AI MODEL READ
SETTLEDLAD vs NYM
Los Angeles Dodgers at New York Mets
Friday, July 24, 2026
SIMULATION · ONE TRIAL, EVERY MARKET
Watch the model run this game.
One representative trial from the LAD @ NYM simulation — real per-AB batter, outcome, and score progression from the spine. Every game-level market updates in lock-step with each play.
FIELD
PITCH SEQUENCE
LAD Leadoff (R) vs HP
OUTCOME DISTRIBUTION
LAD Leadoff in this spot
BATTER PROPS · LAD LEADOFF
PITCHER PROPS · HP
GAME MARKETS · LIVE
updating per event
MONEYLINE
NYM to win
TOTAL
Over 8.5
RUN LINE
NYM -1.5
TEAM TOTAL NYM
Over 4.5
FIRST 5 INN
NYM wins F5
event 1 / 15 · pitching
Every card on the board is a live read. As the game changes, the math changes with it — every prop, every market line, in real time. Cards turn green when they hit, red when they miss.
I · GAME-LEVEL MODEL
Win probability + total.
GAME WINNER
✓ CONFIRMEDLos Angeles D vs New York M Winner?
5,000-TRIAL SIMULATION
II · EVERY MARKET WE RAN
Swipe the whole board.
One card per hitter and pitcher, plus the game markets — the sim's own number on every line it priced, with the reasoning that produced it.
169 simulated lines · raw sim
1 / 21
Game Markets
LAD @ NYM · full-game reads
Moneyline
LAD to win
51%
1st 5 Innings
NYM F5
40%
Game Total
Over 8.5
40%
1st 5 Total
Over 4.5
40%
Run Line
NYM -1.5
33%
Team Total
LAD Over 4.5
39%
Team Total
NYM Over 4.5
35%
THE READ
LAD projects to outscore NYM by 0.31 runs across 5,000 trials.
- Projected runs: LAD 4.09, NYM 3.78
- Yoshinobu Yamamoto (LAD) vs Nolan McLean (NYM)
- Run on league-average lineups — refreshes when lineups post
Yoshinobu Yamamoto
LAD SP · vs. NYM
Strikeouts
5+ Ks
80%
Strikeouts
6+ Ks
65%
Strikeouts
7+ Ks
49%
Strikeouts
8+ Ks
33%
Strikeouts
9+ Ks
20%
Outs Recorded
15+ outs
98%
Outs Recorded
18+ outs
86%
Hits Allowed
5+ hits
71%
Hits Allowed
6+ hits
57%
THE READ
Strikeout-heavy projection — the sim has him at 6.5 Ks, with the ladder still live into the 8+ rung.
- Sim projects 6.5 strikeouts
- 80% to reach 5+ against NYM
Nolan McLean
NYM SP · vs. LAD
Strikeouts
5+ Ks
77%
Strikeouts
6+ Ks
61%
Strikeouts
7+ Ks
45%
Strikeouts
8+ Ks
28%
Strikeouts
9+ Ks
16%
Outs Recorded
15+ outs
85%
Outs Recorded
18+ outs
50%
Hits Allowed
5+ hits
55%
Hits Allowed
6+ hits
41%
THE READ
Strikeout-heavy projection — the sim has him at 6.3 Ks, with the ladder still live into the 8+ rung.
