AI MODEL READ
SETTLEDCLE vs CIN
Cleveland Guardians at Cincinnati Reds
Monday, July 27, 2026
SIMULATION · ONE TRIAL, EVERY MARKET
Watch the model run this game.
One representative trial from the CLE @ CIN simulation — real per-AB batter, outcome, and score progression from the spine. Every game-level market updates in lock-step with each play.
FIELD
PITCH SEQUENCE
CLE Leadoff (R) vs HP
OUTCOME DISTRIBUTION
CLE Leadoff in this spot
BATTER PROPS · CLE LEADOFF
PITCHER PROPS · HP
GAME MARKETS · LIVE
updating per event
MONEYLINE
CIN to win
TOTAL
Over 8.5
RUN LINE
CIN -1.5
TEAM TOTAL CIN
Over 4.5
FIRST 5 INN
CIN wins F5
event 1 / 17 · pitching
Every card on the board is a live read. As the game changes, the math changes with it — every prop, every market line, in real time. Cards turn green when they hit, red when they miss.
I · GAME-LEVEL MODEL
Win probability + total.
GAME WINNER
✓ CONFIRMEDCleveland vs Cincinnati Winner?
5,000-TRIAL SIMULATION
II · EVERY MARKET WE RAN
Swipe the whole board.
One card per hitter and pitcher, plus the game markets — the sim's own number on every line it priced, with the reasoning that produced it.
169 simulated lines · raw sim
1 / 21
Game Markets
CLE @ CIN · full-game reads
Moneyline
CIN to win
59%
1st 5 Innings
CIN F5
59%
Game Total
Over 8.5
58%
1st 5 Total
Over 4.5
58%
Run Line
CIN -1.5
45%
Team Total
CLE Over 4.5
45%
Team Total
CIN Over 4.5
55%
THE READ
CIN projects to outscore CLE by 0.83 runs across 5,000 trials.
- Projected runs: CLE 4.50, CIN 5.33
- Slade Cecconi (CLE) vs Chase Burns (CIN)
- Run on league-average lineups — refreshes when lineups post
Slade Cecconi
CLE SP · vs. CIN
Strikeouts
5+ Ks
23%
Strikeouts
6+ Ks
11%
Strikeouts
7+ Ks
4%
Strikeouts
8+ Ks
1%
Strikeouts
9+ Ks
0%
Outs Recorded
15+ outs
71%
Outs Recorded
18+ outs
27%
Hits Allowed
5+ hits
70%
Hits Allowed
6+ hits
57%
THE READ
Low-strikeout projection at 3.3 Ks — the ladder thins out fast above the first rung.
- Sim projects 3.3 strikeouts
- 23% to reach 5+ against CIN
Chase Burns
CIN SP · vs. CLE
Strikeouts
5+ Ks
94%
Strikeouts
6+ Ks
85%
Strikeouts
7+ Ks
71%
Strikeouts
8+ Ks
54%
Strikeouts
9+ Ks
36%
Outs Recorded
15+ outs
99%
Outs Recorded
18+ outs
66%
Hits Allowed
5+ hits
58%
Hits Allowed
6+ hits
43%
THE READ
Strikeout-heavy projection — the sim has him at 7.8 Ks, with the ladder still live into the 8+ rung.
