AI MODEL READ
SETTLEDSD vs MIA
San Diego Padres at Miami Marlins
Saturday, July 25, 2026
SIMULATION · ONE TRIAL, EVERY MARKET
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One representative trial from the SD @ MIA simulation — real per-AB batter, outcome, and score progression from the spine. Every game-level market updates in lock-step with each play.
FIELD
PITCH SEQUENCE
SD Leadoff (R) vs HP
OUTCOME DISTRIBUTION
SD Leadoff in this spot
BATTER PROPS · SD LEADOFF
PITCHER PROPS · HP
GAME MARKETS · LIVE
updating per event
MONEYLINE
MIA to win
TOTAL
Over 8.5
RUN LINE
MIA -1.5
TEAM TOTAL MIA
Over 4.5
FIRST 5 INN
MIA wins F5
event 1 / 24 · pitching
Every card on the board is a live read. As the game changes, the math changes with it — every prop, every market line, in real time. Cards turn green when they hit, red when they miss.
I · GAME-LEVEL MODEL
Win probability + total.
GAME WINNER
✓ CONFIRMEDSan Diego vs Miami Winner?
5,000-TRIAL SIMULATION
II · EVERY MARKET WE RAN
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One card per hitter and pitcher, plus the game markets — the sim's own number on every line it priced, with the reasoning that produced it.
169 simulated lines · raw sim
1 / 21
Game Markets
SD @ MIA · full-game reads
Moneyline
MIA to win
60%
1st 5 Innings
MIA F5
54%
Game Total
Over 8.5
57%
1st 5 Total
Over 4.5
56%
Run Line
MIA -1.5
45%
Team Total
SD Over 4.5
43%
Team Total
MIA Over 4.5
55%
THE READ
MIA projects to outscore SD by 0.83 runs across 5,000 trials.
- Projected runs: SD 4.42, MIA 5.25
- Randy Vásquez (SD) vs Eury Pérez (MIA)
- Run on confirmed lineups
Randy Vásquez
SD SP · vs. MIA
Strikeouts
5+ Ks
12%
Strikeouts
6+ Ks
4%
Strikeouts
7+ Ks
1%
Strikeouts
8+ Ks
0%
Strikeouts
9+ Ks
0%
Outs Recorded
15+ outs
20%
Outs Recorded
18+ outs
1%
Hits Allowed
5+ hits
50%
Hits Allowed
6+ hits
36%
THE READ
Low-strikeout projection at 2.7 Ks — the ladder thins out fast above the first rung.
- Sim projects 2.7 strikeouts
- 12% to reach 5+ against MIA
Eury Pérez
MIA SP · vs. SD
Strikeouts
5+ Ks
84%
Strikeouts
6+ Ks
69%
Strikeouts
7+ Ks
51%
Strikeouts
8+ Ks
34%
Strikeouts
9+ Ks
19%
Outs Recorded
15+ outs
85%
Outs Recorded
18+ outs
40%
Hits Allowed
5+ hits
49%
Hits Allowed
6+ hits
35%
THE READ
Strikeout-heavy projection — the sim has him at 6.7 Ks, with the ladder still live into the 8+ rung.
