AI MODEL READ
SETTLEDCOL vs MIL
Colorado Rockies at Milwaukee Brewers
Friday, July 24, 2026
SIMULATION · ONE TRIAL, EVERY MARKET
Watch the model run this game.
One representative trial from the COL @ MIL simulation — real per-AB batter, outcome, and score progression from the spine. Every game-level market updates in lock-step with each play.
FIELD
PITCH SEQUENCE
COL Leadoff (R) vs HP
OUTCOME DISTRIBUTION
COL Leadoff in this spot
BATTER PROPS · COL LEADOFF
PITCHER PROPS · HP
GAME MARKETS · LIVE
updating per event
MONEYLINE
MIL to win
TOTAL
Over 8.5
RUN LINE
MIL -1.5
TEAM TOTAL MIL
Over 4.5
FIRST 5 INN
MIL wins F5
event 1 / 12 · pitching
Every card on the board is a live read. As the game changes, the math changes with it — every prop, every market line, in real time. Cards turn green when they hit, red when they miss.
I · GAME-LEVEL MODEL
Win probability + total.
GAME WINNER
✓ CONFIRMEDColorado vs Milwaukee Winner?
5,000-TRIAL SIMULATION
sim-led read — sharp books close, not identical
II · EVERY MARKET WE RAN
Swipe the whole board.
One card per hitter and pitcher, plus the game markets — the sim's own number on every line it priced, with the reasoning that produced it.
169 simulated lines · raw sim
1 / 21
Game Markets
COL @ MIL · full-game reads
Moneyline
MIL to win
67%
1st 5 Innings
MIL F5
55%
Game Total
Over 8.5
64%
1st 5 Total
Over 4.5
65%
Run Line
MIL -1.5
53%
Team Total
COL Over 4.5
43%
Team Total
MIL Over 4.5
64%
THE READ
MIL projects to outscore COL by 1.73 runs across 5,000 trials.
- Projected runs: COL 4.37, MIL 6.11
- Ryan Feltner (COL) vs Robert Gasser (MIL)
- Run on league-average lineups — refreshes when lineups post
Ryan Feltner
COL SP · vs. MIL
Strikeouts
5+ Ks
40%
Strikeouts
6+ Ks
23%
Strikeouts
7+ Ks
11%
Strikeouts
8+ Ks
5%
Strikeouts
9+ Ks
1%
Outs Recorded
15+ outs
80%
Outs Recorded
18+ outs
30%
Hits Allowed
5+ hits
72%
Hits Allowed
6+ hits
59%
THE READ
Middle-of-the-road strikeout projection at 4.2 Ks.
- Sim projects 4.2 strikeouts
- 40% to reach 5+ against MIL
Robert Gasser
MIL SP · vs. COL
Strikeouts
5+ Ks
44%
Strikeouts
6+ Ks
28%
Strikeouts
7+ Ks
15%
Strikeouts
8+ Ks
8%
Strikeouts
9+ Ks
3%
Outs Recorded
15+ outs
70%
Outs Recorded
18+ outs
43%
Hits Allowed
5+ hits
61%
Hits Allowed
6+ hits
48%
THE READ
Middle-of-the-road strikeout projection at 4.4 Ks.
