AI MODEL READ
SETTLEDNYY vs PHI
New York Yankees at Philadelphia Phillies
Friday, July 24, 2026
SIMULATION · ONE TRIAL, EVERY MARKET
Watch the model run this game.
One representative trial from the NYY @ PHI simulation — real per-AB batter, outcome, and score progression from the spine. Every game-level market updates in lock-step with each play.
FIELD
PITCH SEQUENCE
NYY Leadoff (R) vs HP
OUTCOME DISTRIBUTION
NYY Leadoff in this spot
BATTER PROPS · NYY LEADOFF
PITCHER PROPS · HP
GAME MARKETS · LIVE
updating per event
MONEYLINE
PHI to win
TOTAL
Over 8.5
RUN LINE
PHI -1.5
TEAM TOTAL PHI
Over 4.5
FIRST 5 INN
PHI wins F5
event 1 / 16 · pitching
Every card on the board is a live read. As the game changes, the math changes with it — every prop, every market line, in real time. Cards turn green when they hit, red when they miss.
I · GAME-LEVEL MODEL
Win probability + total.
GAME WINNER
✓ CONFIRMEDNew York Y vs Philadelphia Winner?
5,000-TRIAL SIMULATION
II · EVERY MARKET WE RAN
Swipe the whole board.
One card per hitter and pitcher, plus the game markets — the sim's own number on every line it priced, with the reasoning that produced it.
169 simulated lines · raw sim
1 / 21
Game Markets
NYY @ PHI · full-game reads
Moneyline
PHI to win
57%
1st 5 Innings
PHI F5
48%
Game Total
Over 8.5
40%
1st 5 Total
Over 4.5
39%
Run Line
PHI -1.5
41%
Team Total
NYY Over 4.5
34%
Team Total
PHI Over 4.5
41%
THE READ
PHI projects to outscore NYY by 0.45 runs across 5,000 trials.
- Projected runs: NYY 3.72, PHI 4.17
- Cam Schlittler (NYY) vs Jesús Luzardo (PHI)
- Run on confirmed lineups
Cam Schlittler
NYY SP · vs. PHI
Strikeouts
5+ Ks
75%
Strikeouts
6+ Ks
60%
Strikeouts
7+ Ks
46%
Strikeouts
8+ Ks
33%
Strikeouts
9+ Ks
23%
Outs Recorded
15+ outs
62%
Outs Recorded
18+ outs
42%
Hits Allowed
5+ hits
52%
Hits Allowed
6+ hits
39%
THE READ
Strikeout-heavy projection — the sim has him at 6.5 Ks, with the ladder still live into the 8+ rung.
- Sim projects 6.5 strikeouts
- 75% to reach 5+ against PHI
Jesús Luzardo
PHI SP · vs. NYY
Strikeouts
5+ Ks
93%
Strikeouts
6+ Ks
85%
Strikeouts
7+ Ks
75%
Strikeouts
8+ Ks
63%
Strikeouts
9+ Ks
49%
Outs Recorded
15+ outs
84%
Outs Recorded
18+ outs
58%
Hits Allowed
5+ hits
50%
Hits Allowed
6+ hits
36%
THE READ
Strikeout-heavy projection — the sim has him at 8.5 Ks, with the ladder still live into the 8+ rung.
