AI MODEL READ
SETTLEDCOL vs MIL
Colorado Rockies at Milwaukee Brewers
Saturday, July 25, 2026
SIMULATION · ONE TRIAL, EVERY MARKET
Watch the model run this game.
One representative trial from the COL @ MIL simulation — real per-AB batter, outcome, and score progression from the spine. Every game-level market updates in lock-step with each play.
FIELD
PITCH SEQUENCE
COL Leadoff (R) vs HP
OUTCOME DISTRIBUTION
COL Leadoff in this spot
BATTER PROPS · COL LEADOFF
PITCHER PROPS · HP
GAME MARKETS · LIVE
updating per event
MONEYLINE
MIL to win
TOTAL
Over 8.5
RUN LINE
MIL -1.5
TEAM TOTAL MIL
Over 4.5
FIRST 5 INN
MIL wins F5
event 1 / 22 · pitching
Every card on the board is a live read. As the game changes, the math changes with it — every prop, every market line, in real time. Cards turn green when they hit, red when they miss.
I · GAME-LEVEL MODEL
Win probability + total.
GAME WINNER
✗ MISSEDColorado vs Milwaukee Winner?
5,000-TRIAL SIMULATION
II · EVERY MARKET WE RAN
Swipe the whole board.
One card per hitter and pitcher, plus the game markets — the sim's own number on every line it priced, with the reasoning that produced it.
169 simulated lines · raw sim
1 / 21
Game Markets
COL @ MIL · full-game reads
Moneyline
MIL to win
74%
1st 5 Innings
MIL F5
64%
Game Total
Over 8.5
70%
1st 5 Total
Over 4.5
72%
Run Line
MIL -1.5
62%
Team Total
COL Over 4.5
43%
Team Total
MIL Over 4.5
74%
THE READ
MIL projects to outscore COL by 2.83 runs across 5,000 trials.
- Projected runs: COL 4.39, MIL 7.22
- Ryan Feltner (COL) vs Robert Gasser (MIL)
- Run on confirmed lineups
Ryan Feltner
COL SP · vs. MIL
Strikeouts
5+ Ks
50%
Strikeouts
6+ Ks
31%
Strikeouts
7+ Ks
16%
Strikeouts
8+ Ks
7%
Strikeouts
9+ Ks
3%
Outs Recorded
15+ outs
78%
Outs Recorded
18+ outs
28%
Hits Allowed
5+ hits
77%
Hits Allowed
6+ hits
66%
THE READ
Middle-of-the-road strikeout projection at 4.6 Ks.
- Sim projects 4.6 strikeouts
- 50% to reach 5+ against MIL
Robert Gasser
MIL SP · vs. COL
Strikeouts
5+ Ks
51%
Strikeouts
6+ Ks
33%
Strikeouts
7+ Ks
20%
Strikeouts
8+ Ks
11%
Strikeouts
9+ Ks
5%
Outs Recorded
15+ outs
73%
Outs Recorded
18+ outs
46%
Hits Allowed
5+ hits
63%
Hits Allowed
6+ hits
50%
THE READ
Middle-of-the-road strikeout projection at 4.7 Ks.
- Sim projects 4.7 strikeouts
- 51% to reach 5+ against COL
Jake Bauers
MIL · bats L · slot 5
Home Run
1+ HR
32%
Hits
1+ hits
80%
Hits
2+ hits
42%
Total Bases
2+ bases
61%
Total Bases
3+ bases
47%
Total Bases
4+ bases
38%
RBIs
1+ RBI
55%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
30%
THE READ
Stands out most on 1+ HR — 32% against 17% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 5 · bats L
- Facing Ryan Feltner
Hunter Goodman
COL · bats R · slot 4
Home Run
1+ HR
31%
Hits
1+ hits
73%
Hits
2+ hits
33%
Total Bases
2+ bases
54%
Total Bases
3+ bases
41%
Total Bases
4+ bases
35%
RBIs
1+ RBI
47%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
25%
THE READ
Stands out most on 1+ HR — 31% against 17% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 4 · bats R
- Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
- Facing Robert Gasser
Brice Turang
MIL · bats L · slot 3
Home Run
1+ HR
26%
Hits
1+ hits
79%
Hits
2+ hits
43%
Total Bases
2+ bases
59%
Total Bases
3+ bases
43%
Total Bases
4+ bases
34%
RBIs
1+ RBI
49%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
25%
THE READ
Stands out most on 1+ HR — 26% against 17% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 3 · bats L
- Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
- Facing Ryan Feltner
Jackson Chourio
MIL · bats R · slot 2
Home Run
1+ HR
25%
Hits
1+ hits
81%
Hits
2+ hits
45%
Total Bases
2+ bases
60%
Total Bases
3+ bases
43%
Total Bases
4+ bases
33%
RBIs
1+ RBI
47%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
24%
THE READ
Stands out most on 1+ HR — 25% against 17% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 2 · bats R
- Facing Ryan Feltner
Garrett Mitchell
MIL · bats L · slot 6
Home Run
1+ HR
20%
Hits
1+ hits
77%
Hits
2+ hits
39%
Total Bases
2+ bases
55%
Total Bases
3+ bases
38%
Total Bases
4+ bases
28%
RBIs
1+ RBI
46%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
22%
THE READ
Stands out most on 2+ RBIs — 22% against 17% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 6 · bats L
- Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
- Facing Ryan Feltner
William Contreras
MIL · bats R · slot 4
Home Run
1+ HR
16%
Hits
1+ hits
77%
Hits
2+ hits
37%
Total Bases
2+ bases
51%
Total Bases
3+ bases
33%
Total Bases
4+ bases
23%
RBIs
1+ RBI
44%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
21%
THE READ
Stands out most on 2+ RBIs — 21% against 17% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 4 · bats R
- Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
- Facing Ryan Feltner
Christian Yelich
MIL · bats L · slot 1
Home Run
1+ HR
19%
Hits
1+ hits
79%
Hits
2+ hits
40%
Total Bases
2+ bases
55%
Total Bases
3+ bases
37%
Total Bases
4+ bases
27%
RBIs
1+ RBI
41%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
18%
THE READ
Stands out most on 2+ hits — 40% against 33% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 1 · bats L
- Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
