AI MODEL READ
SETTLEDSD vs MIA
San Diego Padres at Miami Marlins
Sunday, July 26, 2026
SIMULATION · ONE TRIAL, EVERY MARKET
Watch the model run this game.
One representative trial from the SD @ MIA simulation — real per-AB batter, outcome, and score progression from the spine. Every game-level market updates in lock-step with each play.
FIELD
PITCH SEQUENCE
SD Leadoff (R) vs HP
OUTCOME DISTRIBUTION
SD Leadoff in this spot
BATTER PROPS · SD LEADOFF
PITCHER PROPS · HP
GAME MARKETS · LIVE
updating per event
MONEYLINE
MIA to win
TOTAL
Over 8.5
RUN LINE
MIA -1.5
TEAM TOTAL MIA
Over 4.5
FIRST 5 INN
MIA wins F5
event 1 / 18 · pitching
Every card on the board is a live read. As the game changes, the math changes with it — every prop, every market line, in real time. Cards turn green when they hit, red when they miss.
I · GAME-LEVEL MODEL
Win probability + total.
GAME WINNER
✓ CONFIRMEDSan Diego vs Miami Winner?
5,000-TRIAL SIMULATION
II · EVERY MARKET WE RAN
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One card per hitter and pitcher, plus the game markets — the sim's own number on every line it priced, with the reasoning that produced it.
169 simulated lines · raw sim
1 / 21
Game Markets
SD @ MIA · full-game reads
Moneyline
MIA to win
52%
1st 5 Innings
MIA F5
46%
Game Total
Over 8.5
65%
1st 5 Total
Over 4.5
63%
Run Line
MIA -1.5
39%
Team Total
SD Over 4.5
54%
Team Total
MIA Over 4.5
56%
THE READ
The sim splits this one — 10.70 total runs with under a quarter-run between the sides.
- Projected runs: SD 5.33, MIA 5.37
- Walker Buehler (SD) vs Janson Junk (MIA)
- Run on confirmed lineups
Walker Buehler
SD SP · vs. MIA
Strikeouts
5+ Ks
18%
Strikeouts
6+ Ks
7%
Strikeouts
7+ Ks
2%
Strikeouts
8+ Ks
1%
Strikeouts
9+ Ks
0%
Outs Recorded
15+ outs
27%
Outs Recorded
18+ outs
1%
Hits Allowed
5+ hits
51%
Hits Allowed
6+ hits
38%
THE READ
Low-strikeout projection at 3.1 Ks — the ladder thins out fast above the first rung.
- Sim projects 3.1 strikeouts
- 18% to reach 5+ against MIA
Janson Junk
MIA SP · vs. SD
Strikeouts
5+ Ks
14%
Strikeouts
6+ Ks
5%
Strikeouts
7+ Ks
1%
Strikeouts
8+ Ks
0%
Strikeouts
9+ Ks
0%
Outs Recorded
15+ outs
51%
Outs Recorded
18+ outs
2%
Hits Allowed
5+ hits
58%
Hits Allowed
6+ hits
43%
THE READ
Low-strikeout projection at 2.8 Ks — the ladder thins out fast above the first rung.
- Sim projects 2.8 strikeouts
- 14% to reach 5+ against SD
Ty France
SD · bats R · slot 4
Home Run
1+ HR
25%
Hits
1+ hits
77%
Hits
2+ hits
39%
Total Bases
2+ bases
57%
Total Bases
3+ bases
41%
Total Bases
4+ bases
32%
RBIs
1+ RBI
48%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
25%
THE READ
Stands out most on 1+ HR — 25% against 14% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 4 · bats R
- Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
- Facing Janson Junk
Griffin Conine
MIA · bats L · slot 6
Home Run
1+ HR
23%
Hits
1+ hits
72%
Hits
2+ hits
33%
Total Bases
2+ bases
52%
Total Bases
3+ bases
37%
Total Bases
4+ bases
29%
RBIs
1+ RBI
44%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
21%
THE READ
Stands out most on 1+ HR — 23% against 14% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 6 · bats L
- Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
- Facing Walker Buehler
Manny Machado
SD · bats R · slot 3
Home Run
1+ HR
23%
Hits
1+ hits
71%
Hits
2+ hits
32%
Total Bases
2+ bases
51%
Total Bases
3+ bases
35%
Total Bases
4+ bases
27%
RBIs
1+ RBI
43%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
21%
THE READ
Stands out most on 1+ HR — 23% against 14% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 3 · bats R
- Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
- Facing Janson Junk
Heriberto Hernández
MIA · bats R · slot 3
Home Run
1+ HR
21%
Hits
1+ hits
73%
Hits
2+ hits
33%
Total Bases
2+ bases
52%
Total Bases
3+ bases
35%
Total Bases
4+ bases
26%
RBIs
1+ RBI
41%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
18%
THE READ
Stands out most on 1+ HR — 21% against 14% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 3 · bats R
- Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
- Facing Walker Buehler
Kyle Stowers
MIA · bats L · slot 2
Home Run
1+ HR
20%
Hits
1+ hits
74%
Hits
2+ hits
33%
Total Bases
2+ bases
52%
Total Bases
3+ bases
34%
Total Bases
4+ bases
25%
RBIs
1+ RBI
39%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
17%
THE READ
Stands out most on 1+ HR — 20% against 14% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 2 · bats L
- Facing Walker Buehler
Fernando Tatis Jr.
