AI MODEL READ
SETTLEDCLE vs TB
Cleveland Guardians at Tampa Bay Rays
Saturday, July 25, 2026
SIMULATION · ONE TRIAL, EVERY MARKET
Watch the model run this game.
One representative trial from the CLE @ TB simulation — real per-AB batter, outcome, and score progression from the spine. Every game-level market updates in lock-step with each play.
FIELD
PITCH SEQUENCE
CLE Leadoff (R) vs HP
OUTCOME DISTRIBUTION
CLE Leadoff in this spot
BATTER PROPS · CLE LEADOFF
PITCHER PROPS · HP
GAME MARKETS · LIVE
updating per event
MONEYLINE
TB to win
TOTAL
Over 8.5
RUN LINE
TB -1.5
TEAM TOTAL TB
Over 4.5
FIRST 5 INN
TB wins F5
event 1 / 23 · pitching
Every card on the board is a live read. As the game changes, the math changes with it — every prop, every market line, in real time. Cards turn green when they hit, red when they miss.
I · GAME-LEVEL MODEL
Win probability + total.
GAME WINNER
✗ MISSEDCleveland vs Tampa Bay Winner?
5,000-TRIAL SIMULATION
II · EVERY MARKET WE RAN
Swipe the whole board.
One card per hitter and pitcher, plus the game markets — the sim's own number on every line it priced, with the reasoning that produced it.
169 simulated lines · raw sim
1 / 21
Game Markets
CLE @ TB · full-game reads
Moneyline
TB to win
57%
1st 5 Innings
TB F5
48%
Game Total
Over 8.5
52%
1st 5 Total
Over 4.5
58%
Run Line
TB -1.5
42%
Team Total
CLE Over 4.5
41%
Team Total
TB Over 4.5
48%
THE READ
TB projects to outscore CLE by 0.49 runs across 5,000 trials.
- Projected runs: CLE 4.30, TB 4.79
- Tanner Bibee (CLE) vs Nick Martinez (TB)
- Run on confirmed lineups
Tanner Bibee
CLE SP · vs. TB
Strikeouts
5+ Ks
38%
Strikeouts
6+ Ks
22%
Strikeouts
7+ Ks
11%
Strikeouts
8+ Ks
5%
Strikeouts
9+ Ks
2%
Outs Recorded
15+ outs
86%
Outs Recorded
18+ outs
53%
Hits Allowed
5+ hits
71%
Hits Allowed
6+ hits
58%
THE READ
Middle-of-the-road strikeout projection at 4.1 Ks.
- Sim projects 4.1 strikeouts
- 38% to reach 5+ against TB
Nick Martinez
TB SP · vs. CLE
Strikeouts
5+ Ks
9%
Strikeouts
6+ Ks
3%
Strikeouts
7+ Ks
1%
Strikeouts
8+ Ks
0%
Strikeouts
9+ Ks
0%
Outs Recorded
15+ outs
97%
Outs Recorded
18+ outs
47%
Hits Allowed
5+ hits
69%
Hits Allowed
6+ hits
55%
THE READ
Low-strikeout projection at 2.5 Ks — the ladder thins out fast above the first rung.
- Sim projects 2.5 strikeouts
- 9% to reach 5+ against CLE
Junior Caminero
TB · bats R · slot 3
Home Run
1+ HR
31%
Hits
1+ hits
76%
Hits
2+ hits
38%
Total Bases
2+ bases
57%
Total Bases
3+ bases
43%
Total Bases
4+ bases
36%
RBIs
1+ RBI
48%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
24%
THE READ
Stands out most on 1+ HR — 31% against 14% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 3 · bats R
- Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
- Facing Tanner Bibee
Victor Mesa Jr.