- Sim projects 6.3 strikeouts
- 77% to reach 5+ against LAD
Juan Soto
NYM · bats L · slot 2
Home Run
1+ HR
32%
Hits
1+ hits
73%
Hits
2+ hits
34%
Total Bases
2+ bases
55%
Total Bases
3+ bases
42%
Total Bases
4+ bases
36%
RBIs
1+ RBI
46%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
22%
THE READ
Stands out most on 1+ HR — 32% against 17% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 2 · bats L
- Facing Yoshinobu Yamamoto
Shohei Ohtani
LAD · bats L · slot 1
Home Run
1+ HR
27%
Hits
1+ hits
79%
Hits
2+ hits
42%
Total Bases
2+ bases
59%
Total Bases
3+ bases
43%
Total Bases
4+ bases
35%
RBIs
1+ RBI
45%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
22%
THE READ
Stands out most on 1+ HR — 27% against 17% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 1 · bats L
- Facing Nolan McLean
Freddie Freeman
LAD · bats L · slot 4
Home Run
1+ HR
20%
Hits
1+ hits
76%
Hits
2+ hits
38%
Total Bases
2+ bases
55%
Total Bases
3+ bases
37%
Total Bases
4+ bases
27%
RBIs
1+ RBI
45%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
21%
THE READ
Stands out most on 2+ RBIs — 21% against 15% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 4 · bats L
- Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
- Facing Nolan McLean
Andy Pages
LAD · bats R · slot 2
Home Run
1+ HR
21%
Hits
1+ hits
76%
Hits
2+ hits
39%
Total Bases
2+ bases
54%
Total Bases
3+ bases
37%
Total Bases
4+ bases
27%
RBIs
1+ RBI
40%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
17%
THE READ
Stands out most on 2+ hits — 39% against 30% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 2 · bats R
- Facing Nolan McLean
Tommy Edman
LAD · bats S · slot 3
Home Run
1+ HR
12%
Hits
1+ hits
76%
Hits
2+ hits
38%
Total Bases
2+ bases
50%
Total Bases
3+ bases
31%
Total Bases
4+ bases
20%
RBIs
1+ RBI
36%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
14%
THE READ
Stands out most on 2+ hits — 38% against 30% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 3 · bats S
- Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
- Facing Nolan McLean
Jared Young
NYM · bats L · slot 7
Home Run
1+ HR
20%
Hits
1+ hits
68%
Hits
2+ hits
26%
Total Bases
2+ bases
45%
Total Bases
3+ bases
30%
Total Bases
4+ bases
23%
RBIs
1+ RBI
36%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
16%
THE READ
Stands out most on 1+ HR — 20% against 17% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 7 · bats L
- Facing Yoshinobu Yamamoto
Francisco Alvarez
NYM · bats R · slot 9
Home Run
1+ HR
20%
Hits
1+ hits
65%
Hits
2+ hits
24%
Total Bases
2+ bases
43%
Total Bases
3+ bases
29%
Total Bases
4+ bases
23%
RBIs
1+ RBI
34%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
15%
THE READ
Stands out most on 1+ HR — 20% against 17% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 9 · bats R
- Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
- Facing Yoshinobu Yamamoto
Dalton Rushing
LAD · bats L · slot 9
Home Run
1+ HR
16%
Hits
1+ hits
70%
Hits
2+ hits
30%
Total Bases
2+ bases
47%
Total Bases
3+ bases
30%
Total Bases
4+ bases
22%
RBIs
1+ RBI
38%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
17%
THE READ
Stands out most on 2+ RBIs — 17% against 15% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 9 · bats L
- Cold on results, but hitting the ball well
- Facing Nolan McLean
Mookie Betts
LAD · bats R · slot 5
Home Run
1+ HR
16%
Hits
1+ hits
70%
Hits
2+ hits
30%
Total Bases
2+ bases
45%
Total Bases
3+ bases
29%
Total Bases
4+ bases
21%
RBIs
1+ RBI
38%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
16%
THE READ
Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 70%.
- Batting 5 · bats R
- Facing Nolan McLean
Miguel Rojas
LAD · bats R · slot 6
Home Run
1+ HR
11%
Hits
1+ hits
72%
Hits
2+ hits
31%
Total Bases
2+ bases
43%
Total Bases
3+ bases
26%
Total Bases
4+ bases
17%
RBIs
1+ RBI
34%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
13%
THE READ
Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 72%.
- Batting 6 · bats R
- Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
- Facing Nolan McLean
Kyle Tucker
LAD · bats L · slot 7
Home Run
1+ HR
13%
Hits
1+ hits
72%
Hits
2+ hits
31%
Total Bases
2+ bases
47%
Total Bases
3+ bases
29%
Total Bases
4+ bases
20%
RBIs
1+ RBI
36%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
14%
THE READ
Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 72%.
