AI MODEL READ
SETTLEDATH vs MIN
ATH at Minnesota Twins
Friday, July 24, 2026
SIMULATION · ONE TRIAL, EVERY MARKET
Watch the model run this game.
One representative trial from the ATH @ MIN simulation — real per-AB batter, outcome, and score progression from the spine. Every game-level market updates in lock-step with each play.
FIELD
PITCH SEQUENCE
ATH Leadoff (R) vs HP
OUTCOME DISTRIBUTION
ATH Leadoff in this spot
BATTER PROPS · ATH LEADOFF
PITCHER PROPS · HP
GAME MARKETS · LIVE
updating per event
MONEYLINE
MIN to win
TOTAL
Over 8.5
RUN LINE
MIN -1.5
TEAM TOTAL MIN
Over 4.5
FIRST 5 INN
MIN wins F5
event 1 / 18 · pitching
Every card on the board is a live read. As the game changes, the math changes with it — every prop, every market line, in real time. Cards turn green when they hit, red when they miss.
I · EVERY MARKET WE RAN
Swipe the whole board.
One card per hitter and pitcher, plus the game markets — the sim's own number on every line it priced, with the reasoning that produced it.
97 simulated lines · raw sim
1 / 12
Game Markets
ATH @ MIN · full-game reads
Moneyline
MIN to win
56%
1st 5 Innings
MIN F5
48%
Game Total
Over 8.5
63%
1st 5 Total
Over 4.5
64%
Run Line
MIN -1.5
43%
Team Total
ATH Over 4.5
50%
Team Total
MIN Over 4.5
56%
THE READ
MIN projects to outscore ATH by 0.44 runs across 5,000 trials.
- Projected runs: ATH 5.00, MIN 5.45
- Jacob Lopez (ATH) vs Zebby Matthews (MIN)
- Run on league-average lineups — refreshes when lineups post
Jacob Lopez
ATH SP · vs. MIN
Strikeouts
5+ Ks
26%
Strikeouts
6+ Ks
12%
Strikeouts
7+ Ks
5%
Strikeouts
8+ Ks
1%
Strikeouts
9+ Ks
0%
Outs Recorded
15+ outs
30%
Outs Recorded
18+ outs
3%
Hits Allowed
5+ hits
50%
Hits Allowed
6+ hits
36%
THE READ
Low-strikeout projection at 3.5 Ks — the ladder thins out fast above the first rung.
- Sim projects 3.5 strikeouts
- 26% to reach 5+ against MIN
Zebby Matthews
MIN SP · vs. ATH
Strikeouts
5+ Ks
42%
Strikeouts
6+ Ks
25%
Strikeouts
7+ Ks
13%
Strikeouts
8+ Ks
6%
Strikeouts
9+ Ks
2%
Outs Recorded
15+ outs
74%
Outs Recorded
18+ outs
47%
Hits Allowed
5+ hits
66%
Hits Allowed
6+ hits
53%
THE READ
Middle-of-the-road strikeout projection at 4.2 Ks.
- Sim projects 4.2 strikeouts
- 42% to reach 5+ against ATH
Byron Buxton
MIN · bats R · slot 2
Home Run
1+ HR
31%
Hits
1+ hits
79%
Hits
2+ hits
41%
Total Bases
2+ bases
60%
Total Bases
3+ bases
45%
Total Bases
4+ bases
38%
RBIs
1+ RBI
49%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
26%
THE READ
Stands out most on 1+ HR — 31% against 15% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 2 · bats R
- Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
- Facing Jacob Lopez
Ryan Jeffers
MIN · slot 3
Home Run
1+ HR
23%
Hits
1+ hits
76%
Hits
2+ hits
36%
Total Bases
2+ bases
54%
Total Bases
3+ bases
37%
Total Bases
4+ bases
28%
RBIs
1+ RBI
44%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
20%
THE READ
Stands out most on 1+ HR — 23% against 15% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 3
- Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
- Facing Jacob Lopez
Josh Bell
MIN · bats S · slot 4
Home Run
1+ HR
18%
Hits
1+ hits
73%
Hits
2+ hits
33%
Total Bases
2+ bases
50%
Total Bases
3+ bases
34%
Total Bases
4+ bases
24%
RBIs
1+ RBI
41%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
19%
THE READ
Stands out most on 2+ RBIs — 19% against 15% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 4 · bats S
- Facing Jacob Lopez
Royce Lewis
MIN · bats R · slot 5
Home Run
1+ HR
14%
Hits
1+ hits
65%
Hits
2+ hits
26%
Total Bases
2+ bases
40%
Total Bases
3+ bases
25%
Total Bases
4+ bases
18%
RBIs
1+ RBI
36%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
15%
THE READ
Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 65%.
- Batting 5 · bats R
- Facing Jacob Lopez
Victor Caratini
MIN · bats S · slot 6
Home Run
1+ HR
13%
Hits
1+ hits
67%
Hits
2+ hits
28%
Total Bases
2+ bases
43%
Total Bases
3+ bases
26%
Total Bases
4+ bases
18%
RBIs
1+ RBI
35%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
14%
THE READ
Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 67%.
- Batting 6 · bats S
- Facing Jacob Lopez
Brooks Lee
MIN · bats S · slot 8
Home Run
1+ HR
14%
Hits
1+ hits
67%
Hits
2+ hits
27%
Total Bases
2+ bases
42%
Total Bases
3+ bases
25%
Total Bases
4+ bases
17%
RBIs
1+ RBI
35%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
15%
THE READ
Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 67%.
- Batting 8 · bats S
- Facing Jacob Lopez
Luke Keaschall
MIN · bats R · slot 7
Home Run
1+ HR
6%
Hits
1+ hits
66%
Hits
2+ hits
24%
Total Bases
2+ bases
36%
Total Bases
3+ bases
18%
Total Bases
4+ bases
10%
RBIs
1+ RBI
28%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
9%
THE READ
Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 66%.
- Batting 7 · bats R
- Facing Jacob Lopez
Austin Martin
MIN · bats R · slot 1
Home Run
1+ HR
5%
Hits
1+ hits
66%
Hits
2+ hits
27%
Total Bases
2+ bases
36%
Total Bases
3+ bases
17%
Total Bases
4+ bases
9%
RBIs
1+ RBI
25%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
8%
THE READ
Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 66%.
- Batting 1 · bats R
- Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
- Facing Jacob Lopez
Ryan Kreidler
MIN · bats R · slot 9
Home Run
1+ HR
10%
Hits
1+ hits
63%
Hits
2+ hits
22%
Total Bases
2+ bases
35%
Total Bases
3+ bases
20%
Total Bases
4+ bases
14%
RBIs
1+ RBI
30%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
12%
THE READ
Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 63% against 69%.
- Batting 9 · bats R
- Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
- Facing Jacob Lopez
II · METHODOLOGY
How this read was built.
- Simulation. 5,000 Monte Carlo trials of this game using real play-by-play data, confirmed lineups, pitcher quality, bullpen depth, defensive runs saved, catcher framing, umpire K-zones, and per-batter rates regressed with empirical Bayes.
- What the number means. The share of those 5,000 trials in which the outcome happened — the model's own estimate, not a claim that a sportsbook has mispriced it. We publish it next to the reasoning that produced it and let the settlement record below speak for itself.
- Settlement. Every read on this page is graded by Kalshi's own settlement market once the game ends. The post-game version of this page shows what was confirmed and what was missed.
DISCLOSURE
BetFly is not a sportsbook, prediction market, or wagering operator. The model reads above are sabermetric simulation output — not advice or a recommendation on whether or how to bet. See our Disclaimer for the full risk disclosure.