AI MODEL READ
SETTLEDKC vs DET
Kansas City Royals at Detroit Tigers
Saturday, July 25, 2026
SIMULATION · ONE TRIAL, EVERY MARKET
Watch the model run this game.
One representative trial from the KC @ DET simulation — real per-AB batter, outcome, and score progression from the spine. Every game-level market updates in lock-step with each play.
FIELD
PITCH SEQUENCE
KC Leadoff (R) vs HP
OUTCOME DISTRIBUTION
KC Leadoff in this spot
BATTER PROPS · KC LEADOFF
PITCHER PROPS · HP
GAME MARKETS · LIVE
updating per event
MONEYLINE
DET to win
TOTAL
Over 8.5
RUN LINE
DET -1.5
TEAM TOTAL DET
Over 4.5
FIRST 5 INN
DET wins F5
event 1 / 22 · pitching
Every card on the board is a live read. As the game changes, the math changes with it — every prop, every market line, in real time. Cards turn green when they hit, red when they miss.
I · GAME-LEVEL MODEL
Win probability + total.
GAME WINNER
✗ MISSEDKansas City vs Detroit Winner?
5,000-TRIAL SIMULATION
sim-led read — sharp books close, not identical
II · EVERY MARKET WE RAN
Swipe the whole board.
One card per hitter and pitcher, plus the game markets — the sim's own number on every line it priced, with the reasoning that produced it.
169 simulated lines · raw sim
1 / 21
Game Markets
KC @ DET · full-game reads
Moneyline
DET to win
65%
1st 5 Innings
DET F5
58%
Game Total
Over 8.5
51%
1st 5 Total
Over 4.5
54%
Run Line
DET -1.5
52%
Team Total
KC Over 4.5
35%
Team Total
DET Over 4.5
55%
THE READ
DET projects to outscore KC by 1.47 runs across 5,000 trials.
- Projected runs: KC 3.82, DET 5.29
- Michael Wacha (KC) vs Casey Mize (DET)
- Run on confirmed lineups
Michael Wacha
KC SP · vs. DET
Strikeouts
5+ Ks
34%
Strikeouts
6+ Ks
18%
Strikeouts
7+ Ks
8%
Strikeouts
8+ Ks
3%
Strikeouts
9+ Ks
2%
Outs Recorded
15+ outs
87%
Outs Recorded
18+ outs
55%
Hits Allowed
5+ hits
77%
Hits Allowed
6+ hits
65%
THE READ
Low-strikeout projection at 3.9 Ks — the ladder thins out fast above the first rung.
- Sim projects 3.9 strikeouts
- 34% to reach 5+ against DET
Casey Mize
DET SP · vs. KC
Strikeouts
5+ Ks
64%
Strikeouts
6+ Ks
47%
Strikeouts
7+ Ks
31%
Strikeouts
8+ Ks
18%
Strikeouts
9+ Ks
10%
Outs Recorded
15+ outs
66%
Outs Recorded
18+ outs
36%
Hits Allowed
5+ hits
47%
Hits Allowed
6+ hits
33%
THE READ
Middle-of-the-road strikeout projection at 5.5 Ks.