- Sim projects 7.8 strikeouts
- 94% to reach 5+ against CLE
JJ Bleday
CIN · bats L · slot 3
Home Run
1+ HR
30%
Hits
1+ hits
76%
Hits
2+ hits
37%
Total Bases
2+ bases
56%
Total Bases
3+ bases
42%
Total Bases
4+ bases
35%
RBIs
1+ RBI
47%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
24%
THE READ
Stands out most on 1+ HR — 30% against 17% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 3 · bats L
- Cold on results, but hitting the ball well
- Facing Slade Cecconi
Sal Stewart
CIN · bats R · slot 2
Home Run
1+ HR
28%
Hits
1+ hits
78%
Hits
2+ hits
41%
Total Bases
2+ bases
60%
Total Bases
3+ bases
44%
Total Bases
4+ bases
35%
RBIs
1+ RBI
47%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
23%
THE READ
Stands out most on 1+ HR — 28% against 17% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 2 · bats R
- Facing Slade Cecconi
Elly De La Cruz
CIN · bats S · slot 1
Home Run
1+ HR
27%
Hits
1+ hits
82%
Hits
2+ hits
47%
Total Bases
2+ bases
63%
Total Bases
3+ bases
46%
Total Bases
4+ bases
35%
RBIs
1+ RBI
45%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
21%
THE READ
Stands out most on 4+ bases — 35% against 22% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 1 · bats S
- Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
- Facing Slade Cecconi
Nathaniel Lowe
CIN · bats L · slot 5
Home Run
1+ HR
26%
Hits
1+ hits
75%
Hits
2+ hits
36%
Total Bases
2+ bases
54%
Total Bases
3+ bases
39%
Total Bases
4+ bases
31%
RBIs
1+ RBI
45%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
22%
THE READ
Stands out most on 1+ HR — 26% against 17% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 5 · bats L
- Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
- Facing Slade Cecconi
Eugenio Suárez
CIN · bats R · slot 4
Home Run
1+ HR
25%
Hits
1+ hits
73%
Hits
2+ hits
34%
Total Bases
2+ bases
52%
Total Bases
3+ bases
37%
Total Bases
4+ bases
29%
RBIs
1+ RBI
44%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
21%
THE READ
Stands out most on 1+ HR — 25% against 17% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 4 · bats R
- Facing Slade Cecconi
Tyler Stephenson
CIN · bats R · slot 6
Home Run
1+ HR
22%
Hits
1+ hits
76%
Hits
2+ hits
37%
Total Bases
2+ bases
54%
Total Bases
3+ bases
38%
Total Bases
4+ bases
29%
RBIs
1+ RBI
42%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
20%
THE READ
Stands out most on 4+ bases — 29% against 22% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 6 · bats R
- Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
- Facing Slade Cecconi
Chase DeLauter
CLE · bats L · slot 3
Home Run
1+ HR
17%
Hits
1+ hits
73%
Hits
2+ hits
35%
Total Bases
2+ bases
50%
Total Bases
3+ bases
33%
Total Bases
4+ bases
24%
RBIs
1+ RBI
39%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
17%
THE READ
Stands out most on 2+ hits — 35% against 31% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 3 · bats L
- Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
- Facing Chase Burns
Steven Kwan
CLE · bats L · slot 1
Home Run
1+ HR
6%
Hits
1+ hits
72%
Hits
2+ hits
32%
Total Bases
2+ bases
42%
Total Bases
3+ bases
22%
Total Bases
4+ bases
12%
RBIs
1+ RBI
24%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
7%
THE READ
Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 72%.
- Batting 1 · bats L
- Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
- Facing Chase Burns
Dane Myers
CIN · slot 7
Home Run
1+ HR
14%
Hits
1+ hits
72%
Hits
2+ hits
31%
Total Bases
2+ bases
46%
Total Bases
3+ bases
28%
Total Bases
4+ bases
19%
RBIs
1+ RBI
35%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
14%
THE READ
Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 72%.
- Batting 7
- Facing Slade Cecconi
Brayan Rocchio
CLE · bats S · slot 5
Home Run
1+ HR
12%
Hits
1+ hits
71%
Hits
2+ hits
30%
Total Bases
2+ bases
44%
Total Bases
3+ bases
26%
Total Bases
4+ bases
17%
RBIs
1+ RBI
36%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
14%
THE READ
Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 71%.
