AI MODEL READ
SETTLEDATL vs NYM
Atlanta Braves at New York Mets
Monday, July 27, 2026
SIMULATION · ONE TRIAL, EVERY MARKET
Watch the model run this game.
One representative trial from the ATL @ NYM simulation — real per-AB batter, outcome, and score progression from the spine. Every game-level market updates in lock-step with each play.
FIELD
PITCH SEQUENCE
ATL Leadoff (R) vs HP
OUTCOME DISTRIBUTION
ATL Leadoff in this spot
BATTER PROPS · ATL LEADOFF
PITCHER PROPS · HP
GAME MARKETS · LIVE
updating per event
MONEYLINE
NYM to win
TOTAL
Over 8.5
RUN LINE
NYM -1.5
TEAM TOTAL NYM
Over 4.5
FIRST 5 INN
NYM wins F5
event 1 / 17 · pitching
Every card on the board is a live read. As the game changes, the math changes with it — every prop, every market line, in real time. Cards turn green when they hit, red when they miss.
I · GAME-LEVEL MODEL
Win probability + total.
GAME WINNER
✗ MISSEDAtlanta vs New York M Winner?
5,000-TRIAL SIMULATION
II · EVERY MARKET WE RAN
Swipe the whole board.
One card per hitter and pitcher, plus the game markets — the sim's own number on every line it priced, with the reasoning that produced it.
169 simulated lines · raw sim
1 / 21
Game Markets
ATL @ NYM · full-game reads
Moneyline
ATL to win
61%
1st 5 Innings
NYM F5
31%
Game Total
Over 8.5
36%
1st 5 Total
Over 4.5
36%
Run Line
NYM -1.5
24%
Team Total
ATL Over 4.5
43%
Team Total
NYM Over 4.5
25%
THE READ
ATL projects to outscore NYM by 1.23 runs across 5,000 trials.
- Projected runs: ATL 4.37, NYM 3.14
- Chris Sale (ATL) vs Christian Scott (NYM)
- Run on league-average lineups — refreshes when lineups post
Chris Sale
ATL SP · vs. NYM
Strikeouts
5+ Ks
81%
Strikeouts
6+ Ks
67%
Strikeouts
7+ Ks
51%
Strikeouts
8+ Ks
37%
Strikeouts
9+ Ks
25%
Outs Recorded
15+ outs
60%
Outs Recorded
18+ outs
32%
Hits Allowed
5+ hits
33%
Hits Allowed
6+ hits
22%
THE READ
Strikeout-heavy projection — the sim has him at 6.8 Ks, with the ladder still live into the 8+ rung.
- Sim projects 6.8 strikeouts
- 81% to reach 5+ against NYM
Christian Scott
NYM SP · vs. ATL
Strikeouts
5+ Ks
62%
Strikeouts
6+ Ks
43%
Strikeouts
7+ Ks
24%
Strikeouts
8+ Ks
12%
Strikeouts
9+ Ks
5%
Outs Recorded
15+ outs
44%
Outs Recorded
18+ outs
6%
Hits Allowed
5+ hits
40%
Hits Allowed
6+ hits
26%
THE READ
Middle-of-the-road strikeout projection at 5.2 Ks.
- Sim projects 5.2 strikeouts
- 62% to reach 5+ against ATL
Matt Olson
ATL · bats L · slot 3
Home Run
1+ HR
30%
Hits
1+ hits
80%
Hits
2+ hits
44%
Total Bases
2+ bases
61%
Total Bases
3+ bases
46%
Total Bases
4+ bases
37%
RBIs
1+ RBI
50%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
27%
THE READ
Stands out most on 1+ HR — 30% against 17% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 3 · bats L
- Facing Christian Scott
Drake Baldwin
ATL · bats L · slot 2
Home Run
1+ HR
30%
Hits
1+ hits
81%
Hits
2+ hits
45%
Total Bases
2+ bases
63%
Total Bases
3+ bases
47%
Total Bases
4+ bases
38%
RBIs
1+ RBI
48%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
25%
THE READ
Stands out most on 1+ HR — 30% against 17% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 2 · bats L
- Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
- Facing Christian Scott
Michael Harris II
ATL · bats L · slot 5
Home Run
1+ HR
25%
Hits
1+ hits
81%
Hits
2+ hits
45%
Total Bases
2+ bases
62%
Total Bases
3+ bases
45%
Total Bases
4+ bases
34%
RBIs
1+ RBI
49%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
24%
THE READ
Stands out most on 4+ bases — 34% against 23% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 5 · bats L
- Facing Christian Scott
Francisco Alvarez
NYM · bats R · slot 5
Home Run
1+ HR
21%
Hits
1+ hits
71%
Hits
2+ hits
31%
Total Bases
2+ bases
49%
Total Bases
3+ bases
33%
Total Bases
4+ bases
26%
RBIs
1+ RBI
41%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
19%
THE READ
Stands out most on 1+ HR — 21% against 17% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 5 · bats R
- Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
- Facing Chris Sale
Luis Robert Jr.
NYM · slot 4
Home Run
1+ HR
20%
Hits
1+ hits
72%
Hits
2+ hits
32%
Total Bases
2+ bases
49%
Total Bases
3+ bases
34%
Total Bases
4+ bases
25%
RBIs
1+ RBI
41%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
19%
THE READ
Stands out most on 1+ HR — 20% against 17% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 4
- Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
- Facing Chris Sale
Ronald Acuña Jr.