- Sim projects 5.5 strikeouts
- 64% to reach 5+ against KC
Kerry Carpenter
DET · bats L · slot 4
Home Run
1+ HR
27%
Hits
1+ hits
73%
Hits
2+ hits
34%
Total Bases
2+ bases
54%
Total Bases
3+ bases
40%
Total Bases
4+ bases
32%
RBIs
1+ RBI
49%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
26%
THE READ
Stands out most on 2+ RBIs — 26% against 12% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 4 · bats L
- Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
- Facing Michael Wacha
Riley Greene
DET · bats L · slot 5
Home Run
1+ HR
23%
Hits
1+ hits
79%
Hits
2+ hits
40%
Total Bases
2+ bases
59%
Total Bases
3+ bases
40%
Total Bases
4+ bases
30%
RBIs
1+ RBI
47%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
23%
THE READ
Stands out most on 2+ RBIs — 23% against 12% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 5 · bats L
- Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
- Facing Michael Wacha
Colt Keith
DET · bats L · slot 1
Home Run
1+ HR
15%
Hits
1+ hits
76%
Hits
2+ hits
38%
Total Bases
2+ bases
51%
Total Bases
3+ bases
32%
Total Bases
4+ bases
21%
RBIs
1+ RBI
33%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
12%
THE READ
Stands out most on 2+ hits — 38% against 27% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 1 · bats L
- Facing Michael Wacha
Carter Jensen
KC · bats L · slot 1
Home Run
1+ HR
17%
Hits
1+ hits
67%
Hits
2+ hits
28%
Total Bases
2+ bases
44%
Total Bases
3+ bases
29%
Total Bases
4+ bases
22%
RBIs
1+ RBI
32%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
12%
THE READ
Stands out most on 1+ HR — 17% against 13% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 1 · bats L
- Facing Casey Mize
Gleyber Torres
DET · slot 3
Home Run
1+ HR
12%
Hits
1+ hits
76%
Hits
2+ hits
36%
Total Bases
2+ bases
50%
Total Bases
3+ bases
30%
Total Bases
4+ bases
19%
RBIs
1+ RBI
37%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
15%
THE READ
Stands out most on 2+ hits — 36% against 27% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 3
- Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
- Facing Michael Wacha
Kevin McGonigle
DET · bats L · slot 2
Home Run
1+ HR
13%
Hits
1+ hits
75%
Hits
2+ hits
36%
Total Bases
2+ bases
51%
Total Bases
3+ bases
31%
Total Bases
4+ bases
21%
RBIs
1+ RBI
34%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
12%
THE READ
Stands out most on 2+ hits — 36% against 27% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 2 · bats L
- Facing Michael Wacha
Jac Caglianone
KC · bats L · slot 3
Home Run
1+ HR
17%
Hits
1+ hits
70%
Hits
2+ hits
29%
Total Bases
2+ bases
47%
Total Bases
3+ bases
30%
Total Bases
4+ bases
22%
RBIs
1+ RBI
33%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
14%
THE READ
Stands out most on 1+ HR — 17% against 13% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 3 · bats L
- Cold on results, but hitting the ball well
- Facing Casey Mize
Hao-Yu Lee
DET · bats R · slot 6
Home Run
1+ HR
13%
Hits
1+ hits
71%
Hits
2+ hits
31%
Total Bases
2+ bases
44%
Total Bases
3+ bases
27%
Total Bases
4+ bases
18%
RBIs
1+ RBI
35%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
14%
THE READ
Stands out most on 2+ RBIs — 14% against 12% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 6 · bats R
- Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
- Facing Michael Wacha
Salvador Perez
KC · bats R · slot 4
Home Run
1+ HR
14%
Hits
1+ hits
61%
Hits
2+ hits
21%
Total Bases
2+ bases
36%
Total Bases
3+ bases
23%
Total Bases
4+ bases
17%
RBIs
1+ RBI
28%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
11%
THE READ
Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 61%.
- Batting 4 · bats R
- Facing Casey Mize
Vinnie Pasquantino
KC · slot 5
Home Run
1+ HR
11%
Hits
1+ hits
66%
Hits
2+ hits
25%
Total Bases
2+ bases
40%
Total Bases
3+ bases
23%
Total Bases
4+ bases
15%
RBIs
1+ RBI
27%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
9%
THE READ
Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 66%.
- Batting 5
- Facing Casey Mize
Lane Thomas
KC · bats R · slot 2
Home Run
1+ HR
11%
Hits
1+ hits
63%
Hits
2+ hits
24%
Total Bases
2+ bases
37%
Total Bases
3+ bases
20%
Total Bases
4+ bases
14%
RBIs
1+ RBI
27%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
9%
THE READ
Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 63% against 67%.
