AI MODEL READ
SETTLEDLAA vs SF
Los Angeles Angels at San Francisco Giants
Friday, July 24, 2026
SIMULATION · ONE TRIAL, EVERY MARKET
Watch the model run this game.
One representative trial from the LAA @ SF simulation — real per-AB batter, outcome, and score progression from the spine. Every game-level market updates in lock-step with each play.
FIELD
PITCH SEQUENCE
LAA Leadoff (R) vs HP
OUTCOME DISTRIBUTION
LAA Leadoff in this spot
BATTER PROPS · LAA LEADOFF
PITCHER PROPS · HP
GAME MARKETS · LIVE
updating per event
MONEYLINE
SF to win
TOTAL
Over 8.5
RUN LINE
SF -1.5
TEAM TOTAL SF
Over 4.5
FIRST 5 INN
SF wins F5
event 1 / 17 · pitching
Every card on the board is a live read. As the game changes, the math changes with it — every prop, every market line, in real time. Cards turn green when they hit, red when they miss.
I · GAME-LEVEL MODEL
Win probability + total.
GAME WINNER
✗ MISSEDLos Angeles A vs San Francisco Winner?
5,000-TRIAL SIMULATION
II · EVERY MARKET WE RAN
Swipe the whole board.
One card per hitter and pitcher, plus the game markets — the sim's own number on every line it priced, with the reasoning that produced it.
169 simulated lines · raw sim
1 / 21
Game Markets
LAA @ SF · full-game reads
Moneyline
SF to win
52%
1st 5 Innings
SF F5
45%
Game Total
Over 8.5
61%
1st 5 Total
Over 4.5
61%
Run Line
SF -1.5
38%
Team Total
LAA Over 4.5
51%
Team Total
SF Over 4.5
53%
THE READ
The sim splits this one — 10.17 total runs with under a quarter-run between the sides.
- Projected runs: LAA 5.05, SF 5.12
- Ryan Johnson (LAA) vs Robbie Ray (SF)
- Run on league-average lineups — refreshes when lineups post
Ryan Johnson
LAA SP · vs. SF
Strikeouts
5+ Ks
40%
Strikeouts
6+ Ks
22%
Strikeouts
7+ Ks
10%
Strikeouts
8+ Ks
4%
Strikeouts
9+ Ks
1%
Outs Recorded
15+ outs
80%
Outs Recorded
18+ outs
22%
Hits Allowed
5+ hits
64%
Hits Allowed
6+ hits
49%
THE READ
Middle-of-the-road strikeout projection at 4.2 Ks.
- Sim projects 4.2 strikeouts
- 40% to reach 5+ against SF
Robbie Ray
SF SP · vs. LAA
Strikeouts
5+ Ks
65%
Strikeouts
6+ Ks
48%
Strikeouts
7+ Ks
32%
Strikeouts
8+ Ks
20%
Strikeouts
9+ Ks
10%
Outs Recorded
15+ outs
87%
Outs Recorded
18+ outs
70%
Hits Allowed
5+ hits
72%
Hits Allowed
6+ hits
60%
THE READ
Middle-of-the-road strikeout projection at 5.5 Ks.
- Sim projects 5.5 strikeouts
- 65% to reach 5+ against LAA
Bryce Eldridge
SF · bats L · slot 3
Home Run
1+ HR
26%
Hits
1+ hits
79%
Hits
2+ hits
40%
Total Bases
2+ bases
58%
Total Bases
3+ bases
42%
Total Bases
4+ bases
33%
RBIs
1+ RBI
49%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
25%
THE READ
Stands out most on 1+ HR — 26% against 14% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 3 · bats L
- Facing Ryan Johnson
Mike Trout
LAA · slot 2
Home Run
1+ HR
25%
Hits
1+ hits
77%
Hits
2+ hits
38%
Total Bases
2+ bases
56%
Total Bases
3+ bases
40%
Total Bases
4+ bases
31%
RBIs
1+ RBI
42%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
19%
THE READ
Stands out most on 1+ HR — 25% against 14% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 2
- Facing Robbie Ray
Casey Schmitt
SF · bats R · slot 5
Home Run
1+ HR
23%
Hits
1+ hits
75%
Hits
2+ hits
36%
Total Bases
2+ bases
53%
Total Bases
3+ bases
36%
Total Bases
4+ bases
27%
RBIs
1+ RBI
45%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
21%
THE READ
Stands out most on 1+ HR — 23% against 14% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 5 · bats R
- Cold on results, but hitting the ball well
- Facing Ryan Johnson
Heliot Ramos
SF · bats R · slot 2
Home Run
1+ HR
22%
Hits
1+ hits
80%
Hits
2+ hits
42%
Total Bases
2+ bases
58%
Total Bases
3+ bases
41%
Total Bases
4+ bases
31%
RBIs
1+ RBI
45%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
22%
THE READ
Stands out most on 1+ HR — 22% against 14% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 2 · bats R
- Facing Ryan Johnson
Rafael Devers
SF · bats L · slot 4
Home Run
1+ HR
22%
Hits
1+ hits
73%
Hits
2+ hits
34%
Total Bases
2+ bases
51%
Total Bases
3+ bases
35%
Total Bases
4+ bases
27%
RBIs
1+ RBI
45%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
22%
THE READ
Stands out most on 1+ HR — 22% against 14% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 4 · bats L
- Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
- Facing Ryan Johnson
Willy Adames
SF · bats R · slot 7
Home Run
1+ HR
20%
Hits
1+ hits
70%
Hits
2+ hits
29%
Total Bases
2+ bases
46%
Total Bases
3+ bases
31%
Total Bases
4+ bases
24%
RBIs
1+ RBI
39%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
18%
THE READ
Stands out most on 1+ HR — 20% against 14% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 7 · bats R
- Facing Ryan Johnson
Zach Neto
LAA · bats R · slot 1
Home Run
1+ HR
19%
Hits
1+ hits
76%
Hits
2+ hits
39%
Total Bases
2+ bases
54%
Total Bases
3+ bases
37%
Total Bases
4+ bases
27%
RBIs
1+ RBI
37%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
15%
THE READ
Stands out most on 4+ bases — 27% against 21% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 1 · bats R
- Facing Robbie Ray
Luis Arraez