- Sim projects 8.5 strikeouts
- 93% to reach 5+ against NYY
Kyle Schwarber
PHI · bats L · slot 2
Home Run
1+ HR
30%
Hits
1+ hits
70%
Hits
2+ hits
29%
Total Bases
2+ bases
51%
Total Bases
3+ bases
39%
Total Bases
4+ bases
34%
RBIs
1+ RBI
41%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
19%
THE READ
Stands out most on 1+ HR — 30% against 14% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 2 · bats L
- Cold on results, but hitting the ball well
- Facing Cam Schlittler
Bryce Harper
PHI · bats L · slot 3
Home Run
1+ HR
26%
Hits
1+ hits
72%
Hits
2+ hits
32%
Total Bases
2+ bases
51%
Total Bases
3+ bases
37%
Total Bases
4+ bases
30%
RBIs
1+ RBI
40%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
17%
THE READ
Stands out most on 1+ HR — 26% against 14% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 3 · bats L
- Facing Cam Schlittler
Ben Rice
NYY · bats L · slot 2
Home Run
1+ HR
24%
Hits
1+ hits
70%
Hits
2+ hits
30%
Total Bases
2+ bases
50%
Total Bases
3+ bases
35%
Total Bases
4+ bases
29%
RBIs
1+ RBI
38%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
16%
THE READ
Stands out most on 1+ HR — 24% against 14% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 2 · bats L
- Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
- Facing Jesús Luzardo
Paul Goldschmidt
NYY · bats R · slot 1
Home Run
1+ HR
22%
Hits
1+ hits
70%
Hits
2+ hits
32%
Total Bases
2+ bases
50%
Total Bases
3+ bases
34%
Total Bases
4+ bases
27%
RBIs
1+ RBI
35%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
14%
THE READ
Stands out most on 4+ bases — 27% against 17% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 1 · bats R
- Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
- Facing Jesús Luzardo
Brandon Marsh
PHI · bats L · slot 4
Home Run
1+ HR
20%
Hits
1+ hits
73%
Hits
2+ hits
32%
Total Bases
2+ bases
50%
Total Bases
3+ bases
34%
Total Bases
4+ bases
25%
RBIs
1+ RBI
37%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
16%
THE READ
Stands out most on 2+ RBIs — 16% against 11% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 4 · bats L
- Facing Cam Schlittler
Trea Turner
PHI · bats R · slot 1
Home Run
1+ HR
16%
Hits
1+ hits
69%
Hits
2+ hits
29%
Total Bases
2+ bases
46%
Total Bases
3+ bases
29%
Total Bases
4+ bases
21%
RBIs
1+ RBI
29%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
10%
THE READ
Stands out most on 2+ hits — 29% against 23% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 1 · bats R
- Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
- Facing Cam Schlittler
Trent Grisham
NYY · bats L · slot 7
Home Run
1+ HR
14%
Hits
1+ hits
63%
Hits
2+ hits
22%
Total Bases
2+ bases
40%
Total Bases
3+ bases
24%
Total Bases
4+ bases
17%
RBIs
1+ RBI
29%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
11%
THE READ
Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 63%.
- Batting 7 · bats L
- Facing Jesús Luzardo
Alec Bohm
PHI · bats R · slot 5
Home Run
1+ HR
11%
Hits
1+ hits
62%
Hits
2+ hits
22%
Total Bases
2+ bases
36%
Total Bases
3+ bases
21%
Total Bases
4+ bases
14%
RBIs
1+ RBI
28%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
10%
THE READ
Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 62%.
- Batting 5 · bats R
- Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
- Facing Cam Schlittler
Bryson Stott
PHI · bats L · slot 6
Home Run
1+ HR
8%
Hits
1+ hits
62%
Hits
2+ hits
22%
Total Bases
2+ bases
34%
Total Bases
3+ bases
18%
Total Bases
4+ bases
11%
RBIs
1+ RBI
23%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
8%
THE READ
Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 62%.
- Batting 6 · bats L
- Facing Cam Schlittler
Cody Bellinger
NYY · bats L · slot 4
Home Run
1+ HR
9%
Hits
1+ hits
61%
Hits
2+ hits
21%
Total Bases
2+ bases
34%
Total Bases
3+ bases
18%
Total Bases
4+ bases
12%
RBIs
1+ RBI
25%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
8%
THE READ
Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 61%.
