AI MODEL READ
SETTLEDATL vs BAL
Atlanta Braves at Baltimore Orioles
Sunday, July 26, 2026
SIMULATION · ONE TRIAL, EVERY MARKET
Watch the model run this game.
One representative trial from the ATL @ BAL simulation — real per-AB batter, outcome, and score progression from the spine. Every game-level market updates in lock-step with each play.
FIELD
PITCH SEQUENCE
ATL Leadoff (R) vs HP
OUTCOME DISTRIBUTION
ATL Leadoff in this spot
BATTER PROPS · ATL LEADOFF
PITCHER PROPS · HP
GAME MARKETS · LIVE
updating per event
MONEYLINE
BAL to win
TOTAL
Over 8.5
RUN LINE
BAL -1.5
TEAM TOTAL BAL
Over 4.5
FIRST 5 INN
BAL wins F5
event 1 / 16 · pitching
Every card on the board is a live read. As the game changes, the math changes with it — every prop, every market line, in real time. Cards turn green when they hit, red when they miss.
I · GAME-LEVEL MODEL
Win probability + total.
GAME WINNER
✗ MISSEDAtlanta vs Baltimore Winner?
5,000-TRIAL SIMULATION
II · EVERY MARKET WE RAN
Swipe the whole board.
One card per hitter and pitcher, plus the game markets — the sim's own number on every line it priced, with the reasoning that produced it.
169 simulated lines · raw sim
1 / 21
Game Markets
ATL @ BAL · full-game reads
Moneyline
ATL to win
54%
1st 5 Innings
BAL F5
44%
Game Total
Over 8.5
69%
1st 5 Total
Over 4.5
71%
Run Line
BAL -1.5
34%
Team Total
ATL Over 4.5
61%
Team Total
BAL Over 4.5
55%
THE READ
ATL projects to outscore BAL by 0.57 runs across 5,000 trials.
- Projected runs: ATL 5.90, BAL 5.33
- Reynaldo López (ATL) vs Shane Baz (BAL)
- Run on confirmed lineups
Reynaldo López
ATL SP · vs. BAL
Strikeouts
5+ Ks
54%
Strikeouts
6+ Ks
32%
Strikeouts
7+ Ks
17%
Strikeouts
8+ Ks
7%
Strikeouts
9+ Ks
3%
Outs Recorded
15+ outs
87%
Outs Recorded
18+ outs
20%
Hits Allowed
5+ hits
67%
Hits Allowed
6+ hits
53%
THE READ
Middle-of-the-road strikeout projection at 4.7 Ks.
- Sim projects 4.7 strikeouts
- 54% to reach 5+ against BAL
Shane Baz
BAL SP · vs. ATL
Strikeouts
5+ Ks
49%
Strikeouts
6+ Ks
31%
Strikeouts
7+ Ks
17%
Strikeouts
8+ Ks
9%
Strikeouts
9+ Ks
4%
Outs Recorded
15+ outs
97%
Outs Recorded
18+ outs
79%
Hits Allowed
5+ hits
83%
Hits Allowed
6+ hits
73%
THE READ
Middle-of-the-road strikeout projection at 4.6 Ks.
- Sim projects 4.6 strikeouts
- 49% to reach 5+ against ATL
Matt Olson
ATL · bats L · slot 3
Home Run
1+ HR
30%
Hits
1+ hits
76%
Hits
2+ hits
39%
Total Bases
2+ bases
58%
Total Bases
3+ bases
43%
Total Bases
4+ bases
36%
RBIs
1+ RBI
48%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
23%
THE READ
Stands out most on 1+ HR — 30% against 17% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 3 · bats L
- Facing Shane Baz
Drake Baldwin
ATL · bats L · slot 1
Home Run
1+ HR
30%
Hits
1+ hits
80%
Hits
2+ hits
43%
Total Bases
2+ bases
61%
Total Bases
3+ bases
46%
Total Bases
4+ bases
37%
RBIs
1+ RBI
46%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
22%
THE READ
Stands out most on 1+ HR — 30% against 17% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 1 · bats L
- Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
- Facing Shane Baz
Pete Alonso
BAL · bats R · slot 2
Home Run
1+ HR
28%
Hits
1+ hits
75%
Hits
2+ hits
36%
Total Bases
2+ bases
55%
Total Bases
3+ bases
40%
Total Bases
4+ bases
33%
RBIs
1+ RBI
45%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
23%
THE READ
Stands out most on 1+ HR — 28% against 17% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 2 · bats R
- Facing Reynaldo López
Michael Harris II
ATL · bats L · slot 4
Home Run
1+ HR
27%
Hits
1+ hits
79%
Hits
2+ hits
42%
Total Bases
2+ bases
59%
Total Bases
3+ bases
44%
Total Bases
4+ bases
34%
RBIs
1+ RBI
50%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
24%
THE READ
Stands out most on 1+ HR — 27% against 17% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 4 · bats L
- Facing Shane Baz
Dylan Beavers
BAL · bats L · slot 1
Home Run
1+ HR
13%
Hits
1+ hits
74%
Hits
2+ hits
36%
Total Bases
2+ bases
49%
Total Bases
3+ bases
30%
Total Bases
4+ bases
20%
RBIs
1+ RBI
35%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
13%
THE READ
Stands out most on 2+ hits — 36% against 31% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 1 · bats L
- Facing Reynaldo López
Gunnar Henderson
BAL · bats L · slot 3
Home Run
1+ HR
19%
Hits
1+ hits
69%
Hits
2+ hits
30%
Total Bases
2+ bases
46%
Total Bases
3+ bases
31%
Total Bases
4+ bases
23%
RBIs
1+ RBI
38%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
18%
THE READ
Stands out most on 1+ HR — 19% against 17% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 3 · bats L
- Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
- Facing Reynaldo López
Christian Encarnacion-Strand
BAL · slot 5
Home Run
1+ HR
17%
Hits
1+ hits
70%
Hits
2+ hits
30%
Total Bases
2+ bases
47%
Total Bases
3+ bases
30%
Total Bases
4+ bases
22%
RBIs
1+ RBI
39%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
18%
THE READ
Stands out most on 2+ RBIs — 18% against 16% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 5
- Facing Reynaldo López
Dominic Smith
ATL · bats L · slot 6
Home Run
1+ HR
15%
Hits
1+ hits
71%
Hits
2+ hits
32%
Total Bases
2+ bases
47%
Total Bases
3+ bases
29%
Total Bases
4+ bases
20%
RBIs
1+ RBI
35%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
14%
THE READ
Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 71%.