- Facing Ryan Feltner
Luis Lara
MIL · slot 7
Home Run
1+ HR
17%
Hits
1+ hits
72%
Hits
2+ hits
32%
Total Bases
2+ bases
48%
Total Bases
3+ bases
32%
Total Bases
4+ bases
23%
RBIs
1+ RBI
42%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
19%
THE READ
Stands out most on 2+ RBIs — 19% against 17% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 7
- Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
- Facing Ryan Feltner
Cooper Pratt
MIL · bats R · slot 8
Home Run
1+ HR
15%
Hits
1+ hits
74%
Hits
2+ hits
34%
Total Bases
2+ bases
51%
Total Bases
3+ bases
32%
Total Bases
4+ bases
22%
RBIs
1+ RBI
42%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
19%
THE READ
Stands out most on 1+ RBI — 42% against 37% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 8 · bats R
- Facing Ryan Feltner
Jake McCarthy
COL · bats L · slot 1
Home Run
1+ HR
13%
Hits
1+ hits
73%
Hits
2+ hits
35%
Total Bases
2+ bases
48%
Total Bases
3+ bases
28%
Total Bases
4+ bases
19%
RBIs
1+ RBI
29%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
10%
THE READ
Stands out most on 2+ hits — 35% against 33% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 1 · bats L
- Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
- Facing Robert Gasser
Cole Carrigg
COL · bats S · slot 3
Home Run
1+ HR
17%
Hits
1+ hits
72%
Hits
2+ hits
34%
Total Bases
2+ bases
50%
Total Bases
3+ bases
32%
Total Bases
4+ bases
24%
RBIs
1+ RBI
36%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
16%
THE READ
Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 72%.
- Batting 3 · bats S
- Facing Robert Gasser
TJ Rumfield
COL · bats L · slot 5
Home Run
1+ HR
14%
Hits
1+ hits
71%
Hits
2+ hits
30%
Total Bases
2+ bases
45%
Total Bases
3+ bases
28%
Total Bases
4+ bases
20%
RBIs
1+ RBI
33%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
13%
THE READ
Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 71%.
- Batting 5 · bats L
- Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
- Facing Robert Gasser
Kyle Karros
COL · bats R · slot 2
Home Run
1+ HR
13%
Hits
1+ hits
71%
Hits
2+ hits
30%
Total Bases
2+ bases
45%
Total Bases
3+ bases
27%
Total Bases
4+ bases
18%
RBIs
1+ RBI
29%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
10%
THE READ
Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 71%.
- Batting 2 · bats R
- Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
- Facing Robert Gasser
David Hamilton
MIL · bats L · slot 9
Home Run
1+ HR
9%
Hits
1+ hits
67%
Hits
2+ hits
27%
Total Bases
2+ bases
38%
Total Bases
3+ bases
21%
Total Bases
4+ bases
13%
RBIs
1+ RBI
34%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
14%
THE READ
Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 67% against 71%.
- Batting 9 · bats L
- Facing Ryan Feltner
Willi Castro
COL · bats S · slot 6
Home Run
1+ HR
10%
Hits
1+ hits
64%
Hits
2+ hits
24%
Total Bases
2+ bases
36%
Total Bases
3+ bases
21%
Total Bases
4+ bases
14%
RBIs
1+ RBI
27%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
10%
THE READ
Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 64% against 71%.
- Batting 6 · bats S
- Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
- Facing Robert Gasser
Braxton Fulford
COL · bats R · slot 7
Home Run
1+ HR
9%
Hits
1+ hits
61%
Hits
2+ hits
22%
Total Bases
2+ bases
34%
Total Bases
3+ bases
19%
Total Bases
4+ bases
12%
RBIs
1+ RBI
26%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
9%
THE READ
Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 61% against 71%.
- Batting 7 · bats R
- Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
- Facing Robert Gasser
Tyler Freeman
COL · bats R · slot 8
Home Run
1+ HR
7%
Hits
1+ hits
61%
Hits
2+ hits
21%
Total Bases
2+ bases
32%
Total Bases
3+ bases
17%
Total Bases
4+ bases
10%
RBIs
1+ RBI
23%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
8%
THE READ
Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 61% against 71%.
- Batting 8 · bats R
- Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
- Facing Robert Gasser
Ezequiel Tovar
COL · bats R · slot 9
Home Run
1+ HR
8%
Hits
1+ hits
56%
Hits
2+ hits
17%
Total Bases
2+ bases
29%
Total Bases
3+ bases
16%
Total Bases
4+ bases
11%
RBIs
1+ RBI
23%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
7%
THE READ
Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 56% against 71%.
- Batting 9 · bats R
- Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
- Facing Robert Gasser
III · METHODOLOGY
How this read was built.
- Simulation. 5,000 Monte Carlo trials of this game using real play-by-play data, confirmed lineups, pitcher quality, bullpen depth, defensive runs saved, catcher framing, umpire K-zones, and per-batter rates regressed with empirical Bayes.
- What the number means. The share of those 5,000 trials in which the outcome happened — the model's own estimate, not a claim that a sportsbook has mispriced it. We publish it next to the reasoning that produced it and let the settlement record below speak for itself.
- Settlement. Every read on this page is graded by Kalshi's own settlement market once the game ends. The post-game version of this page shows what was confirmed and what was missed.
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