AI MODEL READ
SETTLEDCIN vs STL
Cincinnati Reds at St. Louis Cardinals
Friday, July 24, 2026
SIMULATION · ONE TRIAL, EVERY MARKET
Watch the model run this game.
One representative trial from the CIN @ STL simulation — real per-AB batter, outcome, and score progression from the spine. Every game-level market updates in lock-step with each play.
FIELD
PITCH SEQUENCE
CIN Leadoff (R) vs HP
OUTCOME DISTRIBUTION
CIN Leadoff in this spot
BATTER PROPS · CIN LEADOFF
PITCHER PROPS · HP
GAME MARKETS · LIVE
updating per event
MONEYLINE
STL to win
TOTAL
Over 8.5
RUN LINE
STL -1.5
TEAM TOTAL STL
Over 4.5
FIRST 5 INN
STL wins F5
event 1 / 17 · pitching
Every card on the board is a live read. As the game changes, the math changes with it — every prop, every market line, in real time. Cards turn green when they hit, red when they miss.
I · GAME-LEVEL MODEL
Win probability + total.
GAME WINNER
✓ CONFIRMEDCincinnati vs St. Louis Winner?
5,000-TRIAL SIMULATION
II · EVERY MARKET WE RAN
Swipe the whole board.
One card per hitter and pitcher, plus the game markets — the sim's own number on every line it priced, with the reasoning that produced it.
169 simulated lines · raw sim
1 / 21
Game Markets
CIN @ STL · full-game reads
Moneyline
CIN to win
54%
1st 5 Innings
STL F5
37%
Game Total
Over 8.5
53%
1st 5 Total
Over 4.5
52%
Run Line
STL -1.5
32%
Team Total
CIN Over 4.5
50%
Team Total
STL Over 4.5
42%
THE READ
CIN projects to outscore STL by 0.66 runs across 5,000 trials.
- Projected runs: CIN 4.98, STL 4.32
- Hunter Greene (CIN) vs Andre Pallante (STL)
- Run on league-average lineups — refreshes when lineups post
Hunter Greene
CIN SP · vs. STL
Strikeouts
5+ Ks
81%
Strikeouts
6+ Ks
68%
Strikeouts
7+ Ks
52%
Strikeouts
8+ Ks
38%
Strikeouts
9+ Ks
26%
Outs Recorded
15+ outs
76%
Outs Recorded
18+ outs
52%
Hits Allowed
5+ hits
57%
Hits Allowed
6+ hits
44%
THE READ
Strikeout-heavy projection — the sim has him at 6.9 Ks, with the ladder still live into the 8+ rung.
- Sim projects 6.9 strikeouts
- 81% to reach 5+ against STL
Andre Pallante
STL SP · vs. CIN
Strikeouts
5+ Ks
22%
Strikeouts
6+ Ks
9%
Strikeouts
7+ Ks
3%
Strikeouts
8+ Ks
1%
Strikeouts
9+ Ks
0%
Outs Recorded
15+ outs
92%
Outs Recorded
18+ outs
38%
Hits Allowed
5+ hits
69%
Hits Allowed
6+ hits
55%
THE READ
Low-strikeout projection at 3.2 Ks — the ladder thins out fast above the first rung.