TB · bats L · slot 6
Home Run
1+ HR
23%
Hits
1+ hits
69%
Hits
2+ hits
29%
Total Bases
2+ bases
48%
Total Bases
3+ bases
33%
Total Bases
4+ bases
26%
RBIs
1+ RBI
38%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
17%
THE READ
Stands out most on 1+ HR — 23% against 14% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 6 · bats L
- Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
- Facing Tanner Bibee
Jonathan Aranda
TB · bats L · slot 2
Home Run
1+ HR
22%
Hits
1+ hits
76%
Hits
2+ hits
38%
Total Bases
2+ bases
55%
Total Bases
3+ bases
39%
Total Bases
4+ bases
29%
RBIs
1+ RBI
40%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
18%
THE READ
Stands out most on 1+ HR — 22% against 14% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 2 · bats L
- Facing Tanner Bibee
Gabriel Arias
CLE · bats R · slot 7
Home Run
1+ HR
19%
Hits
1+ hits
72%
Hits
2+ hits
31%
Total Bases
2+ bases
48%
Total Bases
3+ bases
31%
Total Bases
4+ bases
24%
RBIs
1+ RBI
36%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
16%
THE READ
Stands out most on 1+ HR — 19% against 14% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 7 · bats R
- Facing Nick Martinez
Yandy Díaz
TB · bats R · slot 1
Home Run
1+ HR
17%
Hits
1+ hits
75%
Hits
2+ hits
36%
Total Bases
2+ bases
52%
Total Bases
3+ bases
34%
Total Bases
4+ bases
24%
RBIs
1+ RBI
35%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
14%
THE READ
Stands out most on 4+ bases — 24% against 18% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 1 · bats R
- Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
- Facing Tanner Bibee
Angel Martínez
CLE · slot 5
Home Run
1+ HR
15%
Hits
1+ hits
67%
Hits
2+ hits
27%
Total Bases
2+ bases
42%
Total Bases
3+ bases
27%
Total Bases
4+ bases
19%
RBIs
1+ RBI
34%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
14%
THE READ
Stands out most on 1+ HR — 15% against 14% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 5
- Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
- Facing Nick Martinez
José Ramírez
CLE · slot 2
Home Run
1+ HR
15%
Hits
1+ hits
69%
Hits
2+ hits
30%
Total Bases
2+ bases
45%
Total Bases
3+ bases
28%
Total Bases
4+ bases
20%
RBIs
1+ RBI
32%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
13%
THE READ
Stands out most on 4+ bases — 20% against 18% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 2
- Facing Nick Martinez
Kyle Manzardo
CLE · bats L · slot 6
Home Run
1+ HR
15%
Hits
1+ hits
68%
Hits
2+ hits
27%
Total Bases
2+ bases
42%
Total Bases
3+ bases
26%
Total Bases
4+ bases
19%
RBIs
1+ RBI
32%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
12%
THE READ
Stands out most on 1+ HR — 15% against 14% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 6 · bats L
- Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
- Facing Nick Martinez
Travis Bazzana
CLE · bats L · slot 3
Home Run
1+ HR
14%
Hits
1+ hits
70%
Hits
2+ hits
29%
Total Bases
2+ bases
44%
Total Bases
3+ bases
27%
Total Bases
4+ bases
19%
RBIs
1+ RBI
33%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
14%
THE READ
Stands out most on 2+ RBIs — 14% against 12% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 3 · bats L
- Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
- Facing Nick Martinez
Brayan Rocchio
CLE · bats S · slot 4
Home Run
1+ HR
11%
Hits
1+ hits
69%
Hits
2+ hits
30%
Total Bases
2+ bases
43%
Total Bases
3+ bases
24%
Total Bases
4+ bases
15%
RBIs
1+ RBI
32%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
13%
THE READ
Stands out most on 2+ hits — 30% against 28% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 4 · bats S
- Facing Nick Martinez
Steven Kwan
CLE · bats L · slot 1
Home Run
1+ HR
5%
Hits
1+ hits
69%
Hits
2+ hits
29%
Total Bases
2+ bases
39%
Total Bases
3+ bases
20%
Total Bases
4+ bases
11%
RBIs
1+ RBI
21%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
6%
THE READ
Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 69%.
