AI MODEL READ
SETTLEDSD vs ATL
San Diego Padres at Atlanta Braves
Thursday, July 23, 2026
SIMULATION · ONE TRIAL, EVERY MARKET
Watch the model run this game.
One representative trial from the SD @ ATL simulation — real per-AB batter, outcome, and score progression from the spine. Every game-level market updates in lock-step with each play.
FIELD
PITCH SEQUENCE
SD Leadoff (R) vs HP
OUTCOME DISTRIBUTION
SD Leadoff in this spot
BATTER PROPS · SD LEADOFF
PITCHER PROPS · HP
GAME MARKETS · LIVE
updating per event
MONEYLINE
ATL to win
TOTAL
Over 8.5
RUN LINE
ATL -1.5
TEAM TOTAL ATL
Over 4.5
FIRST 5 INN
ATL wins F5
event 1 / 22 · pitching
Every card on the board is a live read. As the game changes, the math changes with it — every prop, every market line, in real time. Cards turn green when they hit, red when they miss.
I · GAME-LEVEL MODEL
Win probability + total.
GAME WINNER
✗ MISSEDSan Diego vs Atlanta Winner?
5,000-TRIAL SIMULATION
II · EVERY MARKET WE RAN
Swipe the whole board.
One card per hitter and pitcher, plus the game markets — the sim's own number on every line it priced, with the reasoning that produced it.
169 simulated lines · raw sim
1 / 21
Game Markets
SD @ ATL · full-game reads
Moneyline
ATL to win
70%
1st 5 Innings
ATL F5
59%
Game Total
Over 8.5
48%
1st 5 Total
Over 4.5
47%
Run Line
ATL -1.5
55%
Team Total
SD Over 4.5
28%
Team Total
ATL Over 4.5
56%
THE READ
ATL projects to outscore SD by 1.93 runs across 5,000 trials.
- Projected runs: SD 3.37, ATL 5.30
- Kyle Hart (SD) vs Chris Sale (ATL)
- Run on confirmed lineups
Kyle Hart
SD SP · vs. ATL
Strikeouts
5+ Ks
44%
Strikeouts
6+ Ks
25%
Strikeouts
7+ Ks
13%
Strikeouts
8+ Ks
5%
Strikeouts
9+ Ks
2%
Outs Recorded
15+ outs
97%
Outs Recorded
18+ outs
81%
Hits Allowed
5+ hits
82%
Hits Allowed
6+ hits
72%
THE READ
Middle-of-the-road strikeout projection at 4.3 Ks.
- Sim projects 4.3 strikeouts
- 44% to reach 5+ against ATL
Chris Sale
ATL SP · vs. SD
Strikeouts
5+ Ks
81%
Strikeouts
6+ Ks
67%
Strikeouts
7+ Ks
52%
Strikeouts
8+ Ks
38%
Strikeouts
9+ Ks
25%
Outs Recorded
15+ outs
59%
Outs Recorded
18+ outs
30%
Hits Allowed
5+ hits
38%
Hits Allowed
6+ hits
25%
THE READ
Strikeout-heavy projection — the sim has him at 6.8 Ks, with the ladder still live into the 8+ rung.
- Sim projects 6.8 strikeouts
- 81% to reach 5+ against SD
Drake Baldwin
ATL · bats L · slot 1
Home Run
1+ HR
26%
Hits
1+ hits
80%
Hits
2+ hits
43%
Total Bases
2+ bases
60%
Total Bases
3+ bases
44%
Total Bases
4+ bases
34%
RBIs
1+ RBI
44%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
21%
THE READ
Stands out most on 1+ HR — 26% against 13% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 1 · bats L
- Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
- Facing Kyle Hart
Michael Harris II
ATL · bats L · slot 4
Home Run
1+ HR
22%
Hits
1+ hits
77%
Hits
2+ hits
39%
Total Bases
2+ bases
57%
Total Bases
3+ bases
39%
Total Bases
4+ bases
29%
RBIs
1+ RBI
44%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
21%
THE READ
Stands out most on 2+ RBIs — 21% against 12% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 4 · bats L
- Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
- Facing Kyle Hart
Matt Olson
ATL · bats L · slot 3
Home Run
1+ HR
21%
Hits
1+ hits
75%
Hits
2+ hits
36%
Total Bases
2+ bases
53%
Total Bases
3+ bases
36%
Total Bases
4+ bases
27%
RBIs
1+ RBI
42%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
19%
THE READ
Stands out most on 1+ HR — 21% against 13% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 3 · bats L
- Facing Kyle Hart
Ty France
SD · bats R · slot 4
Home Run
1+ HR
20%
Hits
1+ hits
68%
Hits
2+ hits
29%
Total Bases
2+ bases
46%
Total Bases
3+ bases
32%
Total Bases
4+ bases
24%
RBIs
1+ RBI
36%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
15%
THE READ
Stands out most on 1+ HR — 20% against 13% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 4 · bats R
- Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
- Facing Chris Sale
Manny Machado
SD · bats R · slot 3
Home Run
1+ HR
19%
Hits
1+ hits
64%
Hits
2+ hits
25%
Total Bases
2+ bases
44%
Total Bases
3+ bases
29%
Total Bases
4+ bases
22%
RBIs
1+ RBI
33%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
14%
THE READ
Stands out most on 1+ HR — 19% against 13% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 3 · bats R
- Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
- Facing Chris Sale
Ozzie Albies
ATL · bats S · slot 2
Home Run
1+ HR
14%
Hits
1+ hits
73%
Hits
2+ hits
34%
Total Bases
2+ bases
47%
Total Bases
3+ bases
29%
Total Bases
4+ bases
20%
RBIs
1+ RBI
35%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
13%
THE READ
Stands out most on 2+ hits — 34% against 26% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 2 · bats S
- Facing Kyle Hart
Fernando Tatis Jr.
