AI MODEL READ
SETTLEDSEA vs TEX
Seattle Mariners at Texas Rangers
Friday, July 24, 2026
SIMULATION · ONE TRIAL, EVERY MARKET
Watch the model run this game.
One representative trial from the SEA @ TEX simulation — real per-AB batter, outcome, and score progression from the spine. Every game-level market updates in lock-step with each play.
FIELD
PITCH SEQUENCE
SEA Leadoff (R) vs HP
OUTCOME DISTRIBUTION
SEA Leadoff in this spot
BATTER PROPS · SEA LEADOFF
PITCHER PROPS · HP
GAME MARKETS · LIVE
updating per event
MONEYLINE
TEX to win
TOTAL
Over 8.5
RUN LINE
TEX -1.5
TEAM TOTAL TEX
Over 4.5
FIRST 5 INN
TEX wins F5
event 1 / 20 · pitching
Every card on the board is a live read. As the game changes, the math changes with it — every prop, every market line, in real time. Cards turn green when they hit, red when they miss.
I · GAME-LEVEL MODEL
Win probability + total.
GAME WINNER
✗ MISSEDSeattle vs Texas Winner?
5,000-TRIAL SIMULATION
II · EVERY MARKET WE RAN
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One card per hitter and pitcher, plus the game markets — the sim's own number on every line it priced, with the reasoning that produced it.
169 simulated lines · raw sim
1 / 21
Game Markets
SEA @ TEX · full-game reads
Moneyline
TEX to win
54%
1st 5 Innings
TEX F5
46%
Game Total
Over 8.5
44%
1st 5 Total
Over 4.5
43%
Run Line
TEX -1.5
38%
Team Total
SEA Over 4.5
38%
Team Total
TEX Over 4.5
41%
THE READ
The sim splits this one — 8.29 total runs with under a quarter-run between the sides.
- Projected runs: SEA 4.02, TEX 4.27
- Bryan Woo (SEA) vs Nathan Eovaldi (TEX)
- Run on league-average lineups — refreshes when lineups post
Bryan Woo
SEA SP · vs. TEX
Strikeouts
5+ Ks
71%
Strikeouts
6+ Ks
54%
Strikeouts
7+ Ks
37%
Strikeouts
8+ Ks
23%
Strikeouts
9+ Ks
13%
Outs Recorded
15+ outs
95%
Outs Recorded
18+ outs
75%
Hits Allowed
5+ hits
72%
Hits Allowed
6+ hits
60%
THE READ
Middle-of-the-road strikeout projection at 5.9 Ks.
- Sim projects 5.9 strikeouts
- 71% to reach 5+ against TEX
Nathan Eovaldi
TEX SP · vs. SEA
Strikeouts
5+ Ks
83%
Strikeouts
6+ Ks
68%
Strikeouts
7+ Ks
51%
Strikeouts
8+ Ks
34%
Strikeouts
9+ Ks
21%
Outs Recorded
15+ outs
79%
Outs Recorded
18+ outs
43%
Hits Allowed
5+ hits
50%
Hits Allowed
6+ hits
36%
THE READ
Strikeout-heavy projection — the sim has him at 6.6 Ks, with the ladder still live into the 8+ rung.
- Sim projects 6.6 strikeouts
- 83% to reach 5+ against SEA
Dominic Canzone
SEA · bats L · slot 3
Home Run
1+ HR
24%
Hits
1+ hits
72%
Hits
2+ hits
33%
Total Bases
2+ bases
51%
Total Bases
3+ bases
37%
Total Bases
4+ bases
29%
RBIs
1+ RBI
41%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
20%
THE READ
Stands out most on 1+ HR — 24% against 13% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 3 · bats L
- Cold on results, but hitting the ball well
- Facing Nathan Eovaldi
Joc Pederson
TEX · bats L · slot 1
Home Run
1+ HR
23%
Hits
1+ hits
73%
Hits
2+ hits
34%
Total Bases
2+ bases
52%
Total Bases
3+ bases
36%
Total Bases
4+ bases
29%
RBIs
1+ RBI
37%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
16%
THE READ
Stands out most on 1+ HR — 23% against 13% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 1 · bats L
- Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
- Facing Bryan Woo
Julio Rodríguez
SEA · slot 2
Home Run
1+ HR
22%
Hits
1+ hits
72%
Hits
2+ hits
33%
Total Bases
2+ bases
50%
Total Bases
3+ bases
34%
Total Bases
4+ bases
26%
RBIs
1+ RBI
38%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
16%
THE READ
Stands out most on 1+ HR — 22% against 13% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 2
- Facing Nathan Eovaldi
Randy Arozarena
SEA · bats R · slot 1
Home Run
1+ HR
16%
Hits
1+ hits
73%
Hits
2+ hits
35%
Total Bases
2+ bases
50%
Total Bases
3+ bases
33%
Total Bases
4+ bases
23%
RBIs
1+ RBI
33%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
12%
THE READ
Stands out most on 2+ hits — 35% against 26% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 1 · bats R
- Facing Nathan Eovaldi
Wyatt Langford
TEX · slot 2
Home Run
1+ HR
15%
Hits
1+ hits
72%
Hits
2+ hits
33%
Total Bases
2+ bases
48%
Total Bases
3+ bases
30%
Total Bases
4+ bases
21%
RBIs
1+ RBI
33%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
12%
THE READ
Stands out most on 2+ hits — 33% against 26% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 2
- Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
- Facing Bryan Woo
Weston Wilson
SEA · bats R · slot 8
Home Run
1+ HR
16%
Hits
1+ hits
66%
Hits
2+ hits
25%
Total Bases
2+ bases
42%
Total Bases
3+ bases
27%
Total Bases
4+ bases
21%
RBIs
1+ RBI
33%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
14%
THE READ
Stands out most on 1+ HR — 16% against 13% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 8 · bats R
- Facing Nathan Eovaldi
Brandon Nimmo
TEX · bats L · slot 4
Home Run
1+ HR
11%
Hits
1+ hits
70%
Hits
2+ hits
30%
Total Bases
2+ bases
45%
Total Bases
3+ bases
27%
Total Bases
4+ bases
17%
RBIs
1+ RBI
32%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
11%
THE READ
Stands out most on 2+ hits — 30% against 26% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 4 · bats L
- Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
- Facing Bryan Woo
Josh Naylor
SEA · bats L · slot 5
Home Run
1+ HR
9%
Hits
1+ hits
68%
Hits
2+ hits
27%
Total Bases
2+ bases
39%
Total Bases
3+ bases
22%
Total Bases
4+ bases
13%
RBIs
1+ RBI
28%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
10%
THE READ
Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 68%.
