
75%
Hits
2+ hits
38%
Total Bases
2+ bases
51%
Total Bases
3+ bases
33%
Total Bases
4+ bases
23%
RBIs
1+ RBI
42%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
20%
THE READ
Stands out most on 2+ RBIs — 20% against 15% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 4 · bats S
- Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
- Facing Anthony Kay
Max Schuemann
NYY · bats R · slot 1
Home Run
1+ HR
17%
Hits
1+ hits
78%
Hits
2+ hits
40%
Total Bases
2+ bases
53%
Total Bases
3+ bases
34%
Total Bases
4+ bases
24%
RBIs
1+ RBI
39%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
17%
THE READ
Stands out most on 2+ hits — 40% against 31% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 1 · bats R
- Facing Anthony Kay
Colson Montgomery
CWS · bats L · slot 4
Home Run
1+ HR
19%
Hits
1+ hits
67%
Hits
2+ hits
25%
Total Bases
2+ bases
44%
Total Bases
3+ bases
30%
Total Bases
4+ bases
22%
RBIs
1+ RBI
37%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
17%
THE READ
Stands out most on 1+ HR — 19% against 16% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 4 · bats L
- Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
- Facing Gerrit Cole
Anthony Volpe
NYY · bats R · slot 5
Home Run
1+ HR
12%
Hits
1+ hits
75%
Hits
2+ hits
35%
Total Bases
2+ bases
49%
Total Bases
3+ bases
29%
Total Bases
4+ bases
19%
RBIs
1+ RBI
38%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
16%
THE READ
Stands out most on 2+ hits — 35% against 31% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 5 · bats R
- Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
- Facing Anthony Kay
Randal Grichuk
CWS · bats R · slot 1
Home Run
1+ HR
17%
Hits
1+ hits
73%
Hits
2+ hits
33%
Total Bases
2+ bases
48%
Total Bases
3+ bases
31%
Total Bases
4+ bases
22%
RBIs
1+ RBI
33%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
12%
THE READ
Stands out most on 1+ HR — 17% against 16% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 1 · bats R
- Facing Gerrit Cole
Spencer Jones
NYY · slot 8
Home Run
1+ HR
14%
Hits
1+ hits
72%
Hits
2+ hits
32%
Total Bases
2+ bases
46%
Total Bases
3+ bases
29%
Total Bases
4+ bases
20%
RBIs
1+ RBI
37%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
16%
THE READ
Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 72%.
- Batting 8
- Facing Anthony Kay
José Caballero
NYY · bats R · slot 7
Home Run
1+ HR
14%
Hits
1+ hits
71%
Hits
2+ hits
31%
Total Bases
2+ bases
44%
Total Bases
3+ bases
27%
Total Bases
4+ bases
19%
RBIs
1+ RBI
37%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
15%
THE READ
Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 71%.
- Batting 7 · bats R
- Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
- Facing Anthony Kay
Ali Sánchez
NYY · bats R · slot 9
Home Run
1+ HR
12%
Hits
1+ hits
72%
Hits
2+ hits
31%
Total Bases
2+ bases
44%
Total Bases
3+ bases
26%
Total Bases
4+ bases
17%
RBIs
1+ RBI
35%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
14%
THE READ
Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 72%.
- Batting 9 · bats R
- Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
- Facing Anthony Kay
Chase Meidroth
CWS · bats R · slot 5
Home Run
1+ HR
7%
Hits
1+ hits
68%
Hits
2+ hits
27%
Total Bases
2+ bases
39%
Total Bases
3+ bases
20%
Total Bases
4+ bases
11%
RBIs
1+ RBI
28%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
9%
THE READ
Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 68%.
- Batting 5 · bats R
- Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
- Facing Gerrit Cole
Braden Montgomery
CWS · bats S · slot 6
Home Run
1+ HR
7%
Hits
1+ hits
66%
Hits
2+ hits
26%
Total Bases
2+ bases
37%
Total Bases
3+ bases
20%
Total Bases
4+ bases
11%
RBIs
1+ RBI
27%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
9%
THE READ
Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 66% against 71%.
- Batting 6 · bats S
- Facing Gerrit Cole
Everson Pereira
CWS · slot 7
Home Run
1+ HR
10%
Hits
1+ hits
64%
Hits
2+ hits
24%
Total Bases
2+ bases
37%
Total Bases
3+ bases
20%
Total Bases
4+ bases
13%
RBIs
1+ RBI
28%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
10%
THE READ
Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 64% against 71%.
- Batting 7
- Facing Gerrit Cole
Luisangel Acuña
CWS · bats R · slot 9
Home Run
1+ HR
4%
Hits
1+ hits
61%
Hits
2+ hits
22%
Total Bases
2+ bases
32%
Total Bases
3+ bases
14%
Total Bases
4+ bases
7%
RBIs
1+ RBI
22%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
7%
THE READ
Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 61% against 71%.
- Batting 9 · bats R
- Facing Gerrit Cole
Edgar Quero
CWS · slot 8
Home Run
1+ HR
4%
Hits
1+ hits
55%
Hits
2+ hits
16%
Total Bases
2+ bases
25%
Total Bases
3+ bases
12%
Total Bases
4+ bases
6%
RBIs
1+ RBI
21%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
6%
THE READ
Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 55% against 71%.
- Batting 8
- Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
- Facing Gerrit Cole
III · METHODOLOGY
How this read was built.
- Simulation. 5,000 Monte Carlo trials of this game using real play-by-play data, confirmed lineups, pitcher quality, bullpen depth, defensive runs saved, catcher framing, umpire K-zones, and per-batter rates regressed with empirical Bayes.
- What the number means. The share of those 5,000 trials in which the outcome happened — the model's own estimate, not a claim that a sportsbook has mispriced it. We publish it next to the reasoning that produced it and let the settlement record below speak for itself.
- Settlement. Every read on this page is graded by Kalshi's own settlement market once the game ends. The post-game version of this page shows what was confirmed and what was missed.
DISCLOSURE
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