AI MODEL READ
SETTLEDATL vs BAL
Atlanta Braves at Baltimore Orioles
Friday, July 24, 2026
SIMULATION · ONE TRIAL, EVERY MARKET
Watch the model run this game.
One representative trial from the ATL @ BAL simulation — real per-AB batter, outcome, and score progression from the spine. Every game-level market updates in lock-step with each play.
FIELD
PITCH SEQUENCE
ATL Leadoff (R) vs HP
OUTCOME DISTRIBUTION
ATL Leadoff in this spot
BATTER PROPS · ATL LEADOFF
PITCHER PROPS · HP
GAME MARKETS · LIVE
updating per event
MONEYLINE
BAL to win
TOTAL
Over 8.5
RUN LINE
BAL -1.5
TEAM TOTAL BAL
Over 4.5
FIRST 5 INN
BAL wins F5
event 1 / 20 · pitching
Every card on the board is a live read. As the game changes, the math changes with it — every prop, every market line, in real time. Cards turn green when they hit, red when they miss.
I · GAME-LEVEL MODEL
Win probability + total.
GAME WINNER
✓ CONFIRMEDAtlanta vs Baltimore Winner?
5,000-TRIAL SIMULATION
II · EVERY MARKET WE RAN
Swipe the whole board.
One card per hitter and pitcher, plus the game markets — the sim's own number on every line it priced, with the reasoning that produced it.
169 simulated lines · raw sim
1 / 21
Game Markets
ATL @ BAL · full-game reads
Moneyline
ATL to win
50%
1st 5 Innings
BAL F5
44%
Game Total
Over 8.5
55%
1st 5 Total
Over 4.5
58%
Run Line
BAL -1.5
36%
Team Total
ATL Over 4.5
49%
Team Total
BAL Over 4.5
46%
THE READ
The sim splits this one — 9.46 total runs with under a quarter-run between the sides.
- Projected runs: ATL 4.85, BAL 4.62
- Bryce Elder (ATL) vs Brandon Young (BAL)
- Run on league-average lineups — refreshes when lineups post
Bryce Elder
ATL SP · vs. BAL
Strikeouts
5+ Ks
24%
Strikeouts
6+ Ks
11%
Strikeouts
7+ Ks
4%
Strikeouts
8+ Ks
1%
Strikeouts
9+ Ks
1%
Outs Recorded
15+ outs
51%
Outs Recorded
18+ outs
16%
Hits Allowed
5+ hits
57%
Hits Allowed
6+ hits
43%
THE READ
Low-strikeout projection at 3.3 Ks — the ladder thins out fast above the first rung.
- Sim projects 3.3 strikeouts
- 24% to reach 5+ against BAL
Brandon Young
BAL SP · vs. ATL
Strikeouts
5+ Ks
55%
Strikeouts
6+ Ks
36%
Strikeouts
7+ Ks
20%
Strikeouts
8+ Ks
10%
Strikeouts
9+ Ks
4%
Outs Recorded
15+ outs
97%
Outs Recorded
18+ outs
80%
Hits Allowed
5+ hits
76%
Hits Allowed
6+ hits
64%
THE READ
Middle-of-the-road strikeout projection at 4.8 Ks.
- Sim projects 4.8 strikeouts
- 55% to reach 5+ against ATL
Pete Alonso
BAL · bats R · slot 2
Home Run
1+ HR
29%
Hits
1+ hits
74%
Hits
2+ hits
36%
Total Bases
2+ bases
55%
Total Bases
3+ bases
41%
Total Bases
4+ bases
34%
RBIs
1+ RBI
44%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
22%
THE READ
Stands out most on 1+ HR — 29% against 16% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 2 · bats R
- Facing Bryce Elder
Drake Baldwin
ATL · bats L · slot 1
Home Run
1+ HR
27%
Hits
1+ hits
78%
Hits
2+ hits
42%
Total Bases
2+ bases
59%
Total Bases
3+ bases
44%
Total Bases
4+ bases
35%
RBIs
1+ RBI
42%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
19%
THE READ
Stands out most on 1+ HR — 27% against 16% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 1 · bats L
- Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
- Facing Brandon Young
Matt Olson
ATL · bats L · slot 3
Home Run
1+ HR
26%
Hits
1+ hits
77%
Hits
2+ hits
40%
Total Bases
2+ bases
58%
Total Bases
3+ bases
42%
Total Bases
4+ bases
33%
RBIs
1+ RBI
44%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
21%
THE READ
Stands out most on 1+ HR — 26% against 16% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 3 · bats L
- Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
- Facing Brandon Young
Michael Harris II
ATL · bats L · slot 4
Home Run
1+ HR
24%
Hits
1+ hits
76%
Hits
2+ hits
39%
Total Bases
2+ bases
57%
Total Bases
3+ bases
41%
Total Bases
4+ bases
32%
RBIs
1+ RBI
45%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
22%
THE READ
Stands out most on 4+ bases — 32% against 21% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 4 · bats L
- Facing Brandon Young
Colton Cowser
BAL · bats L · slot 5
Home Run
1+ HR
18%
Hits
1+ hits
67%
Hits
2+ hits
26%
Total Bases
2+ bases
44%
Total Bases
3+ bases
28%
Total Bases
4+ bases
22%
RBIs
1+ RBI
39%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
18%
THE READ
Stands out most on 2+ RBIs — 18% against 15% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 5 · bats L
- Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
- Facing Bryce Elder
Gunnar Henderson
BAL · bats L · slot 3
Home Run
1+ HR
19%
Hits
1+ hits
69%
Hits
2+ hits
29%
Total Bases
2+ bases
44%
Total Bases
3+ bases
30%
Total Bases
4+ bases
23%
RBIs
1+ RBI
36%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
16%
THE READ
Stands out most on 1+ HR — 19% against 16% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 3 · bats L
- Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
- Facing Bryce Elder
Ozzie Albies
ATL · bats S · slot 2
Home Run
1+ HR
16%
Hits
1+ hits
73%
Hits
2+ hits
34%
Total Bases
2+ bases
48%
Total Bases
3+ bases
30%
Total Bases
4+ bases
22%
RBIs
1+ RBI
35%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
14%
THE READ
Stands out most on 2+ hits — 34% against 30% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 2 · bats S
- Facing Brandon Young
Jackson Holliday
BAL · bats L · slot 7
Home Run
1+ HR
18%
Hits
1+ hits
68%
Hits
2+ hits
28%
Total Bases
2+ bases
46%
Total Bases
3+ bases
29%
Total Bases
4+ bases
22%
RBIs
1+ RBI
38%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
17%
THE READ
Stands out most on 2+ RBIs — 17% against 15% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 7 · bats L
- Facing Bryce Elder
Dylan Beavers
BAL · bats L · slot 1
Home Run
1+ HR
11%
Hits
1+ hits
71%
Hits
2+ hits
31%
Total Bases
2+ bases
44%
Total Bases
3+ bases
25%
Total Bases
4+ bases
16%
RBIs
1+ RBI
29%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
11%
THE READ
Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 71%.