- Sim projects 3.2 strikeouts
- 22% to reach 5+ against CIN
Jordan Walker
STL · bats R · slot 2
Home Run
1+ HR
29%
Hits
1+ hits
81%
Hits
2+ hits
44%
Total Bases
2+ bases
62%
Total Bases
3+ bases
45%
Total Bases
4+ bases
36%
RBIs
1+ RBI
47%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
22%
THE READ
Stands out most on 1+ HR — 29% against 18% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 2 · bats R
- Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
- Facing Hunter Greene
JJ Bleday
CIN · bats L · slot 3
Home Run
1+ HR
25%
Hits
1+ hits
75%
Hits
2+ hits
36%
Total Bases
2+ bases
55%
Total Bases
3+ bases
40%
Total Bases
4+ bases
31%
RBIs
1+ RBI
45%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
21%
THE READ
Stands out most on 1+ HR — 25% against 18% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 3 · bats L
- Cold on results, but hitting the ball well
- Facing Andre Pallante
Elly De La Cruz
CIN · bats S · slot 1
Home Run
1+ HR
23%
Hits
1+ hits
78%
Hits
2+ hits
42%
Total Bases
2+ bases
58%
Total Bases
3+ bases
40%
Total Bases
4+ bases
31%
RBIs
1+ RBI
41%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
19%
THE READ
Stands out most on 4+ bases — 31% against 23% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 1 · bats S
- Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
- Facing Andre Pallante
Alec Burleson
STL · bats L · slot 3
Home Run
1+ HR
23%
Hits
1+ hits
79%
Hits
2+ hits
42%
Total Bases
2+ bases
57%
Total Bases
3+ bases
40%
Total Bases
4+ bases
31%
RBIs
1+ RBI
45%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
22%
THE READ
Stands out most on 4+ bases — 31% against 23% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 3 · bats L
- Cold on results, but hitting the ball well
- Facing Hunter Greene
Sal Stewart
CIN · bats R · slot 2
Home Run
1+ HR
22%
Hits
1+ hits
74%
Hits
2+ hits
34%
Total Bases
2+ bases
51%
Total Bases
3+ bases
35%
Total Bases
4+ bases
27%
RBIs
1+ RBI
39%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
18%
THE READ
Stands out most on 1+ HR — 22% against 18% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 2 · bats R
- Facing Andre Pallante
Nathaniel Lowe
CIN · bats L · slot 5
Home Run
1+ HR
21%
Hits
1+ hits
71%
Hits
2+ hits
33%
Total Bases
2+ bases
49%
Total Bases
3+ bases
33%
Total Bases
4+ bases
25%
RBIs
1+ RBI
40%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
18%
THE READ
Stands out most on 1+ HR — 21% against 18% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 5 · bats L
- Facing Andre Pallante
Eugenio Suárez
CIN · bats R · slot 4
Home Run
1+ HR
20%
Hits
1+ hits
71%
Hits
2+ hits
31%
Total Bases
2+ bases
48%
Total Bases
3+ bases
33%
Total Bases
4+ bases
25%
RBIs
1+ RBI
40%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
19%
THE READ
Stands out most on 1+ HR — 20% against 18% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 4 · bats R
- Hot streak, thin underlying support
- Facing Andre Pallante
JJ Wetherholt
STL · bats L · slot 1
Home Run
1+ HR
20%
Hits
1+ hits
75%
Hits
2+ hits
37%
Total Bases
2+ bases
52%
Total Bases
3+ bases
34%
Total Bases
4+ bases
26%
RBIs
1+ RBI
38%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
15%
THE READ
Stands out most on 2+ hits — 37% against 32% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 1 · bats L
- Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
- Facing Hunter Greene
Lars Nootbaar
STL · bats L · slot 5
Home Run
1+ HR
17%
Hits
1+ hits
75%
Hits
2+ hits
35%
Total Bases
2+ bases
51%
Total Bases
3+ bases
32%
Total Bases
4+ bases
23%
RBIs
1+ RBI
42%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
19%
THE READ
Stands out most on 2+ RBIs — 19% against 17% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 5 · bats L
- Facing Hunter Greene
Tyler Stephenson
CIN · bats R · slot 7
Home Run
1+ HR
18%
Hits
1+ hits
72%
Hits
2+ hits
33%
Total Bases
2+ bases
49%
Total Bases
3+ bases
33%
Total Bases
4+ bases
24%
RBIs
1+ RBI
37%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
16%
THE READ
Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 72%.
