AI MODEL READ
SETTLEDNYY vs PHI
New York Yankees at Philadelphia Phillies
Saturday, July 25, 2026
SIMULATION · ONE TRIAL, EVERY MARKET
Watch the model run this game.
One representative trial from the NYY @ PHI simulation — real per-AB batter, outcome, and score progression from the spine. Every game-level market updates in lock-step with each play.
FIELD
PITCH SEQUENCE
NYY Leadoff (R) vs HP
OUTCOME DISTRIBUTION
NYY Leadoff in this spot
BATTER PROPS · NYY LEADOFF
PITCHER PROPS · HP
GAME MARKETS · LIVE
updating per event
MONEYLINE
PHI to win
TOTAL
Over 8.5
RUN LINE
PHI -1.5
TEAM TOTAL PHI
Over 4.5
FIRST 5 INN
PHI wins F5
event 1 / 17 · pitching
Every card on the board is a live read. As the game changes, the math changes with it — every prop, every market line, in real time. Cards turn green when they hit, red when they miss.
I · GAME-LEVEL MODEL
Win probability + total.
GAME WINNER
✗ MISSEDNew York Y vs Philadelphia Winner?
5,000-TRIAL SIMULATION
sim-led read — sharp books close, not identical
GAME TOTAL
✗ MISSEDPHI Over 3.5 runs
5,000-TRIAL SIMULATION
vulnerable matchup · straight from our 5,000-trial sim · lineup is 10-for-31 (.323) with 5 HR vs. this starter, career · 84°F, 11mph wind
II · EVERY MARKET WE RAN
Swipe the whole board.
One card per hitter and pitcher, plus the game markets — the sim's own number on every line it priced, with the reasoning that produced it.
169 simulated lines · raw sim
1 / 21
Game Markets
NYY @ PHI · full-game reads
Moneyline
NYY to win
49%
1st 5 Innings
PHI F5
44%
Game Total
Over 8.5
59%
1st 5 Total
Over 4.5
57%
Run Line
PHI -1.5
37%
Team Total
NYY Over 4.5
51%
Team Total
PHI Over 4.5
50%
THE READ
The sim splits this one — 9.93 total runs with under a quarter-run between the sides.
- Projected runs: NYY 5.03, PHI 4.90
- Ryan Weathers (NYY) vs Tim Mayza (PHI)
- Run on confirmed lineups
Ryan Weathers
NYY SP · vs. PHI
Strikeouts
5+ Ks
83%
Strikeouts
6+ Ks
69%
Strikeouts
7+ Ks
51%
Strikeouts
8+ Ks
34%
Strikeouts
9+ Ks
21%
Outs Recorded
15+ outs
85%
Outs Recorded
18+ outs
44%
Hits Allowed
5+ hits
63%
Hits Allowed
6+ hits
49%
THE READ
Strikeout-heavy projection — the sim has him at 6.7 Ks, with the ladder still live into the 8+ rung.
- Sim projects 6.7 strikeouts
- 83% to reach 5+ against PHI
Tim Mayza
PHI SP · vs. NYY
Strikeouts
5+ Ks
79%
Strikeouts
6+ Ks
64%
Strikeouts
7+ Ks
46%
Strikeouts
8+ Ks
30%
Strikeouts
9+ Ks
17%
Outs Recorded
15+ outs
100%
Outs Recorded
18+ outs
98%
Hits Allowed
5+ hits
87%
Hits Allowed
6+ hits
79%
THE READ
Strikeout-heavy projection — the sim has him at 6.4 Ks, with the ladder still live into the 8+ rung.
