AI MODEL READ
SETTLEDCLE vs TB
Cleveland Guardians at Tampa Bay Rays
Sunday, July 26, 2026
SIMULATION · ONE TRIAL, EVERY MARKET
Watch the model run this game.
One representative trial from the CLE @ TB simulation — real per-AB batter, outcome, and score progression from the spine. Every game-level market updates in lock-step with each play.
FIELD
PITCH SEQUENCE
CLE Leadoff (R) vs HP
OUTCOME DISTRIBUTION
CLE Leadoff in this spot
BATTER PROPS · CLE LEADOFF
PITCHER PROPS · HP
GAME MARKETS · LIVE
updating per event
MONEYLINE
TB to win
TOTAL
Over 8.5
RUN LINE
TB -1.5
TEAM TOTAL TB
Over 4.5
FIRST 5 INN
TB wins F5
event 1 / 15 · pitching
Every card on the board is a live read. As the game changes, the math changes with it — every prop, every market line, in real time. Cards turn green when they hit, red when they miss.
I · GAME-LEVEL MODEL
Win probability + total.
GAME WINNER
✗ MISSEDCleveland vs Tampa Bay Winner?
5,000-TRIAL SIMULATION
our sim and the sharpest books agree
II · EVERY MARKET WE RAN
Swipe the whole board.
One card per hitter and pitcher, plus the game markets — the sim's own number on every line it priced, with the reasoning that produced it.
169 simulated lines · raw sim
1 / 21
Game Markets
CLE @ TB · full-game reads
Moneyline
TB to win
56%
1st 5 Innings
TB F5
46%
Game Total
Over 8.5
35%
1st 5 Total
Over 4.5
38%
Run Line
TB -1.5
39%
Team Total
CLE Over 4.5
31%
Team Total
TB Over 4.5
36%
THE READ
TB projects to outscore CLE by 0.38 runs across 5,000 trials.
- Projected runs: CLE 3.50, TB 3.87
- Parker Messick (CLE) vs Drew Rasmussen (TB)
- Run on confirmed lineups
Parker Messick
CLE SP · vs. TB
Strikeouts
5+ Ks
62%
Strikeouts
6+ Ks
43%
Strikeouts
7+ Ks
26%
Strikeouts
8+ Ks
14%
Strikeouts
9+ Ks
7%
Outs Recorded
15+ outs
98%
Outs Recorded
18+ outs
82%
Hits Allowed
5+ hits
72%
Hits Allowed
6+ hits
58%
THE READ
Middle-of-the-road strikeout projection at 5.2 Ks.
- Sim projects 5.2 strikeouts
- 62% to reach 5+ against TB
Drew Rasmussen
TB SP · vs. CLE
Strikeouts
5+ Ks
41%
Strikeouts
6+ Ks
23%
Strikeouts
7+ Ks
11%
Strikeouts
8+ Ks
5%
Strikeouts
9+ Ks
1%
Outs Recorded
15+ outs
75%
Outs Recorded
18+ outs
28%
Hits Allowed
5+ hits
47%
Hits Allowed
6+ hits
32%
THE READ
Middle-of-the-road strikeout projection at 4.2 Ks.
- Sim projects 4.2 strikeouts
- 41% to reach 5+ against CLE
Junior Caminero
TB · bats R · slot 3
Home Run
1+ HR
23%
Hits
1+ hits
74%
Hits
2+ hits
34%
Total Bases
2+ bases
52%
Total Bases
3+ bases
37%
Total Bases
4+ bases
29%
RBIs
1+ RBI
41%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
19%
THE READ
Stands out most on 1+ HR — 23% against 11% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 3 · bats R
- Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
- Facing Parker Messick
Ryan Vilade
TB · bats R · slot 2
Home Run
1+ HR
17%
Hits
1+ hits
69%
Hits
2+ hits
30%
Total Bases
2+ bases
46%
Total Bases
3+ bases
29%
Total Bases
4+ bases
22%
RBIs
1+ RBI
33%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
13%
THE READ
Stands out most on 1+ HR — 17% against 11% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 2 · bats R
- Facing Parker Messick
Yandy Díaz
TB · bats R · slot 1
Home Run
1+ HR
16%
Hits
1+ hits
70%
Hits
2+ hits
31%
Total Bases
2+ bases
46%
Total Bases
3+ bases
29%
Total Bases
4+ bases
21%
RBIs
1+ RBI
32%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
11%
THE READ
Stands out most on 1+ HR — 16% against 11% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 1 · bats R
- Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
- Facing Parker Messick
Kyle Manzardo
CLE · bats L · slot 7
Home Run
1+ HR
14%
Hits
1+ hits
60%
Hits
2+ hits
19%
Total Bases
2+ bases
38%
Total Bases
3+ bases
23%
Total Bases
4+ bases
17%
RBIs
1+ RBI
27%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
10%
THE READ
Stands out most on 1+ HR — 14% against 11% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 7 · bats L
- Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
- Facing Drew Rasmussen
Chase DeLauter
CLE · bats L · slot 3
Home Run
1+ HR
13%
Hits
1+ hits
68%
Hits
2+ hits
27%
Total Bases
2+ bases
43%
Total Bases
3+ bases
27%
Total Bases
4+ bases
18%
RBIs
1+ RBI
31%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
11%
THE READ
Stands out most on 4+ bases — 18% against 14% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 3 · bats L
- Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
- Facing Drew Rasmussen
Steven Kwan
CLE · bats L · slot 1
Home Run
1+ HR
5%
Hits
1+ hits
66%
Hits
2+ hits
26%
Total Bases
2+ bases
38%
Total Bases
3+ bases
19%
Total Bases
4+ bases
11%
RBIs
1+ RBI
21%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
5%
THE READ
Stands out most on 2+ hits — 26% against 23% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 1 · bats L
- Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
- Facing Drew Rasmussen
Chandler Simpson
TB · bats L · slot 5
Home Run
1+ HR
6%
Hits
1+ hits
68%
Hits
2+ hits
26%
Total Bases
2+ bases
38%
Total Bases
3+ bases
20%
Total Bases
4+ bases
11%
RBIs
1+ RBI
28%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
9%
THE READ