- Batting 1 · bats L
- Facing Bryce Elder
Taylor Ward
BAL · bats R · slot 4
Home Run
1+ HR
10%
Hits
1+ hits
69%
Hits
2+ hits
29%
Total Bases
2+ bases
43%
Total Bases
3+ bases
25%
Total Bases
4+ bases
16%
RBIs
1+ RBI
34%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
13%
THE READ
Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 69%.
- Batting 4 · bats R
- Facing Bryce Elder
Austin Riley
ATL · bats R · slot 6
Home Run
1+ HR
11%
Hits
1+ hits
68%
Hits
2+ hits
27%
Total Bases
2+ bases
42%
Total Bases
3+ bases
25%
Total Bases
4+ bases
16%
RBIs
1+ RBI
31%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
12%
THE READ
Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 68%.
- Batting 6 · bats R
- Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
- Facing Brandon Young
Mauricio Dubón
ATL · bats R · slot 5
Home Run
1+ HR
11%
Hits
1+ hits
68%
Hits
2+ hits
28%
Total Bases
2+ bases
40%
Total Bases
3+ bases
23%
Total Bases
4+ bases
15%
RBIs
1+ RBI
32%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
12%
THE READ
Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 68%.
- Batting 5 · bats R
- Facing Brandon Young
Christian Encarnacion-Strand
BAL · slot 8
Home Run
1+ HR
14%
Hits
1+ hits
67%
Hits
2+ hits
25%
Total Bases
2+ bases
42%
Total Bases
3+ bases
25%
Total Bases
4+ bases
18%
RBIs
1+ RBI
34%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
14%
THE READ
Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 67%.
- Batting 8
- Facing Bryce Elder
Joey Bart
ATL · bats R · slot 8
Home Run
1+ HR
13%
Hits
1+ hits
67%
Hits
2+ hits
26%
Total Bases
2+ bases
41%
Total Bases
3+ bases
24%
Total Bases
4+ bases
17%
RBIs
1+ RBI
32%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
12%
THE READ
Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 67%.
- Batting 8 · bats R
- Facing Brandon Young
Eli White
ATL · bats R · slot 7
Home Run
1+ HR
15%
Hits
1+ hits
67%
Hits
2+ hits
27%
Total Bases
2+ bases
41%
Total Bases
3+ bases
25%
Total Bases
4+ bases
18%
RBIs
1+ RBI
32%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
13%
THE READ
Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 67%.
- Batting 7 · bats R
- Facing Brandon Young
Leody Taveras
BAL · bats S · slot 6
Home Run
1+ HR
9%
Hits
1+ hits
66%
Hits
2+ hits
25%
Total Bases
2+ bases
37%
Total Bases
3+ bases
21%
Total Bases
4+ bases
13%
RBIs
1+ RBI
32%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
12%
THE READ
Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 66% against 69%.
- Batting 6 · bats S
- Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
- Facing Bryce Elder
Jorge Mateo
ATL · bats R · slot 9
Home Run
1+ HR
13%
Hits
1+ hits
66%
Hits
2+ hits
24%
Total Bases
2+ bases
38%
Total Bases
3+ bases
22%
Total Bases
4+ bases
16%
RBIs
1+ RBI
30%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
11%
THE READ
Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 66% against 69%.
- Batting 9 · bats R
- Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
- Facing Brandon Young
Chadwick Tromp
BAL · slot 9
Home Run
1+ HR
8%
Hits
1+ hits
59%
Hits
2+ hits
19%
Total Bases
2+ bases
31%
Total Bases
3+ bases
16%
Total Bases
4+ bases
11%
RBIs
1+ RBI
26%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
9%
THE READ
Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 59% against 69%.
- Batting 9
- Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
- Facing Bryce Elder
III · METHODOLOGY
How this read was built.
- Simulation. 5,000 Monte Carlo trials of this game using real play-by-play data, confirmed lineups, pitcher quality, bullpen depth, defensive runs saved, catcher framing, umpire K-zones, and per-batter rates regressed with empirical Bayes.
- What the number means. The share of those 5,000 trials in which the outcome happened — the model's own estimate, not a claim that a sportsbook has mispriced it. We publish it next to the reasoning that produced it and let the settlement record below speak for itself.
- Settlement. Every read on this page is graded by Kalshi's own settlement market once the game ends. The post-game version of this page shows what was confirmed and what was missed.
DISCLOSURE
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