SF · bats L · slot 1
Home Run
1+ HR
8%
Hits
1+ hits
79%
Hits
2+ hits
43%
Total Bases
2+ bases
54%
Total Bases
3+ bases
32%
Total Bases
4+ bases
19%
RBIs
1+ RBI
34%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
12%
THE READ
Stands out most on 2+ hits — 43% against 33% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 1 · bats L
- Facing Ryan Johnson
Wade Meckler
LAA · bats L · slot 6
Home Run
1+ HR
11%
Hits
1+ hits
77%
Hits
2+ hits
38%
Total Bases
2+ bases
52%
Total Bases
3+ bases
31%
Total Bases
4+ bases
20%
RBIs
1+ RBI
37%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
15%
THE READ
Stands out most on 2+ hits — 38% against 33% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 6 · bats L
- Hot streak, thin underlying support
- Facing Robbie Ray
Jung Hoo Lee
SF · bats L · slot 6
Home Run
1+ HR
8%
Hits
1+ hits
75%
Hits
2+ hits
36%
Total Bases
2+ bases
47%
Total Bases
3+ bases
27%
Total Bases
4+ bases
16%
RBIs
1+ RBI
34%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
13%
THE READ
Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 75%.
- Batting 6 · bats L
- Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
- Facing Ryan Johnson
Jorge Soler
LAA · bats R · slot 4
Home Run
1+ HR
15%
Hits
1+ hits
70%
Hits
2+ hits
31%
Total Bases
2+ bases
46%
Total Bases
3+ bases
29%
Total Bases
4+ bases
20%
RBIs
1+ RBI
37%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
16%
THE READ
Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 70%.
- Batting 4 · bats R
- Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
- Facing Robbie Ray
Nolan Schanuel
LAA · bats L · slot 3
Home Run
1+ HR
7%
Hits
1+ hits
73%
Hits
2+ hits
35%
Total Bases
2+ bases
44%
Total Bases
3+ bases
25%
Total Bases
4+ bases
14%
RBIs
1+ RBI
31%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
11%
THE READ
Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 73%.
- Batting 3 · bats L
- Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
- Facing Robbie Ray
Vaughn Grissom
LAA · bats R · slot 5
Home Run
1+ HR
12%
Hits
1+ hits
70%
Hits
2+ hits
30%
Total Bases
2+ bases
44%
Total Bases
3+ bases
26%
Total Bases
4+ bases
17%
RBIs
1+ RBI
36%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
14%
THE READ
Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 70%.
- Batting 5 · bats R
- Facing Robbie Ray
Denzer Guzman
LAA · bats R · slot 8
Home Run
1+ HR
10%
Hits
1+ hits
70%
Hits
2+ hits
30%
Total Bases
2+ bases
42%
Total Bases
3+ bases
24%
Total Bases
4+ bases
15%
RBIs
1+ RBI
32%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
12%
THE READ
Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 70%.
- Batting 8 · bats R
- Facing Robbie Ray
Jo Adell
LAA · bats R · slot 7
Home Run
1+ HR
10%
Hits
1+ hits
67%
Hits
2+ hits
28%
Total Bases
2+ bases
41%
Total Bases
3+ bases
23%
Total Bases
4+ bases
15%
RBIs
1+ RBI
32%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
12%
THE READ
Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 67% against 73%.
- Batting 7 · bats R
- Facing Robbie Ray
Daniel Susac
SF · slot 9
Home Run
1+ HR
7%
Hits
1+ hits
67%
Hits
2+ hits
25%
Total Bases
2+ bases
37%
Total Bases
3+ bases
20%
Total Bases
4+ bases
12%
RBIs
1+ RBI
29%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
10%
THE READ
Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 67% against 73%.
- Batting 9
- Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
- Facing Ryan Johnson
Drew Gilbert
SF · bats L · slot 8
Home Run
1+ HR
9%
Hits
1+ hits
66%
Hits
2+ hits
25%
Total Bases
2+ bases
38%
Total Bases
3+ bases
21%
Total Bases
4+ bases
13%
RBIs
1+ RBI
30%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
11%
THE READ
Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 66% against 73%.
- Batting 8 · bats L
- Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
- Facing Ryan Johnson
Tyler Heineman
LAA · bats S · slot 9
Home Run
1+ HR
7%
Hits
1+ hits
63%
Hits
2+ hits
22%
Total Bases
2+ bases
33%
Total Bases
3+ bases
16%
Total Bases
4+ bases
10%
RBIs
1+ RBI
26%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
8%
THE READ
Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 63% against 73%.
- Batting 9 · bats S
- Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
- Facing Robbie Ray
III · METHODOLOGY
How this read was built.
- Simulation. 5,000 Monte Carlo trials of this game using real play-by-play data, confirmed lineups, pitcher quality, bullpen depth, defensive runs saved, catcher framing, umpire K-zones, and per-batter rates regressed with empirical Bayes.
- What the number means. The share of those 5,000 trials in which the outcome happened — the model's own estimate, not a claim that a sportsbook has mispriced it. We publish it next to the reasoning that produced it and let the settlement record below speak for itself.
- Settlement. Every read on this page is graded by Kalshi's own settlement market once the game ends. The post-game version of this page shows what was confirmed and what was missed.
DISCLOSURE
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