AI MODEL READ
SETTLEDATH vs MIN
ATH at Minnesota Twins
Sunday, July 26, 2026
SIMULATION · ONE TRIAL, EVERY MARKET
Watch the model run this game.
One representative trial from the ATH @ MIN simulation — real per-AB batter, outcome, and score progression from the spine. Every game-level market updates in lock-step with each play.
FIELD
PITCH SEQUENCE
ATH Leadoff (R) vs HP
OUTCOME DISTRIBUTION
ATH Leadoff in this spot
BATTER PROPS · ATH LEADOFF
PITCHER PROPS · HP
GAME MARKETS · LIVE
updating per event
MONEYLINE
MIN to win
TOTAL
Over 8.5
RUN LINE
MIN -1.5
TEAM TOTAL MIN
Over 4.5
FIRST 5 INN
MIN wins F5
event 1 / 19 · pitching
Every card on the board is a live read. As the game changes, the math changes with it — every prop, every market line, in real time. Cards turn green when they hit, red when they miss.
I · EVERY MARKET WE RAN
Swipe the whole board.
One card per hitter and pitcher, plus the game markets — the sim's own number on every line it priced, with the reasoning that produced it.
97 simulated lines · raw sim
1 / 12
Game Markets
ATH @ MIN · full-game reads
Moneyline
MIN to win
61%
1st 5 Innings
MIN F5
54%
Game Total
Over 8.5
59%
1st 5 Total
Over 4.5
61%
Run Line
MIN -1.5
47%
Team Total
ATH Over 4.5
44%
Team Total
MIN Over 4.5
58%
THE READ
MIN projects to outscore ATH by 1.06 runs across 5,000 trials.
- Projected runs: ATH 4.48, MIN 5.54
- Jeffrey Springs (ATH) vs Connor Prielipp (MIN)
- Run on league-average lineups — refreshes when lineups post
Jeffrey Springs
ATH SP · vs. MIN
Strikeouts
5+ Ks
17%
Strikeouts
6+ Ks
7%
Strikeouts
7+ Ks
2%
Strikeouts
8+ Ks
1%
Strikeouts
9+ Ks
0%
Outs Recorded
15+ outs
29%
Outs Recorded
18+ outs
2%
Hits Allowed
5+ hits
55%
Hits Allowed
6+ hits
42%
THE READ
Low-strikeout projection at 3.0 Ks — the ladder thins out fast above the first rung.
- Sim projects 3.0 strikeouts
- 17% to reach 5+ against MIN
Connor Prielipp
MIN SP · vs. ATH
Strikeouts
5+ Ks
53%
Strikeouts
6+ Ks
34%
Strikeouts
7+ Ks
18%
Strikeouts
8+ Ks
8%
Strikeouts
9+ Ks
3%
Outs Recorded
15+ outs
89%
Outs Recorded
18+ outs
21%
Hits Allowed
5+ hits
57%
Hits Allowed
6+ hits
41%
THE READ
Middle-of-the-road strikeout projection at 4.8 Ks.
