AI MODEL READ
SETTLEDCIN vs STL
Cincinnati Reds at St. Louis Cardinals
Saturday, July 25, 2026
SIMULATION · ONE TRIAL, EVERY MARKET
Watch the model run this game.
One representative trial from the CIN @ STL simulation — real per-AB batter, outcome, and score progression from the spine. Every game-level market updates in lock-step with each play.
FIELD
PITCH SEQUENCE
CIN Leadoff (R) vs HP
OUTCOME DISTRIBUTION
CIN Leadoff in this spot
BATTER PROPS · CIN LEADOFF
PITCHER PROPS · HP
GAME MARKETS · LIVE
updating per event
MONEYLINE
STL to win
TOTAL
Over 8.5
RUN LINE
STL -1.5
TEAM TOTAL STL
Over 4.5
FIRST 5 INN
STL wins F5
event 1 / 16 · pitching
Every card on the board is a live read. As the game changes, the math changes with it — every prop, every market line, in real time. Cards turn green when they hit, red when they miss.
I · GAME-LEVEL MODEL
Win probability + total.
GAME WINNER
✗ MISSEDCincinnati vs St. Louis Winner?
5,000-TRIAL SIMULATION
II · EVERY MARKET WE RAN
Swipe the whole board.
One card per hitter and pitcher, plus the game markets — the sim's own number on every line it priced, with the reasoning that produced it.
169 simulated lines · raw sim
1 / 21
Game Markets
CIN @ STL · full-game reads
Moneyline
CIN to win
54%
1st 5 Innings
STL F5
37%
Game Total
Over 8.5
58%
1st 5 Total
Over 4.5
57%
Run Line
STL -1.5
33%
Team Total
CIN Over 4.5
54%
Team Total
STL Over 4.5
46%
THE READ
CIN projects to outscore STL by 0.68 runs across 5,000 trials.
- Projected runs: CIN 5.26, STL 4.58
- Hunter Greene (CIN) vs Andre Pallante (STL)
- Run on confirmed lineups
Hunter Greene
CIN SP · vs. STL
Strikeouts
5+ Ks
72%
Strikeouts
6+ Ks
57%
Strikeouts
7+ Ks
42%
Strikeouts
8+ Ks
27%
Strikeouts
9+ Ks
17%
Outs Recorded
15+ outs
69%
Outs Recorded
18+ outs
45%
Hits Allowed
5+ hits
57%
Hits Allowed
6+ hits
45%
THE READ
Strikeout-heavy projection — the sim has him at 6.1 Ks, with the ladder still live into the 8+ rung.
- Sim projects 6.1 strikeouts
- 72% to reach 5+ against STL
Andre Pallante
STL SP · vs. CIN
Strikeouts
5+ Ks
29%
Strikeouts
6+ Ks
14%
Strikeouts
7+ Ks
6%
Strikeouts
8+ Ks
2%
Strikeouts
9+ Ks
1%
Outs Recorded
15+ outs
98%
Outs Recorded
18+ outs
63%
Hits Allowed
5+ hits
76%
Hits Allowed
6+ hits
64%
THE READ
Low-strikeout projection at 3.6 Ks — the ladder thins out fast above the first rung.
