AI MODEL READ
SETTLEDSEA vs TEX
Seattle Mariners at Texas Rangers
Sunday, July 26, 2026
SIMULATION · ONE TRIAL, EVERY MARKET
Watch the model run this game.
One representative trial from the SEA @ TEX simulation — real per-AB batter, outcome, and score progression from the spine. Every game-level market updates in lock-step with each play.
FIELD
PITCH SEQUENCE
SEA Leadoff (R) vs HP
OUTCOME DISTRIBUTION
SEA Leadoff in this spot
BATTER PROPS · SEA LEADOFF
PITCHER PROPS · HP
GAME MARKETS · LIVE
updating per event
MONEYLINE
TEX to win
TOTAL
Over 8.5
RUN LINE
TEX -1.5
TEAM TOTAL TEX
Over 4.5
FIRST 5 INN
TEX wins F5
event 1 / 17 · pitching
Every card on the board is a live read. As the game changes, the math changes with it — every prop, every market line, in real time. Cards turn green when they hit, red when they miss.
I · GAME-LEVEL MODEL
Win probability + total.
GAME WINNER
✗ MISSEDSeattle vs Texas Winner?
5,000-TRIAL SIMULATION
II · EVERY MARKET WE RAN
Swipe the whole board.
One card per hitter and pitcher, plus the game markets — the sim's own number on every line it priced, with the reasoning that produced it.
169 simulated lines · raw sim
1 / 21
Game Markets
SEA @ TEX · full-game reads
Moneyline
TEX to win
55%
1st 5 Innings
TEX F5
47%
Game Total
Over 8.5
42%
1st 5 Total
Over 4.5
38%
Run Line
TEX -1.5
38%
Team Total
SEA Over 4.5
36%
Team Total
TEX Over 4.5
39%
THE READ
The sim splits this one — 8.00 total runs with under a quarter-run between the sides.
- Projected runs: SEA 3.91, TEX 4.10
- Logan Gilbert (SEA) vs Jacob deGrom (TEX)
- Run on confirmed lineups
Logan Gilbert
SEA SP · vs. TEX
Strikeouts
5+ Ks
91%
Strikeouts
6+ Ks
80%
Strikeouts
7+ Ks
65%
Strikeouts
8+ Ks
46%
Strikeouts
9+ Ks
30%
Outs Recorded
15+ outs
100%
Outs Recorded
18+ outs
92%
Hits Allowed
5+ hits
70%
Hits Allowed
6+ hits
57%
THE READ
Strikeout-heavy projection — the sim has him at 7.4 Ks, with the ladder still live into the 8+ rung.
- Sim projects 7.4 strikeouts
- 91% to reach 5+ against TEX
Jacob deGrom
TEX SP · vs. SEA
Strikeouts
5+ Ks
90%
Strikeouts
6+ Ks
79%
Strikeouts
7+ Ks
62%
Strikeouts
8+ Ks
46%
Strikeouts
9+ Ks
30%
Outs Recorded
15+ outs
79%
Outs Recorded
18+ outs
36%
Hits Allowed
5+ hits
42%
Hits Allowed
6+ hits
28%
THE READ
Strikeout-heavy projection — the sim has him at 7.4 Ks, with the ladder still live into the 8+ rung.