- Batting 2 · bats R
- Facing Casey Mize
Matt Vierling
DET · bats R · slot 8
Home Run
1+ HR
9%
Hits
1+ hits
63%
Hits
2+ hits
22%
Total Bases
2+ bases
35%
Total Bases
3+ bases
20%
Total Bases
4+ bases
12%
RBIs
1+ RBI
29%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
10%
THE READ
Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 63% against 67%.
- Batting 8 · bats R
- Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
- Facing Michael Wacha
Zach McKinstry
DET · bats L · slot 7
Home Run
1+ HR
8%
Hits
1+ hits
63%
Hits
2+ hits
22%
Total Bases
2+ bases
35%
Total Bases
3+ bases
18%
Total Bases
4+ bases
11%
RBIs
1+ RBI
27%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
10%
THE READ
Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 63% against 67%.
- Batting 7 · bats L
- Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
- Facing Michael Wacha
Michael Massey
KC · bats L · slot 7
Home Run
1+ HR
8%
Hits
1+ hits
62%
Hits
2+ hits
22%
Total Bases
2+ bases
34%
Total Bases
3+ bases
18%
Total Bases
4+ bases
11%
RBIs
1+ RBI
24%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
8%
THE READ
Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 62% against 67%.
- Batting 7 · bats L
- Facing Casey Mize
Jake Rogers
DET · bats R · slot 9
Home Run
1+ HR
11%
Hits
1+ hits
62%
Hits
2+ hits
22%
Total Bases
2+ bases
36%
Total Bases
3+ bases
20%
Total Bases
4+ bases
14%
RBIs
1+ RBI
28%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
10%
THE READ
Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 62% against 67%.
- Batting 9 · bats R
- Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
- Facing Michael Wacha
Isaac Collins
KC · bats S · slot 8
Home Run
1+ HR
8%
Hits
1+ hits
61%
Hits
2+ hits
21%
Total Bases
2+ bases
35%
Total Bases
3+ bases
18%
Total Bases
4+ bases
12%
RBIs
1+ RBI
25%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
8%
THE READ
Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 61% against 67%.
- Batting 8 · bats S
- Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
- Facing Casey Mize
Nick Loftin
KC · bats R · slot 6
Home Run
1+ HR
9%
Hits
1+ hits
61%
Hits
2+ hits
21%
Total Bases
2+ bases
34%
Total Bases
3+ bases
18%
Total Bases
4+ bases
12%
RBIs
1+ RBI
25%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
9%
THE READ
Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 61% against 67%.
- Batting 6 · bats R
- Facing Casey Mize
Andrew Velazquez
KC · slot 9
Home Run
1+ HR
10%
Hits
1+ hits
60%
Hits
2+ hits
20%
Total Bases
2+ bases
34%
Total Bases
3+ bases
19%
Total Bases
4+ bases
13%
RBIs
1+ RBI
27%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
10%
THE READ
Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 60% against 67%.
- Batting 9
- Facing Casey Mize
III · METHODOLOGY
How this read was built.
- Simulation. 5,000 Monte Carlo trials of this game using real play-by-play data, confirmed lineups, pitcher quality, bullpen depth, defensive runs saved, catcher framing, umpire K-zones, and per-batter rates regressed with empirical Bayes.
- What the number means. The share of those 5,000 trials in which the outcome happened — the model's own estimate, not a claim that a sportsbook has mispriced it. We publish it next to the reasoning that produced it and let the settlement record below speak for itself.
- Settlement. Every read on this page is graded by Kalshi's own settlement market once the game ends. The post-game version of this page shows what was confirmed and what was missed.
DISCLOSURE
BetFly is not a sportsbook, prediction market, or wagering operator. The model reads above are sabermetric simulation output — not advice or a recommendation on whether or how to bet. See our Disclaimer for the full risk disclosure.