- Sim projects 6.7 strikeouts
- 84% to reach 5+ against SD
Heriberto Hernández
MIA · bats R · slot 3
Home Run
1+ HR
28%
Hits
1+ hits
75%
Hits
2+ hits
36%
Total Bases
2+ bases
55%
Total Bases
3+ bases
40%
Total Bases
4+ bases
33%
RBIs
1+ RBI
46%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
23%
THE READ
Stands out most on 1+ HR — 28% against 15% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 3 · bats R
- Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
- Facing Randy Vásquez
Ty France
SD · bats R · slot 4
Home Run
1+ HR
26%
Hits
1+ hits
72%
Hits
2+ hits
32%
Total Bases
2+ bases
51%
Total Bases
3+ bases
37%
Total Bases
4+ bases
30%
RBIs
1+ RBI
43%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
22%
THE READ
Stands out most on 1+ HR — 26% against 15% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 4 · bats R
- Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
- Facing Eury Pérez
Griffin Conine
MIA · bats L · slot 7
Home Run
1+ HR
25%
Hits
1+ hits
72%
Hits
2+ hits
33%
Total Bases
2+ bases
53%
Total Bases
3+ bases
37%
Total Bases
4+ bases
30%
RBIs
1+ RBI
44%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
21%
THE READ
Stands out most on 1+ HR — 25% against 15% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 7 · bats L
- Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
- Facing Randy Vásquez
Manny Machado
SD · bats R · slot 3
Home Run
1+ HR
25%
Hits
1+ hits
67%
Hits
2+ hits
27%
Total Bases
2+ bases
48%
Total Bases
3+ bases
34%
Total Bases
4+ bases
28%
RBIs
1+ RBI
40%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
19%
THE READ
Stands out most on 1+ HR — 25% against 15% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 3 · bats R
- Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
- Facing Eury Pérez
Otto Lopez
MIA · bats R · slot 1
Home Run
1+ HR
15%
Hits
1+ hits
80%
Hits
2+ hits
43%
Total Bases
2+ bases
57%
Total Bases
3+ bases
38%
Total Bases
4+ bases
25%
RBIs
1+ RBI
35%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
14%
THE READ
Stands out most on 2+ hits — 43% against 27% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 1 · bats R
- Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
- Facing Randy Vásquez
Kyle Stowers
MIA · bats L · slot 2
Home Run
1+ HR
22%
Hits
1+ hits
72%
Hits
2+ hits
34%
Total Bases
2+ bases
51%
Total Bases
3+ bases
35%
Total Bases
4+ bases
28%
RBIs
1+ RBI
40%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
19%
THE READ
Stands out most on 1+ HR — 22% against 15% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 2 · bats L
- Facing Randy Vásquez
Fernando Tatis Jr.
SD · bats R · slot 1
Home Run
1+ HR
11%
Hits
1+ hits
74%
Hits
2+ hits
34%
Total Bases
2+ bases
50%
Total Bases
3+ bases
30%
Total Bases
4+ bases
20%
RBIs
1+ RBI
29%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
11%
THE READ
Stands out most on 2+ hits — 34% against 27% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 1 · bats R
- Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
- Facing Eury Pérez
Liam Hicks
MIA · bats L · slot 5
Home Run
1+ HR
16%
Hits
1+ hits
70%
Hits
2+ hits
28%
Total Bases
2+ bases
44%
Total Bases
3+ bases
28%
Total Bases
4+ bases
20%
RBIs
1+ RBI
36%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
16%
THE READ
Stands out most on 2+ RBIs — 16% against 14% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 5 · bats L
- Facing Randy Vásquez
Gavin Sheets
SD · bats L · slot 7
Home Run
1+ HR
17%
Hits
1+ hits
61%
Hits
2+ hits
21%
Total Bases
2+ bases
39%
Total Bases
3+ bases
25%
Total Bases
4+ bases
19%
RBIs
1+ RBI
32%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
14%
THE READ
Stands out most on 1+ HR — 17% against 15% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 7 · bats L
- Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
- Facing Eury Pérez
Xavier Edwards
MIA · bats S · slot 4
Home Run
1+ HR
8%
Hits
1+ hits
70%
Hits
2+ hits
29%
Total Bases
2+ bases
41%
Total Bases
3+ bases
22%
Total Bases
4+ bases
13%
RBIs
1+ RBI
32%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
11%
THE READ
Stands out most on 2+ hits — 29% against 27% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 4 · bats S
- Facing Randy Vásquez
Esteury Ruiz
MIA · bats R · slot 8
Home Run
1+ HR
14%
Hits
1+ hits
64%
Hits
2+ hits
23%
Total Bases
2+ bases
39%
Total Bases
3+ bases
24%
Total Bases
4+ bases
17%
RBIs
1+ RBI
32%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
14%
THE READ
Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 64%.
