AI MODEL READ
SETTLEDTOR vs BOS
Toronto Blue Jays at Boston Red Sox
Sunday, July 26, 2026
SIMULATION · ONE TRIAL, EVERY MARKET
Watch the model run this game.
One representative trial from the TOR @ BOS simulation — real per-AB batter, outcome, and score progression from the spine. Every game-level market updates in lock-step with each play.
FIELD
PITCH SEQUENCE
TOR Leadoff (R) vs HP
OUTCOME DISTRIBUTION
TOR Leadoff in this spot
BATTER PROPS · TOR LEADOFF
PITCHER PROPS · HP
GAME MARKETS · LIVE
updating per event
MONEYLINE
BOS to win
TOTAL
Over 8.5
RUN LINE
BOS -1.5
TEAM TOTAL BOS
Over 4.5
FIRST 5 INN
BOS wins F5
event 1 / 17 · pitching
Every card on the board is a live read. As the game changes, the math changes with it — every prop, every market line, in real time. Cards turn green when they hit, red when they miss.
I · GAME-LEVEL MODEL
Win probability + total.
GAME WINNER
✗ MISSEDToronto vs Boston Winner?
5,000-TRIAL SIMULATION
our sim and the sharpest books agree
II · EVERY MARKET WE RAN
Swipe the whole board.
One card per hitter and pitcher, plus the game markets — the sim's own number on every line it priced, with the reasoning that produced it.
169 simulated lines · raw sim
1 / 21
Game Markets
TOR @ BOS · full-game reads
Moneyline
TOR to win
49%
1st 5 Innings
BOS F5
42%
Game Total
Over 8.5
49%
1st 5 Total
Over 4.5
50%
Run Line
BOS -1.5
37%
Team Total
TOR Over 4.5
43%
Team Total
BOS Over 4.5
42%
THE READ
The sim splits this one — 8.72 total runs with under a quarter-run between the sides.
- Projected runs: TOR 4.37, BOS 4.35
- Kevin Gausman (TOR) vs Ranger Suarez (BOS)
- Run on confirmed lineups
Kevin Gausman
TOR SP · vs. BOS
Strikeouts
5+ Ks
68%
Strikeouts
6+ Ks
52%
Strikeouts
7+ Ks
35%
Strikeouts
8+ Ks
20%
Strikeouts
9+ Ks
11%
Outs Recorded
15+ outs
77%
Outs Recorded
18+ outs
40%
Hits Allowed
5+ hits
56%
Hits Allowed
6+ hits
43%
THE READ
Middle-of-the-road strikeout projection at 5.7 Ks.
- Sim projects 5.7 strikeouts
- 68% to reach 5+ against BOS
Ranger Suarez
BOS SP · vs. TOR
Strikeouts
5+ Ks
48%
Strikeouts
6+ Ks
30%
Strikeouts
7+ Ks
16%
Strikeouts
8+ Ks
7%
Strikeouts
9+ Ks
3%
Outs Recorded
15+ outs
58%
Outs Recorded
18+ outs
20%
Hits Allowed
5+ hits
53%
Hits Allowed
6+ hits
40%
THE READ
Middle-of-the-road strikeout projection at 4.5 Ks.
