AI MODEL READ

SETTLED

CHC vs STL

Chicago Cubs at St. Louis Cardinals

Monday, July 27, 2026

SIMULATION · ONE TRIAL, EVERY MARKET

Watch the model run this game.

One representative trial from the CHC @ STL simulation — real per-AB batter, outcome, and score progression from the spine. Every game-level market updates in lock-step with each play.

CHICAGOCHC

0·0

ST. LOUISSTL

TOP 10-11 OUT

FIELD

PITCH SEQUENCE

CHC Leadoff (R) vs HP

FB94.4

CV78.9

FB95

CV76.7

CH83.7

OUTCOME DISTRIBUTION

CHC Leadoff in this spot

HIT

24%

OUT

55%

BATTER PROPS · CHC LEADOFF

HR YES (O0.5)

12%

HITS O0.5

40%

TOTAL BASES O1.5

24%

PITCHER PROPS · HP

KS O5.5

55%

GAME MARKETS · LIVE

updating per event

MONEYLINE

STL to win

50%

TOTAL

Over 8.5

58%

RUN LINE

STL -1.5

45%

TEAM TOTAL STL

Over 4.5

52%

FIRST 5 INN

STL wins F5

51%

LAST PLAYCHC Leadoff at the plate · pitch 1 of 5

event 1 / 16 · pitching

Every card on the board is a live read. As the game changes, the math changes with it — every prop, every market line, in real time. Cards turn green when they hit, red when they miss.

I · GAME-LEVEL MODEL

Win probability + total.

GAME TOTAL

✗ MISSED

STL Over 4.5 runs

47%

5,000-TRIAL SIMULATION

vulnerable matchup · straight from our 5,000-trial sim · lineup is 15-for-32 (.469) with 2 HR vs. this starter, career · 95°F, 11mph wind

II · EVERY MARKET WE RAN

Swipe the whole board.

One card per hitter and pitcher, plus the game markets — the sim's own number on every line it priced, with the reasoning that produced it.

169 simulated lines · raw sim

1 / 21

CHC STL

Game Markets

CHC @ STL · full-game reads

7 MARKETS

Moneyline

STL to win

55%

1st 5 Innings

STL F5

48%

Game Total

Over 8.5

79%

1st 5 Total

Over 4.5

77%

Run Line

STL -1.5

42%

Team Total

CHC Over 4.5

64%

Team Total

STL Over 4.5

69%

THE READ

STL projects to outscore CHC by 0.43 runs across 5,000 trials.

Projected runs: CHC 6.26, STL 6.69
David Peterson (CHC) vs Matthew Liberatore (STL)
Run on confirmed lineups

David Peterson

CHC SP · vs. STL

Strikeouts

5+ Ks

32%

Strikeouts

6+ Ks

16%

Strikeouts

7+ Ks

Strikeouts

8+ Ks

Strikeouts

9+ Ks

Outs Recorded

15+ outs

87%

Outs Recorded

18+ outs

58%

Hits Allowed

5+ hits

83%

Hits Allowed

6+ hits

73%

THE READ

Low-strikeout projection at 3.7 Ks — the ladder thins out fast above the first rung.

Sim projects 3.7 strikeouts
32% to reach 5+ against STL

Matthew Liberatore

STL SP · vs. CHC

Strikeouts

5+ Ks

51%

Strikeouts

6+ Ks

30%

Strikeouts

7+ Ks

16%

Strikeouts

8+ Ks

Strikeouts

9+ Ks

Outs Recorded

15+ outs

88%

Outs Recorded

18+ outs

19%

Hits Allowed

5+ hits

71%

Hits Allowed

6+ hits

58%

THE READ

Middle-of-the-road strikeout projection at 4.6 Ks.

