AI MODEL READ
SETTLEDMIN vs CLE
Minnesota Twins at Cleveland Guardians
Thursday, July 23, 2026
SIMULATION · ONE TRIAL, EVERY MARKET
Watch the model run this game.
One representative trial from the MIN @ CLE simulation — real per-AB batter, outcome, and score progression from the spine. Every game-level market updates in lock-step with each play.
FIELD
PITCH SEQUENCE
MIN Leadoff (R) vs HP
OUTCOME DISTRIBUTION
MIN Leadoff in this spot
BATTER PROPS · MIN LEADOFF
PITCHER PROPS · HP
GAME MARKETS · LIVE
updating per event
MONEYLINE
CLE to win
TOTAL
Over 8.5
RUN LINE
CLE -1.5
TEAM TOTAL CLE
Over 4.5
FIRST 5 INN
CLE wins F5
event 1 / 19 · pitching
Every card on the board is a live read. As the game changes, the math changes with it — every prop, every market line, in real time. Cards turn green when they hit, red when they miss.
I · GAME-LEVEL MODEL
Win probability + total.
GAME WINNER
✓ CONFIRMEDMinnesota vs Cleveland Winner?
5,000-TRIAL SIMULATION
II · EVERY MARKET WE RAN
Swipe the whole board.
One card per hitter and pitcher, plus the game markets — the sim's own number on every line it priced, with the reasoning that produced it.
169 simulated lines · raw sim
1 / 21
Game Markets
MIN @ CLE · full-game reads
Moneyline
MIN to win
52%
1st 5 Innings
CLE F5
42%
Game Total
Over 8.5
50%
1st 5 Total
Over 4.5
50%
Run Line
CLE -1.5
35%
Team Total
MIN Over 4.5
46%
Team Total
CLE Over 4.5
42%
THE READ
The sim splits this one — 8.87 total runs with under a quarter-run between the sides.
- Projected runs: MIN 4.56, CLE 4.32
- Taj Bradley (MIN) vs Gavin Williams (CLE)
- Run on confirmed lineups
Taj Bradley
MIN SP · vs. CLE
Strikeouts
5+ Ks
71%
Strikeouts
6+ Ks
54%
Strikeouts
7+ Ks
37%
Strikeouts
8+ Ks
22%
Strikeouts
9+ Ks
12%
Outs Recorded
15+ outs
82%
Outs Recorded
18+ outs
46%
Hits Allowed
5+ hits
56%
Hits Allowed
6+ hits
42%
THE READ
Middle-of-the-road strikeout projection at 5.8 Ks.
- Sim projects 5.8 strikeouts
- 71% to reach 5+ against CLE
Gavin Williams
CLE SP · vs. MIN
Strikeouts
5+ Ks
96%
Strikeouts
6+ Ks
91%
Strikeouts
7+ Ks
82%
Strikeouts
8+ Ks
69%
Strikeouts
9+ Ks
54%
Outs Recorded
15+ outs
99%
Outs Recorded
18+ outs
87%
Hits Allowed
5+ hits
68%
Hits Allowed
6+ hits
55%
THE READ
Strikeout-heavy projection — the sim has him at 8.8 Ks, with the ladder still live into the 8+ rung.
