AI MODEL READ
SETTLEDBAL vs DET
Baltimore Orioles at Detroit Tigers
Monday, July 27, 2026
SIMULATION · ONE TRIAL, EVERY MARKET
Watch the model run this game.
One representative trial from the BAL @ DET simulation — real per-AB batter, outcome, and score progression from the spine. Every game-level market updates in lock-step with each play.
FIELD
PITCH SEQUENCE
BAL Leadoff (R) vs HP
OUTCOME DISTRIBUTION
BAL Leadoff in this spot
BATTER PROPS · BAL LEADOFF
PITCHER PROPS · HP
GAME MARKETS · LIVE
updating per event
MONEYLINE
DET to win
TOTAL
Over 8.5
RUN LINE
DET -1.5
TEAM TOTAL DET
Over 4.5
FIRST 5 INN
DET wins F5
event 1 / 21 · pitching
Every card on the board is a live read. As the game changes, the math changes with it — every prop, every market line, in real time. Cards turn green when they hit, red when they miss.
I · GAME-LEVEL MODEL
Win probability + total.
GAME WINNER
✓ CONFIRMEDBaltimore vs Detroit Winner?
5,000-TRIAL SIMULATION
II · EVERY MARKET WE RAN
Swipe the whole board.
One card per hitter and pitcher, plus the game markets — the sim's own number on every line it priced, with the reasoning that produced it.
169 simulated lines · raw sim
1 / 21
Game Markets
BAL @ DET · full-game reads
Moneyline
DET to win
55%
1st 5 Innings
DET F5
49%
Game Total
Over 8.5
51%
1st 5 Total
Over 4.5
52%
Run Line
DET -1.5
40%
Team Total
BAL Over 4.5
42%
Team Total
DET Over 4.5
47%
THE READ
DET projects to outscore BAL by 0.26 runs across 5,000 trials.
- Projected runs: BAL 4.35, DET 4.62
- Dean Kremer (BAL) vs Troy Melton (DET)
- Run on league-average lineups — refreshes when lineups post
Dean Kremer
BAL SP · vs. DET
Strikeouts
5+ Ks
72%
Strikeouts
6+ Ks
54%
Strikeouts
7+ Ks
37%
Strikeouts
8+ Ks
21%
Strikeouts
9+ Ks
11%
Outs Recorded
15+ outs
95%
Outs Recorded
18+ outs
67%
Hits Allowed
5+ hits
68%
Hits Allowed
6+ hits
56%
THE READ
Middle-of-the-road strikeout projection at 5.8 Ks.
- Sim projects 5.8 strikeouts
- 72% to reach 5+ against DET
Troy Melton
DET SP · vs. BAL
Strikeouts
5+ Ks
55%
Strikeouts
6+ Ks
36%
Strikeouts
7+ Ks
19%
Strikeouts
8+ Ks
9%
Strikeouts
9+ Ks
3%
Outs Recorded
15+ outs
99%
Outs Recorded
18+ outs
71%
Hits Allowed
5+ hits
67%
Hits Allowed
6+ hits
51%
THE READ
Middle-of-the-road strikeout projection at 4.8 Ks.
- Sim projects 4.8 strikeouts
- 55% to reach 5+ against BAL
Dillon Dingler
DET · bats R · slot 2
Home Run
1+ HR
26%
Hits
1+ hits
73%
Hits
2+ hits
33%
Total Bases
2+ bases
53%
Total Bases
3+ bases
38%
Total Bases
4+ bases
30%
RBIs
1+ RBI
41%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
19%
THE READ
Stands out most on 1+ HR — 26% against 13% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 2 · bats R
- Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
- Facing Dean Kremer
Pete Alonso
BAL · bats R · slot 2
Home Run
1+ HR
23%
Hits
1+ hits
75%
Hits
2+ hits
36%
Total Bases
2+ bases
53%
Total Bases
3+ bases
38%
Total Bases
4+ bases
29%
RBIs
1+ RBI
40%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
19%
THE READ
Stands out most on 1+ HR — 23% against 13% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 2 · bats R
- Facing Troy Melton
Spencer Torkelson
DET · bats R · slot 5
Home Run
1+ HR
22%
Hits
1+ hits
64%
Hits
2+ hits
23%
Total Bases
2+ bases
44%
Total Bases
3+ bases
30%
Total Bases
4+ bases
25%
RBIs
1+ RBI
38%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
18%
THE READ
Stands out most on 1+ HR — 22% against 13% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 5 · bats R
- Facing Dean Kremer
Riley Greene
DET · bats L · slot 4
Home Run
1+ HR
20%
Hits
1+ hits
72%
Hits
2+ hits
32%
Total Bases
2+ bases
50%
Total Bases
3+ bases
34%
Total Bases
4+ bases
26%
RBIs
1+ RBI
40%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
18%
THE READ
Stands out most on 1+ HR — 20% against 13% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 4 · bats L
- Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
- Facing Dean Kremer
Dylan Beavers
BAL · bats L · slot 1
Home Run
1+ HR
10%
Hits
1+ hits
73%
Hits
2+ hits
35%
Total Bases
2+ bases
48%
Total Bases
3+ bases
28%
Total Bases
4+ bases
17%
RBIs
1+ RBI
28%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
9%
THE READ
Stands out most on 2+ hits — 35% against 26% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 1 · bats L
- Facing Troy Melton
Taylor Ward
BAL · bats R · slot 4
Home Run
1+ HR
9%
Hits
1+ hits
72%
Hits
2+ hits
31%
Total Bases
2+ bases
46%
Total Bases
3+ bases
26%
Total Bases
4+ bases
16%
RBIs
1+ RBI
33%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
12%
THE READ
Stands out most on 2+ hits — 31% against 26% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 4 · bats R
- Facing Troy Melton
Coby Mayo
BAL · bats R · slot 7
Home Run
1+ HR
14%
Hits
1+ hits
68%
Hits
2+ hits
27%
Total Bases
2+ bases
44%
Total Bases
3+ bases
27%
Total Bases
4+ bases
18%
RBIs
1+ RBI
34%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
14%
THE READ
Stands out most on 2+ RBIs — 14% against 12% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 7 · bats R
- Facing Troy Melton
Jackson Holliday
BAL · bats L · slot 6
Home Run
1+ HR
13%
Hits
1+ hits
