AI MODEL READ
SETTLEDHOU vs LAA
Houston Astros at Los Angeles Angels
Monday, July 27, 2026
SIMULATION · ONE TRIAL, EVERY MARKET
Watch the model run this game.
One representative trial from the HOU @ LAA simulation — real per-AB batter, outcome, and score progression from the spine. Every game-level market updates in lock-step with each play.
FIELD
PITCH SEQUENCE
HOU Leadoff (R) vs HP
OUTCOME DISTRIBUTION
HOU Leadoff in this spot
BATTER PROPS · HOU LEADOFF
PITCHER PROPS · HP
GAME MARKETS · LIVE
updating per event
MONEYLINE
LAA to win
TOTAL
Over 8.5
RUN LINE
LAA -1.5
TEAM TOTAL LAA
Over 4.5
FIRST 5 INN
LAA wins F5
event 1 / 21 · pitching
Every card on the board is a live read. As the game changes, the math changes with it — every prop, every market line, in real time. Cards turn green when they hit, red when they miss.
I · GAME-LEVEL MODEL
Win probability + total.
GAME WINNER
✓ CONFIRMEDHouston vs Los Angeles A Winner?
5,000-TRIAL SIMULATION
II · EVERY MARKET WE RAN
Swipe the whole board.
One card per hitter and pitcher, plus the game markets — the sim's own number on every line it priced, with the reasoning that produced it.
169 simulated lines · raw sim
1 / 21
Game Markets
HOU @ LAA · full-game reads
Moneyline
HOU to win
49%
1st 5 Innings
LAA F5
49%
Game Total
Over 8.5
48%
1st 5 Total
Over 4.5
47%
Run Line
LAA -1.5
37%
Team Total
HOU Over 4.5
43%
Team Total
LAA Over 4.5
44%
THE READ
The sim splits this one — 8.78 total runs with under a quarter-run between the sides.
- Projected runs: HOU 4.41, LAA 4.37
- Peter Lambert (HOU) vs Reid Detmers (LAA)
- Run on league-average lineups — refreshes when lineups post
Peter Lambert
HOU SP · vs. LAA
Strikeouts
5+ Ks
55%
Strikeouts
6+ Ks
35%
Strikeouts
7+ Ks
19%
Strikeouts
8+ Ks
9%
Strikeouts
9+ Ks
3%
Outs Recorded
15+ outs
95%
Outs Recorded
18+ outs
35%
Hits Allowed
5+ hits
62%
Hits Allowed
6+ hits
48%
THE READ
Middle-of-the-road strikeout projection at 4.8 Ks.
- Sim projects 4.8 strikeouts
- 55% to reach 5+ against LAA
Reid Detmers
LAA SP · vs. HOU
Strikeouts
5+ Ks
82%
Strikeouts
6+ Ks
66%
Strikeouts
7+ Ks
47%
Strikeouts
8+ Ks
31%
Strikeouts
9+ Ks
17%
Outs Recorded
15+ outs
85%
Outs Recorded
18+ outs
34%
Hits Allowed
5+ hits
51%
Hits Allowed
6+ hits
37%
THE READ
Strikeout-heavy projection — the sim has him at 6.5 Ks, with the ladder still live into the 8+ rung.