- Sim projects 7.4 strikeouts
- 90% to reach 5+ against SEA
Joc Pederson
TEX · bats L · slot 1
Home Run
1+ HR
27%
Hits
1+ hits
75%
Hits
2+ hits
35%
Total Bases
2+ bases
56%
Total Bases
3+ bases
40%
Total Bases
4+ bases
32%
RBIs
1+ RBI
40%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
17%
THE READ
Stands out most on 1+ HR — 27% against 14% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 1 · bats L
- Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
- Facing Logan Gilbert
Dominic Canzone
SEA · bats L · slot 3
Home Run
1+ HR
25%
Hits
1+ hits
71%
Hits
2+ hits
30%
Total Bases
2+ bases
50%
Total Bases
3+ bases
35%
Total Bases
4+ bases
29%
RBIs
1+ RBI
39%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
17%
THE READ
Stands out most on 1+ HR — 25% against 14% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 3 · bats L
- Cold on results, but hitting the ball well
- Facing Jacob deGrom
Wyatt Langford
TEX · slot 2
Home Run
1+ HR
23%
Hits
1+ hits
74%
Hits
2+ hits
36%
Total Bases
2+ bases
53%
Total Bases
3+ bases
38%
Total Bases
4+ bases
30%
RBIs
1+ RBI
39%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
17%
THE READ
Stands out most on 4+ bases — 30% against 17% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 2
- Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
- Facing Logan Gilbert
Luke Raley
SEA · bats L · slot 7
Home Run
1+ HR
19%
Hits
1+ hits
61%
Hits
2+ hits
22%
Total Bases
2+ bases
40%
Total Bases
3+ bases
27%
Total Bases
4+ bases
22%
RBIs
1+ RBI
31%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
14%
THE READ
Stands out most on 1+ HR — 19% against 14% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 7 · bats L
- Cold on results, but hitting the ball well
- Facing Jacob deGrom
Randy Arozarena
SEA · bats R · slot 4
Home Run
1+ HR
15%
Hits
1+ hits
67%
Hits
2+ hits
26%
Total Bases
2+ bases
43%
Total Bases
3+ bases
27%
Total Bases
4+ bases
19%
RBIs
1+ RBI
31%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
13%
THE READ
Stands out most on 2+ RBIs — 13% against 11% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 4 · bats R
- Facing Jacob deGrom
Julio Rodríguez
SEA · slot 2
Home Run
1+ HR
15%
Hits
1+ hits
68%
Hits
2+ hits
28%
Total Bases
2+ bases
44%
Total Bases
3+ bases
28%
Total Bases
4+ bases
20%
RBIs
1+ RBI
29%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
11%
THE READ
Stands out most on 2+ hits — 28% against 24% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 2
- Facing Jacob deGrom
Brandon Nimmo
TEX · bats L · slot 4
Home Run
1+ HR
14%
Hits
1+ hits
69%
Hits
2+ hits
27%
Total Bases
2+ bases
44%
Total Bases
3+ bases
27%
Total Bases
4+ bases
19%
RBIs
1+ RBI
32%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
12%
THE READ
Stands out most on 2+ hits — 27% against 24% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 4 · bats L
- Facing Logan Gilbert
Jake Burger
TEX · bats R · slot 5
Home Run
1+ HR
16%
Hits
1+ hits
63%
Hits
2+ hits
22%
Total Bases
2+ bases
39%
Total Bases
3+ bases
24%
Total Bases
4+ bases
19%
RBIs
1+ RBI
31%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
12%
THE READ
Stands out most on 1+ HR — 16% against 14% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 5 · bats R
- Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
- Facing Logan Gilbert
Cole Young
SEA · bats L · slot 1
Home Run
1+ HR
12%
Hits
1+ hits
66%
Hits
2+ hits
26%
Total Bases
2+ bases
39%
Total Bases
3+ bases
24%
Total Bases
4+ bases
16%
RBIs
1+ RBI
25%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
8%
THE READ
Stands out most on 2+ hits — 26% against 24% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 1 · bats L
- Facing Jacob deGrom
Ezequiel Duran
TEX · bats R · slot 3
Home Run
1+ HR
10%
Hits
1+ hits
65%
Hits
2+ hits
24%
Total Bases
2+ bases
36%
Total Bases
3+ bases
20%
Total Bases
4+ bases
13%
RBIs
1+ RBI
27%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
10%
THE READ
Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 65%.