- Sim projects 6.4 strikeouts
- 79% to reach 5+ against NYY
Kyle Schwarber
PHI · bats L · slot 2
Home Run
1+ HR
35%
Hits
1+ hits
74%
Hits
2+ hits
36%
Total Bases
2+ bases
58%
Total Bases
3+ bases
45%
Total Bases
4+ bases
39%
RBIs
1+ RBI
46%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
23%
THE READ
Stands out most on 1+ HR — 35% against 16% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 2 · bats L
- Cold on results, but hitting the ball well
- Facing Ryan Weathers
Ben Rice
NYY · bats L · slot 2
Home Run
1+ HR
27%
Hits
1+ hits
79%
Hits
2+ hits
43%
Total Bases
2+ bases
60%
Total Bases
3+ bases
44%
Total Bases
4+ bases
34%
RBIs
1+ RBI
43%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
20%
THE READ
Stands out most on 1+ HR — 27% against 16% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 2 · bats L
- Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
- Facing Tim Mayza
Paul Goldschmidt
NYY · bats R · slot 3
Home Run
1+ HR
22%
Hits
1+ hits
77%
Hits
2+ hits
38%
Total Bases
2+ bases
54%
Total Bases
3+ bases
37%
Total Bases
4+ bases
29%
RBIs
1+ RBI
41%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
18%
THE READ
Stands out most on 4+ bases — 29% against 21% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 3 · bats R
- Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
- Facing Tim Mayza
Derek Hill
PHI · bats R · slot 9
Home Run
1+ HR
21%
Hits
1+ hits
65%
Hits
2+ hits
24%
Total Bases
2+ bases
45%
Total Bases
3+ bases
30%
Total Bases
4+ bases
24%
RBIs
1+ RBI
36%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
16%
THE READ
Stands out most on 1+ HR — 21% against 16% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 9 · bats R
- Facing Ryan Weathers
Jazz Chisholm Jr.
NYY · bats L · slot 7
Home Run
1+ HR
17%
Hits
1+ hits
72%
Hits
2+ hits
32%
Total Bases
2+ bases
49%
Total Bases
3+ bases
32%
Total Bases
4+ bases
22%
RBIs
1+ RBI
37%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
16%
THE READ
Stands out most on 2+ RBIs — 16% against 14% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 7 · bats L
- Facing Tim Mayza
Trent Grisham
NYY · bats L · slot 5
Home Run
1+ HR
15%
Hits
1+ hits
72%
Hits
2+ hits
33%
Total Bases
2+ bases
49%
Total Bases
3+ bases
31%
Total Bases
4+ bases
22%
RBIs
1+ RBI
38%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
15%
THE READ
Stands out most on 2+ hits — 33% against 29% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 5 · bats L
- Facing Tim Mayza
Bryan De La Cruz
PHI · slot 6
Home Run
1+ HR
19%
Hits
1+ hits
69%
Hits
2+ hits
29%
Total Bases
2+ bases
47%
Total Bases
3+ bases
31%
Total Bases
4+ bases
23%
RBIs
1+ RBI
34%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
15%
THE READ
Stands out most on 1+ HR — 19% against 16% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 6
- Facing Ryan Weathers
Amed Rosario
NYY · bats R · slot 1
Home Run
1+ HR
16%
Hits
1+ hits
72%
Hits
2+ hits
33%
Total Bases
2+ bases
47%
Total Bases
3+ bases
30%
Total Bases
4+ bases
21%
RBIs
1+ RBI
32%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
12%
THE READ
Stands out most on 2+ hits — 33% against 29% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 1 · bats R
- Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
- Facing Tim Mayza
Bryce Harper
PHI · bats L · slot 3
Home Run
1+ HR
19%
Hits
1+ hits
69%
Hits
2+ hits
29%
Total Bases
2+ bases
47%
Total Bases
3+ bases
31%
Total Bases
4+ bases
23%
RBIs
1+ RBI
35%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
15%
THE READ
Stands out most on 1+ HR — 19% against 16% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 3 · bats L
- Facing Ryan Weathers
Trea Turner
PHI · bats R · slot 1
Home Run
1+ HR
16%
Hits
1+ hits
71%
Hits
2+ hits
30%
Total Bases
2+ bases
47%
Total Bases
3+ bases
30%
Total Bases
4+ bases
21%
RBIs
1+ RBI
31%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
12%
THE READ
Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 71%.
