AI MODEL READ
SETTLEDKC vs DET
Kansas City Royals at Detroit Tigers
Sunday, July 26, 2026
SIMULATION · ONE TRIAL, EVERY MARKET
Watch the model run this game.
One representative trial from the KC @ DET simulation — real per-AB batter, outcome, and score progression from the spine. Every game-level market updates in lock-step with each play.
FIELD
PITCH SEQUENCE
KC Leadoff (R) vs HP
OUTCOME DISTRIBUTION
KC Leadoff in this spot
BATTER PROPS · KC LEADOFF
PITCHER PROPS · HP
GAME MARKETS · LIVE
updating per event
MONEYLINE
DET to win
TOTAL
Over 8.5
RUN LINE
DET -1.5
TEAM TOTAL DET
Over 4.5
FIRST 5 INN
DET wins F5
event 1 / 14 · pitching
Every card on the board is a live read. As the game changes, the math changes with it — every prop, every market line, in real time. Cards turn green when they hit, red when they miss.
I · GAME-LEVEL MODEL
Win probability + total.
GAME WINNER
✓ CONFIRMEDKansas City vs Detroit Winner?
5,000-TRIAL SIMULATION
our sim and the sharpest books agree
II · EVERY MARKET WE RAN
Swipe the whole board.
One card per hitter and pitcher, plus the game markets — the sim's own number on every line it priced, with the reasoning that produced it.
169 simulated lines · raw sim
1 / 21
Game Markets
KC @ DET · full-game reads
Moneyline
DET to win
61%
1st 5 Innings
DET F5
55%
Game Total
Over 8.5
67%
1st 5 Total
Over 4.5
69%
Run Line
DET -1.5
48%
Team Total
KC Over 4.5
49%
Team Total
DET Over 4.5
63%
THE READ
DET projects to outscore KC by 1.17 runs across 5,000 trials.
- Projected runs: KC 4.86, DET 6.03
- Luinder Avila (KC) vs Framber Valdez (DET)
- Run on confirmed lineups
Luinder Avila
KC SP · vs. DET
Strikeouts
5+ Ks
59%
Strikeouts
6+ Ks
39%
Strikeouts
7+ Ks
23%
Strikeouts
8+ Ks
12%
Strikeouts
9+ Ks
5%
Outs Recorded
15+ outs
82%
Outs Recorded
18+ outs
36%
Hits Allowed
5+ hits
71%
Hits Allowed
6+ hits
58%
THE READ
Middle-of-the-road strikeout projection at 5.1 Ks.
- Sim projects 5.1 strikeouts
- 59% to reach 5+ against DET
Framber Valdez
DET SP · vs. KC
Strikeouts
5+ Ks
35%
Strikeouts
6+ Ks
19%
Strikeouts
7+ Ks
9%
Strikeouts
8+ Ks
3%
Strikeouts
9+ Ks
1%
Outs Recorded
15+ outs
90%
Outs Recorded
18+ outs
49%
Hits Allowed
5+ hits
70%
Hits Allowed
6+ hits
57%
THE READ
Low-strikeout projection at 3.9 Ks — the ladder thins out fast above the first rung.
- Sim projects 3.9 strikeouts
- 35% to reach 5+ against KC
Dillon Dingler
DET · bats R · slot 5
Home Run
1+ HR
28%
Hits
1+ hits
75%
Hits
2+ hits
36%
Total Bases
2+ bases
54%
Total Bases
3+ bases
40%
Total Bases
4+ bases
32%
RBIs
1+ RBI
51%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
27%
THE READ
Stands out most on 1+ HR — 28% against 15% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 5 · bats R
- Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
- Facing Luinder Avila
Riley Greene
DET · bats L · slot 4
Home Run
1+ HR
21%
Hits
1+ hits
75%
Hits
2+ hits
37%
Total Bases
2+ bases
53%
Total Bases
3+ bases
36%
Total Bases
4+ bases
27%
RBIs
1+ RBI
46%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
24%
THE READ
Stands out most on 2+ RBIs — 24% against 15% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 4 · bats L
- Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
- Facing Luinder Avila
Spencer Torkelson
DET · bats R · slot 7
Home Run
1+ HR
22%
Hits
1+ hits
65%
Hits
2+ hits
25%
Total Bases
2+ bases
44%
Total Bases
3+ bases
31%
Total Bases
4+ bases
25%
RBIs
1+ RBI
38%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
18%
THE READ
Stands out most on 1+ HR — 22% against 15% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 7 · bats R
- Facing Luinder Avila
Kerry Carpenter
DET · bats L · slot 6
Home Run
1+ HR
22%
Hits
1+ hits
69%
Hits
2+ hits
27%
Total Bases
2+ bases
47%
Total Bases
3+ bases
31%
Total Bases
4+ bases
25%
RBIs
1+ RBI
40%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
20%
THE READ
Stands out most on 1+ HR — 22% against 15% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 6 · bats L
- Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
- Facing Luinder Avila
Jac Caglianone
KC · bats L · slot 4
Home Run
1+ HR
19%
Hits
1+ hits
73%
Hits
2+ hits
33%
Total Bases
2+ bases
50%
Total Bases
3+ bases
33%
Total Bases
4+ bases
25%
RBIs
1+ RBI
41%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
19%
THE READ
Stands out most on 1+ HR — 19% against 15% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 4 · bats L
- Cold on results, but hitting the ball well
- Facing Framber Valdez
Salvador Perez
KC · bats R · slot 3
Home Run
1+ HR
18%
Hits
1+ hits
74%
Hits
2+ hits
36%
Total Bases
2+ bases
53%
Total Bases
3+ bases
34%
Total Bases
4+ bases
25%
RBIs
1+ RBI
40%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
18%
THE READ
Stands out most on 4+ bases — 25% against 20% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 3 · bats R
- Facing Framber Valdez
Colt Keith
DET · bats L · slot 1
Home Run
1+ HR
16%
Hits
1+ hits
75%
Hits
2+ hits
36%
Total Bases
2+ bases
51%
Total Bases
3+ bases
33%
Total Bases
4+ bases
23%
RBIs
1+ RBI
34%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
14%
THE READ
