AI MODEL READ
SETTLEDCOL vs MIL
Colorado Rockies at Milwaukee Brewers
Sunday, July 26, 2026
SIMULATION · ONE TRIAL, EVERY MARKET
Watch the model run this game.
One representative trial from the COL @ MIL simulation — real per-AB batter, outcome, and score progression from the spine. Every game-level market updates in lock-step with each play.
FIELD
PITCH SEQUENCE
COL Leadoff (R) vs HP
OUTCOME DISTRIBUTION
COL Leadoff in this spot
BATTER PROPS · COL LEADOFF
PITCHER PROPS · HP
GAME MARKETS · LIVE
updating per event
MONEYLINE
MIL to win
TOTAL
Over 8.5
RUN LINE
MIL -1.5
TEAM TOTAL MIL
Over 4.5
FIRST 5 INN
MIL wins F5
event 1 / 16 · pitching
Every card on the board is a live read. As the game changes, the math changes with it — every prop, every market line, in real time. Cards turn green when they hit, red when they miss.
I · GAME-LEVEL MODEL
Win probability + total.
GAME WINNER
✗ MISSEDColorado vs Milwaukee Winner?
5,000-TRIAL SIMULATION
II · EVERY MARKET WE RAN
Swipe the whole board.
One card per hitter and pitcher, plus the game markets — the sim's own number on every line it priced, with the reasoning that produced it.
169 simulated lines · raw sim
1 / 21
Game Markets
COL @ MIL · full-game reads
Moneyline
MIL to win
83%
1st 5 Innings
MIL F5
74%
Game Total
Over 8.5
62%
1st 5 Total
Over 4.5
61%
Run Line
MIL -1.5
72%
Team Total
COL Over 4.5
26%
Team Total
MIL Over 4.5
74%
THE READ
MIL projects to outscore COL by 3.94 runs across 5,000 trials.
- Projected runs: COL 3.22, MIL 7.17
- Kyle Freeland (COL) vs Jacob Misiorowski (MIL)
- Run on confirmed lineups
Kyle Freeland
COL SP · vs. MIL
Strikeouts
5+ Ks
30%
Strikeouts
6+ Ks
14%
Strikeouts
7+ Ks
6%
Strikeouts
8+ Ks
2%
Strikeouts
9+ Ks
1%
Outs Recorded
15+ outs
90%
Outs Recorded
18+ outs
23%
Hits Allowed
5+ hits
82%
Hits Allowed
6+ hits
72%
THE READ
Low-strikeout projection at 3.7 Ks — the ladder thins out fast above the first rung.
- Sim projects 3.7 strikeouts
- 30% to reach 5+ against MIL
Jacob Misiorowski
MIL SP · vs. COL
Strikeouts
5+ Ks
97%
Strikeouts
6+ Ks
94%
Strikeouts
7+ Ks
86%
Strikeouts
8+ Ks
76%
Strikeouts
9+ Ks
63%
Outs Recorded
15+ outs
83%
Outs Recorded
18+ outs
48%
Hits Allowed
5+ hits
34%
Hits Allowed
6+ hits
21%
THE READ
Strikeout-heavy projection — the sim has him at 9.5 Ks, with the ladder still live into the 8+ rung.