- Batting 5 · bats L
- Facing Nathan Eovaldi
Cal Raleigh
SEA · bats S · slot 4
Home Run
1+ HR
13%
Hits
1+ hits
60%
Hits
2+ hits
21%
Total Bases
2+ bases
35%
Total Bases
3+ bases
22%
Total Bases
4+ bases
16%
RBIs
1+ RBI
30%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
12%
THE READ
Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 60%.
- Batting 4 · bats S
- Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
- Facing Nathan Eovaldi
Nicky Lopez
TEX · bats L · slot 7
Home Run
1+ HR
8%
Hits
1+ hits
67%
Hits
2+ hits
25%
Total Bases
2+ bases
38%
Total Bases
3+ bases
21%
Total Bases
4+ bases
12%
RBIs
1+ RBI
26%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
8%
THE READ
Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 67%.
- Batting 7 · bats L
- Facing Bryan Woo
Ezequiel Duran
TEX · bats R · slot 3
Home Run
1+ HR
7%
Hits
1+ hits
66%
Hits
2+ hits
25%
Total Bases
2+ bases
36%
Total Bases
3+ bases
19%
Total Bases
4+ bases
11%
RBIs
1+ RBI
26%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
8%
THE READ
Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 66%.
- Batting 3 · bats R
- Facing Bryan Woo
Cam Cauley
TEX · bats R · slot 9
Home Run
1+ HR
10%
Hits
1+ hits
64%
Hits
2+ hits
22%
Total Bases
2+ bases
37%
Total Bases
3+ bases
21%
Total Bases
4+ bases
14%
RBIs
1+ RBI
27%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
9%
THE READ
Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 64%.
- Batting 9 · bats R
- Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
- Facing Bryan Woo
Cole Young
SEA · bats L · slot 6
Home Run
1+ HR
10%
Hits
1+ hits
63%
Hits
2+ hits
24%
Total Bases
2+ bases
36%
Total Bases
3+ bases
19%
Total Bases
4+ bases
13%
RBIs
1+ RBI
27%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
10%
THE READ
Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 63%.
- Batting 6 · bats L
- Facing Nathan Eovaldi
Mitch Garver
SEA · bats R · slot 7
Home Run
1+ HR
11%
Hits
1+ hits
61%
Hits
2+ hits
22%
Total Bases
2+ bases
36%
Total Bases
3+ bases
21%
Total Bases
4+ bases
15%
RBIs
1+ RBI
28%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
11%
THE READ
Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 61%.
- Batting 7 · bats R
- Facing Nathan Eovaldi
Jake Burger
TEX · bats R · slot 6
Home Run
1+ HR
12%
Hits
1+ hits
62%
Hits
2+ hits
22%
Total Bases
2+ bases
37%
Total Bases
3+ bases
21%
Total Bases
4+ bases
15%
RBIs
1+ RBI
28%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
11%
THE READ
Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 62% against 66%.
- Batting 6 · bats R
- Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
- Facing Bryan Woo
Elias Díaz
TEX · bats R · slot 8
Home Run
1+ HR
8%
Hits
1+ hits
62%
Hits
2+ hits
23%
Total Bases
2+ bases
35%
Total Bases
3+ bases
19%
Total Bases
4+ bases
11%
RBIs
1+ RBI
25%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
8%
THE READ
Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 62% against 66%.
- Batting 8 · bats R
- Facing Bryan Woo
Evan Carter
TEX · bats L · slot 5
Home Run
1+ HR
9%
Hits
1+ hits
60%
Hits
2+ hits
21%
Total Bases
2+ bases
34%
Total Bases
3+ bases
19%
Total Bases
4+ bases
12%
RBIs
1+ RBI
26%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
10%
THE READ
Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 60% against 66%.
- Batting 5 · bats L
- Facing Bryan Woo
Colt Emerson
SEA · bats L · slot 9
Home Run
1+ HR
10%
Hits
1+ hits
55%
Hits
2+ hits
16%
Total Bases
2+ bases
30%
Total Bases
3+ bases
17%
Total Bases
4+ bases
12%
RBIs
1+ RBI
25%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
9%
THE READ
Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 55% against 66%.
- Batting 9 · bats L
- Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
- Facing Nathan Eovaldi
III · METHODOLOGY
How this read was built.
- Simulation. 5,000 Monte Carlo trials of this game using real play-by-play data, confirmed lineups, pitcher quality, bullpen depth, defensive runs saved, catcher framing, umpire K-zones, and per-batter rates regressed with empirical Bayes.
- What the number means. The share of those 5,000 trials in which the outcome happened — the model's own estimate, not a claim that a sportsbook has mispriced it. We publish it next to the reasoning that produced it and let the settlement record below speak for itself.
- Settlement. Every read on this page is graded by Kalshi's own settlement market once the game ends. The post-game version of this page shows what was confirmed and what was missed.
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