AI MODEL READ
SETTLEDHOU vs CWS
Houston Astros at Chicago White Sox
Saturday, July 25, 2026
SIMULATION · ONE TRIAL, EVERY MARKET
Watch the model run this game.
One representative trial from the HOU @ CWS simulation — real per-AB batter, outcome, and score progression from the spine. Every game-level market updates in lock-step with each play.
FIELD
PITCH SEQUENCE
HOU Leadoff (R) vs HP
OUTCOME DISTRIBUTION
HOU Leadoff in this spot
BATTER PROPS · HOU LEADOFF
PITCHER PROPS · HP
GAME MARKETS · LIVE
updating per event
MONEYLINE
CWS to win
TOTAL
Over 8.5
RUN LINE
CWS -1.5
TEAM TOTAL CWS
Over 4.5
FIRST 5 INN
CWS wins F5
event 1 / 13 · pitching
Every card on the board is a live read. As the game changes, the math changes with it — every prop, every market line, in real time. Cards turn green when they hit, red when they miss.
I · GAME-LEVEL MODEL
Win probability + total.
GAME WINNER
✓ CONFIRMEDHouston vs Chicago WS Winner?
5,000-TRIAL SIMULATION
II · EVERY MARKET WE RAN
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One card per hitter and pitcher, plus the game markets — the sim's own number on every line it priced, with the reasoning that produced it.
169 simulated lines · raw sim
1 / 21
Game Markets
HOU @ CWS · full-game reads
Moneyline
HOU to win
54%
1st 5 Innings
CWS F5
44%
Game Total
Over 8.5
65%
1st 5 Total
Over 4.5
63%
Run Line
CWS -1.5
33%
Team Total
HOU Over 4.5
59%
Team Total
CWS Over 4.5
50%
THE READ
HOU projects to outscore CWS by 0.69 runs across 5,000 trials.
- Projected runs: HOU 5.68, CWS 4.99
- Hunter Brown (HOU) vs Sean Burke (CWS)
- Run on confirmed lineups
Hunter Brown
HOU SP · vs. CWS
Strikeouts
5+ Ks
65%
Strikeouts
6+ Ks
46%
Strikeouts
7+ Ks
30%
Strikeouts
8+ Ks
18%
Strikeouts
9+ Ks
9%
Outs Recorded
15+ outs
59%
Outs Recorded
18+ outs
25%
Hits Allowed
5+ hits
52%
Hits Allowed
6+ hits
38%
THE READ
Middle-of-the-road strikeout projection at 5.5 Ks.
- Sim projects 5.5 strikeouts
- 65% to reach 5+ against CWS
Sean Burke
CWS SP · vs. HOU
Strikeouts
5+ Ks
59%
Strikeouts
6+ Ks
39%
Strikeouts
7+ Ks
22%
Strikeouts
8+ Ks
11%
Strikeouts
9+ Ks
5%
Outs Recorded
15+ outs
96%
Outs Recorded
18+ outs
51%
Hits Allowed
5+ hits
72%
Hits Allowed
6+ hits
59%
THE READ
Middle-of-the-road strikeout projection at 5.0 Ks.
- Sim projects 5.0 strikeouts
- 59% to reach 5+ against HOU
Yordan Alvarez
HOU · bats L · slot 2
Home Run
1+ HR
33%
Hits
1+ hits
83%
Hits
2+ hits
48%
Total Bases
2+ bases
66%
Total Bases
3+ bases
51%
Total Bases
4+ bases
41%
RBIs
1+ RBI
52%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
27%
THE READ
Stands out most on 1+ HR — 33% against 15% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 2 · bats L
- Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
- Facing Sean Burke
Munetaka Murakami
CWS · slot 2
Home Run
1+ HR
28%
Hits
1+ hits
69%
Hits
2+ hits
28%
Total Bases
2+ bases
50%
Total Bases
3+ bases
37%
Total Bases
4+ bases
31%
RBIs
1+ RBI
43%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
21%
THE READ
Stands out most on 1+ HR — 28% against 15% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 2
- Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
- Facing Hunter Brown
Jeremy Peña
HOU · slot 1
Home Run
1+ HR
18%
Hits
1+ hits
80%
Hits
2+ hits
44%
Total Bases
2+ bases
58%
Total Bases
3+ bases
40%
Total Bases
4+ bases
28%
RBIs
1+ RBI
39%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
16%
THE READ
Stands out most on 2+ hits — 44% against 29% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 1
- Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
- Facing Sean Burke
Colson Montgomery
CWS · bats L · slot 4
Home Run
1+ HR
22%
Hits
1+ hits
65%
Hits
2+ hits
25%
Total Bases
2+ bases
45%
Total Bases
3+ bases
31%
Total Bases
4+ bases
25%
RBIs
1+ RBI
40%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
20%
THE READ
Stands out most on 1+ HR — 22% against 15% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 4 · bats L
- Facing Hunter Brown
Miguel Vargas
CWS · bats R · slot 3
Home Run
1+ HR
19%
Hits
1+ hits
67%
Hits
2+ hits
29%
Total Bases
2+ bases
46%
Total Bases
3+ bases
31%
Total Bases
4+ bases
23%
RBIs
1+ RBI
39%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
18%
THE READ
Stands out most on 1+ HR — 19% against 15% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 3 · bats R
- Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
- Facing Hunter Brown
Christian Walker
HOU · bats R · slot 6
Home Run
1+ HR
18%
Hits
1+ hits
71%
Hits
2+ hits
30%
Total Bases
2+ bases
47%
Total Bases
3+ bases
31%
Total Bases
4+ bases
23%
RBIs
1+ RBI
39%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
17%
THE READ
Stands out most on 1+ HR — 18% against 15% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 6 · bats R
- Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
- Facing Sean Burke
LaMonte Wade Jr.
