AI MODEL READ
SETTLEDLAA vs SF
Los Angeles Angels at San Francisco Giants
Saturday, July 25, 2026
SIMULATION · ONE TRIAL, EVERY MARKET
Watch the model run this game.
One representative trial from the LAA @ SF simulation — real per-AB batter, outcome, and score progression from the spine. Every game-level market updates in lock-step with each play.
FIELD
PITCH SEQUENCE
LAA Leadoff (R) vs HP
OUTCOME DISTRIBUTION
LAA Leadoff in this spot
BATTER PROPS · LAA LEADOFF
PITCHER PROPS · HP
GAME MARKETS · LIVE
updating per event
MONEYLINE
SF to win
TOTAL
Over 8.5
RUN LINE
SF -1.5
TEAM TOTAL SF
Over 4.5
FIRST 5 INN
SF wins F5
event 1 / 18 · pitching
Every card on the board is a live read. As the game changes, the math changes with it — every prop, every market line, in real time. Cards turn green when they hit, red when they miss.
I · GAME-LEVEL MODEL
Win probability + total.
GAME WINNER
✗ MISSEDLos Angeles A vs San Francisco Winner?
5,000-TRIAL SIMULATION
II · EVERY MARKET WE RAN
Swipe the whole board.
One card per hitter and pitcher, plus the game markets — the sim's own number on every line it priced, with the reasoning that produced it.
169 simulated lines · raw sim
1 / 21
Game Markets
LAA @ SF · full-game reads
Moneyline
LAA to win
50%
1st 5 Innings
SF F5
43%
Game Total
Over 8.5
69%
1st 5 Total
Over 4.5
69%
Run Line
SF -1.5
37%
Team Total
LAA Over 4.5
59%
Team Total
SF Over 4.5
57%
THE READ
LAA projects to outscore SF by 0.34 runs across 5,000 trials.
- Projected runs: LAA 5.80, SF 5.47
- Ryan Johnson (LAA) vs Robbie Ray (SF)
- Run on confirmed lineups
Ryan Johnson
LAA SP · vs. SF
Strikeouts
5+ Ks
30%
Strikeouts
6+ Ks
15%
Strikeouts
7+ Ks
6%
Strikeouts
8+ Ks
2%
Strikeouts
9+ Ks
1%
Outs Recorded
15+ outs
66%
Outs Recorded
18+ outs
12%
Hits Allowed
5+ hits
64%
Hits Allowed
6+ hits
51%
THE READ
Low-strikeout projection at 3.7 Ks — the ladder thins out fast above the first rung.
- Sim projects 3.7 strikeouts
- 30% to reach 5+ against SF
Robbie Ray
SF SP · vs. LAA
Strikeouts
5+ Ks
73%
Strikeouts
6+ Ks
57%
Strikeouts
7+ Ks
41%
Strikeouts
8+ Ks
28%
Strikeouts
9+ Ks
16%
Outs Recorded
15+ outs
88%
Outs Recorded
18+ outs
72%
Hits Allowed
5+ hits
77%
Hits Allowed
6+ hits
67%
THE READ
Strikeout-heavy projection — the sim has him at 6.1 Ks, with the ladder still live into the 8+ rung.
