AI MODEL READ

SETTLED

CHC vs PIT

Chicago Cubs at Pittsburgh Pirates

Saturday, July 25, 2026

SIMULATION · ONE TRIAL, EVERY MARKET

Watch the model run this game.

One representative trial from the CHC @ PIT simulation — real per-AB batter, outcome, and score progression from the spine. Every game-level market updates in lock-step with each play.

CHICAGOCHC

0·0

PITTSBURGHPIT

TOP 10-10 OUT

FIELD

PITCH SEQUENCE

CHC Leadoff (R) vs HP

FB93.2

CV79.5

OUTCOME DISTRIBUTION

CHC Leadoff in this spot

HIT

24%

OUT

55%

BATTER PROPS · CHC LEADOFF

HR YES (O0.5)

12%

HITS O0.5

40%

TOTAL BASES O1.5

24%

PITCHER PROPS · HP

KS O5.5

55%

GAME MARKETS · LIVE

updating per event

MONEYLINE

PIT to win

36%

TOTAL

Over 8.5

58%

RUN LINE

PIT -1.5

45%

TEAM TOTAL PIT

Over 4.5

52%

FIRST 5 INN

PIT wins F5

51%

LAST PLAYCHC Leadoff at the plate · pitch 1 of 2

event 1 / 20 · pitching

Every card on the board is a live read. As the game changes, the math changes with it — every prop, every market line, in real time. Cards turn green when they hit, red when they miss.

I · GAME-LEVEL MODEL

Win probability + total.

GAME WINNER

✗ MISSED

Chicago C vs Pittsburgh Winner?

64%

5,000-TRIAL SIMULATION

II · EVERY MARKET WE RAN

Swipe the whole board.

One card per hitter and pitcher, plus the game markets — the sim's own number on every line it priced, with the reasoning that produced it.

97 simulated lines · raw sim

1 / 12

CHC PIT

Game Markets

CHC @ PIT · full-game reads

7 MARKETS

Moneyline

PIT to win

53%

1st 5 Innings

PIT F5

48%

Game Total

Over 8.5

52%

1st 5 Total

Over 4.5

46%

Run Line

PIT -1.5

38%

Team Total

CHC Over 4.5

45%

Team Total

PIT Over 4.5

46%

THE READ

The sim splits this one — 9.11 total runs with under a quarter-run between the sides.

Projected runs: CHC 4.54, PIT 4.58
Shota Imanaga (CHC) vs Paul Skenes (PIT)
Run on league-average lineups — refreshes when lineups post

Shota Imanaga

CHC SP · vs. PIT

Strikeouts

5+ Ks

75%

Strikeouts

6+ Ks

59%

Strikeouts

7+ Ks

41%

Strikeouts

8+ Ks

26%

Strikeouts

9+ Ks

14%

Outs Recorded

15+ outs

97%

Outs Recorded

18+ outs

74%

Hits Allowed

5+ hits

72%

Hits Allowed

6+ hits

59%

THE READ

Strikeout-heavy projection — the sim has him at 6.1 Ks, with the ladder still live into the 8+ rung.

Sim projects 6.1 strikeouts
75% to reach 5+ against PIT

Paul Skenes

PIT SP · vs. CHC

Strikeouts

5+ Ks

82%

Strikeouts

6+ Ks

68%

Strikeouts

7+ Ks

50%

Strikeouts

8+ Ks

34%

Strikeouts

9+ Ks

21%

Outs Recorded

15+ outs

82%

Outs Recorded

18+ outs

47%

Hits Allowed

5+ hits

55%

Hits Allowed

6+ hits

41%

THE READ

Strikeout-heavy projection — the sim has him at 6.6 Ks, with the ladder still live into the 8+ rung.

