AI MODEL READ
SETTLEDTOR vs BOS
Toronto Blue Jays at Boston Red Sox
Friday, July 24, 2026
SIMULATION · ONE TRIAL, EVERY MARKET
Watch the model run this game.
One representative trial from the TOR @ BOS simulation — real per-AB batter, outcome, and score progression from the spine. Every game-level market updates in lock-step with each play.
FIELD
PITCH SEQUENCE
TOR Leadoff (R) vs HP
OUTCOME DISTRIBUTION
TOR Leadoff in this spot
BATTER PROPS · TOR LEADOFF
PITCHER PROPS · HP
GAME MARKETS · LIVE
updating per event
MONEYLINE
BOS to win
TOTAL
Over 8.5
RUN LINE
BOS -1.5
TEAM TOTAL BOS
Over 4.5
FIRST 5 INN
BOS wins F5
event 1 / 20 · pitching
Every card on the board is a live read. As the game changes, the math changes with it — every prop, every market line, in real time. Cards turn green when they hit, red when they miss.
I · GAME-LEVEL MODEL
Win probability + total.
GAME WINNER
✗ MISSEDToronto vs Boston Winner?
5,000-TRIAL SIMULATION
II · EVERY MARKET WE RAN
Swipe the whole board.
One card per hitter and pitcher, plus the game markets — the sim's own number on every line it priced, with the reasoning that produced it.
169 simulated lines · raw sim
1 / 21
Game Markets
TOR @ BOS · full-game reads
Moneyline
TOR to win
65%
1st 5 Innings
BOS F5
25%
Game Total
Over 8.5
43%
1st 5 Total
Over 4.5
42%
Run Line
BOS -1.5
22%
Team Total
TOR Over 4.5
50%
Team Total
BOS Over 4.5
28%
THE READ
TOR projects to outscore BOS by 1.63 runs across 5,000 trials.
- Projected runs: TOR 4.90, BOS 3.27
- Dylan Cease (TOR) vs Sonny Gray (BOS)
- Run on league-average lineups — refreshes when lineups post
Dylan Cease
TOR SP · vs. BOS
Strikeouts
5+ Ks
96%
Strikeouts
6+ Ks
91%
Strikeouts
7+ Ks
82%
Strikeouts
8+ Ks
71%
Strikeouts
9+ Ks
56%
Outs Recorded
15+ outs
76%
Outs Recorded
18+ outs
44%
Hits Allowed
5+ hits
30%
Hits Allowed
6+ hits
18%
THE READ
Strikeout-heavy projection — the sim has him at 9.1 Ks, with the ladder still live into the 8+ rung.
- Sim projects 9.1 strikeouts
- 96% to reach 5+ against BOS
Sonny Gray
BOS SP · vs. TOR
Strikeouts
5+ Ks
41%
Strikeouts
6+ Ks
23%
Strikeouts
7+ Ks
10%
Strikeouts
8+ Ks
4%
Strikeouts
9+ Ks
1%
Outs Recorded
15+ outs
92%
Outs Recorded
18+ outs
39%
Hits Allowed
5+ hits
68%
Hits Allowed
6+ hits
55%
THE READ
Middle-of-the-road strikeout projection at 4.2 Ks.
