AI MODEL READ
SETTLEDMIL vs SF
Milwaukee Brewers at San Francisco Giants
Monday, July 27, 2026
SIMULATION · ONE TRIAL, EVERY MARKET
Watch the model run this game.
One representative trial from the MIL @ SF simulation — real per-AB batter, outcome, and score progression from the spine. Every game-level market updates in lock-step with each play.
FIELD
PITCH SEQUENCE
MIL Leadoff (R) vs HP
OUTCOME DISTRIBUTION
MIL Leadoff in this spot
BATTER PROPS · MIL LEADOFF
PITCHER PROPS · HP
GAME MARKETS · LIVE
updating per event
MONEYLINE
SF to win
TOTAL
Over 8.5
RUN LINE
SF -1.5
TEAM TOTAL SF
Over 4.5
FIRST 5 INN
SF wins F5
event 1 / 14 · pitching
Every card on the board is a live read. As the game changes, the math changes with it — every prop, every market line, in real time. Cards turn green when they hit, red when they miss.
I · GAME-LEVEL MODEL
Win probability + total.
GAME WINNER
✓ CONFIRMEDMilwaukee vs San Francisco Winner?
5,000-TRIAL SIMULATION
II · EVERY MARKET WE RAN
Swipe the whole board.
One card per hitter and pitcher, plus the game markets — the sim's own number on every line it priced, with the reasoning that produced it.
169 simulated lines · raw sim
1 / 21
Game Markets
MIL @ SF · full-game reads
Moneyline
MIL to win
59%
1st 5 Innings
SF F5
33%
Game Total
Over 8.5
36%
1st 5 Total
Over 4.5
36%
Run Line
SF -1.5
26%
Team Total
MIL Over 4.5
41%
Team Total
SF Over 4.5
28%
THE READ
MIL projects to outscore SF by 1.02 runs across 5,000 trials.
- Projected runs: MIL 4.27, SF 3.25
- Logan Henderson (MIL) vs Landen Roupp (SF)
- Run on league-average lineups — refreshes when lineups post
Logan Henderson
MIL SP · vs. SF
Strikeouts
5+ Ks
69%
Strikeouts
6+ Ks
49%
Strikeouts
7+ Ks
31%
Strikeouts
8+ Ks
16%
Strikeouts
9+ Ks
7%
Outs Recorded
15+ outs
59%
Outs Recorded
18+ outs
4%
Hits Allowed
5+ hits
36%
Hits Allowed
6+ hits
22%
THE READ
Middle-of-the-road strikeout projection at 5.6 Ks.
- Sim projects 5.6 strikeouts
- 69% to reach 5+ against SF
Landen Roupp
SF SP · vs. MIL
Strikeouts
5+ Ks
77%
Strikeouts
6+ Ks
60%
Strikeouts
7+ Ks
43%
Strikeouts
8+ Ks
27%
Strikeouts
9+ Ks
15%
Outs Recorded
15+ outs
99%
Outs Recorded
18+ outs
82%
Hits Allowed
5+ hits
69%
Hits Allowed
6+ hits
54%
THE READ
Strikeout-heavy projection — the sim has him at 6.2 Ks, with the ladder still live into the 8+ rung.