Sim projects 6.6 strikeouts
82% to reach 5+ against CHC

Pete Crow-Armstrong

CHC · bats L · slot 1

Home Run

1+ HR

22%

Hits

1+ hits

75%

Hits

2+ hits

36%

Total Bases

2+ bases

53%

Total Bases

3+ bases

37%

Total Bases

4+ bases

29%

RBIs

1+ RBI

38%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

17%

THE READ

Stands out most on 1+ HR — 22% against 12% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

Batting 1 · bats L
Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
Facing Paul Skenes

Seiya Suzuki

CHC · bats R · slot 2

Home Run

1+ HR

19%

Hits

1+ hits

72%

Hits

2+ hits

34%

Total Bases

2+ bases

50%

Total Bases

3+ bases

34%

Total Bases

4+ bases

25%

RBIs

1+ RBI

36%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

16%

THE READ

Stands out most on 1+ HR — 19% against 12% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

Batting 2 · bats R
Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
Facing Paul Skenes

Ian Happ

CHC · bats S · slot 5

Home Run

1+ HR

16%

Hits

1+ hits

66%

Hits

2+ hits

25%

Total Bases

2+ bases

42%

Total Bases

3+ bases

27%

Total Bases

4+ bases

20%

RBIs

1+ RBI

35%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

15%

THE READ

Stands out most on 1+ HR — 16% against 12% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

Batting 5 · bats S
Facing Paul Skenes

Dansby Swanson

CHC · bats R · slot 8

Home Run

1+ HR

15%

Hits

1+ hits

63%

Hits

2+ hits

23%

Total Bases

2+ bases

40%

Total Bases

3+ bases

24%

Total Bases

4+ bases

18%

RBIs

1+ RBI

32%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

13%

THE READ

Stands out most on 1+ HR — 15% against 12% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

Batting 8 · bats R
Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
Facing Paul Skenes

Michael Busch

CHC · bats L · slot 3

Home Run

1+ HR

14%

Hits

1+ hits

68%

Hits

2+ hits

28%

Total Bases

2+ bases

44%

Total Bases

3+ bases

27%

Total Bases

4+ bases

19%

RBIs

1+ RBI

34%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

13%

THE READ

Stands out most on 4+ bases — 19% against 17% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

Batting 3 · bats L
Facing Paul Skenes

Pedro Ramírez

CHC · bats S · slot 7

Home Run

1+ HR

Hits

1+ hits

68%

Hits

2+ hits

28%

Total Bases

2+ bases

41%

Total Bases

3+ bases

23%

Total Bases

4+ bases

14%

RBIs

1+ RBI

29%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

10%

THE READ

Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 68%.

Batting 7 · bats S
Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
Facing Paul Skenes

Alex Bregman

CHC · bats R · slot 4

Home Run

1+ HR

Hits

1+ hits

66%

Hits

2+ hits

26%

Total Bases

2+ bases

39%

Total Bases

3+ bases

22%

Total Bases

4+ bases

13%

RBIs

1+ RBI

31%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

11%

THE READ

Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 66%.

Batting 4 · bats R
Facing Paul Skenes

Nico Hoerner

CHC · bats R · slot 6

Home Run

1+ HR

Hits

1+ hits

63%

Hits

2+ hits

23%

Total Bases

2+ bases

33%

Total Bases

3+ bases

17%

Total Bases

4+ bases

RBIs

1+ RBI

25%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

THE READ

Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 63% against 67%.

Batting 6 · bats R
Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
Facing Paul Skenes

Miguel Amaya

CHC · bats R · slot 9

Home Run

1+ HR

Hits

1+ hits

59%

Hits

2+ hits

20%

Total Bases

2+ bases

31%

Total Bases

3+ bases

16%

Total Bases

4+ bases

RBIs

1+ RBI

25%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

THE READ

Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 59% against 67%.

Batting 9 · bats R
Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
Facing Paul Skenes

III · METHODOLOGY

How this read was built.

Simulation. 5,000 Monte Carlo trials of this game using real play-by-play data, confirmed lineups, pitcher quality, bullpen depth, defensive runs saved, catcher framing, umpire K-zones, and per-batter rates regressed with empirical Bayes.
What the number means. The share of those 5,000 trials in which the outcome happened — the model's own estimate, not a claim that a sportsbook has mispriced it. We publish it next to the reasoning that produced it and let the settlement record below speak for itself.
Settlement. Every read on this page is graded by Kalshi's own settlement market once the game ends. The post-game version of this page shows what was confirmed and what was missed.

DISCLOSURE

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