Stands out most on 2+ hits — 26% against 23% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 5 · bats L
- Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
- Facing Parker Messick
Travis Bazzana
CLE · bats L · slot 5
Home Run
1+ HR
11%
Hits
1+ hits
63%
Hits
2+ hits
21%
Total Bases
2+ bases
36%
Total Bases
3+ bases
21%
Total Bases
4+ bases
14%
RBIs
1+ RBI
28%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
11%
THE READ
Stands out most on 2+ RBIs — 11% against 10% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 5 · bats L
- Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
- Facing Drew Rasmussen
José Ramírez
CLE · slot 2
Home Run
1+ HR
12%
Hits
1+ hits
64%
Hits
2+ hits
24%
Total Bases
2+ bases
39%
Total Bases
3+ bases
23%
Total Bases
4+ bases
16%
RBIs
1+ RBI
27%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
9%
THE READ
Stands out most on 4+ bases — 16% against 14% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 2
- Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
- Facing Drew Rasmussen
Brayan Rocchio
CLE · bats S · slot 4
Home Run
1+ HR
9%
Hits
1+ hits
65%
Hits
2+ hits
25%
Total Bases
2+ bases
37%
Total Bases
3+ bases
20%
Total Bases
4+ bases
12%
RBIs
1+ RBI
28%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
10%
THE READ
Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 65%.
- Batting 4 · bats S
- Facing Drew Rasmussen
Jonny DeLuca
TB · bats R · slot 4
Home Run
1+ HR
8%
Hits
1+ hits
62%
Hits
2+ hits
23%
Total Bases
2+ bases
34%
Total Bases
3+ bases
18%
Total Bases
4+ bases
11%
RBIs
1+ RBI
28%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
9%
THE READ
Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 62%.
- Batting 4 · bats R
- Facing Parker Messick
Angel Martínez
CLE · slot 6
Home Run
1+ HR
11%
Hits
1+ hits
58%
Hits
2+ hits
18%
Total Bases
2+ bases
32%
Total Bases
3+ bases
18%
Total Bases
4+ bases
13%
RBIs
1+ RBI
25%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
9%
THE READ
Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 58%.
- Batting 6
- Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
- Facing Drew Rasmussen
Nick Fortes
TB · bats R · slot 8
Home Run
1+ HR
8%
Hits
1+ hits
63%
Hits
2+ hits
22%
Total Bases
2+ bases
35%
Total Bases
3+ bases
19%
Total Bases
4+ bases
11%
RBIs
1+ RBI
26%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
9%
THE READ
Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 63%.
- Batting 8 · bats R
- Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
- Facing Parker Messick
Ben Williamson
TB · bats R · slot 6
Home Run
1+ HR
6%
Hits
1+ hits
62%
Hits
2+ hits
22%
Total Bases
2+ bases
33%
Total Bases
3+ bases
17%
Total Bases
4+ bases
9%
RBIs
1+ RBI
25%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
8%
THE READ
Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 62%.
- Batting 6 · bats R
- Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
- Facing Parker Messick
Austin Hedges
CLE · bats R · slot 8
Home Run
1+ HR
10%
Hits
1+ hits
60%
Hits
2+ hits
21%
Total Bases
2+ bases
34%
Total Bases
3+ bases
19%
Total Bases
4+ bases
13%
RBIs
1+ RBI
24%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
9%
THE READ
Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 60%.
- Batting 8 · bats R
- Facing Drew Rasmussen
Cedric Mullins
TB · bats L · slot 7
Home Run
1+ HR
6%
Hits
1+ hits
58%
Hits
2+ hits
18%
Total Bases
2+ bases
29%
Total Bases
3+ bases
14%
Total Bases
4+ bases
9%
RBIs
1+ RBI
23%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
7%
THE READ
Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 58% against 64%.
- Batting 7 · bats L
- Facing Parker Messick
Petey Halpin
CLE · slot 9
Home Run
1+ HR
8%
Hits
1+ hits
56%
Hits
2+ hits
17%
Total Bases
2+ bases
29%
Total Bases
3+ bases
15%
Total Bases
4+ bases
10%
RBIs
1+ RBI
22%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
7%
THE READ
Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 56% against 64%.
- Batting 9
- Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
- Facing Drew Rasmussen
Richie Palacios
TB · bats L · slot 9
Home Run
1+ HR
7%
Hits
1+ hits
55%
Hits
2+ hits
15%
Total Bases
2+ bases
27%
Total Bases
3+ bases
13%
Total Bases
4+ bases
8%
RBIs
1+ RBI
21%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
6%
THE READ
Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 55% against 64%.
- Batting 9 · bats L
- Facing Parker Messick
III · METHODOLOGY
How this read was built.
- Simulation. 5,000 Monte Carlo trials of this game using real play-by-play data, confirmed lineups, pitcher quality, bullpen depth, defensive runs saved, catcher framing, umpire K-zones, and per-batter rates regressed with empirical Bayes.
- What the number means. The share of those 5,000 trials in which the outcome happened — the model's own estimate, not a claim that a sportsbook has mispriced it. We publish it next to the reasoning that produced it and let the settlement record below speak for itself.
- Settlement. Every read on this page is graded by Kalshi's own settlement market once the game ends. The post-game version of this page shows what was confirmed and what was missed.
DISCLOSURE
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