- Batting 5 · bats S
- Facing Chase Burns
Gabriel Arias
CLE · bats R · slot 7
Home Run
1+ HR
17%
Hits
1+ hits
66%
Hits
2+ hits
25%
Total Bases
2+ bases
42%
Total Bases
3+ bases
27%
Total Bases
4+ bases
20%
RBIs
1+ RBI
33%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
14%
THE READ
Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 66%.
- Batting 7 · bats R
- Facing Chase Burns
José Ramírez
CLE · slot 2
Home Run
1+ HR
13%
Hits
1+ hits
68%
Hits
2+ hits
28%
Total Bases
2+ bases
43%
Total Bases
3+ bases
26%
Total Bases
4+ bases
18%
RBIs
1+ RBI
31%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
13%
THE READ
Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 68%.
- Batting 2
- Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
- Facing Chase Burns
Travis Bazzana
CLE · bats L · slot 4
Home Run
1+ HR
14%
Hits
1+ hits
67%
Hits
2+ hits
28%
Total Bases
2+ bases
42%
Total Bases
3+ bases
25%
Total Bases
4+ bases
18%
RBIs
1+ RBI
34%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
15%
THE READ
Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 67%.
- Batting 4 · bats L
- Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
- Facing Chase Burns
Kyle Manzardo
CLE · bats L · slot 6
Home Run
1+ HR
16%
Hits
1+ hits
63%
Hits
2+ hits
23%
Total Bases
2+ bases
39%
Total Bases
3+ bases
25%
Total Bases
4+ bases
19%
RBIs
1+ RBI
32%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
15%
THE READ
Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 63%.
- Batting 6 · bats L
- Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
- Facing Chase Burns
Edwin Arroyo
CIN · bats S · slot 8
Home Run
1+ HR
7%
Hits
1+ hits
64%
Hits
2+ hits
25%
Total Bases
2+ bases
35%
Total Bases
3+ bases
19%
Total Bases
4+ bases
10%
RBIs
1+ RBI
29%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
10%
THE READ
Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 64% against 70%.
- Batting 8 · bats S
- Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
- Facing Slade Cecconi
Patrick Bailey
CLE · bats S · slot 8
Home Run
1+ HR
10%
Hits
1+ hits
63%
Hits
2+ hits
23%
Total Bases
2+ bases
37%
Total Bases
3+ bases
21%
Total Bases
4+ bases
14%
RBIs
1+ RBI
28%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
10%
THE READ
Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 63% against 70%.
- Batting 8 · bats S
- Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
- Facing Chase Burns
Petey Halpin
CLE · slot 9
Home Run
1+ HR
12%
Hits
1+ hits
63%
Hits
2+ hits
22%
Total Bases
2+ bases
37%
Total Bases
3+ bases
22%
Total Bases
4+ bases
15%
RBIs
1+ RBI
27%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
11%
THE READ
Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 63% against 70%.
- Batting 9
- Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
- Facing Chase Burns
TJ Friedl
CIN · bats L · slot 9
Home Run
1+ HR
8%
Hits
1+ hits
58%
Hits
2+ hits
19%
Total Bases
2+ bases
29%
Total Bases
3+ bases
15%
Total Bases
4+ bases
10%
RBIs
1+ RBI
26%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
9%
THE READ
Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 58% against 70%.
- Batting 9 · bats L
- Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
- Facing Slade Cecconi
III · METHODOLOGY
How this read was built.
- Simulation. 5,000 Monte Carlo trials of this game using real play-by-play data, confirmed lineups, pitcher quality, bullpen depth, defensive runs saved, catcher framing, umpire K-zones, and per-batter rates regressed with empirical Bayes.
- What the number means. The share of those 5,000 trials in which the outcome happened — the model's own estimate, not a claim that a sportsbook has mispriced it. We publish it next to the reasoning that produced it and let the settlement record below speak for itself.
- Settlement. Every read on this page is graded by Kalshi's own settlement market once the game ends. The post-game version of this page shows what was confirmed and what was missed.
DISCLOSURE
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