- Sim projects 6.2 strikeouts
- 77% to reach 5+ against MIL
Casey Schmitt
SF · bats R · slot 5
Home Run
1+ HR
21%
Hits
1+ hits
67%
Hits
2+ hits
26%
Total Bases
2+ bases
45%
Total Bases
3+ bases
31%
Total Bases
4+ bases
24%
RBIs
1+ RBI
37%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
17%
THE READ
Stands out most on 1+ HR — 21% against 14% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 5 · bats R
- Cold on results, but hitting the ball well
- Facing Logan Henderson
Rafael Devers
SF · bats L · slot 4
Home Run
1+ HR
21%
Hits
1+ hits
66%
Hits
2+ hits
26%
Total Bases
2+ bases
45%
Total Bases
3+ bases
31%
Total Bases
4+ bases
25%
RBIs
1+ RBI
38%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
17%
THE READ
Stands out most on 1+ HR — 21% against 14% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 4 · bats L
- Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
- Facing Logan Henderson
Jake Bauers
MIL · bats L · slot 5
Home Run
1+ HR
20%
Hits
1+ hits
71%
Hits
2+ hits
31%
Total Bases
2+ bases
48%
Total Bases
3+ bases
32%
Total Bases
4+ bases
25%
RBIs
1+ RBI
40%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
17%
THE READ
Stands out most on 1+ HR — 20% against 14% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 5 · bats L
- Facing Landen Roupp
Willy Adames
SF · bats R · slot 7
Home Run
1+ HR
18%
Hits
1+ hits
60%
Hits
2+ hits
21%
Total Bases
2+ bases
39%
Total Bases
3+ bases
26%
Total Bases
4+ bases
21%
RBIs
1+ RBI
31%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
13%
THE READ
Stands out most on 1+ HR — 18% against 14% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 7 · bats R
- Facing Logan Henderson
Brice Turang
MIL · bats L · slot 3
Home Run
1+ HR
17%
Hits
1+ hits
73%
Hits
2+ hits
35%
Total Bases
2+ bases
50%
Total Bases
3+ bases
32%
Total Bases
4+ bases
23%
RBIs
1+ RBI
38%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
16%
THE READ
Stands out most on 2+ hits — 35% against 27% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 3 · bats L
- Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
- Facing Landen Roupp
Jackson Chourio
MIL · bats R · slot 2
Home Run
1+ HR
16%
Hits
1+ hits
72%
Hits
2+ hits
34%
Total Bases
2+ bases
48%
Total Bases
3+ bases
30%
Total Bases
4+ bases
21%
RBIs
1+ RBI
34%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
14%
THE READ
Stands out most on 2+ hits — 34% against 27% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 2 · bats R
- Facing Landen Roupp
Bryce Eldridge
SF · bats L · slot 3
Home Run
1+ HR
17%
Hits
1+ hits
65%
Hits
2+ hits
24%
Total Bases
2+ bases
42%
Total Bases
3+ bases
28%
Total Bases
4+ bases
21%
RBIs
1+ RBI
33%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
14%
THE READ
Stands out most on 1+ HR — 17% against 14% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 3 · bats L
- Facing Logan Henderson
Andrew Vaughn
MIL · bats R · slot 6
Home Run
1+ HR
13%
Hits
1+ hits
72%
Hits
2+ hits
33%
Total Bases
2+ bases
49%
Total Bases
3+ bases
30%
Total Bases
4+ bases
20%
RBIs
1+ RBI
37%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
16%
THE READ
Stands out most on 2+ RBIs — 16% against 13% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 6 · bats R
- Facing Landen Roupp
Christian Yelich
MIL · bats L · slot 1
Home Run
1+ HR
14%
Hits
1+ hits
72%
Hits
2+ hits
33%
Total Bases
2+ bases
48%
Total Bases
3+ bases
30%
Total Bases
4+ bases
20%
RBIs
1+ RBI
34%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
13%
THE READ
Stands out most on 2+ hits — 33% against 27% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 1 · bats L
- Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
- Facing Landen Roupp
Heliot Ramos
SF · bats R · slot 2
Home Run
1+ HR
16%
Hits
1+ hits
68%
Hits
2+ hits
28%
Total Bases
2+ bases
44%
Total Bases
3+ bases
28%
Total Bases
4+ bases
21%
RBIs
1+ RBI
32%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
13%
THE READ
Stands out most on 1+ HR — 16% against 14% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 2 · bats R