HOU · bats L · slot 5
Home Run
1+ HR
16%
Hits
1+ hits
72%
Hits
2+ hits
34%
Total Bases
2+ bases
50%
Total Bases
3+ bases
32%
Total Bases
4+ bases
23%
RBIs
1+ RBI
39%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
17%
THE READ
Stands out most on 2+ hits — 34% against 29% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 5 · bats L
- Facing Sean Burke
Isaac Paredes
HOU · bats R · slot 3
Home Run
1+ HR
13%
Hits
1+ hits
71%
Hits
2+ hits
32%
Total Bases
2+ bases
44%
Total Bases
3+ bases
27%
Total Bases
4+ bases
18%
RBIs
1+ RBI
36%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
14%
THE READ
Stands out most on 2+ hits — 32% against 29% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 3 · bats R
- Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
- Facing Sean Burke
Sam Antonacci
CWS · bats L · slot 1
Home Run
1+ HR
13%
Hits
1+ hits
72%
Hits
2+ hits
32%
Total Bases
2+ bases
47%
Total Bases
3+ bases
29%
Total Bases
4+ bases
19%
RBIs
1+ RBI
32%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
12%
THE READ
Stands out most on 2+ hits — 32% against 29% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 1 · bats L
- Facing Hunter Brown
Jose Altuve
HOU · bats R · slot 4
Home Run
1+ HR
14%
Hits
1+ hits
71%
Hits
2+ hits
32%
Total Bases
2+ bases
45%
Total Bases
3+ bases
28%
Total Bases
4+ bases
19%
RBIs
1+ RBI
37%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
16%
THE READ
Stands out most on 2+ hits — 32% against 29% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 4 · bats R
- Facing Sean Burke
Andrew Benintendi
CWS · bats L · slot 5
Home Run
1+ HR
16%
Hits
1+ hits
68%
Hits
2+ hits
26%
Total Bases
2+ bases
44%
Total Bases
3+ bases
28%
Total Bases
4+ bases
21%
RBIs
1+ RBI
37%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
16%
THE READ
Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 68%.
- Batting 5 · bats L
- Facing Hunter Brown
Yainer Diaz
HOU · bats R · slot 7
Home Run
1+ HR
13%
Hits
1+ hits
70%
Hits
2+ hits
30%
Total Bases
2+ bases
44%
Total Bases
3+ bases
26%
Total Bases
4+ bases
18%
RBIs
1+ RBI
33%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
14%
THE READ
Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 70%.
- Batting 7 · bats R
- Facing Sean Burke
Cam Smith
HOU · bats R · slot 9
Home Run
1+ HR
15%
Hits
1+ hits
67%
Hits
2+ hits
28%
Total Bases
2+ bases
44%
Total Bases
3+ bases
28%
Total Bases
4+ bases
20%
RBIs
1+ RBI
34%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
14%
THE READ
Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 67%.
- Batting 9 · bats R
- Facing Sean Burke
Lucas Spence
HOU · slot 8
Home Run
1+ HR
9%
Hits
1+ hits
67%
Hits
2+ hits
25%
Total Bases
2+ bases
37%
Total Bases
3+ bases
20%
Total Bases
4+ bases
13%
RBIs
1+ RBI
28%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
10%
THE READ
Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 67%.
- Batting 8
- Facing Sean Burke
Braden Montgomery
CWS · bats S · slot 6
Home Run
1+ HR
12%
Hits
1+ hits
66%
Hits
2+ hits
26%
Total Bases
2+ bases
42%
Total Bases
3+ bases
25%
Total Bases
4+ bases
17%
RBIs
1+ RBI
34%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
14%
THE READ
Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 66%.
- Batting 6 · bats S
- Facing Hunter Brown
Tristan Peters
CWS · bats L · slot 7
Home Run
1+ HR
8%
Hits
1+ hits
64%
Hits
2+ hits
24%
Total Bases
2+ bases
36%
Total Bases
3+ bases
19%
Total Bases
4+ bases
11%
RBIs
1+ RBI
28%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
10%
THE READ
Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 64% against 69%.
- Batting 7 · bats L
- Facing Hunter Brown
Chase Meidroth
CWS · bats R · slot 8
Home Run
1+ HR
7%
Hits
1+ hits
61%
Hits
2+ hits
21%
Total Bases
2+ bases
32%
Total Bases
3+ bases
16%
Total Bases
4+ bases
10%
RBIs
1+ RBI
25%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
8%
THE READ
Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 61% against 69%.
- Batting 8 · bats R
- Facing Hunter Brown
Edgar Quero
CWS · slot 9
Home Run
1+ HR
4%
Hits
1+ hits
53%
Hits
2+ hits
15%
Total Bases
2+ bases
24%
Total Bases
3+ bases
10%
Total Bases
4+ bases
6%
RBIs
1+ RBI
22%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
7%
THE READ
Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 53% against 69%.
- Batting 9
- Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
- Facing Hunter Brown
III · METHODOLOGY
How this read was built.
- Simulation. 5,000 Monte Carlo trials of this game using real play-by-play data, confirmed lineups, pitcher quality, bullpen depth, defensive runs saved, catcher framing, umpire K-zones, and per-batter rates regressed with empirical Bayes.
- What the number means. The share of those 5,000 trials in which the outcome happened — the model's own estimate, not a claim that a sportsbook has mispriced it. We publish it next to the reasoning that produced it and let the settlement record below speak for itself.
- Settlement. Every read on this page is graded by Kalshi's own settlement market once the game ends. The post-game version of this page shows what was confirmed and what was missed.
DISCLOSURE
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