- Batting 4 · bats L
- Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
- Facing Jesús Luzardo
Amed Rosario
NYY · bats R · slot 3
Home Run
1+ HR
12%
Hits
1+ hits
60%
Hits
2+ hits
21%
Total Bases
2+ bases
35%
Total Bases
3+ bases
21%
Total Bases
4+ bases
15%
RBIs
1+ RBI
26%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
9%
THE READ
Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 60%.
- Batting 3 · bats R
- Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
- Facing Jesús Luzardo
J.T. Realmuto
PHI · bats R · slot 7
Home Run
1+ HR
10%
Hits
1+ hits
60%
Hits
2+ hits
20%
Total Bases
2+ bases
36%
Total Bases
3+ bases
20%
Total Bases
4+ bases
13%
RBIs
1+ RBI
25%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
9%
THE READ
Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 60%.
- Batting 7 · bats R
- Facing Cam Schlittler
Anthony Volpe
NYY · bats R · slot 6
Home Run
1+ HR
8%
Hits
1+ hits
60%
Hits
2+ hits
20%
Total Bases
2+ bases
32%
Total Bases
3+ bases
17%
Total Bases
4+ bases
11%
RBIs
1+ RBI
23%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
7%
THE READ
Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 60% against 63%.
- Batting 6 · bats R
- Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
- Facing Jesús Luzardo
Jasson Domínguez
NYY · bats S · slot 5
Home Run
1+ HR
8%
Hits
1+ hits
60%
Hits
2+ hits
20%
Total Bases
2+ bases
32%
Total Bases
3+ bases
17%
Total Bases
4+ bases
10%
RBIs
1+ RBI
23%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
8%
THE READ
Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 60% against 63%.
- Batting 5 · bats S
- Facing Jesús Luzardo
Ali Sánchez
NYY · bats R · slot 9
Home Run
1+ HR
8%
Hits
1+ hits
59%
Hits
2+ hits
19%
Total Bases
2+ bases
33%
Total Bases
3+ bases
18%
Total Bases
4+ bases
11%
RBIs
1+ RBI
23%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
8%
THE READ
Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 59% against 63%.
- Batting 9 · bats R
- Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
- Facing Jesús Luzardo
Justin Crawford
PHI · bats L · slot 9
Home Run
1+ HR
4%
Hits
1+ hits
57%
Hits
2+ hits
18%
Total Bases
2+ bases
29%
Total Bases
3+ bases
13%
Total Bases
4+ bases
7%
RBIs
1+ RBI
19%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
5%
THE READ
Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 57% against 63%.
- Batting 9 · bats L
- Facing Cam Schlittler
Gabriel Rincones Jr.
PHI · bats L · slot 8
Home Run
1+ HR
9%
Hits
1+ hits
56%
Hits
2+ hits
16%
Total Bases
2+ bases
28%
Total Bases
3+ bases
15%
Total Bases
4+ bases
11%
RBIs
1+ RBI
22%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
7%
THE READ
Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 56% against 63%.
- Batting 8 · bats L
- Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
- Facing Cam Schlittler
José Caballero
NYY · bats R · slot 8
Home Run
1+ HR
7%
Hits
1+ hits
52%
Hits
2+ hits
16%
Total Bases
2+ bases
27%
Total Bases
3+ bases
13%
Total Bases
4+ bases
8%
RBIs
1+ RBI
20%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
7%
THE READ
Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 52% against 63%.
- Batting 8 · bats R
- Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
- Facing Jesús Luzardo
III · METHODOLOGY
How this read was built.
- Simulation. 5,000 Monte Carlo trials of this game using real play-by-play data, confirmed lineups, pitcher quality, bullpen depth, defensive runs saved, catcher framing, umpire K-zones, and per-batter rates regressed with empirical Bayes.
- What the number means. The share of those 5,000 trials in which the outcome happened — the model's own estimate, not a claim that a sportsbook has mispriced it. We publish it next to the reasoning that produced it and let the settlement record below speak for itself.
- Settlement. Every read on this page is graded by Kalshi's own settlement market once the game ends. The post-game version of this page shows what was confirmed and what was missed.
DISCLOSURE
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