- Batting 1 · bats L
- Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
- Facing Nick Martinez
Chandler Simpson
TB · bats L · slot 5
Home Run
1+ HR
5%
Hits
1+ hits
69%
Hits
2+ hits
28%
Total Bases
2+ bases
40%
Total Bases
3+ bases
20%
Total Bases
4+ bases
11%
RBIs
1+ RBI
27%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
8%
THE READ
Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 69%.
- Batting 5 · bats L
- Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
- Facing Tanner Bibee
Cedric Mullins
TB · bats L · slot 4
Home Run
1+ HR
12%
Hits
1+ hits
61%
Hits
2+ hits
20%
Total Bases
2+ bases
34%
Total Bases
3+ bases
20%
Total Bases
4+ bases
14%
RBIs
1+ RBI
30%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
11%
THE READ
Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ RBI at 30% against 32%.
- Batting 4 · bats L
- Facing Tanner Bibee
Patrick Bailey
CLE · bats S · slot 8
Home Run
1+ HR
9%
Hits
1+ hits
63%
Hits
2+ hits
22%
Total Bases
2+ bases
35%
Total Bases
3+ bases
18%
Total Bases
4+ bases
12%
RBIs
1+ RBI
26%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
8%
THE READ
Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 63% against 68%.
- Batting 8 · bats S
- Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
- Facing Nick Martinez
Hunter Feduccia
TB · bats L · slot 9
Home Run
1+ HR
9%
Hits
1+ hits
63%
Hits
2+ hits
22%
Total Bases
2+ bases
37%
Total Bases
3+ bases
20%
Total Bases
4+ bases
13%
RBIs
1+ RBI
27%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
10%
THE READ
Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 63% against 68%.
- Batting 9 · bats L
- Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
- Facing Tanner Bibee
Petey Halpin
CLE · slot 9
Home Run
1+ HR
10%
Hits
1+ hits
62%
Hits
2+ hits
20%
Total Bases
2+ bases
34%
Total Bases
3+ bases
18%
Total Bases
4+ bases
12%
RBIs
1+ RBI
26%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
9%
THE READ
Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 62% against 68%.
- Batting 9
- Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
- Facing Nick Martinez
Richie Palacios
TB · bats L · slot 7
Home Run
1+ HR
8%
Hits
1+ hits
62%
Hits
2+ hits
21%
Total Bases
2+ bases
34%
Total Bases
3+ bases
18%
Total Bases
4+ bases
12%
RBIs
1+ RBI
26%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
9%
THE READ
Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 62% against 68%.
- Batting 7 · bats L
- Facing Tanner Bibee
Ben Williamson
TB · bats R · slot 8
Home Run
1+ HR
6%
Hits
1+ hits
59%
Hits
2+ hits
20%
Total Bases
2+ bases
31%
Total Bases
3+ bases
14%
Total Bases
4+ bases
8%
RBIs
1+ RBI
24%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
7%
THE READ
Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 59% against 68%.
- Batting 8 · bats R
- Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
- Facing Tanner Bibee
III · METHODOLOGY
How this read was built.
- Simulation. 5,000 Monte Carlo trials of this game using real play-by-play data, confirmed lineups, pitcher quality, bullpen depth, defensive runs saved, catcher framing, umpire K-zones, and per-batter rates regressed with empirical Bayes.
- What the number means. The share of those 5,000 trials in which the outcome happened — the model's own estimate, not a claim that a sportsbook has mispriced it. We publish it next to the reasoning that produced it and let the settlement record below speak for itself.
- Settlement. Every read on this page is graded by Kalshi's own settlement market once the game ends. The post-game version of this page shows what was confirmed and what was missed.
DISCLOSURE
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