AI MODEL READ
SETTLEDCHC vs PIT
Chicago Cubs at Pittsburgh Pirates
Sunday, July 26, 2026
SIMULATION · ONE TRIAL, EVERY MARKET
Watch the model run this game.
One representative trial from the CHC @ PIT simulation — real per-AB batter, outcome, and score progression from the spine. Every game-level market updates in lock-step with each play.
FIELD
PITCH SEQUENCE
CHC Leadoff (R) vs HP
OUTCOME DISTRIBUTION
CHC Leadoff in this spot
BATTER PROPS · CHC LEADOFF
PITCHER PROPS · HP
GAME MARKETS · LIVE
updating per event
MONEYLINE
PIT to win
TOTAL
Over 8.5
RUN LINE
PIT -1.5
TEAM TOTAL PIT
Over 4.5
FIRST 5 INN
PIT wins F5
event 1 / 19 · pitching
Every card on the board is a live read. As the game changes, the math changes with it — every prop, every market line, in real time. Cards turn green when they hit, red when they miss.
I · GAME-LEVEL MODEL
Win probability + total.
GAME WINNER
✓ CONFIRMEDChicago C vs Pittsburgh Winner?
5,000-TRIAL SIMULATION
GAME TOTAL
✓ CONFIRMEDPIT Over 4.5 runs
5,000-TRIAL SIMULATION
vulnerable matchup · straight from our 5,000-trial sim · lineup is 34-for-115 (.296) with 5 HR vs. this starter, career
II · EVERY MARKET WE RAN
Swipe the whole board.
One card per hitter and pitcher, plus the game markets — the sim's own number on every line it priced, with the reasoning that produced it.
169 simulated lines · raw sim
1 / 21
Game Markets
CHC @ PIT · full-game reads
Moneyline
PIT to win
62%
1st 5 Innings
PIT F5
57%
Game Total
Over 8.5
71%
1st 5 Total
Over 4.5
65%
Run Line
PIT -1.5
50%
Team Total
CHC Over 4.5
50%
Team Total
PIT Over 4.5
66%
THE READ
PIT projects to outscore CHC by 1.28 runs across 5,000 trials.
- Projected runs: CHC 5.03, PIT 6.31
- Jameson Taillon (CHC) vs Braxton Ashcraft (PIT)
- Run on confirmed lineups
Jameson Taillon
CHC SP · vs. PIT
Strikeouts
5+ Ks
44%
Strikeouts
6+ Ks
25%
Strikeouts
7+ Ks
12%
Strikeouts
8+ Ks
5%
Strikeouts
9+ Ks
2%
Outs Recorded
15+ outs
50%
Outs Recorded
18+ outs
11%
Hits Allowed
5+ hits
64%
Hits Allowed
6+ hits
51%
THE READ
Middle-of-the-road strikeout projection at 4.3 Ks.
- Sim projects 4.3 strikeouts
- 44% to reach 5+ against PIT
Braxton Ashcraft
PIT SP · vs. CHC
Strikeouts
5+ Ks
75%
Strikeouts
6+ Ks
59%
Strikeouts
7+ Ks
41%
Strikeouts
8+ Ks
26%
Strikeouts
9+ Ks
15%
Outs Recorded
15+ outs
73%
Outs Recorded
18+ outs
40%
Hits Allowed
5+ hits
57%
Hits Allowed
6+ hits
43%
THE READ
Strikeout-heavy projection — the sim has him at 6.1 Ks, with the ladder still live into the 8+ rung.