- Sim projects 4.5 strikeouts
- 48% to reach 5+ against TOR
Willson Contreras
BOS · bats R · slot 4
Home Run
1+ HR
25%
Hits
1+ hits
73%
Hits
2+ hits
32%
Total Bases
2+ bases
52%
Total Bases
3+ bases
37%
Total Bases
4+ bases
29%
RBIs
1+ RBI
43%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
21%
THE READ
Stands out most on 1+ HR — 25% against 12% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 4 · bats R
- Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
- Facing Kevin Gausman
George Springer
TOR · slot 4
Home Run
1+ HR
17%
Hits
1+ hits
72%
Hits
2+ hits
33%
Total Bases
2+ bases
51%
Total Bases
3+ bases
33%
Total Bases
4+ bases
23%
RBIs
1+ RBI
40%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
18%
THE READ
Stands out most on 2+ RBIs — 18% against 12% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 4
- Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
- Facing Ranger Suarez
Wilyer Abreu
BOS · bats L · slot 3
Home Run
1+ HR
17%
Hits
1+ hits
68%
Hits
2+ hits
27%
Total Bases
2+ bases
45%
Total Bases
3+ bases
29%
Total Bases
4+ bases
22%
RBIs
1+ RBI
34%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
14%
THE READ
Stands out most on 1+ HR — 17% against 12% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 3 · bats L
- Facing Kevin Gausman
Kazuma Okamoto
TOR · bats R · slot 6
Home Run
1+ HR
16%
Hits
1+ hits
66%
Hits
2+ hits
26%
Total Bases
2+ bases
42%
Total Bases
3+ bases
26%
Total Bases
4+ bases
20%
RBIs
1+ RBI
34%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
15%
THE READ
Stands out most on 1+ HR — 16% against 12% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 6 · bats R
- Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
- Facing Ranger Suarez
Nathan Lukes
TOR · bats L · slot 1
Home Run
1+ HR
10%
Hits
1+ hits
74%
Hits
2+ hits
35%
Total Bases
2+ bases
47%
Total Bases
3+ bases
27%
Total Bases
4+ bases
17%
RBIs
1+ RBI
29%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
10%
THE READ
Stands out most on 2+ hits — 35% against 27% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 1 · bats L
- Facing Ranger Suarez
Vladimir Guerrero Jr.
TOR · bats R · slot 2
Home Run
1+ HR
11%
Hits
1+ hits
73%
Hits
2+ hits
34%
Total Bases
2+ bases
49%
Total Bases
3+ bases
30%
Total Bases
4+ bases
19%
RBIs
1+ RBI
32%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
12%
THE READ
Stands out most on 2+ hits — 34% against 27% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 2 · bats R
- Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
- Facing Ranger Suarez
Daulton Varsho
TOR · bats L · slot 5
Home Run
1+ HR
10%
Hits
1+ hits
69%
Hits
2+ hits
29%
Total Bases
2+ bases
43%
Total Bases
3+ bases
24%
Total Bases
4+ bases
16%
RBIs
1+ RBI
34%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
14%
THE READ
Stands out most on 2+ RBIs — 14% against 12% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 5 · bats L
- Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
- Facing Ranger Suarez
Ceddanne Rafaela
BOS · bats R · slot 2
Home Run
1+ HR
13%
Hits
1+ hits
72%
Hits
2+ hits
31%
Total Bases
2+ bases
45%
Total Bases
3+ bases
27%
Total Bases
4+ bases
18%
RBIs
1+ RBI
30%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
11%
THE READ
Stands out most on 2+ hits — 31% against 27% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 2 · bats R
- Facing Kevin Gausman
Masataka Yoshida
BOS · bats L · slot 1
Home Run
1+ HR
11%
Hits
1+ hits
69%
Hits
2+ hits
30%
Total Bases
2+ bases
43%
Total Bases
3+ bases
25%
Total Bases
4+ bases
17%
RBIs
1+ RBI
26%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
9%
THE READ
Stands out most on 2+ hits — 30% against 27% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 1 · bats L
- Facing Kevin Gausman
Romy Gonzalez
BOS · bats R · slot 6
Home Run
1+ HR
13%
Hits
1+ hits
67%
Hits
2+ hits
26%
Total Bases
2+ bases
43%
Total Bases
3+ bases
26%
Total Bases
4+ bases
17%
RBIs
1+ RBI
32%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
13%
THE READ
Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 67%.