- Sim projects 6.1 strikeouts
- 73% to reach 5+ against LAA
Rafael Devers
SF · bats L · slot 4
Home Run
1+ HR
26%
Hits
1+ hits
75%
Hits
2+ hits
35%
Total Bases
2+ bases
55%
Total Bases
3+ bases
39%
Total Bases
4+ bases
31%
RBIs
1+ RBI
46%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
25%
THE READ
Stands out most on 1+ HR — 26% against 16% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 4 · bats L
- Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
- Facing Ryan Johnson
Jo Adell
LAA · bats R · slot 6
Home Run
1+ HR
25%
Hits
1+ hits
73%
Hits
2+ hits
33%
Total Bases
2+ bases
52%
Total Bases
3+ bases
37%
Total Bases
4+ bases
30%
RBIs
1+ RBI
44%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
22%
THE READ
Stands out most on 1+ HR — 25% against 16% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 6 · bats R
- Facing Robbie Ray
Zach Neto
LAA · bats R · slot 1
Home Run
1+ HR
23%
Hits
1+ hits
75%
Hits
2+ hits
36%
Total Bases
2+ bases
53%
Total Bases
3+ bases
37%
Total Bases
4+ bases
28%
RBIs
1+ RBI
40%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
18%
THE READ
Stands out most on 1+ HR — 23% against 16% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 1 · bats R
- Facing Robbie Ray
Jose Siri
LAA · bats R · slot 8
Home Run
1+ HR
22%
Hits
1+ hits
71%
Hits
2+ hits
31%
Total Bases
2+ bases
50%
Total Bases
3+ bases
34%
Total Bases
4+ bases
27%
RBIs
1+ RBI
40%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
19%
THE READ
Stands out most on 1+ HR — 22% against 16% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 8 · bats R
- Facing Robbie Ray
Mike Trout
LAA · slot 2
Home Run
1+ HR
22%
Hits
1+ hits
72%
Hits
2+ hits
33%
Total Bases
2+ bases
50%
Total Bases
3+ bases
35%
Total Bases
4+ bases
27%
RBIs
1+ RBI
40%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
18%
THE READ
Stands out most on 1+ HR — 22% against 16% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 2
- Facing Robbie Ray
Bryce Eldridge
SF · bats L · slot 3
Home Run
1+ HR
21%
Hits
1+ hits
75%
Hits
2+ hits
36%
Total Bases
2+ bases
52%
Total Bases
3+ bases
36%
Total Bases
4+ bases
27%
RBIs
1+ RBI
43%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
20%
THE READ
Stands out most on 1+ HR — 21% against 16% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 3 · bats L
- Facing Ryan Johnson
Casey Schmitt
SF · bats R · slot 5
Home Run
1+ HR
21%
Hits
1+ hits
72%
Hits
2+ hits
33%
Total Bases
2+ bases
50%
Total Bases
3+ bases
33%
Total Bases
4+ bases
25%
RBIs
1+ RBI
42%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
20%
THE READ
Stands out most on 1+ HR — 21% against 16% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 5 · bats R
- Cold on results, but hitting the ball well
- Facing Ryan Johnson
Heliot Ramos
SF · bats R · slot 2
Home Run
1+ HR
20%
Hits
1+ hits
77%
Hits
2+ hits
39%
Total Bases
2+ bases
56%
Total Bases
3+ bases
37%
Total Bases
4+ bases
27%
RBIs
1+ RBI
42%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
19%
THE READ
Stands out most on 4+ bases — 27% against 21% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 2 · bats R
- Facing Ryan Johnson
Luis Arraez
SF · bats L · slot 1
Home Run
1+ HR
7%
Hits
1+ hits
77%
Hits
2+ hits
39%
Total Bases
2+ bases
50%
Total Bases
3+ bases
28%
Total Bases
4+ bases
16%
RBIs
1+ RBI
30%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
10%
THE READ
Stands out most on 2+ hits — 39% against 31% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 1 · bats L
- Facing Ryan Johnson
Willy Adames
SF · bats R · slot 7
Home Run
1+ HR
20%
Hits
1+ hits
68%
Hits
2+ hits
27%
Total Bases
2+ bases
46%
Total Bases
3+ bases
30%
Total Bases
4+ bases
24%
RBIs
1+ RBI
37%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
16%
THE READ
Stands out most on 1+ HR — 20% against 16% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 7 · bats R
- Facing Ryan Johnson
Nolan Schanuel
LAA · bats L · slot 5
Home Run
1+ HR
14%
Hits
1+ hits
69%
Hits
2+ hits
30%
Total Bases
2+ bases
44%
Total Bases
3+ bases
27%
Total Bases
4+ bases
18%
RBIs
1+ RBI
38%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
17%
THE READ
Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 69%.