- Sim projects 6.1 strikeouts
- 75% to reach 5+ against CHC
Esmerlyn Valdez
PIT · bats R · slot 4
Home Run
1+ HR
39%
Hits
1+ hits
80%
Hits
2+ hits
42%
Total Bases
2+ bases
63%
Total Bases
3+ bases
50%
Total Bases
4+ bases
44%
RBIs
1+ RBI
57%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
34%
THE READ
Stands out most on 1+ HR — 39% against 17% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 4 · bats R
- Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
- Facing Jameson Taillon
Brandon Lowe
PIT · bats L · slot 2
Home Run
1+ HR
29%
Hits
1+ hits
76%
Hits
2+ hits
39%
Total Bases
2+ bases
57%
Total Bases
3+ bases
43%
Total Bases
4+ bases
35%
RBIs
1+ RBI
48%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
24%
THE READ
Stands out most on 1+ HR — 29% against 17% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 2 · bats L
- Facing Jameson Taillon
Pete Crow-Armstrong
CHC · bats L · slot 1
Home Run
1+ HR
26%
Hits
1+ hits
77%
Hits
2+ hits
40%
Total Bases
2+ bases
57%
Total Bases
3+ bases
42%
Total Bases
4+ bases
34%
RBIs
1+ RBI
42%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
19%
THE READ
Stands out most on 1+ HR — 26% against 17% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 1 · bats L
- Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
- Facing Braxton Ashcraft
Ryan O'Hearn
PIT · bats L · slot 5
Home Run
1+ HR
21%
Hits
1+ hits
74%
Hits
2+ hits
35%
Total Bases
2+ bases
52%
Total Bases
3+ bases
35%
Total Bases
4+ bases
26%
RBIs
1+ RBI
43%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
20%
THE READ
Stands out most on 1+ HR — 21% against 17% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 5 · bats L
- Facing Jameson Taillon
Bryan Reynolds
PIT · bats S · slot 3
Home Run
1+ HR
20%
Hits
1+ hits
76%
Hits
2+ hits
37%
Total Bases
2+ bases
54%
Total Bases
3+ bases
38%
Total Bases
4+ bases
28%
RBIs
1+ RBI
42%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
20%
THE READ
Stands out most on 4+ bases — 28% against 22% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 3 · bats S
- Cold on results, but hitting the ball well
- Facing Jameson Taillon
Jake Mangum
PIT · bats S · slot 1
Home Run
1+ HR
9%
Hits
1+ hits
78%
Hits
2+ hits
39%
Total Bases
2+ bases
51%
Total Bases
3+ bases
31%
Total Bases
4+ bases
18%
RBIs
1+ RBI
32%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
11%
THE READ
Stands out most on 2+ hits — 39% against 32% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 1 · bats S
- Facing Jameson Taillon
Seiya Suzuki
CHC · bats R · slot 2
Home Run
1+ HR
20%
Hits
1+ hits
75%
Hits
2+ hits
36%
Total Bases
2+ bases
53%
Total Bases
3+ bases
36%
Total Bases
4+ bases
26%
RBIs
1+ RBI
38%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
17%
THE READ
Stands out most on 4+ bases — 26% against 22% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 2 · bats R
- Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
- Facing Braxton Ashcraft
Ian Happ
CHC · bats S · slot 4
Home Run
1+ HR
18%
Hits
1+ hits
69%
Hits
2+ hits
28%
Total Bases
2+ bases
46%
Total Bases
3+ bases
30%
Total Bases
4+ bases
23%
RBIs
1+ RBI
39%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
18%
THE READ
Stands out most on 2+ RBIs — 18% against 16% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 4 · bats S
- Facing Braxton Ashcraft
Nick Gonzales
PIT · bats R · slot 6
Home Run
1+ HR
9%
Hits
1+ hits
75%
Hits
2+ hits
35%
Total Bases
2+ bases
47%
Total Bases
3+ bases
27%
Total Bases
4+ bases
17%
RBIs
1+ RBI
33%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
12%
THE READ
Stands out most on 2+ hits — 35% against 32% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 6 · bats R
- Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
- Facing Jameson Taillon
Michael Conforto
CHC · bats L · slot 6
Home Run
1+ HR
17%
Hits
1+ hits
69%
Hits
2+ hits
29%
Total Bases
2+ bases
47%
Total Bases
3+ bases
29%
Total Bases
4+ bases
22%
RBIs
1+ RBI
36%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
16%
THE READ
Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 69%.