- Batting 8 · bats R
- Facing Randy Vásquez
Javier Sanoja
MIA · bats R · slot 6
Home Run
1+ HR
6%
Hits
1+ hits
67%
Hits
2+ hits
24%
Total Bases
2+ bases
35%
Total Bases
3+ bases
17%
Total Bases
4+ bases
10%
RBIs
1+ RBI
28%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
9%
THE READ
Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 67%.
- Batting 6 · bats R
- Facing Randy Vásquez
Jackson Merrill
SD · bats L · slot 5
Home Run
1+ HR
15%
Hits
1+ hits
65%
Hits
2+ hits
23%
Total Bases
2+ bases
40%
Total Bases
3+ bases
25%
Total Bases
4+ bases
18%
RBIs
1+ RBI
32%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
12%
THE READ
Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 65%.
- Batting 5 · bats L
- Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
- Facing Eury Pérez
Luis Rengifo
SD · slot 6
Home Run
1+ HR
8%
Hits
1+ hits
62%
Hits
2+ hits
22%
Total Bases
2+ bases
35%
Total Bases
3+ bases
18%
Total Bases
4+ bases
11%
RBIs
1+ RBI
25%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
8%
THE READ
Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 62% against 66%.
- Batting 6
- Hot streak, thin underlying support
- Facing Eury Pérez
Jake Cronenworth
SD · bats L · slot 2
Home Run
1+ HR
9%
Hits
1+ hits
62%
Hits
2+ hits
23%
Total Bases
2+ bases
36%
Total Bases
3+ bases
19%
Total Bases
4+ bases
12%
RBIs
1+ RBI
26%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
9%
THE READ
Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 62% against 66%.
- Batting 2 · bats L
- Facing Eury Pérez
Xander Bogaerts
SD · bats R · slot 8
Home Run
1+ HR
9%
Hits
1+ hits
57%
Hits
2+ hits
18%
Total Bases
2+ bases
32%
Total Bases
3+ bases
18%
Total Bases
4+ bases
12%
RBIs
1+ RBI
24%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
9%
THE READ
Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 57% against 66%.
- Batting 8 · bats R
- Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
- Facing Eury Pérez
Jakob Marsee
MIA · bats L · slot 9
Home Run
1+ HR
5%
Hits
1+ hits
53%
Hits
2+ hits
15%
Total Bases
2+ bases
25%
Total Bases
3+ bases
12%
Total Bases
4+ bases
7%
RBIs
1+ RBI
22%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
6%
THE READ
Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 53% against 66%.
- Batting 9 · bats L
- Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
- Facing Randy Vásquez
Freddy Fermin
SD · slot 9
Home Run
1+ HR
6%
Hits
1+ hits
51%
Hits
2+ hits
14%
Total Bases
2+ bases
24%
Total Bases
3+ bases
12%
Total Bases
4+ bases
7%
RBIs
1+ RBI
21%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
6%
THE READ
Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 51% against 66%.
- Batting 9
- Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
- Facing Eury Pérez
III · METHODOLOGY
How this read was built.
- Simulation. 5,000 Monte Carlo trials of this game using real play-by-play data, confirmed lineups, pitcher quality, bullpen depth, defensive runs saved, catcher framing, umpire K-zones, and per-batter rates regressed with empirical Bayes.
- What the number means. The share of those 5,000 trials in which the outcome happened — the model's own estimate, not a claim that a sportsbook has mispriced it. We publish it next to the reasoning that produced it and let the settlement record below speak for itself.
- Settlement. Every read on this page is graded by Kalshi's own settlement market once the game ends. The post-game version of this page shows what was confirmed and what was missed.
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