AI MODEL READ
SETTLEDLAD vs NYM
Los Angeles Dodgers at New York Mets
Saturday, July 25, 2026
SIMULATION · ONE TRIAL, EVERY MARKET
Watch the model run this game.
One representative trial from the LAD @ NYM simulation — real per-AB batter, outcome, and score progression from the spine. Every game-level market updates in lock-step with each play.
FIELD
PITCH SEQUENCE
LAD Leadoff (R) vs HP
OUTCOME DISTRIBUTION
LAD Leadoff in this spot
BATTER PROPS · LAD LEADOFF
PITCHER PROPS · HP
GAME MARKETS · LIVE
updating per event
MONEYLINE
NYM to win
TOTAL
Over 8.5
RUN LINE
NYM -1.5
TEAM TOTAL NYM
Over 4.5
FIRST 5 INN
NYM wins F5
event 1 / 20 · pitching
Every card on the board is a live read. As the game changes, the math changes with it — every prop, every market line, in real time. Cards turn green when they hit, red when they miss.
I · GAME-LEVEL MODEL
Win probability + total.
GAME WINNER
✗ MISSEDLos Angeles D vs New York M Winner?
5,000-TRIAL SIMULATION
II · EVERY MARKET WE RAN
Swipe the whole board.
One card per hitter and pitcher, plus the game markets — the sim's own number on every line it priced, with the reasoning that produced it.
169 simulated lines · raw sim
1 / 21
Game Markets
LAD @ NYM · full-game reads
Moneyline
LAD to win
67%
1st 5 Innings
NYM F5
30%
Game Total
Over 8.5
51%
1st 5 Total
Over 4.5
48%
Run Line
NYM -1.5
21%
Team Total
LAD Over 4.5
57%
Team Total
NYM Over 4.5
31%
THE READ
LAD projects to outscore NYM by 2.01 runs across 5,000 trials.
- Projected runs: LAD 5.52, NYM 3.52
- Yoshinobu Yamamoto (LAD) vs Nolan McLean (NYM)
- Run on confirmed lineups
Yoshinobu Yamamoto
LAD SP · vs. NYM
Strikeouts
5+ Ks
82%
Strikeouts
6+ Ks
68%
Strikeouts
7+ Ks
51%
Strikeouts
8+ Ks
35%
Strikeouts
9+ Ks
22%
Outs Recorded
15+ outs
98%
Outs Recorded
18+ outs
88%
Hits Allowed
5+ hits
71%
Hits Allowed
6+ hits
58%
THE READ
Strikeout-heavy projection — the sim has him at 6.7 Ks, with the ladder still live into the 8+ rung.
- Sim projects 6.7 strikeouts
- 82% to reach 5+ against NYM
Nolan McLean
NYM SP · vs. LAD
Strikeouts
5+ Ks
77%
Strikeouts
6+ Ks
61%
Strikeouts
7+ Ks
44%
Strikeouts
8+ Ks
27%
Strikeouts
9+ Ks
15%
Outs Recorded
15+ outs
85%
Outs Recorded
18+ outs
50%
Hits Allowed
5+ hits
64%
Hits Allowed
6+ hits
52%
THE READ
Strikeout-heavy projection — the sim has him at 6.2 Ks, with the ladder still live into the 8+ rung.