- Sim projects 4.4 strikeouts
- 44% to reach 5+ against COL
Jake Bauers
MIL · bats L · slot 7
Home Run
1+ HR
29%
Hits
1+ hits
79%
Hits
2+ hits
41%
Total Bases
2+ bases
59%
Total Bases
3+ bases
44%
Total Bases
4+ bases
36%
RBIs
1+ RBI
52%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
27%
THE READ
Stands out most on 1+ HR — 29% against 15% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 7 · bats L
- Facing Ryan Feltner
Jackson Chourio
MIL · bats R · slot 2
Home Run
1+ HR
23%
Hits
1+ hits
82%
Hits
2+ hits
45%
Total Bases
2+ bases
60%
Total Bases
3+ bases
42%
Total Bases
4+ bases
31%
RBIs
1+ RBI
46%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
22%
THE READ
Stands out most on 1+ HR — 23% against 15% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 2 · bats R
- Facing Ryan Feltner
Brice Turang
MIL · bats L · slot 3
Home Run
1+ HR
22%
Hits
1+ hits
81%
Hits
2+ hits
44%
Total Bases
2+ bases
59%
Total Bases
3+ bases
41%
Total Bases
4+ bases
30%
RBIs
1+ RBI
48%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
23%
THE READ
Stands out most on 2+ RBIs — 23% against 15% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 3 · bats L
- Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
- Facing Ryan Feltner
Hunter Goodman
COL · bats R · slot 4
Home Run
1+ HR
22%
Hits
1+ hits
71%
Hits
2+ hits
31%
Total Bases
2+ bases
49%
Total Bases
3+ bases
34%
Total Bases
4+ bases
27%
RBIs
1+ RBI
39%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
18%
THE READ
Stands out most on 1+ HR — 22% against 15% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 4 · bats R
- Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
- Facing Robert Gasser
Garrett Mitchell
MIL · bats L · slot 5
Home Run
1+ HR
17%
Hits
1+ hits
80%
Hits
2+ hits
41%
Total Bases
2+ bases
56%
Total Bases
3+ bases
37%
Total Bases
4+ bases
26%
RBIs
1+ RBI
46%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
22%
THE READ
Stands out most on 2+ RBIs — 22% against 15% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 5 · bats L
- Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
- Facing Ryan Feltner
Christian Yelich
MIL · bats L · slot 1
Home Run
1+ HR
19%
Hits
1+ hits
81%
Hits
2+ hits
45%
Total Bases
2+ bases
60%
Total Bases
3+ bases
40%
Total Bases
4+ bases
29%
RBIs
1+ RBI
42%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
19%
THE READ
Stands out most on 4+ bases — 29% against 21% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 1 · bats L
- Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
- Facing Ryan Feltner
Luis Lara
MIL · slot 6
Home Run
1+ HR
18%
Hits
1+ hits
77%
Hits
2+ hits
37%
Total Bases
2+ bases
53%
Total Bases
3+ bases
35%
Total Bases
4+ bases
25%
RBIs
1+ RBI
44%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
21%
THE READ
Stands out most on 2+ RBIs — 21% against 15% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 6
- Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
- Facing Ryan Feltner
Mickey Moniak
COL · bats L · slot 7
Home Run
1+ HR
20%
Hits
1+ hits
66%
Hits
2+ hits
25%
Total Bases
2+ bases
44%
Total Bases
3+ bases
30%
Total Bases
4+ bases
24%
RBIs
1+ RBI
34%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
15%
THE READ
Stands out most on 1+ HR — 20% against 15% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 7 · bats L
- Facing Robert Gasser
William Contreras
MIL · bats R · slot 4
Home Run
1+ HR
16%
Hits
1+ hits
78%
Hits
2+ hits
42%
Total Bases
2+ bases
55%
Total Bases
3+ bases
36%
Total Bases
4+ bases
24%
RBIs
1+ RBI
45%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
20%
THE READ
Stands out most on 2+ RBIs — 20% against 15% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 4 · bats R
- Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
- Facing Ryan Feltner
Jake McCarthy
COL · bats L · slot 1
Home Run
1+ HR
11%
Hits
1+ hits
73%
Hits
2+ hits
34%
Total Bases
2+ bases
46%
Total Bases
3+ bases
26%
Total Bases
4+ bases
17%
RBIs
1+ RBI
26%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
8%
THE READ
Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 73%.