- Batting 7 · bats R
- Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
- Facing Andre Pallante
Iván Herrera
STL · bats R · slot 4
Home Run
1+ HR
15%
Hits
1+ hits
70%
Hits
2+ hits
29%
Total Bases
2+ bases
44%
Total Bases
3+ bases
27%
Total Bases
4+ bases
20%
RBIs
1+ RBI
38%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
17%
THE READ
Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 70%.
- Batting 4 · bats R
- Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
- Facing Hunter Greene
Spencer Steer
CIN · bats R · slot 6
Home Run
1+ HR
18%
Hits
1+ hits
68%
Hits
2+ hits
29%
Total Bases
2+ bases
45%
Total Bases
3+ bases
29%
Total Bases
4+ bases
22%
RBIs
1+ RBI
36%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
15%
THE READ
Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 68%.
- Batting 6 · bats R
- Cold on results, but hitting the ball well
- Facing Andre Pallante
Dane Myers
CIN · slot 8
Home Run
1+ HR
13%
Hits
1+ hits
70%
Hits
2+ hits
29%
Total Bases
2+ bases
45%
Total Bases
3+ bases
27%
Total Bases
4+ bases
18%
RBIs
1+ RBI
33%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
13%
THE READ
Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 70%.
- Batting 8
- Facing Andre Pallante
Nathan Church
STL · bats L · slot 7
Home Run
1+ HR
15%
Hits
1+ hits
69%
Hits
2+ hits
28%
Total Bases
2+ bases
44%
Total Bases
3+ bases
27%
Total Bases
4+ bases
20%
RBIs
1+ RBI
37%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
16%
THE READ
Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 69%.
- Batting 7 · bats L
- Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
- Facing Hunter Greene
Blaze Jordan
STL · bats R · slot 8
Home Run
1+ HR
12%
Hits
1+ hits
69%
Hits
2+ hits
27%
Total Bases
2+ bases
42%
Total Bases
3+ bases
25%
Total Bases
4+ bases
17%
RBIs
1+ RBI
34%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
14%
THE READ
Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 69%.
- Batting 8 · bats R
- Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
- Facing Hunter Greene
Masyn Winn
STL · bats R · slot 6
Home Run
1+ HR
8%
Hits
1+ hits
66%
Hits
2+ hits
26%
Total Bases
2+ bases
38%
Total Bases
3+ bases
21%
Total Bases
4+ bases
13%
RBIs
1+ RBI
33%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
12%
THE READ
Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 66% against 72%.
- Batting 6 · bats R
- Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
- Facing Hunter Greene
Jimmy Crooks
STL · bats L · slot 9
Home Run
1+ HR
14%
Hits
1+ hits
66%
Hits
2+ hits
25%
Total Bases
2+ bases
40%
Total Bases
3+ bases
24%
Total Bases
4+ bases
18%
RBIs
1+ RBI
33%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
15%
THE READ
Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 66% against 72%.
- Batting 9 · bats L
- Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
- Facing Hunter Greene
Edwin Arroyo
CIN · bats S · slot 9
Home Run
1+ HR
7%
Hits
1+ hits
64%
Hits
2+ hits
24%
Total Bases
2+ bases
36%
Total Bases
3+ bases
18%
Total Bases
4+ bases
11%
RBIs
1+ RBI
28%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
10%
THE READ
Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 64% against 72%.
- Batting 9 · bats S
- Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
- Facing Andre Pallante
III · METHODOLOGY
How this read was built.
- Simulation. 5,000 Monte Carlo trials of this game using real play-by-play data, confirmed lineups, pitcher quality, bullpen depth, defensive runs saved, catcher framing, umpire K-zones, and per-batter rates regressed with empirical Bayes.
- What the number means. The share of those 5,000 trials in which the outcome happened — the model's own estimate, not a claim that a sportsbook has mispriced it. We publish it next to the reasoning that produced it and let the settlement record below speak for itself.
- Settlement. Every read on this page is graded by Kalshi's own settlement market once the game ends. The post-game version of this page shows what was confirmed and what was missed.
DISCLOSURE
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