- Sim projects 6.2 strikeouts
- 77% to reach 5+ against LAD
Max Muncy
LAD · bats L · slot 4
Home Run
1+ HR
20%
Hits
1+ hits
71%
Hits
2+ hits
31%
Total Bases
2+ bases
49%
Total Bases
3+ bases
33%
Total Bases
4+ bases
26%
RBIs
1+ RBI
42%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
21%
THE READ
Stands out most on 2+ RBIs — 21% against 12% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 4 · bats L
- Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
- Facing Nolan McLean
Shohei Ohtani
LAD · bats L · slot 1
Home Run
1+ HR
22%
Hits
1+ hits
75%
Hits
2+ hits
37%
Total Bases
2+ bases
54%
Total Bases
3+ bases
38%
Total Bases
4+ bases
29%
RBIs
1+ RBI
39%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
17%
THE READ
Stands out most on 4+ bases — 29% against 18% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 1 · bats L
- Facing Nolan McLean
Dalton Rushing
LAD · bats L · slot 9
Home Run
1+ HR
19%
Hits
1+ hits
66%
Hits
2+ hits
26%
Total Bases
2+ bases
45%
Total Bases
3+ bases
30%
Total Bases
4+ bases
23%
RBIs
1+ RBI
37%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
17%
THE READ
Stands out most on 1+ HR — 19% against 14% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 9 · bats L
- Facing Nolan McLean
Freddie Freeman
LAD · bats L · slot 3
Home Run
1+ HR
16%
Hits
1+ hits
76%
Hits
2+ hits
37%
Total Bases
2+ bases
53%
Total Bases
3+ bases
35%
Total Bases
4+ bases
24%
RBIs
1+ RBI
39%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
16%
THE READ
Stands out most on 2+ hits — 37% against 26% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 3 · bats L
- Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
- Facing Nolan McLean
Andy Pages
LAD · bats R · slot 2
Home Run
1+ HR
19%
Hits
1+ hits
74%
Hits
2+ hits
35%
Total Bases
2+ bases
52%
Total Bases
3+ bases
34%
Total Bases
4+ bases
25%
RBIs
1+ RBI
39%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
17%
THE READ
Stands out most on 4+ bases — 25% against 18% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 2 · bats R
- Facing Nolan McLean
Mookie Betts
LAD · bats R · slot 5
Home Run
1+ HR
16%
Hits
1+ hits
67%
Hits
2+ hits
27%
Total Bases
2+ bases
43%
Total Bases
3+ bases
27%
Total Bases
4+ bases
20%
RBIs
1+ RBI
37%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
17%
THE READ
Stands out most on 2+ RBIs — 17% against 12% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 5 · bats R
- Facing Nolan McLean
Teoscar Hernández
LAD · bats R · slot 8
Home Run
1+ HR
14%
Hits
1+ hits
67%
Hits
2+ hits
27%
Total Bases
2+ bases
45%
Total Bases
3+ bases
28%
Total Bases
4+ bases
19%
RBIs
1+ RBI
35%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
15%
THE READ
Stands out most on 2+ RBIs — 15% against 12% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 8 · bats R
- Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
- Facing Nolan McLean
Tommy Edman
LAD · bats S · slot 6
Home Run
1+ HR
10%
Hits
1+ hits
70%
Hits
2+ hits
31%
Total Bases
2+ bases
44%
Total Bases
3+ bases
25%
Total Bases
4+ bases
16%
RBIs
1+ RBI
31%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
11%
THE READ
Stands out most on 2+ hits — 31% against 26% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 6 · bats S
- Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
- Facing Nolan McLean
Francisco Alvarez
NYM · bats R · slot 9
Home Run
1+ HR
16%
Hits
1+ hits
63%
Hits
2+ hits
22%
Total Bases
2+ bases
40%
Total Bases
3+ bases
25%
Total Bases
4+ bases
19%
RBIs
1+ RBI
29%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
12%
THE READ
Stands out most on 1+ HR — 16% against 14% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 9 · bats R
- Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
- Facing Yoshinobu Yamamoto
A.J. Ewing
NYM · bats L · slot 1
Home Run
1+ HR
12%
Hits
1+ hits
68%
Hits
2+ hits
28%
Total Bases
2+ bases
42%
Total Bases
3+ bases
24%
Total Bases
4+ bases
16%
RBIs
1+ RBI
26%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
8%
THE READ
Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 68%.