SD · bats R · slot 1
Home Run
1+ HR
15%
Hits
1+ hits
71%
Hits
2+ hits
32%
Total Bases
2+ bases
48%
Total Bases
3+ bases
31%
Total Bases
4+ bases
22%
RBIs
1+ RBI
28%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
10%
THE READ
Stands out most on 3+ bases — 31% against 25% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 1 · bats R
- Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
- Facing Chris Sale
Mike Yastrzemski
ATL · slot 8
Home Run
1+ HR
11%
Hits
1+ hits
66%
Hits
2+ hits
26%
Total Bases
2+ bases
40%
Total Bases
3+ bases
23%
Total Bases
4+ bases
15%
RBIs
1+ RBI
33%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
13%
THE READ
Stands out most on 2+ RBIs — 13% against 12% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 8
- Facing Kyle Hart
Jim Jarvis
ATL · bats L · slot 9
Home Run
1+ HR
12%
Hits
1+ hits
68%
Hits
2+ hits
27%
Total Bases
2+ bases
41%
Total Bases
3+ bases
24%
Total Bases
4+ bases
16%
RBIs
1+ RBI
33%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
12%
THE READ
Stands out most on 1+ RBI — 33% against 30% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 9 · bats L
- Facing Kyle Hart
Austin Riley
ATL · bats R · slot 6
Home Run
1+ HR
10%
Hits
1+ hits
68%
Hits
2+ hits
28%
Total Bases
2+ bases
41%
Total Bases
3+ bases
23%
Total Bases
4+ bases
14%
RBIs
1+ RBI
30%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
11%
THE READ
Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 68%.
- Batting 6 · bats R
- Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
- Facing Kyle Hart
Dominic Smith
ATL · bats L · slot 7
Home Run
1+ HR
11%
Hits
1+ hits
67%
Hits
2+ hits
26%
Total Bases
2+ bases
39%
Total Bases
3+ bases
23%
Total Bases
4+ bases
15%
RBIs
1+ RBI
31%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
12%
THE READ
Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 67%.
- Batting 7 · bats L
- Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
- Facing Kyle Hart
Mauricio Dubón
ATL · bats R · slot 5
Home Run
1+ HR
10%
Hits
1+ hits
68%
Hits
2+ hits
27%
Total Bases
2+ bases
38%
Total Bases
3+ bases
22%
Total Bases
4+ bases
14%
RBIs
1+ RBI
31%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
11%
THE READ
Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 68%.
- Batting 5 · bats R
- Facing Kyle Hart
Gavin Sheets
SD · bats L · slot 6
Home Run
1+ HR
13%
Hits
1+ hits
60%
Hits
2+ hits
20%
Total Bases
2+ bases
37%
Total Bases
3+ bases
22%
Total Bases
4+ bases
17%
RBIs
1+ RBI
27%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
10%
THE READ
Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 60%.
- Batting 6 · bats L
- Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
- Facing Chris Sale
Luis Rengifo
SD · slot 2
Home Run
1+ HR
6%
Hits
1+ hits
62%
Hits
2+ hits
22%
Total Bases
2+ bases
32%
Total Bases
3+ bases
16%
Total Bases
4+ bases
10%
RBIs
1+ RBI
21%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
6%
THE READ
Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 62% against 66%.
- Batting 2
- Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
- Facing Chris Sale
Xander Bogaerts
SD · bats R · slot 5
Home Run
1+ HR
9%
Hits
1+ hits
59%
Hits
2+ hits
20%
Total Bases
2+ bases
34%
Total Bases
3+ bases
18%
Total Bases
4+ bases
12%
RBIs
1+ RBI
23%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
8%
THE READ
Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 59% against 66%.
- Batting 5 · bats R
- Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
- Facing Chris Sale
Jase Bowen
SD · bats R · slot 8
Home Run
1+ HR
7%
Hits
1+ hits
54%
Hits
2+ hits
16%
Total Bases
2+ bases
28%
Total Bases
3+ bases
14%
Total Bases
4+ bases
9%
RBIs
1+ RBI
19%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
6%
THE READ
Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 54% against 66%.
- Batting 8 · bats R
- Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
- Facing Chris Sale
Jake Cronenworth
SD · bats L · slot 9
Home Run
1+ HR
6%
Hits
1+ hits
52%
Hits
2+ hits
14%
Total Bases
2+ bases
25%
Total Bases
3+ bases
13%
Total Bases
4+ bases
8%
RBIs
1+ RBI
18%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
5%
THE READ
Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 52% against 66%.
- Batting 9 · bats L
- Facing Chris Sale
Freddy Fermin
SD · slot 7
Home Run
1+ HR
6%
Hits
1+ hits
49%
Hits
2+ hits
13%
Total Bases
2+ bases
23%
Total Bases
3+ bases
11%
Total Bases
4+ bases
8%
RBIs
1+ RBI
18%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
5%
THE READ
Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 49% against 66%.
- Batting 7
- Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
- Facing Chris Sale
III · METHODOLOGY
How this read was built.
- Simulation. 5,000 Monte Carlo trials of this game using real play-by-play data, confirmed lineups, pitcher quality, bullpen depth, defensive runs saved, catcher framing, umpire K-zones, and per-batter rates regressed with empirical Bayes.
- What the number means. The share of those 5,000 trials in which the outcome happened — the model's own estimate, not a claim that a sportsbook has mispriced it. We publish it next to the reasoning that produced it and let the settlement record below speak for itself.
- Settlement. Every read on this page is graded by Kalshi's own settlement market once the game ends. The post-game version of this page shows what was confirmed and what was missed.
DISCLOSURE
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