SD · bats R · slot 1
Home Run
1+ HR
12%
Hits
1+ hits
78%
Hits
2+ hits
41%
Total Bases
2+ bases
55%
Total Bases
3+ bases
34%
Total Bases
4+ bases
22%
RBIs
1+ RBI
35%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
13%
THE READ
Stands out most on 2+ hits — 41% against 30% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 1 · bats R
- Facing Janson Junk
Otto Lopez
MIA · bats R · slot 1
Home Run
1+ HR
13%
Hits
1+ hits
77%
Hits
2+ hits
41%
Total Bases
2+ bases
54%
Total Bases
3+ bases
34%
Total Bases
4+ bases
22%
RBIs
1+ RBI
34%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
14%
THE READ
Stands out most on 2+ hits — 41% against 30% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 1 · bats R
- Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
- Facing Walker Buehler
Joe Mack
MIA · bats L · slot 9
Home Run
1+ HR
18%
Hits
1+ hits
66%
Hits
2+ hits
25%
Total Bases
2+ bases
43%
Total Bases
3+ bases
28%
Total Bases
4+ bases
21%
RBIs
1+ RBI
36%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
16%
THE READ
Stands out most on 1+ HR — 18% against 14% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 9 · bats L
- Facing Walker Buehler
Liam Hicks
MIA · bats L · slot 5
Home Run
1+ HR
15%
Hits
1+ hits
69%
Hits
2+ hits
28%
Total Bases
2+ bases
43%
Total Bases
3+ bases
26%
Total Bases
4+ bases
18%
RBIs
1+ RBI
37%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
16%
THE READ
Stands out most on 2+ RBIs — 16% against 15% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 5 · bats L
- Facing Walker Buehler
Luis Campusano
SD · bats R · slot 8
Home Run
1+ HR
16%
Hits
1+ hits
72%
Hits
2+ hits
32%
Total Bases
2+ bases
48%
Total Bases
3+ bases
30%
Total Bases
4+ bases
21%
RBIs
1+ RBI
37%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
16%
THE READ
Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 72%.
- Batting 8 · bats R
- Facing Janson Junk
Gavin Sheets
SD · bats L · slot 7
Home Run
1+ HR
15%
Hits
1+ hits
65%
Hits
2+ hits
25%
Total Bases
2+ bases
41%
Total Bases
3+ bases
26%
Total Bases
4+ bases
19%
RBIs
1+ RBI
34%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
14%
THE READ
Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 65%.
- Batting 7 · bats L
- Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
- Facing Janson Junk
Jackson Merrill
SD · bats L · slot 5
Home Run
1+ HR
14%
Hits
1+ hits
71%
Hits
2+ hits
31%
Total Bases
2+ bases
45%
Total Bases
3+ bases
28%
Total Bases
4+ bases
19%
RBIs
1+ RBI
36%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
14%
THE READ
Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 71%.
- Batting 5 · bats L
- Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
- Facing Janson Junk
Jake Cronenworth
SD · bats L · slot 2
Home Run
1+ HR
8%
Hits
1+ hits
70%
Hits
2+ hits
30%
Total Bases
2+ bases
42%
Total Bases
3+ bases
23%
Total Bases
4+ bases
14%
RBIs
1+ RBI
30%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
10%
THE READ
Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 70%.
- Batting 2 · bats L
- Facing Janson Junk
Luis Rengifo
SD · slot 6
Home Run
1+ HR
7%
Hits
1+ hits
70%
Hits
2+ hits
29%
Total Bases
2+ bases
42%
Total Bases
3+ bases
22%
Total Bases
4+ bases
13%
RBIs
1+ RBI
29%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
10%
THE READ
Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 70%.
- Batting 6
- Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
- Facing Janson Junk
Xavier Edwards
MIA · bats S · slot 4
Home Run
1+ HR
6%
Hits
1+ hits
69%
Hits
2+ hits
27%
Total Bases
2+ bases
38%
Total Bases
3+ bases
20%
Total Bases
4+ bases
11%
RBIs
1+ RBI
31%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
11%
THE READ
Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 69%.
- Batting 4 · bats S
- Facing Walker Buehler
Esteury Ruiz
MIA · bats R · slot 7
Home Run
1+ HR
11%
Hits
1+ hits
66%
Hits
2+ hits
25%
Total Bases
2+ bases
38%
Total Bases
3+ bases
22%
Total Bases
4+ bases
15%
RBIs
1+ RBI
32%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
13%
THE READ
Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 66% against 70%.
- Batting 7 · bats R
- Facing Walker Buehler
Sung-Mun Song
SD · bats L · slot 9
Home Run
1+ HR
7%
Hits
1+ hits
64%
Hits
2+ hits
23%
Total Bases
2+ bases
35%
Total Bases
3+ bases
18%
Total Bases
4+ bases
11%
RBIs
1+ RBI
29%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
10%
THE READ
Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 64% against 70%.
- Batting 9 · bats L
- Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
- Facing Janson Junk
Graham Pauley
MIA · slot 8
Home Run
1+ HR
6%
Hits
1+ hits
60%
Hits
2+ hits
20%
Total Bases
2+ bases
32%
Total Bases
3+ bases
16%
Total Bases
4+ bases
9%
RBIs
1+ RBI
28%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
9%
THE READ
Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 60% against 70%.
- Batting 8
- Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
- Facing Walker Buehler
III · METHODOLOGY
How this read was built.
- Simulation. 5,000 Monte Carlo trials of this game using real play-by-play data, confirmed lineups, pitcher quality, bullpen depth, defensive runs saved, catcher framing, umpire K-zones, and per-batter rates regressed with empirical Bayes.
- What the number means. The share of those 5,000 trials in which the outcome happened — the model's own estimate, not a claim that a sportsbook has mispriced it. We publish it next to the reasoning that produced it and let the settlement record below speak for itself.
- Settlement. Every read on this page is graded by Kalshi's own settlement market once the game ends. The post-game version of this page shows what was confirmed and what was missed.
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