- Sim projects 3.6 strikeouts
- 29% to reach 5+ against CIN
Jordan Walker
STL · bats R · slot 2
Home Run
1+ HR
24%
Hits
1+ hits
74%
Hits
2+ hits
35%
Total Bases
2+ bases
54%
Total Bases
3+ bases
38%
Total Bases
4+ bases
29%
RBIs
1+ RBI
39%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
17%
THE READ
Stands out most on 1+ HR — 24% against 15% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 2 · bats R
- Facing Hunter Greene
JJ Bleday
CIN · bats L · slot 3
Home Run
1+ HR
23%
Hits
1+ hits
76%
Hits
2+ hits
37%
Total Bases
2+ bases
54%
Total Bases
3+ bases
37%
Total Bases
4+ bases
29%
RBIs
1+ RBI
43%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
21%
THE READ
Stands out most on 1+ HR — 23% against 15% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 3 · bats L
- Cold on results, but hitting the ball well
- Facing Andre Pallante
Elly De La Cruz
CIN · bats S · slot 1
Home Run
1+ HR
21%
Hits
1+ hits
80%
Hits
2+ hits
44%
Total Bases
2+ bases
59%
Total Bases
3+ bases
41%
Total Bases
4+ bases
30%
RBIs
1+ RBI
39%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
17%
THE READ
Stands out most on 4+ bases — 30% against 20% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 1 · bats S
- Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
- Facing Andre Pallante
Sal Stewart
CIN · bats R · slot 2
Home Run
1+ HR
22%
Hits
1+ hits
77%
Hits
2+ hits
39%
Total Bases
2+ bases
56%
Total Bases
3+ bases
39%
Total Bases
4+ bases
30%
RBIs
1+ RBI
43%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
19%
THE READ
Stands out most on 4+ bases — 30% against 20% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 2 · bats R
- Facing Andre Pallante
Alec Burleson
STL · bats L · slot 3
Home Run
1+ HR
22%
Hits
1+ hits
76%
Hits
2+ hits
37%
Total Bases
2+ bases
54%
Total Bases
3+ bases
37%
Total Bases
4+ bases
29%
RBIs
1+ RBI
40%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
19%
THE READ
Stands out most on 1+ HR — 22% against 15% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 3 · bats L
- Cold on results, but hitting the ball well
- Facing Hunter Greene
Tyler Stephenson
CIN · bats R · slot 5
Home Run
1+ HR
17%
Hits
1+ hits
76%
Hits
2+ hits
38%
Total Bases
2+ bases
54%
Total Bases
3+ bases
35%
Total Bases
4+ bases
25%
RBIs
1+ RBI
41%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
19%
THE READ
Stands out most on 2+ RBIs — 19% against 14% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 5 · bats R
- Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
- Facing Andre Pallante
Eugenio Suárez
CIN · bats R · slot 4
Home Run
1+ HR
18%
Hits
1+ hits
72%
Hits
2+ hits
33%
Total Bases
2+ bases
49%
Total Bases
3+ bases
32%
Total Bases
4+ bases
24%
RBIs
1+ RBI
40%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
18%
THE READ
Stands out most on 2+ RBIs — 18% against 14% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 4 · bats R
- Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
- Facing Andre Pallante
JJ Wetherholt
STL · bats L · slot 1
Home Run
1+ HR
20%
Hits
1+ hits
72%
Hits
2+ hits
32%
Total Bases
2+ bases
49%
Total Bases
3+ bases
33%
Total Bases
4+ bases
25%
RBIs
1+ RBI
34%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
13%
THE READ
Stands out most on 1+ HR — 20% against 15% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 1 · bats L
- Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
- Facing Hunter Greene
Lars Nootbaar
STL · bats L · slot 5
Home Run
1+ HR
14%
Hits
1+ hits
70%
Hits
2+ hits
29%
Total Bases
2+ bases
46%
Total Bases
3+ bases
28%
Total Bases
4+ bases
19%
RBIs
1+ RBI
36%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
14%
THE READ
Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 70%.
- Batting 5 · bats L
- Facing Hunter Greene
Bryan Torres
STL · bats L · slot 7
Home Run
1+ HR
15%
Hits
1+ hits
64%
Hits
2+ hits
23%
Total Bases
2+ bases
38%
Total Bases
3+ bases
23%
Total Bases
4+ bases
17%
RBIs
1+ RBI
31%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
13%
THE READ
Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 64%.