- Sim projects 6.5 strikeouts
- 82% to reach 5+ against HOU
Yordan Alvarez
HOU · bats L · slot 2
Home Run
1+ HR
30%
Hits
1+ hits
77%
Hits
2+ hits
40%
Total Bases
2+ bases
59%
Total Bases
3+ bases
44%
Total Bases
4+ bases
35%
RBIs
1+ RBI
48%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
25%
THE READ
Stands out most on 1+ HR — 30% against 14% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 2 · bats L
- Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
- Facing Reid Detmers
Jeremy Peña
HOU · slot 1
Home Run
1+ HR
17%
Hits
1+ hits
77%
Hits
2+ hits
39%
Total Bases
2+ bases
53%
Total Bases
3+ bases
35%
Total Bases
4+ bases
24%
RBIs
1+ RBI
36%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
15%
THE READ
Stands out most on 2+ hits — 39% against 25% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 1
- Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
- Facing Reid Detmers
Mike Trout
LAA · slot 2
Home Run
1+ HR
22%
Hits
1+ hits
64%
Hits
2+ hits
23%
Total Bases
2+ bases
43%
Total Bases
3+ bases
29%
Total Bases
4+ bases
24%
RBIs
1+ RBI
34%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
14%
THE READ
Stands out most on 1+ HR — 22% against 14% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 2
- Facing Peter Lambert
Zach Neto
LAA · bats R · slot 1
Home Run
1+ HR
20%
Hits
1+ hits
65%
Hits
2+ hits
25%
Total Bases
2+ bases
44%
Total Bases
3+ bases
29%
Total Bases
4+ bases
23%
RBIs
1+ RBI
32%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
12%
THE READ
Stands out most on 1+ HR — 20% against 14% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 1 · bats R
- Facing Peter Lambert
Isaac Paredes
HOU · bats R · slot 3
Home Run
1+ HR
14%
Hits
1+ hits
70%
Hits
2+ hits
31%
Total Bases
2+ bases
45%
Total Bases
3+ bases
28%
Total Bases
4+ bases
20%
RBIs
1+ RBI
37%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
17%
THE READ
Stands out most on 2+ RBIs — 17% against 13% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 3 · bats R
- Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
- Facing Reid Detmers
Christian Walker
HOU · bats R · slot 7
Home Run
1+ HR
18%
Hits
1+ hits
67%
Hits
2+ hits
28%
Total Bases
2+ bases
46%
Total Bases
3+ bases
30%
Total Bases
4+ bases
22%
RBIs
1+ RBI
37%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
17%
THE READ
Stands out most on 2+ RBIs — 17% against 13% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 7 · bats R
- Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
- Facing Reid Detmers
Jorge Soler
LAA · bats R · slot 4
Home Run
1+ HR
17%
Hits
1+ hits
59%
Hits
2+ hits
19%
Total Bases
2+ bases
37%
Total Bases
3+ bases
25%
Total Bases
4+ bases
19%
RBIs
1+ RBI
33%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
15%
THE READ
Stands out most on 1+ HR — 17% against 14% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 4 · bats R
- Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
- Facing Peter Lambert
Taylor Trammell
HOU · bats L · slot 6
Home Run
1+ HR
14%
Hits
1+ hits
69%
Hits
2+ hits
30%
Total Bases
2+ bases
46%
Total Bases
3+ bases
29%
Total Bases
4+ bases
19%
RBIs
1+ RBI
36%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
16%
THE READ
Stands out most on 2+ hits — 30% against 25% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 6 · bats L
- Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
- Facing Reid Detmers
Josh Lowe
LAA · bats L · slot 6
Home Run
1+ HR
16%
Hits
1+ hits
60%
Hits
2+ hits
19%
Total Bases
2+ bases
36%
Total Bases
3+ bases
23%
Total Bases
4+ bases
19%
RBIs
1+ RBI
31%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
12%
THE READ
Stands out most on 1+ HR — 16% against 14% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 6 · bats L
- Facing Peter Lambert
LaMonte Wade Jr.
HOU · bats L · slot 4
Home Run
1+ HR
11%
Hits
1+ hits
66%
Hits
2+ hits
26%
Total Bases
2+ bases
39%
Total Bases
3+ bases
24%
Total Bases
4+ bases
15%
RBIs
1+ RBI
35%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
14%
THE READ
Stands out most on 1+ RBI — 35% against 32% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 4 · bats L
- Facing Reid Detmers
Jose Altuve
HOU · bats R · slot 5
Home Run
1+ HR
11%
Hits
1+ hits
65%
Hits
2+ hits
26%
Total Bases
2+ bases
38%
Total Bases
3+ bases
21%
Total Bases
4+ bases
14%
RBIs
1+ RBI
34%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
14%
THE READ
Stands out most on 2+ RBIs — 14% against 13% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 5 · bats R
- Facing Reid Detmers
Nolan Schanuel
LAA · bats L · slot 3
Home Run
1+ HR
9%
Hits
1+ hits
64%
Hits
2+ hits
24%
Total Bases
2+ bases
36%
Total Bases
3+ bases
20%
Total Bases
4+ bases
13%
RBIs
1+ RBI
28%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
10%
THE READ
Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 64%.