- Batting 6 · bats L
- Facing Braxton Ashcraft
Jacob Gonzalez
PIT · bats L · slot 7
Home Run
1+ HR
14%
Hits
1+ hits
71%
Hits
2+ hits
29%
Total Bases
2+ bases
44%
Total Bases
3+ bases
27%
Total Bases
4+ bases
19%
RBIs
1+ RBI
35%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
14%
THE READ
Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 71%.
- Batting 7 · bats L
- Facing Jameson Taillon
Michael Busch
CHC · bats L · slot 3
Home Run
1+ HR
14%
Hits
1+ hits
69%
Hits
2+ hits
30%
Total Bases
2+ bases
46%
Total Bases
3+ bases
29%
Total Bases
4+ bases
20%
RBIs
1+ RBI
34%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
14%
THE READ
Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 69%.
- Batting 3 · bats L
- Facing Braxton Ashcraft
Pedro Ramírez
CHC · bats S · slot 8
Home Run
1+ HR
10%
Hits
1+ hits
69%
Hits
2+ hits
29%
Total Bases
2+ bases
43%
Total Bases
3+ bases
25%
Total Bases
4+ bases
15%
RBIs
1+ RBI
32%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
12%
THE READ
Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 69%.
- Batting 8 · bats S
- Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
- Facing Braxton Ashcraft
Shawn Ross
PIT · slot 8
Home Run
1+ HR
12%
Hits
1+ hits
69%
Hits
2+ hits
27%
Total Bases
2+ bases
41%
Total Bases
3+ bases
24%
Total Bases
4+ bases
16%
RBIs
1+ RBI
34%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
13%
THE READ
Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 69%.
- Batting 8
- Facing Jameson Taillon
Tyler Callihan
PIT · bats L · slot 9
Home Run
1+ HR
15%
Hits
1+ hits
68%
Hits
2+ hits
27%
Total Bases
2+ bases
42%
Total Bases
3+ bases
27%
Total Bases
4+ bases
19%
RBIs
1+ RBI
35%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
14%
THE READ
Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 68%.
- Batting 9 · bats L
- Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
- Facing Jameson Taillon
Carson Kelly
CHC · bats R · slot 7
Home Run
1+ HR
8%
Hits
1+ hits
64%
Hits
2+ hits
24%
Total Bases
2+ bases
36%
Total Bases
3+ bases
20%
Total Bases
4+ bases
12%
RBIs
1+ RBI
28%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
9%
THE READ
Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 64% against 71%.
- Batting 7 · bats R
- Facing Braxton Ashcraft
Nico Hoerner
CHC · bats R · slot 5
Home Run
1+ HR
4%
Hits
1+ hits
64%
Hits
2+ hits
24%
Total Bases
2+ bases
33%
Total Bases
3+ bases
16%
Total Bases
4+ bases
8%
RBIs
1+ RBI
27%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
8%
THE READ
Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 64% against 71%.
- Batting 5 · bats R
- Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
- Facing Braxton Ashcraft
Dansby Swanson
CHC · bats R · slot 9
Home Run
1+ HR
13%
Hits
1+ hits
62%
Hits
2+ hits
22%
Total Bases
2+ bases
37%
Total Bases
3+ bases
22%
Total Bases
4+ bases
16%
RBIs
1+ RBI
31%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
12%
THE READ
Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 62% against 71%.
- Batting 9 · bats R
- Facing Braxton Ashcraft
III · METHODOLOGY
How this read was built.
- Simulation. 5,000 Monte Carlo trials of this game using real play-by-play data, confirmed lineups, pitcher quality, bullpen depth, defensive runs saved, catcher framing, umpire K-zones, and per-batter rates regressed with empirical Bayes.
- What the number means. The share of those 5,000 trials in which the outcome happened — the model's own estimate, not a claim that a sportsbook has mispriced it. We publish it next to the reasoning that produced it and let the settlement record below speak for itself.
- Settlement. Every read on this page is graded by Kalshi's own settlement market once the game ends. The post-game version of this page shows what was confirmed and what was missed.
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