- Batting 7 · bats L
- Facing Hunter Greene
Iván Herrera
STL · bats R · slot 4
Home Run
1+ HR
13%
Hits
1+ hits
67%
Hits
2+ hits
26%
Total Bases
2+ bases
42%
Total Bases
3+ bases
25%
Total Bases
4+ bases
17%
RBIs
1+ RBI
34%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
13%
THE READ
Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 67%.
- Batting 4 · bats R
- Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
- Facing Hunter Greene
Noelvi Marte
CIN · bats R · slot 6
Home Run
1+ HR
12%
Hits
1+ hits
68%
Hits
2+ hits
28%
Total Bases
2+ bases
41%
Total Bases
3+ bases
24%
Total Bases
4+ bases
16%
RBIs
1+ RBI
34%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
14%
THE READ
Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 68%.
- Batting 6 · bats R
- Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
- Facing Andre Pallante
Edwin Arroyo
CIN · bats S · slot 8
Home Run
1+ HR
6%
Hits
1+ hits
66%
Hits
2+ hits
26%
Total Bases
2+ bases
36%
Total Bases
3+ bases
18%
Total Bases
4+ bases
10%
RBIs
1+ RBI
27%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
8%
THE READ
Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 66%.
- Batting 8 · bats S
- Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
- Facing Andre Pallante
Blaze Jordan
STL · bats R · slot 8
Home Run
1+ HR
8%
Hits
1+ hits
61%
Hits
2+ hits
20%
Total Bases
2+ bases
33%
Total Bases
3+ bases
17%
Total Bases
4+ bases
10%
RBIs
1+ RBI
25%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
8%
THE READ
Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 61% against 69%.
- Batting 8 · bats R
- Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
- Facing Hunter Greene
Masyn Winn
STL · bats R · slot 6
Home Run
1+ HR
6%
Hits
1+ hits
60%
Hits
2+ hits
20%
Total Bases
2+ bases
31%
Total Bases
3+ bases
16%
Total Bases
4+ bases
9%
RBIs
1+ RBI
25%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
8%
THE READ
Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 60% against 69%.
- Batting 6 · bats R
- Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
- Facing Hunter Greene
TJ Friedl
CIN · bats L · slot 7
Home Run
1+ HR
6%
Hits
1+ hits
60%
Hits
2+ hits
22%
Total Bases
2+ bases
32%
Total Bases
3+ bases
16%
Total Bases
4+ bases
9%
RBIs
1+ RBI
25%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
8%
THE READ
Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 60% against 69%.
- Batting 7 · bats L
- Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
- Facing Andre Pallante
Ke'Bryan Hayes
CIN · slot 9
Home Run
1+ HR
6%
Hits
1+ hits
60%
Hits
2+ hits
20%
Total Bases
2+ bases
30%
Total Bases
3+ bases
15%
Total Bases
4+ bases
9%
RBIs
1+ RBI
25%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
8%
THE READ
Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 60% against 69%.
- Batting 9
- Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
- Facing Andre Pallante
Nathan Church
STL · bats L · slot 9
Home Run
1+ HR
10%
Hits
1+ hits
59%
Hits
2+ hits
19%
Total Bases
2+ bases
32%
Total Bases
3+ bases
18%
Total Bases
4+ bases
12%
RBIs
1+ RBI
25%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
8%
THE READ
Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 59% against 69%.
- Batting 9 · bats L
- Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
- Facing Hunter Greene
III · METHODOLOGY
How this read was built.
- Simulation. 5,000 Monte Carlo trials of this game using real play-by-play data, confirmed lineups, pitcher quality, bullpen depth, defensive runs saved, catcher framing, umpire K-zones, and per-batter rates regressed with empirical Bayes.
- What the number means. The share of those 5,000 trials in which the outcome happened — the model's own estimate, not a claim that a sportsbook has mispriced it. We publish it next to the reasoning that produced it and let the settlement record below speak for itself.
- Settlement. Every read on this page is graded by Kalshi's own settlement market once the game ends. The post-game version of this page shows what was confirmed and what was missed.
DISCLOSURE
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