- Batting 3 · bats L
- Facing Peter Lambert
Lucas Spence
HOU · slot 8
Home Run
1+ HR
10%
Hits
1+ hits
64%
Hits
2+ hits
24%
Total Bases
2+ bases
39%
Total Bases
3+ bases
21%
Total Bases
4+ bases
14%
RBIs
1+ RBI
30%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
11%
THE READ
Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 64%.
- Batting 8
- Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
- Facing Reid Detmers
Vaughn Grissom
LAA · bats R · slot 5
Home Run
1+ HR
12%
Hits
1+ hits
62%
Hits
2+ hits
20%
Total Bases
2+ bases
35%
Total Bases
3+ bases
21%
Total Bases
4+ bases
15%
RBIs
1+ RBI
31%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
12%
THE READ
Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 62%.
- Batting 5 · bats R
- Facing Peter Lambert
Jo Adell
LAA · bats R · slot 7
Home Run
1+ HR
13%
Hits
1+ hits
60%
Hits
2+ hits
20%
Total Bases
2+ bases
36%
Total Bases
3+ bases
22%
Total Bases
4+ bases
16%
RBIs
1+ RBI
27%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
11%
THE READ
Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ HR at 13% against 14%.
- Batting 7 · bats R
- Facing Peter Lambert
Christian Vázquez
HOU · bats R · slot 9
Home Run
1+ HR
6%
Hits
1+ hits
58%
Hits
2+ hits
19%
Total Bases
2+ bases
29%
Total Bases
3+ bases
15%
Total Bases
4+ bases
9%
RBIs
1+ RBI
24%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
8%
THE READ
Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 58% against 64%.
- Batting 9 · bats R
- Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
- Facing Reid Detmers
Denzer Guzman
LAA · bats R · slot 8
Home Run
1+ HR
10%
Hits
1+ hits
58%
Hits
2+ hits
18%
Total Bases
2+ bases
33%
Total Bases
3+ bases
18%
Total Bases
4+ bases
12%
RBIs
1+ RBI
23%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
7%
THE READ
Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 58% against 64%.
- Batting 8 · bats R
- Facing Peter Lambert
Tyler Heineman
LAA · bats S · slot 9
Home Run
1+ HR
7%
Hits
1+ hits
52%
Hits
2+ hits
15%
Total Bases
2+ bases
26%
Total Bases
3+ bases
13%
Total Bases
4+ bases
9%
RBIs
1+ RBI
20%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
7%
THE READ
Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 52% against 64%.
- Batting 9 · bats S
- Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
- Facing Peter Lambert
III · METHODOLOGY
How this read was built.
- Simulation. 5,000 Monte Carlo trials of this game using real play-by-play data, confirmed lineups, pitcher quality, bullpen depth, defensive runs saved, catcher framing, umpire K-zones, and per-batter rates regressed with empirical Bayes.
- What the number means. The share of those 5,000 trials in which the outcome happened — the model's own estimate, not a claim that a sportsbook has mispriced it. We publish it next to the reasoning that produced it and let the settlement record below speak for itself.
- Settlement. Every read on this page is graded by Kalshi's own settlement market once the game ends. The post-game version of this page shows what was confirmed and what was missed.
DISCLOSURE
BetFly is not a sportsbook, prediction market, or wagering operator. The model reads above are sabermetric simulation output — not advice or a recommendation on whether or how to bet. See our Disclaimer for the full risk disclosure.