ATL · slot 1
Home Run
1+ HR
15%
Hits
1+ hits
75%
Hits
2+ hits
37%
Total Bases
2+ bases
50%
Total Bases
3+ bases
32%
Total Bases
4+ bases
22%
RBIs
1+ RBI
35%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
14%
THE READ
Stands out most on 2+ hits — 37% against 33% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 1
- Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
- Facing Christian Scott
A.J. Ewing
NYM · bats L · slot 1
Home Run
1+ HR
17%
Hits
1+ hits
74%
Hits
2+ hits
36%
Total Bases
2+ bases
51%
Total Bases
3+ bases
34%
Total Bases
4+ bases
24%
RBIs
1+ RBI
35%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
14%
THE READ
Stands out most on 2+ hits — 36% against 33% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 1 · bats L
- Facing Chris Sale
Jared Young
NYM · bats L · slot 6
Home Run
1+ HR
19%
Hits
1+ hits
70%
Hits
2+ hits
29%
Total Bases
2+ bases
47%
Total Bases
3+ bases
30%
Total Bases
4+ bases
23%
RBIs
1+ RBI
38%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
16%
THE READ
Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 70%.
- Batting 6 · bats L
- Facing Chris Sale
Ozzie Albies
ATL · bats S · slot 4
Home Run
1+ HR
15%
Hits
1+ hits
73%
Hits
2+ hits
35%
Total Bases
2+ bases
48%
Total Bases
3+ bases
29%
Total Bases
4+ bases
21%
RBIs
1+ RBI
39%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
17%
THE READ
Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 73%.
- Batting 4 · bats S
- Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
- Facing Christian Scott
Tyrone Taylor
NYM · bats R · slot 7
Home Run
1+ HR
18%
Hits
1+ hits
67%
Hits
2+ hits
28%
Total Bases
2+ bases
44%
Total Bases
3+ bases
29%
Total Bases
4+ bases
22%
RBIs
1+ RBI
35%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
16%
THE READ
Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 67%.
- Batting 7 · bats R
- Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
- Facing Chris Sale
Francisco Lindor
NYM · bats S · slot 2
Home Run
1+ HR
17%
Hits
1+ hits
72%
Hits
2+ hits
33%
Total Bases
2+ bases
48%
Total Bases
3+ bases
32%
Total Bases
4+ bases
23%
RBIs
1+ RBI
35%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
15%
THE READ
Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 72%.
- Batting 2 · bats S
- Facing Chris Sale
Jim Jarvis
ATL · bats L · slot 9
Home Run
1+ HR
13%
Hits
1+ hits
72%
Hits
2+ hits
33%
Total Bases
2+ bases
48%
Total Bases
3+ bases
30%
Total Bases
4+ bases
20%
RBIs
1+ RBI
35%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
14%
THE READ
Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 72%.
- Batting 9 · bats L
- Facing Christian Scott
Bo Bichette
NYM · bats R · slot 3
Home Run
1+ HR
13%
Hits
1+ hits
71%
Hits
2+ hits
31%
Total Bases
2+ bases
45%
Total Bases
3+ bases
27%
Total Bases
4+ bases
18%
RBIs
1+ RBI
35%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
14%
THE READ
Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 71%.
- Batting 3 · bats R
- Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
- Facing Chris Sale
Joey Bart
ATL · bats R · slot 8
Home Run
1+ HR
14%
Hits
1+ hits
70%
Hits
2+ hits
29%
Total Bases
2+ bases
43%
Total Bases
3+ bases
26%
Total Bases
4+ bases
18%
RBIs
1+ RBI
33%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
13%
THE READ
Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 70%.
- Batting 8 · bats R
- Facing Christian Scott
Mauricio Dubón
ATL · bats R · slot 6
Home Run
1+ HR
9%
Hits
1+ hits
70%
Hits
2+ hits
31%
Total Bases
2+ bases
41%
Total Bases
3+ bases
23%
Total Bases
4+ bases
14%
RBIs
1+ RBI
31%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
11%
THE READ
Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 70%.
- Batting 6 · bats R
- Facing Christian Scott
Austin Riley
ATL · bats R · slot 7
Home Run
1+ HR
13%
Hits
1+ hits
68%
Hits
2+ hits
28%
Total Bases
2+ bases
43%
Total Bases
3+ bases
26%
Total Bases
4+ bases
18%
RBIs
1+ RBI
34%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
13%
THE READ
Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 68% against 72%.
- Batting 7 · bats R
- Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
- Facing Christian Scott
Marcus Semien
NYM · slot 8
Home Run
1+ HR
15%
Hits
1+ hits
62%
Hits
2+ hits
22%
Total Bases
2+ bases
39%
Total Bases
3+ bases
23%
Total Bases
4+ bases
18%
RBIs
1+ RBI
33%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
13%
THE READ
Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ RBI at 33% against 37%.
- Batting 8
- Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
- Facing Chris Sale
Luis Torrens
NYM · bats R · slot 9
Home Run
1+ HR
9%
Hits
1+ hits
62%
Hits
2+ hits
22%
Total Bases
2+ bases
36%
Total Bases
3+ bases
20%
Total Bases
4+ bases
12%
RBIs
1+ RBI
27%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
9%
THE READ
Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 62% against 72%.
- Batting 9 · bats R
- Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
- Facing Chris Sale
III · METHODOLOGY
How this read was built.
- Simulation. 5,000 Monte Carlo trials of this game using real play-by-play data, confirmed lineups, pitcher quality, bullpen depth, defensive runs saved, catcher framing, umpire K-zones, and per-batter rates regressed with empirical Bayes.
- What the number means. The share of those 5,000 trials in which the outcome happened — the model's own estimate, not a claim that a sportsbook has mispriced it. We publish it next to the reasoning that produced it and let the settlement record below speak for itself.
- Settlement. Every read on this page is graded by Kalshi's own settlement market once the game ends. The post-game version of this page shows what was confirmed and what was missed.
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