- Batting 6 · bats R
- Facing Kevin Gausman
Alejandro Kirk
TOR · bats R · slot 3
Home Run
1+ HR
11%
Hits
1+ hits
69%
Hits
2+ hits
29%
Total Bases
2+ bases
41%
Total Bases
3+ bases
24%
Total Bases
4+ bases
15%
RBIs
1+ RBI
32%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
13%
THE READ
Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 69%.
- Batting 3 · bats R
- Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
- Facing Ranger Suarez
Jarren Duran
BOS · bats L · slot 7
Home Run
1+ HR
13%
Hits
1+ hits
57%
Hits
2+ hits
17%
Total Bases
2+ bases
32%
Total Bases
3+ bases
19%
Total Bases
4+ bases
15%
RBIs
1+ RBI
26%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
10%
THE READ
Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 57%.
- Batting 7 · bats L
- Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
- Facing Kevin Gausman
Ernie Clement
TOR · bats R · slot 7
Home Run
1+ HR
7%
Hits
1+ hits
68%
Hits
2+ hits
28%
Total Bases
2+ bases
38%
Total Bases
3+ bases
19%
Total Bases
4+ bases
11%
RBIs
1+ RBI
26%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
8%
THE READ
Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 68%.
- Batting 7 · bats R
- Facing Ranger Suarez
Caleb Durbin
BOS · bats R · slot 5
Home Run
1+ HR
12%
Hits
1+ hits
65%
Hits
2+ hits
25%
Total Bases
2+ bases
39%
Total Bases
3+ bases
23%
Total Bases
4+ bases
16%
RBIs
1+ RBI
31%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
11%
THE READ
Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 65%.
- Batting 5 · bats R
- Facing Kevin Gausman
Andruw Monasterio
BOS · bats R · slot 8
Home Run
1+ HR
12%
Hits
1+ hits
66%
Hits
2+ hits
25%
Total Bases
2+ bases
41%
Total Bases
3+ bases
24%
Total Bases
4+ bases
16%
RBIs
1+ RBI
29%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
10%
THE READ
Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 66%.
- Batting 8 · bats R
- Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
- Facing Kevin Gausman
Davis Schneider
TOR · slot 9
Home Run
1+ HR
10%
Hits
1+ hits
62%
Hits
2+ hits
21%
Total Bases
2+ bases
36%
Total Bases
3+ bases
20%
Total Bases
4+ bases
13%
RBIs
1+ RBI
27%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
10%
THE READ
Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 62% against 67%.
- Batting 9
- Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
- Facing Ranger Suarez
Andrés Giménez
TOR · bats L · slot 8
Home Run
1+ HR
7%
Hits
1+ hits
60%
Hits
2+ hits
22%
Total Bases
2+ bases
32%
Total Bases
3+ bases
16%
Total Bases
4+ bases
10%
RBIs
1+ RBI
25%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
8%
THE READ
Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 60% against 67%.
- Batting 8 · bats L
- Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
- Facing Ranger Suarez
Carlos Narváez
BOS · bats R · slot 9
Home Run
1+ HR
9%
Hits
1+ hits
56%
Hits
2+ hits
17%
Total Bases
2+ bases
30%
Total Bases
3+ bases
17%
Total Bases
4+ bases
11%
RBIs
1+ RBI
24%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
8%
THE READ
Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 56% against 67%.
- Batting 9 · bats R
- Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
- Facing Kevin Gausman
III · METHODOLOGY
How this read was built.
- Simulation. 5,000 Monte Carlo trials of this game using real play-by-play data, confirmed lineups, pitcher quality, bullpen depth, defensive runs saved, catcher framing, umpire K-zones, and per-batter rates regressed with empirical Bayes.
- What the number means. The share of those 5,000 trials in which the outcome happened — the model's own estimate, not a claim that a sportsbook has mispriced it. We publish it next to the reasoning that produced it and let the settlement record below speak for itself.
- Settlement. Every read on this page is graded by Kalshi's own settlement market once the game ends. The post-game version of this page shows what was confirmed and what was missed.
DISCLOSURE
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