- Sim projects 4.8 strikeouts
- 53% to reach 5+ against ATH
Byron Buxton
MIN · bats R · slot 2
Home Run
1+ HR
28%
Hits
1+ hits
80%
Hits
2+ hits
42%
Total Bases
2+ bases
61%
Total Bases
3+ bases
45%
Total Bases
4+ bases
35%
RBIs
1+ RBI
47%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
25%
THE READ
Stands out most on 1+ HR — 28% against 15% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 2 · bats R
- Facing Jeffrey Springs
Kody Clemens
MIN · bats L · slot 5
Home Run
1+ HR
23%
Hits
1+ hits
73%
Hits
2+ hits
33%
Total Bases
2+ bases
52%
Total Bases
3+ bases
36%
Total Bases
4+ bases
28%
RBIs
1+ RBI
44%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
22%
THE READ
Stands out most on 1+ HR — 23% against 15% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 5 · bats L
- Facing Jeffrey Springs
Ryan Jeffers
MIN · slot 3
Home Run
1+ HR
19%
Hits
1+ hits
75%
Hits
2+ hits
35%
Total Bases
2+ bases
51%
Total Bases
3+ bases
35%
Total Bases
4+ bases
25%
RBIs
1+ RBI
41%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
18%
THE READ
Stands out most on 1+ HR — 19% against 15% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 3
- Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
- Facing Jeffrey Springs
Alex Jackson
MIN · bats R · slot 7
Home Run
1+ HR
16%
Hits
1+ hits
75%
Hits
2+ hits
34%
Total Bases
2+ bases
51%
Total Bases
3+ bases
33%
Total Bases
4+ bases
22%
RBIs
1+ RBI
39%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
18%
THE READ
Stands out most on 3+ bases — 33% against 29% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 7 · bats R
- Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
- Facing Jeffrey Springs
Royce Lewis
MIN · bats R · slot 4
Home Run
1+ HR
16%
Hits
1+ hits
69%
Hits
2+ hits
29%
Total Bases
2+ bases
43%
Total Bases
3+ bases
27%
Total Bases
4+ bases
20%
RBIs
1+ RBI
37%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
17%
THE READ
Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 69%.
- Batting 4 · bats R
- Facing Jeffrey Springs
Austin Martin
MIN · bats R · slot 1
Home Run
1+ HR
8%
Hits
1+ hits
68%
Hits
2+ hits
29%
Total Bases
2+ bases
39%
Total Bases
3+ bases
21%
Total Bases
4+ bases
12%
RBIs
1+ RBI
26%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
9%
THE READ
Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 68%.
- Batting 1 · bats R
- Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
- Facing Jeffrey Springs
Luke Keaschall
MIN · bats R · slot 6
Home Run
1+ HR
7%
Hits
1+ hits
68%
Hits
2+ hits
27%
Total Bases
2+ bases
39%
Total Bases
3+ bases
20%
Total Bases
4+ bases
12%
RBIs
1+ RBI
30%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
11%
THE READ
Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 68%.
- Batting 6 · bats R
- Facing Jeffrey Springs
Brooks Lee
MIN · bats S · slot 8
Home Run
1+ HR
12%
Hits
1+ hits
64%
Hits
2+ hits
24%
Total Bases
2+ bases
38%
Total Bases
3+ bases
22%
Total Bases
4+ bases
15%
RBIs
1+ RBI
31%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
13%
THE READ
Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 64% against 70%.
- Batting 8 · bats S
- Facing Jeffrey Springs
Ryan Kreidler
MIN · bats R · slot 9
Home Run
1+ HR
10%
Hits
1+ hits
63%
Hits
2+ hits
23%
Total Bases
2+ bases
36%
Total Bases
3+ bases
20%
Total Bases
4+ bases
14%
RBIs
1+ RBI
30%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
12%
THE READ
Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 63% against 70%.
- Batting 9 · bats R
- Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
- Facing Jeffrey Springs
II · METHODOLOGY
How this read was built.
- Simulation. 5,000 Monte Carlo trials of this game using real play-by-play data, confirmed lineups, pitcher quality, bullpen depth, defensive runs saved, catcher framing, umpire K-zones, and per-batter rates regressed with empirical Bayes.
- What the number means. The share of those 5,000 trials in which the outcome happened — the model's own estimate, not a claim that a sportsbook has mispriced it. We publish it next to the reasoning that produced it and let the settlement record below speak for itself.
- Settlement. Every read on this page is graded by Kalshi's own settlement market once the game ends. The post-game version of this page shows what was confirmed and what was missed.
DISCLOSURE
BetFly is not a sportsbook, prediction market, or wagering operator. The model reads above are sabermetric simulation output — not advice or a recommendation on whether or how to bet. See our Disclaimer for the full risk disclosure.