- Batting 7 · bats L
- Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
- Facing Nolan McLean
A.J. Ewing
NYM · bats L · slot 1
Home Run
1+ HR
16%
Hits
1+ hits
70%
Hits
2+ hits
31%
Total Bases
2+ bases
47%
Total Bases
3+ bases
29%
Total Bases
4+ bases
21%
RBIs
1+ RBI
31%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
11%
THE READ
Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 70%.
- Batting 1 · bats L
- Facing Yoshinobu Yamamoto
Francisco Lindor
NYM · bats S · slot 4
Home Run
1+ HR
17%
Hits
1+ hits
67%
Hits
2+ hits
26%
Total Bases
2+ bases
42%
Total Bases
3+ bases
27%
Total Bases
4+ bases
20%
RBIs
1+ RBI
35%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
15%
THE READ
Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 67%.
- Batting 4 · bats S
- Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
- Facing Yoshinobu Yamamoto
Teoscar Hernández
LAD · bats R · slot 8
Home Run
1+ HR
13%
Hits
1+ hits
69%
Hits
2+ hits
28%
Total Bases
2+ bases
43%
Total Bases
3+ bases
26%
Total Bases
4+ bases
18%
RBIs
1+ RBI
36%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
14%
THE READ
Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 69%.
- Batting 8 · bats R
- Facing Nolan McLean
Carson Benge
NYM · bats L · slot 5
Home Run
1+ HR
16%
Hits
1+ hits
67%
Hits
2+ hits
27%
Total Bases
2+ bases
44%
Total Bases
3+ bases
28%
Total Bases
4+ bases
20%
RBIs
1+ RBI
35%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
14%
THE READ
Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 67%.
- Batting 5 · bats L
- Facing Yoshinobu Yamamoto
Bo Bichette
NYM · bats R · slot 3
Home Run
1+ HR
11%
Hits
1+ hits
66%
Hits
2+ hits
25%
Total Bases
2+ bases
39%
Total Bases
3+ bases
22%
Total Bases
4+ bases
15%
RBIs
1+ RBI
30%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
11%
THE READ
Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 66% against 70%.
- Batting 3 · bats R
- Facing Yoshinobu Yamamoto
Luis Robert Jr.
NYM · slot 6
Home Run
1+ HR
11%
Hits
1+ hits
62%
Hits
2+ hits
22%
Total Bases
2+ bases
36%
Total Bases
3+ bases
21%
Total Bases
4+ bases
14%
RBIs
1+ RBI
29%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
11%
THE READ
Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 62% against 70%.
- Batting 6
- Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
- Facing Yoshinobu Yamamoto
Marcus Semien
NYM · slot 8
Home Run
1+ HR
13%
Hits
1+ hits
56%
Hits
2+ hits
17%
Total Bases
2+ bases
32%
Total Bases
3+ bases
20%
Total Bases
4+ bases
15%
RBIs
1+ RBI
27%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
10%
THE READ
Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 56% against 70%.
- Batting 8
- Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
- Facing Yoshinobu Yamamoto
III · METHODOLOGY
How this read was built.
- Simulation. 5,000 Monte Carlo trials of this game using real play-by-play data, confirmed lineups, pitcher quality, bullpen depth, defensive runs saved, catcher framing, umpire K-zones, and per-batter rates regressed with empirical Bayes.
- What the number means. The share of those 5,000 trials in which the outcome happened — the model's own estimate, not a claim that a sportsbook has mispriced it. We publish it next to the reasoning that produced it and let the settlement record below speak for itself.
- Settlement. Every read on this page is graded by Kalshi's own settlement market once the game ends. The post-game version of this page shows what was confirmed and what was missed.
DISCLOSURE
BetFly is not a sportsbook, prediction market, or wagering operator. The model reads above are sabermetric simulation output — not advice or a recommendation on whether or how to bet. See our Disclaimer for the full risk disclosure.