Sim projects 4.6 strikeouts
51% to reach 5+ against CHC

Seiya Suzuki

CHC · bats R · slot 2

Home Run

1+ HR

32%

Hits

1+ hits

81%

Hits

2+ hits

45%

Total Bases

2+ bases

63%

Total Bases

3+ bases

47%

Total Bases

4+ bases

39%

RBIs

1+ RBI

50%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

27%

THE READ

Stands out most on 1+ HR — 32% against 18% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

Batting 2 · bats R
Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
Facing Matthew Liberatore

Pete Crow-Armstrong

CHC · bats L · slot 1

Home Run

1+ HR

28%

Hits

1+ hits

82%

Hits

2+ hits

45%

Total Bases

2+ bases

62%

Total Bases

3+ bases

46%

Total Bases

4+ bases

37%

RBIs

1+ RBI

47%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

23%

THE READ

Stands out most on 1+ HR — 28% against 18% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

Batting 1 · bats L
Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
Facing Matthew Liberatore

Jordan Walker

STL · bats R · slot 2

Home Run

1+ HR

28%

Hits

1+ hits

83%

Hits

2+ hits

46%

Total Bases

2+ bases

63%

Total Bases

3+ bases

46%

Total Bases

4+ bases

36%

RBIs

1+ RBI

50%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

25%

THE READ

Stands out most on 1+ HR — 28% against 18% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

Batting 2 · bats R
Facing David Peterson

Alec Burleson

STL · bats L · slot 4

Home Run

1+ HR

20%

Hits

1+ hits

79%

Hits

2+ hits

42%

Total Bases

2+ bases

57%

Total Bases

3+ bases

39%

Total Bases

4+ bases

29%

RBIs

1+ RBI

49%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

25%

THE READ

Stands out most on 2+ RBIs — 25% against 19% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

Batting 4 · bats L
Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
Facing David Peterson

Nelson Velázquez

STL · bats R · slot 6

Home Run

1+ HR

22%

Hits

1+ hits

76%

Hits

2+ hits

37%

Total Bases

2+ bases

53%

Total Bases

3+ bases

36%

Total Bases

4+ bases

28%

RBIs

1+ RBI

45%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

22%

THE READ

Stands out most on 1+ HR — 22% against 18% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

Batting 6 · bats R
Cold on results, but hitting the ball well
Facing David Peterson

Iván Herrera

STL · bats R · slot 3

Home Run

1+ HR

21%

Hits

1+ hits

77%

Hits

2+ hits

39%

Total Bases

2+ bases

55%

Total Bases

3+ bases

38%

Total Bases

4+ bases

28%

RBIs

1+ RBI

46%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

22%

THE READ

Stands out most on 2+ RBIs — 22% against 19% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

Batting 3 · bats R
Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
Facing David Peterson

JJ Wetherholt

STL · bats L · slot 1

Home Run

1+ HR

18%

Hits

1+ hits

78%

Hits

2+ hits

41%

Total Bases

2+ bases

55%

Total Bases

3+ bases

36%

Total Bases

4+ bases

26%

RBIs

1+ RBI

40%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

17%

THE READ

Stands out most on 2+ hits — 41% against 35% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

Batting 1 · bats L
Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
Facing David Peterson

Dansby Swanson

CHC · bats R · slot 8

Home Run

1+ HR

20%

Hits

1+ hits

69%

Hits

2+ hits

29%

Total Bases

2+ bases

46%

Total Bases

3+ bases

31%

Total Bases

4+ bases

24%

RBIs

1+ RBI

38%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

17%

THE READ

Stands out most on 1+ HR — 20% against 18% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

Batting 8 · bats R
Facing Matthew Liberatore

Michael Busch

CHC · bats L · slot 5

Home Run

1+ HR

19%

Hits

1+ hits

74%

Hits

2+ hits

34%

Total Bases

2+ bases

51%

Total Bases

3+ bases

34%

Total Bases

4+ bases

25%

RBIs

1+ RBI

42%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

20%

THE READ

Stands out most on 2+ RBIs — 20% against 19% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

Batting 5 · bats L
Facing Matthew Liberatore

Carson Kelly

CHC · bats R · slot 4

Home Run

1+ HR

18%

Hits

1+ hits

74%

Hits

2+ hits

35%

Total Bases

2+ bases

51%

Total Bases

3+ bases

33%

Total Bases

4+ bases

25%

RBIs

1+ RBI

44%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

20%

THE READ

Stands out most on 2+ RBIs — 20% against 19% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

Batting 4 · bats R
Facing Matthew Liberatore

Ian Happ

CHC · bats S · slot 7

Home Run

1+ HR

19%

Hits

1+ hits

69%

Hits

2+ hits

28%

Total Bases

2+ bases

48%

Total Bases

3+ bases

31%

Total Bases

4+ bases

24%

RBIs

1+ RBI

39%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

17%

THE READ

Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 69%.