- Batting 1 · bats L
- Facing Yoshinobu Yamamoto
Carson Benge
NYM · bats L · slot 4
Home Run
1+ HR
11%
Hits
1+ hits
66%
Hits
2+ hits
26%
Total Bases
2+ bases
40%
Total Bases
3+ bases
23%
Total Bases
4+ bases
15%
RBIs
1+ RBI
29%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
10%
THE READ
Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 66%.
- Batting 4 · bats L
- Facing Yoshinobu Yamamoto
Francisco Lindor
NYM · bats S · slot 2
Home Run
1+ HR
13%
Hits
1+ hits
65%
Hits
2+ hits
25%
Total Bases
2+ bases
40%
Total Bases
3+ bases
24%
Total Bases
4+ bases
17%
RBIs
1+ RBI
28%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
10%
THE READ
Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 65%.
- Batting 2 · bats S
- Facing Yoshinobu Yamamoto
Luis Robert Jr.
NYM · slot 5
Home Run
1+ HR
12%
Hits
1+ hits
64%
Hits
2+ hits
24%
Total Bases
2+ bases
39%
Total Bases
3+ bases
23%
Total Bases
4+ bases
16%
RBIs
1+ RBI
29%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
11%
THE READ
Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 64%.
- Batting 5
- Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
- Facing Yoshinobu Yamamoto
Kyle Tucker
LAD · bats L · slot 7
Home Run
1+ HR
9%
Hits
1+ hits
63%
Hits
2+ hits
23%
Total Bases
2+ bases
37%
Total Bases
3+ bases
20%
Total Bases
4+ bases
13%
RBIs
1+ RBI
29%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
10%
THE READ
Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 63%.
- Batting 7 · bats L
- Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
- Facing Nolan McLean
Bo Bichette
NYM · bats R · slot 3
Home Run
1+ HR
7%
Hits
1+ hits
63%
Hits
2+ hits
23%
Total Bases
2+ bases
35%
Total Bases
3+ bases
18%
Total Bases
4+ bases
10%
RBIs
1+ RBI
24%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
7%
THE READ
Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 63% against 66%.
- Batting 3 · bats R
- Facing Yoshinobu Yamamoto
Brett Baty
NYM · bats L · slot 8
Home Run
1+ HR
8%
Hits
1+ hits
59%
Hits
2+ hits
18%
Total Bases
2+ bases
32%
Total Bases
3+ bases
17%
Total Bases
4+ bases
11%
RBIs
1+ RBI
21%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
7%
THE READ
Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 59% against 66%.
- Batting 8 · bats L
- Facing Yoshinobu Yamamoto
Jorge Polanco
NYM · slot 6
Home Run
1+ HR
9%
Hits
1+ hits
59%
Hits
2+ hits
20%
Total Bases
2+ bases
32%
Total Bases
3+ bases
17%
Total Bases
4+ bases
11%
RBIs
1+ RBI
24%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
8%
THE READ
Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 59% against 66%.
- Batting 6
- Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
- Facing Yoshinobu Yamamoto
Marcus Semien
NYM · slot 7
Home Run
1+ HR
12%
Hits
1+ hits
58%
Hits
2+ hits
18%
Total Bases
2+ bases
34%
Total Bases
3+ bases
20%
Total Bases
4+ bases
14%
RBIs
1+ RBI
26%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
8%
THE READ
Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 58% against 66%.
- Batting 7
- Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
- Facing Yoshinobu Yamamoto
III · METHODOLOGY
How this read was built.
- Simulation. 5,000 Monte Carlo trials of this game using real play-by-play data, confirmed lineups, pitcher quality, bullpen depth, defensive runs saved, catcher framing, umpire K-zones, and per-batter rates regressed with empirical Bayes.
- What the number means. The share of those 5,000 trials in which the outcome happened — the model's own estimate, not a claim that a sportsbook has mispriced it. We publish it next to the reasoning that produced it and let the settlement record below speak for itself.
- Settlement. Every read on this page is graded by Kalshi's own settlement market once the game ends. The post-game version of this page shows what was confirmed and what was missed.
DISCLOSURE
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