- Batting 5 · bats L
- Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
- Facing Robbie Ray
Vaughn Grissom
LAA · bats R · slot 3
Home Run
1+ HR
12%
Hits
1+ hits
71%
Hits
2+ hits
32%
Total Bases
2+ bases
46%
Total Bases
3+ bases
27%
Total Bases
4+ bases
19%
RBIs
1+ RBI
37%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
15%
THE READ
Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 71%.
- Batting 3 · bats R
- Facing Robbie Ray
Jorge Soler
LAA · bats R · slot 4
Home Run
1+ HR
13%
Hits
1+ hits
67%
Hits
2+ hits
27%
Total Bases
2+ bases
42%
Total Bases
3+ bases
25%
Total Bases
4+ bases
18%
RBIs
1+ RBI
37%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
17%
THE READ
Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 67%.
- Batting 4 · bats R
- Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
- Facing Robbie Ray
Jung Hoo Lee
SF · bats L · slot 6
Home Run
1+ HR
8%
Hits
1+ hits
71%
Hits
2+ hits
32%
Total Bases
2+ bases
44%
Total Bases
3+ bases
24%
Total Bases
4+ bases
13%
RBIs
1+ RBI
32%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
12%
THE READ
Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 71%.
- Batting 6 · bats L
- Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
- Facing Ryan Johnson
Denzer Guzman
LAA · bats R · slot 7
Home Run
1+ HR
12%
Hits
1+ hits
66%
Hits
2+ hits
26%
Total Bases
2+ bases
40%
Total Bases
3+ bases
23%
Total Bases
4+ bases
16%
RBIs
1+ RBI
31%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
12%
THE READ
Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 66% against 71%.
- Batting 7 · bats R
- Facing Robbie Ray
Drew Gilbert
SF · bats L · slot 8
Home Run
1+ HR
9%
Hits
1+ hits
66%
Hits
2+ hits
25%
Total Bases
2+ bases
38%
Total Bases
3+ bases
21%
Total Bases
4+ bases
13%
RBIs
1+ RBI
29%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
10%
THE READ
Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 66% against 71%.
- Batting 8 · bats L
- Facing Ryan Johnson
Logan O'Hoppe
LAA · bats R · slot 9
Home Run
1+ HR
11%
Hits
1+ hits
65%
Hits
2+ hits
25%
Total Bases
2+ bases
39%
Total Bases
3+ bases
23%
Total Bases
4+ bases
15%
RBIs
1+ RBI
31%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
12%
THE READ
Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 65% against 71%.
- Batting 9 · bats R
- Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
- Facing Robbie Ray
Daniel Susac
SF · slot 9
Home Run
1+ HR
6%
Hits
1+ hits
63%
Hits
2+ hits
22%
Total Bases
2+ bases
33%
Total Bases
3+ bases
17%
Total Bases
4+ bases
10%
RBIs
1+ RBI
26%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
8%
THE READ
Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 63% against 71%.
- Batting 9
- Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
- Facing Ryan Johnson
III · METHODOLOGY
How this read was built.
- Simulation. 5,000 Monte Carlo trials of this game using real play-by-play data, confirmed lineups, pitcher quality, bullpen depth, defensive runs saved, catcher framing, umpire K-zones, and per-batter rates regressed with empirical Bayes.
- What the number means. The share of those 5,000 trials in which the outcome happened — the model's own estimate, not a claim that a sportsbook has mispriced it. We publish it next to the reasoning that produced it and let the settlement record below speak for itself.
- Settlement. Every read on this page is graded by Kalshi's own settlement market once the game ends. The post-game version of this page shows what was confirmed and what was missed.
DISCLOSURE
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