- Batting 1 · bats R
- Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
- Facing Ryan Weathers
Jasson Domínguez
NYY · bats S · slot 6
Home Run
1+ HR
9%
Hits
1+ hits
68%
Hits
2+ hits
29%
Total Bases
2+ bases
40%
Total Bases
3+ bases
22%
Total Bases
4+ bases
14%
RBIs
1+ RBI
31%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
12%
THE READ
Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 68%.
- Batting 6 · bats S
- Facing Tim Mayza
Alec Bohm
PHI · bats R · slot 4
Home Run
1+ HR
17%
Hits
1+ hits
66%
Hits
2+ hits
24%
Total Bases
2+ bases
41%
Total Bases
3+ bases
26%
Total Bases
4+ bases
20%
RBIs
1+ RBI
34%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
14%
THE READ
Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 66%.
- Batting 4 · bats R
- Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
- Facing Ryan Weathers
Cody Bellinger
NYY · bats L · slot 4
Home Run
1+ HR
10%
Hits
1+ hits
69%
Hits
2+ hits
29%
Total Bases
2+ bases
42%
Total Bases
3+ bases
23%
Total Bases
4+ bases
15%
RBIs
1+ RBI
31%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
11%
THE READ
Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 69%.
- Batting 4 · bats L
- Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
- Facing Tim Mayza
Edmundo Sosa
PHI · bats R · slot 5
Home Run
1+ HR
16%
Hits
1+ hits
67%
Hits
2+ hits
26%
Total Bases
2+ bases
43%
Total Bases
3+ bases
27%
Total Bases
4+ bases
20%
RBIs
1+ RBI
32%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
13%
THE READ
Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 67%.
- Batting 5 · bats R
- Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
- Facing Ryan Weathers
Austin Wells
NYY · bats L · slot 9
Home Run
1+ HR
12%
Hits
1+ hits
64%
Hits
2+ hits
23%
Total Bases
2+ bases
38%
Total Bases
3+ bases
23%
Total Bases
4+ bases
16%
RBIs
1+ RBI
30%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
11%
THE READ
Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 64% against 69%.
- Batting 9 · bats L
- Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
- Facing Tim Mayza
J.T. Realmuto
PHI · bats R · slot 7
Home Run
1+ HR
12%
Hits
1+ hits
64%
Hits
2+ hits
22%
Total Bases
2+ bases
37%
Total Bases
3+ bases
22%
Total Bases
4+ bases
16%
RBIs
1+ RBI
28%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
10%
THE READ
Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 64% against 69%.
- Batting 7 · bats R
- Facing Ryan Weathers
José Caballero
NYY · bats R · slot 8
Home Run
1+ HR
9%
Hits
1+ hits
63%
Hits
2+ hits
24%
Total Bases
2+ bases
36%
Total Bases
3+ bases
19%
Total Bases
4+ bases
12%
RBIs
1+ RBI
28%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
10%
THE READ
Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 63% against 69%.
- Batting 8 · bats R
- Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
- Facing Tim Mayza
Bryson Stott
PHI · bats L · slot 8
Home Run
1+ HR
7%
Hits
1+ hits
61%
Hits
2+ hits
19%
Total Bases
2+ bases
31%
Total Bases
3+ bases
17%
Total Bases
4+ bases
10%
RBIs
1+ RBI
23%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
7%
THE READ
Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 61% against 69%.
- Batting 8 · bats L
- Facing Ryan Weathers
III · METHODOLOGY
How this read was built.
- Simulation. 5,000 Monte Carlo trials of this game using real play-by-play data, confirmed lineups, pitcher quality, bullpen depth, defensive runs saved, catcher framing, umpire K-zones, and per-batter rates regressed with empirical Bayes.
- What the number means. The share of those 5,000 trials in which the outcome happened — the model's own estimate, not a claim that a sportsbook has mispriced it. We publish it next to the reasoning that produced it and let the settlement record below speak for itself.
- Settlement. Every read on this page is graded by Kalshi's own settlement market once the game ends. The post-game version of this page shows what was confirmed and what was missed.
DISCLOSURE
BetFly is not a sportsbook, prediction market, or wagering operator. The model reads above are sabermetric simulation output — not advice or a recommendation on whether or how to bet. See our Disclaimer for the full risk disclosure.