- Sim projects 9.5 strikeouts
- 97% to reach 5+ against COL
Jake Bauers
MIL · bats L · slot 5
Home Run
1+ HR
26%
Hits
1+ hits
80%
Hits
2+ hits
42%
Total Bases
2+ bases
61%
Total Bases
3+ bases
44%
Total Bases
4+ bases
34%
RBIs
1+ RBI
52%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
26%
THE READ
Stands out most on 2+ RBIs — 26% against 15% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 5 · bats L
- Facing Kyle Freeland
Gary Sánchez
MIL · bats R · slot 6
Home Run
1+ HR
26%
Hits
1+ hits
78%
Hits
2+ hits
40%
Total Bases
2+ bases
58%
Total Bases
3+ bases
42%
Total Bases
4+ bases
33%
RBIs
1+ RBI
50%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
26%
THE READ
Stands out most on 2+ RBIs — 26% against 15% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 6 · bats R
- Facing Kyle Freeland
Jackson Chourio
MIL · bats R · slot 1
Home Run
1+ HR
26%
Hits
1+ hits
84%
Hits
2+ hits
49%
Total Bases
2+ bases
64%
Total Bases
3+ bases
46%
Total Bases
4+ bases
36%
RBIs
1+ RBI
47%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
23%
THE READ
Stands out most on 4+ bases — 36% against 21% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 1 · bats R
- Facing Kyle Freeland
Andrew Vaughn
MIL · bats R · slot 3
Home Run
1+ HR
22%
Hits
1+ hits
83%
Hits
2+ hits
48%
Total Bases
2+ bases
63%
Total Bases
3+ bases
44%
Total Bases
4+ bases
33%
RBIs
1+ RBI
48%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
24%
THE READ
Stands out most on 2+ hits — 48% against 29% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 3 · bats R
- Facing Kyle Freeland
Hunter Goodman
COL · bats R · slot 3
Home Run
1+ HR
24%
Hits
1+ hits
60%
Hits
2+ hits
20%
Total Bases
2+ bases
41%
Total Bases
3+ bases
29%
Total Bases
4+ bases
26%
RBIs
1+ RBI
33%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
14%
THE READ
Stands out most on 1+ HR — 24% against 16% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 3 · bats R
- Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
- Facing Jacob Misiorowski
Brice Turang
MIL · bats L · slot 2
Home Run
1+ HR
19%
Hits
1+ hits
78%
Hits
2+ hits
41%
Total Bases
2+ bases
56%
Total Bases
3+ bases
38%
Total Bases
4+ bases
27%
RBIs
1+ RBI
42%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
19%
THE READ
Stands out most on 2+ hits — 41% against 29% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 2 · bats L
- Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
- Facing Kyle Freeland
William Contreras
MIL · bats R · slot 4
Home Run
1+ HR
16%
Hits
1+ hits
77%
Hits
2+ hits
38%
Total Bases
2+ bases
53%
Total Bases
3+ bases
34%
Total Bases
4+ bases
23%
RBIs
1+ RBI
45%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
20%
THE READ
Stands out most on 2+ RBIs — 20% against 15% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 4 · bats R
- Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
- Facing Kyle Freeland
Luis Lara
MIL · slot 7
Home Run
1+ HR
16%
Hits
1+ hits
75%
Hits
2+ hits
37%
Total Bases
2+ bases
52%
Total Bases
3+ bases
33%
Total Bases
4+ bases
24%
RBIs
1+ RBI
42%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
19%
THE READ
Stands out most on 2+ RBIs — 19% against 15% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 7
- Facing Kyle Freeland
Cooper Pratt
MIL · bats R · slot 8
Home Run
1+ HR
16%
Hits
1+ hits
76%
Hits
2+ hits
37%
Total Bases
2+ bases
52%
Total Bases
3+ bases
33%
Total Bases
4+ bases
23%
RBIs
1+ RBI
42%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
19%
THE READ
Stands out most on 2+ RBIs — 19% against 15% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 8 · bats R
- Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
- Facing Kyle Freeland
Mickey Moniak
COL · bats L · slot 2
Home Run
1+ HR
20%
Hits
1+ hits
64%
Hits
2+ hits
24%
Total Bases
2+ bases
42%
Total Bases
3+ bases
29%
Total Bases
4+ bases
23%
RBIs
1+ RBI
31%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
12%
THE READ
Stands out most on 1+ HR — 20% against 16% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 2 · bats L
- Facing Jacob Misiorowski
Joey Ortiz
MIL · bats R · slot 9
Home Run
1+ HR
11%
Hits
1+ hits
69%
Hits
2+ hits
29%
Total Bases
2+ bases
41%
Total Bases
3+ bases
23%
Total Bases
4+ bases
15%
RBIs
1+ RBI
34%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
13%
THE READ
Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 69%.
