AI MODEL READ
SETTLEDCLE vs TB
Cleveland Guardians at Tampa Bay Rays
Friday, July 24, 2026
SIMULATION · ONE TRIAL, EVERY MARKET
Watch the model run this game.
One representative trial from the CLE @ TB simulation — real per-AB batter, outcome, and score progression from the spine. Every game-level market updates in lock-step with each play.
FIELD
PITCH SEQUENCE
CLE Leadoff (R) vs HP
OUTCOME DISTRIBUTION
CLE Leadoff in this spot
BATTER PROPS · CLE LEADOFF
PITCHER PROPS · HP
GAME MARKETS · LIVE
updating per event
MONEYLINE
TB to win
TOTAL
Over 8.5
RUN LINE
TB -1.5
TEAM TOTAL TB
Over 4.5
FIRST 5 INN
TB wins F5
event 1 / 20 · pitching
Every card on the board is a live read. As the game changes, the math changes with it — every prop, every market line, in real time. Cards turn green when they hit, red when they miss.
I · GAME-LEVEL MODEL
Win probability + total.
GAME WINNER
✗ MISSEDCleveland vs Tampa Bay Winner?
5,000-TRIAL SIMULATION
II · EVERY MARKET WE RAN
Swipe the whole board.
One card per hitter and pitcher, plus the game markets — the sim's own number on every line it priced, with the reasoning that produced it.
169 simulated lines · raw sim
1 / 21
Game Markets
CLE @ TB · full-game reads
Moneyline
CLE to win
50%
1st 5 Innings
TB F5
41%
Game Total
Over 8.5
48%
1st 5 Total
Over 4.5
54%
Run Line
TB -1.5
35%
Team Total
CLE Over 4.5
44%
Team Total
TB Over 4.5
42%
THE READ
The sim splits this one — 8.70 total runs with under a quarter-run between the sides.
- Projected runs: CLE 4.43, TB 4.27
- Tanner Bibee (CLE) vs Nick Martinez (TB)
- Run on league-average lineups — refreshes when lineups post
Tanner Bibee
CLE SP · vs. TB
Strikeouts
5+ Ks
47%
Strikeouts
6+ Ks
29%
Strikeouts
7+ Ks
15%
Strikeouts
8+ Ks
7%
Strikeouts
9+ Ks
3%
Outs Recorded
15+ outs
89%
Outs Recorded
18+ outs
61%
Hits Allowed
5+ hits
68%
Hits Allowed
6+ hits
55%
THE READ
Middle-of-the-road strikeout projection at 4.5 Ks.
- Sim projects 4.5 strikeouts
- 47% to reach 5+ against TB
Nick Martinez
TB SP · vs. CLE
Strikeouts
5+ Ks
7%
Strikeouts
6+ Ks
2%
Strikeouts
7+ Ks
1%
Strikeouts
8+ Ks
0%
Strikeouts
9+ Ks
0%
Outs Recorded
15+ outs
87%
Outs Recorded
18+ outs
20%
Hits Allowed
5+ hits
64%
Hits Allowed
6+ hits
50%
THE READ
Low-strikeout projection at 2.4 Ks — the ladder thins out fast above the first rung.
- Sim projects 2.4 strikeouts
- 7% to reach 5+ against CLE
Junior Caminero
TB · bats R · slot 3
Home Run
1+ HR
25%
Hits
1+ hits
72%
Hits
2+ hits
31%
Total Bases
2+ bases
51%
Total Bases
3+ bases
37%
Total Bases
4+ bases
30%
RBIs
1+ RBI
42%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
20%
THE READ
Stands out most on 1+ HR — 25% against 12% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 3 · bats R
- Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
- Facing Tanner Bibee
Gabriel Arias
CLE · bats R · slot 7
Home Run
1+ HR
16%
Hits
1+ hits
65%
Hits
2+ hits
24%
Total Bases
2+ bases
41%
Total Bases
3+ bases
27%
Total Bases
4+ bases
20%
RBIs
1+ RBI
32%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
13%
THE READ
Stands out most on 1+ HR — 16% against 12% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 7 · bats R
- Facing Nick Martinez
Rhys Hoskins
CLE · bats R · slot 3
Home Run
1+ HR
16%
Hits
1+ hits
61%
Hits
2+ hits
22%
Total Bases
2+ bases
39%
Total Bases
3+ bases
25%
Total Bases
4+ bases
19%
RBIs
1+ RBI
31%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
13%
THE READ
Stands out most on 1+ HR — 16% against 12% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 3 · bats R
- Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
- Facing Nick Martinez
Chase DeLauter
CLE · bats L · slot 2
Home Run
1+ HR
12%
Hits
1+ hits
71%
Hits
2+ hits
31%
Total Bases
2+ bases
46%
Total Bases
3+ bases
28%
Total Bases
4+ bases
18%
RBIs
1+ RBI
29%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
10%
THE READ
Stands out most on 2+ hits — 31% against 22% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 2 · bats L
- Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
- Facing Nick Martinez
Ryan Vilade
TB · bats R · slot 7
Home Run
1+ HR
15%
Hits
1+ hits
62%
Hits
2+ hits
22%
Total Bases
2+ bases
39%
Total Bases
3+ bases
24%
Total Bases
4+ bases
18%
RBIs
1+ RBI
31%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
12%
THE READ
Stands out most on 1+ HR — 15% against 12% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 7 · bats R
- Facing Tanner Bibee
Yandy Díaz
TB · bats R · slot 1
Home Run
1+ HR
15%
Hits
1+ hits
68%
Hits
2+ hits
28%
Total Bases
2+ bases
43%
Total Bases
3+ bases
27%
Total Bases
4+ bases
19%
RBIs
1+ RBI
30%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
11%
THE READ
Stands out most on 4+ bases — 19% against 15% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 1 · bats R
- Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
- Facing Tanner Bibee
David Fry
CLE · bats R · slot 5
Home Run
1+ HR
15%
Hits
1+ hits
60%
Hits
2+ hits
20%
Total Bases
2+ bases
36%
Total Bases
3+ bases
23%
Total Bases
4+ bases
17%
RBIs
1+ RBI
30%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
12%
THE READ
Stands out most on 1+ HR — 15% against 12% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 5 · bats R
- Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
- Facing Nick Martinez
Angel Martínez
CLE · slot 1
Home Run
1+ HR
13%
Hits
1+ hits
65%
Hits
2+ hits
26%
Total Bases
2+ bases
39%
Total Bases
3+ bases
23%
Total Bases
4+ bases
17%
RBIs
1+ RBI
27%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
10%
THE READ
Stands out most on 2+ hits — 26% against 22% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 1
- Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
- Facing Nick Martinez
Jonathan Aranda
TB · bats L · slot 2
Home Run
1+ HR
12%
Hits
1+ hits
65%
Hits
2+ hits
25%
Total Bases
2+ bases
41%
Total Bases
3+ bases
23%
Total Bases
4+ bases
16%
RBIs
1+ RBI
27%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
10%
THE READ
Stands out most on 2+ hits — 25% against 22% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 2 · bats L
- Facing Tanner Bibee
Brayan Rocchio
CLE · bats S · slot 4
Home Run
1+ HR
10%
Hits
1+ hits
63%
Hits
2+ hits
24%
Total Bases
2+ bases
36%
Total Bases
3+ bases
20%
Total Bases
4+ bases
13%
RBIs
1+ RBI
27%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
9%
THE READ
Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 63%.
- Batting 4 · bats S
- Facing Nick Martinez
Chandler Simpson
TB · bats L · slot 6
Home Run
1+ HR
5%
Hits
1+ hits
61%
Hits
2+ hits
21%
Total Bases
2+ bases
32%
Total Bases
3+ bases
15%
Total Bases
4+ bases
8%
RBIs
1+ RBI
23%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
7%
THE READ
Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 61%.
- Batting 6 · bats L
- Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
- Facing Tanner Bibee
Austin Hedges
CLE · bats R · slot 8
Home Run
1+ HR
8%
Hits
1+ hits
60%
Hits
2+ hits
21%
Total Bases
2+ bases
32%
Total Bases
3+ bases
17%
Total Bases
4+ bases
11%
RBIs
1+ RBI
24%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
8%
THE READ
Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 60%.
- Batting 8 · bats R
- Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
- Facing Nick Martinez
Petey Halpin
CLE · slot 9
Home Run
1+ HR
10%
Hits
1+ hits
58%
Hits
2+ hits
20%
Total Bases
2+ bases
35%
Total Bases
3+ bases
19%
Total Bases
4+ bases
13%
RBIs
1+ RBI
26%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
10%
THE READ
Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 58%.
- Batting 9
- Facing Nick Martinez
Jonny DeLuca
TB · bats R · slot 5
Home Run
1+ HR
8%
Hits
1+ hits
59%
Hits
2+ hits
18%
Total Bases
2+ bases
30%
Total Bases
3+ bases
15%
Total Bases
4+ bases
10%
RBIs
1+ RBI
26%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
9%
THE READ
Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 59% against 62%.
- Batting 5 · bats R
- Facing Tanner Bibee
Travis Bazzana
CLE · bats L · slot 6
Home Run
1+ HR
9%
Hits
1+ hits
59%
Hits
2+ hits
19%
Total Bases
2+ bases
33%
Total Bases
3+ bases
18%
Total Bases
4+ bases
12%
RBIs
1+ RBI
26%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
9%
THE READ
Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 59% against 62%.
- Batting 6 · bats L
- Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
- Facing Nick Martinez
Cedric Mullins
TB · bats L · slot 4
Home Run
1+ HR
7%
Hits
1+ hits
57%
Hits
2+ hits
18%
Total Bases
2+ bases
30%
Total Bases
3+ bases
15%
Total Bases
4+ bases
10%
RBIs
1+ RBI
26%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
9%
THE READ
Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ RBI at 26% against 28%.
- Batting 4 · bats L
- Facing Tanner Bibee
Nick Fortes
TB · bats R · slot 9
Home Run
1+ HR
7%
Hits
1+ hits
58%
Hits
2+ hits
18%
Total Bases
2+ bases
30%
Total Bases
3+ bases
15%
Total Bases
4+ bases
9%
RBIs
1+ RBI
22%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
7%
THE READ
Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 58% against 62%.
- Batting 9 · bats R
- Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
- Facing Tanner Bibee
Ben Williamson
TB · bats R · slot 8
Home Run
1+ HR
5%
Hits
1+ hits
53%
Hits
2+ hits
15%
Total Bases
2+ bases
25%
Total Bases
3+ bases
12%
Total Bases
4+ bases
7%
RBIs
1+ RBI
20%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
6%
THE READ
Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 53% against 62%.
- Batting 8 · bats R
- Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
- Facing Tanner Bibee
III · METHODOLOGY
How this read was built.
- Simulation. 5,000 Monte Carlo trials of this game using real play-by-play data, confirmed lineups, pitcher quality, bullpen depth, defensive runs saved, catcher framing, umpire K-zones, and per-batter rates regressed with empirical Bayes.
- What the number means. The share of those 5,000 trials in which the outcome happened — the model's own estimate, not a claim that a sportsbook has mispriced it. We publish it next to the reasoning that produced it and let the settlement record below speak for itself.
- Settlement. Every read on this page is graded by Kalshi's own settlement market once the game ends. The post-game version of this page shows what was confirmed and what was missed.
DISCLOSURE
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