- Batting 1 · bats L
- Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
- Facing Robert Gasser
Joey Ortiz
MIL · bats R · slot 8
Home Run
1+ HR
9%
Hits
1+ hits
71%
Hits
2+ hits
30%
Total Bases
2+ bases
40%
Total Bases
3+ bases
23%
Total Bases
4+ bases
14%
RBIs
1+ RBI
34%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
12%
THE READ
Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 71%.
- Batting 8 · bats R
- Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
- Facing Ryan Feltner
David Hamilton
MIL · bats L · slot 9
Home Run
1+ HR
7%
Hits
1+ hits
70%
Hits
2+ hits
29%
Total Bases
2+ bases
40%
Total Bases
3+ bases
22%
Total Bases
4+ bases
12%
RBIs
1+ RBI
32%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
11%
THE READ
Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 70%.
- Batting 9 · bats L
- Facing Ryan Feltner
Kyle Karros
COL · bats R · slot 2
Home Run
1+ HR
10%
Hits
1+ hits
69%
Hits
2+ hits
31%
Total Bases
2+ bases
44%
Total Bases
3+ bases
25%
Total Bases
4+ bases
15%
RBIs
1+ RBI
27%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
9%
THE READ
Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 69%.
- Batting 2 · bats R
- Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
- Facing Robert Gasser
Cole Carrigg
COL · bats S · slot 3
Home Run
1+ HR
12%
Hits
1+ hits
69%
Hits
2+ hits
29%
Total Bases
2+ bases
43%
Total Bases
3+ bases
25%
Total Bases
4+ bases
17%
RBIs
1+ RBI
30%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
11%
THE READ
Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 69%.
- Batting 3 · bats S
- Facing Robert Gasser
Willi Castro
COL · bats S · slot 5
Home Run
1+ HR
11%
Hits
1+ hits
66%
Hits
2+ hits
27%
Total Bases
2+ bases
41%
Total Bases
3+ bases
23%
Total Bases
4+ bases
15%
RBIs
1+ RBI
30%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
11%
THE READ
Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 66% against 72%.
- Batting 5 · bats S
- Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
- Facing Robert Gasser
Troy Johnston
COL · bats L · slot 6
Home Run
1+ HR
7%
Hits
1+ hits
60%
Hits
2+ hits
22%
Total Bases
2+ bases
34%
Total Bases
3+ bases
18%
Total Bases
4+ bases
11%
RBIs
1+ RBI
25%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
9%
THE READ
Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 60% against 72%.
- Batting 6 · bats L
- Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
- Facing Robert Gasser
Tyler Freeman
COL · bats R · slot 8
Home Run
1+ HR
8%
Hits
1+ hits
60%
Hits
2+ hits
19%
Total Bases
2+ bases
32%
Total Bases
3+ bases
16%
Total Bases
4+ bases
10%
RBIs
1+ RBI
23%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
7%
THE READ
Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 60% against 72%.
- Batting 8 · bats R
- Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
- Facing Robert Gasser
Ezequiel Tovar
COL · bats R · slot 9
Home Run
1+ HR
9%
Hits
1+ hits
59%
Hits
2+ hits
19%
Total Bases
2+ bases
34%
Total Bases
3+ bases
18%
Total Bases
4+ bases
12%
RBIs
1+ RBI
23%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
8%
THE READ
Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 59% against 72%.
- Batting 9 · bats R
- Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
- Facing Robert Gasser
III · METHODOLOGY
How this read was built.
- Simulation. 5,000 Monte Carlo trials of this game using real play-by-play data, confirmed lineups, pitcher quality, bullpen depth, defensive runs saved, catcher framing, umpire K-zones, and per-batter rates regressed with empirical Bayes.
- What the number means. The share of those 5,000 trials in which the outcome happened — the model's own estimate, not a claim that a sportsbook has mispriced it. We publish it next to the reasoning that produced it and let the settlement record below speak for itself.
- Settlement. Every read on this page is graded by Kalshi's own settlement market once the game ends. The post-game version of this page shows what was confirmed and what was missed.
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