- Batting 6 · bats L
- Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
- Facing Shane Baz
Taylor Ward
BAL · bats R · slot 4
Home Run
1+ HR
11%
Hits
1+ hits
71%
Hits
2+ hits
30%
Total Bases
2+ bases
45%
Total Bases
3+ bases
27%
Total Bases
4+ bases
17%
RBIs
1+ RBI
33%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
13%
THE READ
Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 71%.
- Batting 4 · bats R
- Facing Reynaldo López
Mauricio Dubón
ATL · bats R · slot 5
Home Run
1+ HR
11%
Hits
1+ hits
71%
Hits
2+ hits
31%
Total Bases
2+ bases
43%
Total Bases
3+ bases
26%
Total Bases
4+ bases
17%
RBIs
1+ RBI
34%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
12%
THE READ
Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 71%.
- Batting 5 · bats R
- Facing Shane Baz
Ozzie Albies
ATL · bats S · slot 2
Home Run
1+ HR
15%
Hits
1+ hits
70%
Hits
2+ hits
31%
Total Bases
2+ bases
45%
Total Bases
3+ bases
28%
Total Bases
4+ bases
20%
RBIs
1+ RBI
34%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
14%
THE READ
Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 70%.
- Batting 2 · bats S
- Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
- Facing Shane Baz
Jim Jarvis
ATL · bats L · slot 9
Home Run
1+ HR
15%
Hits
1+ hits
70%
Hits
2+ hits
30%
Total Bases
2+ bases
46%
Total Bases
3+ bases
28%
Total Bases
4+ bases
20%
RBIs
1+ RBI
36%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
14%
THE READ
Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 70%.
- Batting 9 · bats L
- Facing Shane Baz
Colton Cowser
BAL · bats L · slot 6
Home Run
1+ HR
16%
Hits
1+ hits
66%
Hits
2+ hits
26%
Total Bases
2+ bases
41%
Total Bases
3+ bases
26%
Total Bases
4+ bases
19%
RBIs
1+ RBI
35%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
15%
THE READ
Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 66%.
- Batting 6 · bats L
- Facing Reynaldo López
Mike Yastrzemski
ATL · slot 8
Home Run
1+ HR
14%
Hits
1+ hits
68%
Hits
2+ hits
28%
Total Bases
2+ bases
44%
Total Bases
3+ bases
27%
Total Bases
4+ bases
18%
RBIs
1+ RBI
33%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
13%
THE READ
Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 68%.
- Batting 8
- Facing Shane Baz
Austin Riley
ATL · bats R · slot 7
Home Run
1+ HR
15%
Hits
1+ hits
66%
Hits
2+ hits
26%
Total Bases
2+ bases
41%
Total Bases
3+ bases
25%
Total Bases
4+ bases
18%
RBIs
1+ RBI
32%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
13%
THE READ
Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 66% against 70%.
- Batting 7 · bats R
- Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
- Facing Shane Baz
Chadwick Tromp
BAL · slot 9
Home Run
1+ HR
12%
Hits
1+ hits
66%
Hits
2+ hits
25%
Total Bases
2+ bases
41%
Total Bases
3+ bases
23%
Total Bases
4+ bases
16%
RBIs
1+ RBI
33%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
14%
THE READ
Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 66% against 70%.
- Batting 9
- Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
- Facing Reynaldo López
Leody Taveras
BAL · bats S · slot 7
Home Run
1+ HR
7%
Hits
1+ hits
64%
Hits
2+ hits
24%
Total Bases
2+ bases
35%
Total Bases
3+ bases
18%
Total Bases
4+ bases
11%
RBIs
1+ RBI
29%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
10%
THE READ
Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 64% against 70%.
- Batting 7 · bats S
- Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
- Facing Reynaldo López
Jackson Holliday
BAL · bats L · slot 8
Home Run
1+ HR
12%
Hits
1+ hits
64%
Hits
2+ hits
22%
Total Bases
2+ bases
37%
Total Bases
3+ bases
21%
Total Bases
4+ bases
15%
RBIs
1+ RBI
31%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
12%
THE READ
Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 64% against 70%.
- Batting 8 · bats L
- Facing Reynaldo López
III · METHODOLOGY
How this read was built.
- Simulation. 5,000 Monte Carlo trials of this game using real play-by-play data, confirmed lineups, pitcher quality, bullpen depth, defensive runs saved, catcher framing, umpire K-zones, and per-batter rates regressed with empirical Bayes.
- What the number means. The share of those 5,000 trials in which the outcome happened — the model's own estimate, not a claim that a sportsbook has mispriced it. We publish it next to the reasoning that produced it and let the settlement record below speak for itself.
- Settlement. Every read on this page is graded by Kalshi's own settlement market once the game ends. The post-game version of this page shows what was confirmed and what was missed.
DISCLOSURE
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