AI MODEL READ
SETTLEDSD vs MIA
San Diego Padres at Miami Marlins
Friday, July 24, 2026
SIMULATION · ONE TRIAL, EVERY MARKET
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One representative trial from the SD @ MIA simulation — real per-AB batter, outcome, and score progression from the spine. Every game-level market updates in lock-step with each play.
FIELD
PITCH SEQUENCE
SD Leadoff (R) vs HP
OUTCOME DISTRIBUTION
SD Leadoff in this spot
BATTER PROPS · SD LEADOFF
PITCHER PROPS · HP
GAME MARKETS · LIVE
updating per event
MONEYLINE
MIA to win
TOTAL
Over 8.5
RUN LINE
MIA -1.5
TEAM TOTAL MIA
Over 4.5
FIRST 5 INN
MIA wins F5
event 1 / 15 · pitching
Every card on the board is a live read. As the game changes, the math changes with it — every prop, every market line, in real time. Cards turn green when they hit, red when they miss.
I · GAME-LEVEL MODEL
Win probability + total.
GAME WINNER
✓ CONFIRMEDSan Diego vs Miami Winner?
5,000-TRIAL SIMULATION
II · EVERY MARKET WE RAN
Swipe the whole board.
One card per hitter and pitcher, plus the game markets — the sim's own number on every line it priced, with the reasoning that produced it.
169 simulated lines · raw sim
1 / 21
Game Markets
SD @ MIA · full-game reads
Moneyline
MIA to win
55%
1st 5 Innings
MIA F5
49%
Game Total
Over 8.5
46%
1st 5 Total
Over 4.5
46%
Run Line
MIA -1.5
40%
Team Total
SD Over 4.5
39%
Team Total
MIA Over 4.5
43%
THE READ
MIA projects to outscore SD by 0.32 runs across 5,000 trials.
- Projected runs: SD 4.09, MIA 4.41
- JP Sears (SD) vs Eury Pérez (MIA)
- Run on league-average lineups — refreshes when lineups post
JP Sears
SD SP · vs. MIA
Strikeouts
5+ Ks
17%
Strikeouts
6+ Ks
7%
Strikeouts
7+ Ks
2%
Strikeouts
8+ Ks
1%
Strikeouts
9+ Ks
0%
Outs Recorded
15+ outs
25%
Outs Recorded
18+ outs
0%
Hits Allowed
5+ hits
44%
Hits Allowed
6+ hits
31%
THE READ
Low-strikeout projection at 3.0 Ks — the ladder thins out fast above the first rung.
- Sim projects 3.0 strikeouts
- 17% to reach 5+ against MIA
Eury Pérez
MIA SP · vs. SD
Strikeouts
5+ Ks
88%
Strikeouts
6+ Ks
74%
Strikeouts
7+ Ks
57%
Strikeouts
8+ Ks
40%
Strikeouts
9+ Ks
25%
Outs Recorded
15+ outs
87%
Outs Recorded
18+ outs
44%
Hits Allowed
5+ hits
48%
Hits Allowed
6+ hits
33%
THE READ
Strikeout-heavy projection — the sim has him at 7.0 Ks, with the ladder still live into the 8+ rung.
- Sim projects 7.0 strikeouts
- 88% to reach 5+ against SD
Manny Machado
SD · bats R · slot 3
Home Run
1+ HR
27%
Hits
1+ hits
71%
Hits
2+ hits
32%
Total Bases
2+ bases
52%
Total Bases
3+ bases
38%
Total Bases
4+ bases
31%
RBIs
1+ RBI
43%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
22%
THE READ
Stands out most on 1+ HR — 27% against 16% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 3 · bats R
- Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
- Facing Eury Pérez
Heriberto Hernández
MIA · bats R · slot 3
Home Run
1+ HR
26%
Hits
1+ hits
76%
Hits
2+ hits
37%
Total Bases
2+ bases
56%
Total Bases
3+ bases
40%
Total Bases
4+ bases
32%
RBIs
1+ RBI
46%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
23%
THE READ
Stands out most on 1+ HR — 26% against 16% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 3 · bats R
- Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
- Facing JP Sears
Griffin Conine
MIA · bats L · slot 6
Home Run
1+ HR
25%
Hits
1+ hits
74%
Hits
2+ hits
35%
Total Bases
2+ bases
54%
Total Bases
3+ bases
38%
Total Bases
4+ bases
31%
RBIs
1+ RBI
46%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
23%
THE READ
Stands out most on 1+ HR — 25% against 16% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 6 · bats L
- Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
- Facing JP Sears
Ty France
SD · bats R · slot 4
Home Run
1+ HR
24%
Hits
1+ hits
75%
Hits
2+ hits
35%
Total Bases
2+ bases
52%
Total Bases
3+ bases
37%
Total Bases
4+ bases
29%
RBIs
1+ RBI
44%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
22%
THE READ
Stands out most on 1+ HR — 24% against 16% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 4 · bats R
- Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
- Facing Eury Pérez
Kyle Stowers
MIA · bats L · slot 2
Home Run
1+ HR
22%
Hits
1+ hits
75%
Hits
2+ hits
36%
Total Bases
2+ bases
54%
Total Bases
3+ bases
37%
Total Bases
4+ bases
29%
RBIs
1+ RBI
42%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
19%
THE READ
Stands out most on 1+ HR — 22% against 16% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 2 · bats L
- Facing JP Sears
Otto Lopez
MIA · bats R · slot 1
Home Run
1+ HR
14%
Hits
1+ hits
79%
Hits
2+ hits
43%
Total Bases
2+ bases
57%
Total Bases
3+ bases
37%
Total Bases
4+ bases
25%
RBIs
1+ RBI
37%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
14%
THE READ
Stands out most on 2+ hits — 43% against 30% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 1 · bats R
- Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
- Facing JP Sears
Fernando Tatis Jr.