- Sim projects 4.2 strikeouts
- 41% to reach 5+ against TOR
Willson Contreras
BOS · bats R · slot 4
Home Run
1+ HR
22%
Hits
1+ hits
70%
Hits
2+ hits
30%
Total Bases
2+ bases
49%
Total Bases
3+ bases
34%
Total Bases
4+ bases
27%
RBIs
1+ RBI
41%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
19%
THE READ
Stands out most on 1+ HR — 22% against 13% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 4 · bats R
- Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
- Facing Dylan Cease
Kazuma Okamoto
TOR · bats R · slot 3
Home Run
1+ HR
21%
Hits
1+ hits
69%
Hits
2+ hits
29%
Total Bases
2+ bases
45%
Total Bases
3+ bases
31%
Total Bases
4+ bases
24%
RBIs
1+ RBI
38%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
17%
THE READ
Stands out most on 1+ HR — 21% against 13% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 3 · bats R
- Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
- Facing Sonny Gray
George Springer
TOR · slot 4
Home Run
1+ HR
20%
Hits
1+ hits
73%
Hits
2+ hits
35%
Total Bases
2+ bases
52%
Total Bases
3+ bases
36%
Total Bases
4+ bases
26%
RBIs
1+ RBI
41%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
19%
THE READ
Stands out most on 1+ HR — 20% against 13% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 4
- Facing Sonny Gray
Ernie Clement
TOR · bats R · slot 1
Home Run
1+ HR
10%
Hits
1+ hits
75%
Hits
2+ hits
38%
Total Bases
2+ bases
49%
Total Bases
3+ bases
28%
Total Bases
4+ bases
18%
RBIs
1+ RBI
30%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
10%
THE READ
Stands out most on 2+ hits — 38% against 27% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 1 · bats R
- Facing Sonny Gray
Wilyer Abreu
BOS · bats L · slot 3
Home Run
1+ HR
17%
Hits
1+ hits
69%
Hits
2+ hits
28%
Total Bases
2+ bases
45%
Total Bases
3+ bases
29%
Total Bases
4+ bases
21%
RBIs
1+ RBI
35%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
15%
THE READ
Stands out most on 1+ HR — 17% against 13% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 3 · bats L
- Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
- Facing Dylan Cease
Vladimir Guerrero Jr.
TOR · bats R · slot 2
Home Run
1+ HR
11%
Hits
1+ hits
72%
Hits
2+ hits
35%
Total Bases
2+ bases
48%
Total Bases
3+ bases
28%
Total Bases
4+ bases
18%
RBIs
1+ RBI
32%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
12%
THE READ
Stands out most on 2+ hits — 35% against 27% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 2 · bats R
- Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
- Facing Sonny Gray
Alejandro Kirk
TOR · bats R · slot 5
Home Run
1+ HR
13%
Hits
1+ hits
69%
Hits
2+ hits
29%
Total Bases
2+ bases
43%
Total Bases
3+ bases
26%
Total Bases
4+ bases
18%
RBIs
1+ RBI
34%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
15%
THE READ
Stands out most on 2+ RBIs — 15% against 13% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 5 · bats R
- Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
- Facing Sonny Gray
Jarren Duran
BOS · bats L · slot 7
Home Run
1+ HR
15%
Hits
1+ hits
58%
Hits
2+ hits
18%
Total Bases
2+ bases
36%
Total Bases
3+ bases
22%
Total Bases
4+ bases
17%
RBIs
1+ RBI
29%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
12%
THE READ
Stands out most on 1+ HR — 15% against 13% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 7 · bats L
- Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
- Facing Dylan Cease
Ceddanne Rafaela
BOS · bats R · slot 2
Home Run
1+ HR
12%
Hits
1+ hits
71%
Hits
2+ hits
31%
Total Bases
2+ bases
45%
Total Bases
3+ bases
26%
Total Bases
4+ bases
17%
RBIs
1+ RBI
31%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
11%
THE READ
Stands out most on 2+ hits — 31% against 27% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 2 · bats R
- Facing Dylan Cease
Luis Urías
TOR · bats R · slot 8
Home Run
1+ HR
14%
Hits
1+ hits
68%
Hits
2+ hits
29%
Total Bases
2+ bases
42%
Total Bases
3+ bases
26%
Total Bases
4+ bases
18%
RBIs
1+ RBI
33%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
14%
THE READ
Stands out most on 2+ RBIs — 14% against 13% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 8 · bats R
- Facing Sonny Gray
Anthony Seigler
BOS · bats S · slot 1
Home Run
1+ HR
11%
Hits
1+ hits
68%
Hits
2+ hits
29%
Total Bases
2+ bases
43%
Total Bases
3+ bases
25%
Total Bases
4+ bases
16%
RBIs
1+ RBI
29%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
10%
THE READ
Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 68%.