68%
Hits
2+ hits
28%
Total Bases
2+ bases
43%
Total Bases
3+ bases
26%
Total Bases
4+ bases
18%
RBIs
1+ RBI
34%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
14%
THE READ
Stands out most on 2+ RBIs — 14% against 12% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 6 · bats L
- Facing Troy Melton
Gunnar Henderson
BAL · bats L · slot 3
Home Run
1+ HR
15%
Hits
1+ hits
68%
Hits
2+ hits
28%
Total Bases
2+ bases
43%
Total Bases
3+ bases
27%
Total Bases
4+ bases
20%
RBIs
1+ RBI
34%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
14%
THE READ
Stands out most on 1+ HR — 15% against 13% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 3 · bats L
- Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
- Facing Troy Melton
Kevin McGonigle
DET · bats L · slot 1
Home Run
1+ HR
12%
Hits
1+ hits
69%
Hits
2+ hits
29%
Total Bases
2+ bases
44%
Total Bases
3+ bases
27%
Total Bases
4+ bases
18%
RBIs
1+ RBI
27%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
9%
THE READ
Stands out most on 2+ hits — 29% against 26% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 1 · bats L
- Facing Dean Kremer
Leody Taveras
BAL · bats S · slot 5
Home Run
1+ HR
8%
Hits
1+ hits
67%
Hits
2+ hits
29%
Total Bases
2+ bases
41%
Total Bases
3+ bases
22%
Total Bases
4+ bases
14%
RBIs
1+ RBI
32%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
11%
THE READ
Stands out most on 2+ hits — 29% against 26% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 5 · bats S
- Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
- Facing Troy Melton
Hao-Yu Lee
DET · bats R · slot 7
Home Run
1+ HR
13%
Hits
1+ hits
64%
Hits
2+ hits
23%
Total Bases
2+ bases
39%
Total Bases
3+ bases
22%
Total Bases
4+ bases
16%
RBIs
1+ RBI
29%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
13%
THE READ
Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 64%.
- Batting 7 · bats R
- Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
- Facing Dean Kremer
Colt Keith
DET · bats L · slot 3
Home Run
1+ HR
11%
Hits
1+ hits
66%
Hits
2+ hits
25%
Total Bases
2+ bases
39%
Total Bases
3+ bases
23%
Total Bases
4+ bases
15%
RBIs
1+ RBI
30%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
11%
THE READ
Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 66%.
- Batting 3 · bats L
- Facing Dean Kremer
James Outman
DET · bats L · slot 8
Home Run
1+ HR
13%
Hits
1+ hits
58%
Hits
2+ hits
19%
Total Bases
2+ bases
36%
Total Bases
3+ bases
21%
Total Bases
4+ bases
16%
RBIs
1+ RBI
28%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
11%
THE READ
Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 58%.
- Batting 8 · bats L
- Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
- Facing Dean Kremer
Jeremiah Jackson
BAL · bats R · slot 8
Home Run
1+ HR
11%
Hits
1+ hits
64%
Hits
2+ hits
23%
Total Bases
2+ bases
37%
Total Bases
3+ bases
21%
Total Bases
4+ bases
14%
RBIs
1+ RBI
30%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
11%
THE READ
Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 64%.
- Batting 8 · bats R
- Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
- Facing Troy Melton
Chadwick Tromp
BAL · slot 9
Home Run
1+ HR
7%
Hits
1+ hits
62%
Hits
2+ hits
22%
Total Bases
2+ bases
33%
Total Bases
3+ bases
17%
Total Bases
4+ bases
10%
RBIs
1+ RBI
24%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
8%
THE READ
Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 62% against 66%.
- Batting 9
- Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
- Facing Troy Melton
Zach McKinstry
DET · bats L · slot 6
Home Run
1+ HR
8%
Hits
1+ hits
57%
Hits
2+ hits
18%
Total Bases
2+ bases
30%
Total Bases
3+ bases
16%
Total Bases
4+ bases
10%
RBIs
1+ RBI
24%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
8%
THE READ
Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 57% against 66%.
- Batting 6 · bats L
- Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
- Facing Dean Kremer
Matt Vierling
DET · bats R · slot 9
Home Run
1+ HR
7%
Hits
1+ hits
54%
Hits
2+ hits
15%
Total Bases
2+ bases
27%
Total Bases
3+ bases
14%
Total Bases
4+ bases
9%
RBIs
1+ RBI
22%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
7%
THE READ
Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 54% against 66%.
- Batting 9 · bats R
- Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
- Facing Dean Kremer
III · METHODOLOGY
How this read was built.
- Simulation. 5,000 Monte Carlo trials of this game using real play-by-play data, confirmed lineups, pitcher quality, bullpen depth, defensive runs saved, catcher framing, umpire K-zones, and per-batter rates regressed with empirical Bayes.
- What the number means. The share of those 5,000 trials in which the outcome happened — the model's own estimate, not a claim that a sportsbook has mispriced it. We publish it next to the reasoning that produced it and let the settlement record below speak for itself.
- Settlement. Every read on this page is graded by Kalshi's own settlement market once the game ends. The post-game version of this page shows what was confirmed and what was missed.
DISCLOSURE
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