Batting 7 · bats S
Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
Facing Matthew Liberatore

Lars Nootbaar

STL · bats L · slot 8

Home Run

1+ HR

16%

Hits

1+ hits

75%

Hits

2+ hits

34%

Total Bases

2+ bases

51%

Total Bases

3+ bases

33%

Total Bases

4+ bases

22%

RBIs

1+ RBI

41%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

19%

THE READ

Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 75%.

Batting 8 · bats L
Facing David Peterson

Masyn Winn

STL · bats R · slot 5

Home Run

1+ HR

Hits

1+ hits

73%

Hits

2+ hits

34%

Total Bases

2+ bases

45%

Total Bases

3+ bases

27%

Total Bases

4+ bases

17%

RBIs

1+ RBI

39%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

15%

THE READ

Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 73%.

Batting 5 · bats R
Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
Facing David Peterson

José Fermín

STL · bats R · slot 7

Home Run

1+ HR

12%

Hits

1+ hits

71%

Hits

2+ hits

32%

Total Bases

2+ bases

44%

Total Bases

3+ bases

26%

Total Bases

4+ bases

17%

RBIs

1+ RBI

36%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

15%

THE READ

Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 71%.

Batting 7 · bats R
Facing David Peterson

Alex Bregman

CHC · bats R · slot 3

Home Run

1+ HR

12%

Hits

1+ hits

70%

Hits

2+ hits

31%

Total Bases

2+ bases

45%

Total Bases

3+ bases

26%

Total Bases

4+ bases

18%

RBIs

1+ RBI

35%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

14%

THE READ

Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 70% against 74%.

Batting 3 · bats R
Facing Matthew Liberatore

Blaze Jordan

STL · bats R · slot 9

Home Run

1+ HR

Hits

1+ hits

69%

Hits

2+ hits

29%

Total Bases

2+ bases

41%

Total Bases

3+ bases

22%

Total Bases

4+ bases

14%

RBIs

1+ RBI

35%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

13%

THE READ

Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 69% against 74%.

Batting 9 · bats R
Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
Facing David Peterson

Nico Hoerner

CHC · bats R · slot 6

Home Run

1+ HR

Hits

1+ hits

67%

Hits

2+ hits

28%

Total Bases

2+ bases

38%

Total Bases

3+ bases

19%

Total Bases

4+ bases

12%

RBIs

1+ RBI

32%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

12%

THE READ

Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 67% against 74%.

Batting 6 · bats R
Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
Facing Matthew Liberatore

Miguel Amaya

CHC · bats R · slot 9

Home Run

1+ HR

11%

Hits

1+ hits

66%

Hits

2+ hits

26%

Total Bases

2+ bases

40%

Total Bases

3+ bases

22%

Total Bases

4+ bases

15%

RBIs

1+ RBI

30%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

11%

THE READ

Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 66% against 74%.

Batting 9 · bats R
Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
Facing Matthew Liberatore

III · METHODOLOGY

How this read was built.

Simulation. 5,000 Monte Carlo trials of this game using real play-by-play data, confirmed lineups, pitcher quality, bullpen depth, defensive runs saved, catcher framing, umpire K-zones, and per-batter rates regressed with empirical Bayes.
What the number means. The share of those 5,000 trials in which the outcome happened — the model's own estimate, not a claim that a sportsbook has mispriced it. We publish it next to the reasoning that produced it and let the settlement record below speak for itself.
Settlement. Every read on this page is graded by Kalshi's own settlement market once the game ends. The post-game version of this page shows what was confirmed and what was missed.

DISCLOSURE

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