- Batting 9 · bats R
- Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
- Facing Kyle Freeland
TJ Rumfield
COL · bats L · slot 4
Home Run
1+ HR
12%
Hits
1+ hits
63%
Hits
2+ hits
22%
Total Bases
2+ bases
37%
Total Bases
3+ bases
21%
Total Bases
4+ bases
15%
RBIs
1+ RBI
25%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
8%
THE READ
Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 63% against 68%.
- Batting 4 · bats L
- Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
- Facing Jacob Misiorowski
Jake McCarthy
COL · bats L · slot 1
Home Run
1+ HR
10%
Hits
1+ hits
61%
Hits
2+ hits
21%
Total Bases
2+ bases
34%
Total Bases
3+ bases
19%
Total Bases
4+ bases
13%
RBIs
1+ RBI
21%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
6%
THE READ
Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 61% against 68%.
- Batting 1 · bats L
- Facing Jacob Misiorowski
Cole Carrigg
COL · bats S · slot 6
Home Run
1+ HR
11%
Hits
1+ hits
57%
Hits
2+ hits
19%
Total Bases
2+ bases
33%
Total Bases
3+ bases
19%
Total Bases
4+ bases
14%
RBIs
1+ RBI
24%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
9%
THE READ
Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 57% against 68%.
- Batting 6 · bats S
- Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
- Facing Jacob Misiorowski
Kyle Karros
COL · bats R · slot 5
Home Run
1+ HR
10%
Hits
1+ hits
56%
Hits
2+ hits
17%
Total Bases
2+ bases
31%
Total Bases
3+ bases
18%
Total Bases
4+ bases
13%
RBIs
1+ RBI
22%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
8%
THE READ
Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 56% against 68%.
- Batting 5 · bats R
- Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
- Facing Jacob Misiorowski
Troy Johnston
COL · bats L · slot 8
Home Run
1+ HR
4%
Hits
1+ hits
55%
Hits
2+ hits
17%
Total Bases
2+ bases
28%
Total Bases
3+ bases
13%
Total Bases
4+ bases
7%
RBIs
1+ RBI
19%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
5%
THE READ
Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 55% against 68%.
- Batting 8 · bats L
- Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
- Facing Jacob Misiorowski
Willi Castro
COL · bats S · slot 7
Home Run
1+ HR
10%
Hits
1+ hits
52%
Hits
2+ hits
14%
Total Bases
2+ bases
29%
Total Bases
3+ bases
17%
Total Bases
4+ bases
12%
RBIs
1+ RBI
22%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
8%
THE READ
Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 52% against 68%.
- Batting 7 · bats S
- Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
- Facing Jacob Misiorowski
Edouard Julien
COL · bats L · slot 9
Home Run
1+ HR
5%
Hits
1+ hits
47%
Hits
2+ hits
12%
Total Bases
2+ bases
23%
Total Bases
3+ bases
11%
Total Bases
4+ bases
7%
RBIs
1+ RBI
16%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
5%
THE READ
Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 47% against 68%.
- Batting 9 · bats L
- Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
- Facing Jacob Misiorowski
III · METHODOLOGY
How this read was built.
- Simulation. 5,000 Monte Carlo trials of this game using real play-by-play data, confirmed lineups, pitcher quality, bullpen depth, defensive runs saved, catcher framing, umpire K-zones, and per-batter rates regressed with empirical Bayes.
- What the number means. The share of those 5,000 trials in which the outcome happened — the model's own estimate, not a claim that a sportsbook has mispriced it. We publish it next to the reasoning that produced it and let the settlement record below speak for itself.
- Settlement. Every read on this page is graded by Kalshi's own settlement market once the game ends. The post-game version of this page shows what was confirmed and what was missed.
DISCLOSURE
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