- Facing Logan Henderson
Cooper Pratt
MIL · bats R · slot 8
Home Run
1+ HR
11%
Hits
1+ hits
68%
Hits
2+ hits
28%
Total Bases
2+ bases
42%
Total Bases
3+ bases
23%
Total Bases
4+ bases
16%
RBIs
1+ RBI
34%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
15%
THE READ
Stands out most on 2+ RBIs — 15% against 13% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 8 · bats R
- Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
- Facing Landen Roupp
Luis Arraez
SF · bats L · slot 1
Home Run
1+ HR
7%
Hits
1+ hits
70%
Hits
2+ hits
29%
Total Bases
2+ bases
40%
Total Bases
3+ bases
21%
Total Bases
4+ bases
12%
RBIs
1+ RBI
23%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
7%
THE READ
Stands out most on 2+ hits — 29% against 27% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 1 · bats L
- Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
- Facing Logan Henderson
William Contreras
MIL · bats R · slot 4
Home Run
1+ HR
10%
Hits
1+ hits
68%
Hits
2+ hits
29%
Total Bases
2+ bases
41%
Total Bases
3+ bases
23%
Total Bases
4+ bases
14%
RBIs
1+ RBI
33%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
13%
THE READ
Stands out most on 2+ hits — 29% against 27% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 4 · bats R
- Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
- Facing Landen Roupp
Garrett Mitchell
MIL · bats L · slot 7
Home Run
1+ HR
12%
Hits
1+ hits
69%
Hits
2+ hits
29%
Total Bases
2+ bases
42%
Total Bases
3+ bases
25%
Total Bases
4+ bases
16%
RBIs
1+ RBI
33%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
14%
THE READ
Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 69%.
- Batting 7 · bats L
- Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
- Facing Landen Roupp
Joey Ortiz
MIL · bats R · slot 9
Home Run
1+ HR
7%
Hits
1+ hits
61%
Hits
2+ hits
21%
Total Bases
2+ bases
32%
Total Bases
3+ bases
16%
Total Bases
4+ bases
9%
RBIs
1+ RBI
29%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
10%
THE READ
Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 61% against 67%.
- Batting 9 · bats R
- Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
- Facing Landen Roupp
Drew Gilbert
SF · bats L · slot 6
Home Run
1+ HR
8%
Hits
1+ hits
59%
Hits
2+ hits
19%
Total Bases
2+ bases
31%
Total Bases
3+ bases
16%
Total Bases
4+ bases
10%
RBIs
1+ RBI
22%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
7%
THE READ
Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 59% against 67%.
- Batting 6 · bats L
- Facing Logan Henderson
Grant McCray
SF · slot 8
Home Run
1+ HR
12%
Hits
1+ hits
58%
Hits
2+ hits
18%
Total Bases
2+ bases
33%
Total Bases
3+ bases
20%
Total Bases
4+ bases
15%
RBIs
1+ RBI
26%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
9%
THE READ
Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 58% against 67%.
- Batting 8
- Facing Logan Henderson
Jesus Rodriguez
SF · slot 9
Home Run
1+ HR
11%
Hits
1+ hits
57%
Hits
2+ hits
19%
Total Bases
2+ bases
33%
Total Bases
3+ bases
19%
Total Bases
4+ bases
13%
RBIs
1+ RBI
25%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
9%
THE READ
Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 57% against 67%.
- Batting 9
- Facing Logan Henderson
III · METHODOLOGY
How this read was built.
- Simulation. 5,000 Monte Carlo trials of this game using real play-by-play data, confirmed lineups, pitcher quality, bullpen depth, defensive runs saved, catcher framing, umpire K-zones, and per-batter rates regressed with empirical Bayes.
- What the number means. The share of those 5,000 trials in which the outcome happened — the model's own estimate, not a claim that a sportsbook has mispriced it. We publish it next to the reasoning that produced it and let the settlement record below speak for itself.
- Settlement. Every read on this page is graded by Kalshi's own settlement market once the game ends. The post-game version of this page shows what was confirmed and what was missed.
DISCLOSURE
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