- Batting 1 · bats S
- Facing Dylan Cease
Davis Schneider
TOR · slot 6
Home Run
1+ HR
13%
Hits
1+ hits
65%
Hits
2+ hits
25%
Total Bases
2+ bases
39%
Total Bases
3+ bases
24%
Total Bases
4+ bases
17%
RBIs
1+ RBI
32%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
13%
THE READ
Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 65%.
- Batting 6
- Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
- Facing Sonny Gray
Daulton Varsho
TOR · bats L · slot 7
Home Run
1+ HR
11%
Hits
1+ hits
66%
Hits
2+ hits
27%
Total Bases
2+ bases
40%
Total Bases
3+ bases
24%
Total Bases
4+ bases
16%
RBIs
1+ RBI
31%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
12%
THE READ
Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 66%.
- Batting 7 · bats L
- Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
- Facing Sonny Gray
Masataka Yoshida
BOS · bats L · slot 5
Home Run
1+ HR
9%
Hits
1+ hits
65%
Hits
2+ hits
24%
Total Bases
2+ bases
37%
Total Bases
3+ bases
20%
Total Bases
4+ bases
12%
RBIs
1+ RBI
30%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
11%
THE READ
Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 65%.
- Batting 5 · bats L
- Facing Dylan Cease
Andruw Monasterio
BOS · bats R · slot 8
Home Run
1+ HR
10%
Hits
1+ hits
64%
Hits
2+ hits
23%
Total Bases
2+ bases
38%
Total Bases
3+ bases
21%
Total Bases
4+ bases
14%
RBIs
1+ RBI
27%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
10%
THE READ
Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 64%.
- Batting 8 · bats R
- Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
- Facing Dylan Cease
Myles Straw
TOR · bats R · slot 9
Home Run
1+ HR
8%
Hits
1+ hits
61%
Hits
2+ hits
22%
Total Bases
2+ bases
34%
Total Bases
3+ bases
18%
Total Bases
4+ bases
10%
RBIs
1+ RBI
26%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
9%
THE READ
Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 61% against 67%.
- Batting 9 · bats R
- Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
- Facing Sonny Gray
Caleb Durbin
BOS · bats R · slot 6
Home Run
1+ HR
10%
Hits
1+ hits
61%
Hits
2+ hits
20%
Total Bases
2+ bases
34%
Total Bases
3+ bases
18%
Total Bases
4+ bases
13%
RBIs
1+ RBI
27%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
11%
THE READ
Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 61% against 67%.
- Batting 6 · bats R
- Facing Dylan Cease
Connor Wong
BOS · bats R · slot 9
Home Run
1+ HR
7%
Hits
1+ hits
58%
Hits
2+ hits
19%
Total Bases
2+ bases
31%
Total Bases
3+ bases
16%
Total Bases
4+ bases
9%
RBIs
1+ RBI
22%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
7%
THE READ
Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 58% against 67%.
- Batting 9 · bats R
- Facing Dylan Cease
III · METHODOLOGY
How this read was built.
- Simulation. 5,000 Monte Carlo trials of this game using real play-by-play data, confirmed lineups, pitcher quality, bullpen depth, defensive runs saved, catcher framing, umpire K-zones, and per-batter rates regressed with empirical Bayes.
- What the number means. The share of those 5,000 trials in which the outcome happened — the model's own estimate, not a claim that a sportsbook has mispriced it. We publish it next to the reasoning that produced it and let the settlement record below speak for itself.
- Settlement. Every read on this page is graded by Kalshi's own settlement market once the game ends. The post-game version of this page shows what was confirmed and what was missed.
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