Stands out most on 2+ hits — 36% against 30% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 1 · bats L
- Facing Luinder Avila
Lane Thomas
KC · bats R · slot 1
Home Run
1+ HR
14%
Hits
1+ hits
73%
Hits
2+ hits
34%
Total Bases
2+ bases
48%
Total Bases
3+ bases
30%
Total Bases
4+ bases
21%
RBIs
1+ RBI
33%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
13%
THE READ
Stands out most on 2+ hits — 34% against 30% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 1 · bats R
- Facing Framber Valdez
Gleyber Torres
DET · slot 3
Home Run
1+ HR
13%
Hits
1+ hits
73%
Hits
2+ hits
34%
Total Bases
2+ bases
47%
Total Bases
3+ bases
29%
Total Bases
4+ bases
19%
RBIs
1+ RBI
37%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
16%
THE READ
Stands out most on 2+ hits — 34% against 30% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 3
- Facing Luinder Avila
Starling Marte
KC · bats R · slot 5
Home Run
1+ HR
11%
Hits
1+ hits
72%
Hits
2+ hits
33%
Total Bases
2+ bases
48%
Total Bases
3+ bases
29%
Total Bases
4+ bases
19%
RBIs
1+ RBI
35%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
14%
THE READ
Stands out most on 2+ hits — 33% against 30% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 5 · bats R
- Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
- Facing Framber Valdez
Kevin McGonigle
DET · bats L · slot 2
Home Run
1+ HR
12%
Hits
1+ hits
73%
Hits
2+ hits
32%
Total Bases
2+ bases
46%
Total Bases
3+ bases
27%
Total Bases
4+ bases
18%
RBIs
1+ RBI
33%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
12%
THE READ
Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 73%.
- Batting 2 · bats L
- Facing Luinder Avila
Nick Loftin
KC · bats R · slot 2
Home Run
1+ HR
9%
Hits
1+ hits
70%
Hits
2+ hits
29%
Total Bases
2+ bases
41%
Total Bases
3+ bases
23%
Total Bases
4+ bases
14%
RBIs
1+ RBI
30%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
10%
THE READ
Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 70%.
- Batting 2 · bats R
- Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
- Facing Framber Valdez
Hao-Yu Lee
DET · bats R · slot 9
Home Run
1+ HR
14%
Hits
1+ hits
69%
Hits
2+ hits
29%
Total Bases
2+ bases
44%
Total Bases
3+ bases
27%
Total Bases
4+ bases
18%
RBIs
1+ RBI
33%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
13%
THE READ
Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 69%.
- Batting 9 · bats R
- Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
- Facing Luinder Avila
Tyler Tolbert
KC · bats R · slot 7
Home Run
1+ HR
11%
Hits
1+ hits
68%
Hits
2+ hits
28%
Total Bases
2+ bases
41%
Total Bases
3+ bases
24%
Total Bases
4+ bases
16%
RBIs
1+ RBI
31%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
11%
THE READ
Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 68%.
- Batting 7 · bats R
- Facing Framber Valdez
Isaac Collins
KC · bats S · slot 6
Home Run
1+ HR
10%
Hits
1+ hits
66%
Hits
2+ hits
26%
Total Bases
2+ bases
38%
Total Bases
3+ bases
22%
Total Bases
4+ bases
14%
RBIs
1+ RBI
30%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
11%
THE READ
Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 66% against 70%.
- Batting 6 · bats S
- Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
- Facing Framber Valdez
Luke Maile
KC · bats R · slot 8
Home Run
1+ HR
12%
Hits
1+ hits
65%
Hits
2+ hits
26%
Total Bases
2+ bases
39%
Total Bases
3+ bases
23%
Total Bases
4+ bases
16%
RBIs
1+ RBI
31%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
12%
THE READ
Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 65% against 70%.
- Batting 8 · bats R
- Facing Framber Valdez
Andrew Velazquez
KC · slot 9
Home Run
1+ HR
12%
Hits
1+ hits
65%
Hits
2+ hits
25%
Total Bases
2+ bases
39%
Total Bases
3+ bases
23%
Total Bases
4+ bases
16%
RBIs
1+ RBI
32%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
12%
THE READ
Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 65% against 70%.
- Batting 9
- Facing Framber Valdez
James Outman
DET · bats L · slot 8
Home Run
1+ HR
14%
Hits
1+ hits
62%
Hits
2+ hits
22%
Total Bases
2+ bases
38%
Total Bases
3+ bases
23%
Total Bases
4+ bases
17%
RBIs
1+ RBI
30%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
12%
THE READ
Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ HR at 14% against 15%.
- Batting 8 · bats L
- Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
- Facing Luinder Avila
III · METHODOLOGY
How this read was built.
- Simulation. 5,000 Monte Carlo trials of this game using real play-by-play data, confirmed lineups, pitcher quality, bullpen depth, defensive runs saved, catcher framing, umpire K-zones, and per-batter rates regressed with empirical Bayes.
- What the number means. The share of those 5,000 trials in which the outcome happened — the model's own estimate, not a claim that a sportsbook has mispriced it. We publish it next to the reasoning that produced it and let the settlement record below speak for itself.
- Settlement. Every read on this page is graded by Kalshi's own settlement market once the game ends. The post-game version of this page shows what was confirmed and what was missed.
DISCLOSURE
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