- Batting 3 · bats R
- Facing Logan Gilbert
Nicky Lopez
TEX · bats L · slot 7
Home Run
1+ HR
8%
Hits
1+ hits
64%
Hits
2+ hits
23%
Total Bases
2+ bases
34%
Total Bases
3+ bases
18%
Total Bases
4+ bases
11%
RBIs
1+ RBI
24%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
8%
THE READ
Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 64%.
- Batting 7 · bats L
- Facing Logan Gilbert
Elias Díaz
TEX · bats R · slot 9
Home Run
1+ HR
10%
Hits
1+ hits
61%
Hits
2+ hits
21%
Total Bases
2+ bases
37%
Total Bases
3+ bases
20%
Total Bases
4+ bases
14%
RBIs
1+ RBI
26%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
9%
THE READ
Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 61%.
- Batting 9 · bats R
- Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
- Facing Logan Gilbert
Josh Naylor
SEA · bats L · slot 5
Home Run
1+ HR
8%
Hits
1+ hits
61%
Hits
2+ hits
22%
Total Bases
2+ bases
34%
Total Bases
3+ bases
18%
Total Bases
4+ bases
11%
RBIs
1+ RBI
24%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
8%
THE READ
Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 61%.
- Batting 5 · bats L
- Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
- Facing Jacob deGrom
Evan Carter
TEX · bats L · slot 6
Home Run
1+ HR
11%
Hits
1+ hits
58%
Hits
2+ hits
18%
Total Bases
2+ bases
32%
Total Bases
3+ bases
18%
Total Bases
4+ bases
13%
RBIs
1+ RBI
24%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
8%
THE READ
Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 58% against 63%.
- Batting 6 · bats L
- Facing Logan Gilbert
Josh Smith
TEX · bats L · slot 8
Home Run
1+ HR
5%
Hits
1+ hits
58%
Hits
2+ hits
18%
Total Bases
2+ bases
28%
Total Bases
3+ bases
14%
Total Bases
4+ bases
8%
RBIs
1+ RBI
21%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
6%
THE READ
Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 58% against 63%.
- Batting 8 · bats L
- Facing Logan Gilbert
J.P. Crawford
SEA · bats L · slot 8
Home Run
1+ HR
10%
Hits
1+ hits
55%
Hits
2+ hits
16%
Total Bases
2+ bases
31%
Total Bases
3+ bases
17%
Total Bases
4+ bases
12%
RBIs
1+ RBI
23%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
8%
THE READ
Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 55% against 63%.
- Batting 8 · bats L
- Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
- Facing Jacob deGrom
Cal Raleigh
SEA · bats S · slot 6
Home Run
1+ HR
12%
Hits
1+ hits
54%
Hits
2+ hits
15%
Total Bases
2+ bases
30%
Total Bases
3+ bases
18%
Total Bases
4+ bases
14%
RBIs
1+ RBI
24%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
9%
THE READ
Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ HR at 12% against 14%.
- Batting 6 · bats S
- Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
- Facing Jacob deGrom
Colt Emerson
SEA · bats L · slot 9
Home Run
1+ HR
10%
Hits
1+ hits
52%
Hits
2+ hits
15%
Total Bases
2+ bases
28%
Total Bases
3+ bases
16%
Total Bases
4+ bases
12%
RBIs
1+ RBI
22%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
8%
THE READ
Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 52% against 63%.
- Batting 9 · bats L
- Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
- Facing Jacob deGrom
III · METHODOLOGY
How this read was built.
- Simulation. 5,000 Monte Carlo trials of this game using real play-by-play data, confirmed lineups, pitcher quality, bullpen depth, defensive runs saved, catcher framing, umpire K-zones, and per-batter rates regressed with empirical Bayes.
- What the number means. The share of those 5,000 trials in which the outcome happened — the model's own estimate, not a claim that a sportsbook has mispriced it. We publish it next to the reasoning that produced it and let the settlement record below speak for itself.
- Settlement. Every read on this page is graded by Kalshi's own settlement market once the game ends. The post-game version of this page shows what was confirmed and what was missed.
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