SD · bats R · slot 1
Home Run
1+ HR
13%
Hits
1+ hits
79%
Hits
2+ hits
42%
Total Bases
2+ bases
56%
Total Bases
3+ bases
36%
Total Bases
4+ bases
24%
RBIs
1+ RBI
37%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
14%
THE READ
Stands out most on 2+ hits — 42% against 30% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 1 · bats R
- Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
- Facing Eury Pérez
Liam Hicks
MIA · bats L · slot 5
Home Run
1+ HR
17%
Hits
1+ hits
70%
Hits
2+ hits
30%
Total Bases
2+ bases
46%
Total Bases
3+ bases
29%
Total Bases
4+ bases
22%
RBIs
1+ RBI
41%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
19%
THE READ
Stands out most on 2+ RBIs — 19% against 16% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 5 · bats L
- Facing JP Sears
Joe Mack
MIA · bats L · slot 9
Home Run
1+ HR
18%
Hits
1+ hits
65%
Hits
2+ hits
25%
Total Bases
2+ bases
43%
Total Bases
3+ bases
28%
Total Bases
4+ bases
21%
RBIs
1+ RBI
36%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
16%
THE READ
Stands out most on 1+ HR — 18% against 16% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 9 · bats L
- Facing JP Sears
Luis Campusano
SD · bats R · slot 6
Home Run
1+ HR
17%
Hits
1+ hits
73%
Hits
2+ hits
33%
Total Bases
2+ bases
49%
Total Bases
3+ bases
31%
Total Bases
4+ bases
22%
RBIs
1+ RBI
36%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
15%
THE READ
Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 73%.
- Batting 6 · bats R
- Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
- Facing Eury Pérez
Gavin Sheets
SD · bats L · slot 7
Home Run
1+ HR
17%
Hits
1+ hits
65%
Hits
2+ hits
26%
Total Bases
2+ bases
43%
Total Bases
3+ bases
27%
Total Bases
4+ bases
21%
RBIs
1+ RBI
34%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
15%
THE READ
Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 65%.
- Batting 7 · bats L
- Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
- Facing Eury Pérez
Xavier Edwards
MIA · bats S · slot 4
Home Run
1+ HR
7%
Hits
1+ hits
70%
Hits
2+ hits
28%
Total Bases
2+ bases
41%
Total Bases
3+ bases
22%
Total Bases
4+ bases
12%
RBIs
1+ RBI
32%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
11%
THE READ
Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 70%.
- Batting 4 · bats S
- Facing JP Sears
Jackson Merrill
SD · bats L · slot 5
Home Run
1+ HR
14%
Hits
1+ hits
68%
Hits
2+ hits
28%
Total Bases
2+ bases
42%
Total Bases
3+ bases
27%
Total Bases
4+ bases
19%
RBIs
1+ RBI
35%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
15%
THE READ
Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 68%.
- Batting 5 · bats L
- Hot streak, thin underlying support
- Facing Eury Pérez
Jake Cronenworth
SD · bats L · slot 2
Home Run
1+ HR
10%
Hits
1+ hits
68%
Hits
2+ hits
29%
Total Bases
2+ bases
41%
Total Bases
3+ bases
24%
Total Bases
4+ bases
15%
RBIs
1+ RBI
31%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
12%
THE READ
Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 68%.
- Batting 2 · bats L
- Facing Eury Pérez
Javier Sanoja
MIA · bats R · slot 8
Home Run
1+ HR
8%
Hits
1+ hits
66%
Hits
2+ hits
25%
Total Bases
2+ bases
37%
Total Bases
3+ bases
20%
Total Bases
4+ bases
12%
RBIs
1+ RBI
31%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
11%
THE READ
Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 66% against 70%.
- Batting 8 · bats R
- Facing JP Sears
Sung-Mun Song
SD · bats L · slot 9
Home Run
1+ HR
8%
Hits
1+ hits
64%
Hits
2+ hits
25%
Total Bases
2+ bases
37%
Total Bases
3+ bases
20%
Total Bases
4+ bases
12%
RBIs
1+ RBI
28%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
10%
THE READ
Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 64% against 70%.
- Batting 9 · bats L
- Facing Eury Pérez
Xander Bogaerts
SD · bats R · slot 8
Home Run
1+ HR
10%
Hits
1+ hits
63%
Hits
2+ hits
22%
Total Bases
2+ bases
37%
Total Bases
3+ bases
21%
Total Bases
4+ bases
14%
RBIs
1+ RBI
30%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
11%
THE READ
Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 63% against 70%.
- Batting 8 · bats R
- Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
- Facing Eury Pérez
Jakob Marsee
MIA · bats L · slot 7
Home Run
1+ HR
6%
Hits
1+ hits
58%
Hits
2+ hits
18%
Total Bases
2+ bases
30%
Total Bases
3+ bases
14%
Total Bases
4+ bases
9%
RBIs
1+ RBI
27%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
9%
THE READ
Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 58% against 70%.
- Batting 7 · bats L
- Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
- Facing JP Sears
III · METHODOLOGY
How this read was built.
- Simulation. 5,000 Monte Carlo trials of this game using real play-by-play data, confirmed lineups, pitcher quality, bullpen depth, defensive runs saved, catcher framing, umpire K-zones, and per-batter rates regressed with empirical Bayes.
- What the number means. The share of those 5,000 trials in which the outcome happened — the model's own estimate, not a claim that a sportsbook has mispriced it. We publish it next to the reasoning that produced it and let the settlement record below speak for itself.
- Settlement. Every read on this page is graded by Kalshi's own settlement market once the game ends. The post-game version of this page shows what was confirmed and what was missed.
DISCLOSURE
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