- Sim projects 8.8 strikeouts
- 96% to reach 5+ against MIN
Byron Buxton
MIN · bats R · slot 2
Home Run
1+ HR
37%
Hits
1+ hits
73%
Hits
2+ hits
35%
Total Bases
2+ bases
57%
Total Bases
3+ bases
45%
Total Bases
4+ bases
40%
RBIs
1+ RBI
47%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
22%
THE READ
Stands out most on 1+ HR — 37% against 16% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 2 · bats R
- Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
- Facing Gavin Williams
Ryan Jeffers
MIN · slot 3
Home Run
1+ HR
27%
Hits
1+ hits
72%
Hits
2+ hits
31%
Total Bases
2+ bases
51%
Total Bases
3+ bases
38%
Total Bases
4+ bases
31%
RBIs
1+ RBI
39%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
18%
THE READ
Stands out most on 1+ HR — 27% against 16% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 3
- Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
- Facing Gavin Williams
Kody Clemens
MIN · bats L · slot 5
Home Run
1+ HR
24%
Hits
1+ hits
66%
Hits
2+ hits
26%
Total Bases
2+ bases
46%
Total Bases
3+ bases
32%
Total Bases
4+ bases
27%
RBIs
1+ RBI
36%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
16%
THE READ
Stands out most on 1+ HR — 24% against 16% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 5 · bats L
- Facing Gavin Williams
Chase DeLauter
CLE · bats L · slot 3
Home Run
1+ HR
18%
Hits
1+ hits
69%
Hits
2+ hits
29%
Total Bases
2+ bases
45%
Total Bases
3+ bases
30%
Total Bases
4+ bases
22%
RBIs
1+ RBI
36%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
16%
THE READ
Stands out most on 2+ RBIs — 16% against 12% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 3 · bats L
- Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
- Facing Taj Bradley
Josh Bell
MIN · bats S · slot 4
Home Run
1+ HR
19%
Hits
1+ hits
65%
Hits
2+ hits
26%
Total Bases
2+ bases
43%
Total Bases
3+ bases
29%
Total Bases
4+ bases
23%
RBIs
1+ RBI
33%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
13%
THE READ
Stands out most on 4+ bases — 23% against 19% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 4 · bats S
- Facing Gavin Williams
Rhys Hoskins
CLE · bats R · slot 6
Home Run
1+ HR
17%
Hits
1+ hits
60%
Hits
2+ hits
20%
Total Bases
2+ bases
38%
Total Bases
3+ bases
24%
Total Bases
4+ bases
19%
RBIs
1+ RBI
33%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
14%
THE READ
Stands out most on 2+ RBIs — 14% against 12% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 6 · bats R
- Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
- Facing Taj Bradley
Brooks Lee
MIN · bats S · slot 1
Home Run
1+ HR
17%
Hits
1+ hits
67%
Hits
2+ hits
28%
Total Bases
2+ bases
43%
Total Bases
3+ bases
28%
Total Bases
4+ bases
21%
RBIs
1+ RBI
29%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
10%
THE READ
Stands out most on 2+ hits — 28% against 24% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 1 · bats S
- Facing Gavin Williams
Travis Bazzana
CLE · bats L · slot 5
Home Run
1+ HR
13%
Hits
1+ hits
65%
Hits
2+ hits
24%
Total Bases
2+ bases
39%
Total Bases
3+ bases
23%
Total Bases
4+ bases
17%
RBIs
1+ RBI
33%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
14%
THE READ
Stands out most on 2+ RBIs — 14% against 12% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 5 · bats L
- Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
- Facing Taj Bradley
José Ramírez
CLE · slot 2
Home Run
1+ HR
16%
Hits
1+ hits
67%
Hits
2+ hits
27%
Total Bases
2+ bases
44%
Total Bases
3+ bases
27%
Total Bases
4+ bases
20%
RBIs
1+ RBI
32%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
13%
THE READ
Stands out most on 2+ hits — 27% against 24% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 2
- Facing Taj Bradley
Steven Kwan
CLE · bats L · slot 1
Home Run
1+ HR
6%
Hits
1+ hits
67%
Hits
2+ hits
26%
Total Bases
2+ bases
37%
Total Bases
3+ bases
18%
Total Bases
4+ bases
10%
RBIs
1+ RBI
21%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
6%
THE READ
Stands out most on 2+ hits — 26% against 24% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 1 · bats L
- Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
- Facing Taj Bradley
Kyle Manzardo
CLE · bats L · slot 7
Home Run
1+ HR
16%
Hits
1+ hits
62%
Hits
2+ hits
21%
Total Bases
2+ bases
39%
Total Bases
3+ bases
24%
Total Bases
4+ bases
19%
RBIs
1+ RBI
32%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
13%
THE READ
Stands out most on 2+ RBIs — 13% against 12% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 7 · bats L
- Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
- Facing Taj Bradley
Royce Lewis
MIN · bats R · slot 6
Home Run
1+ HR
17%
Hits
1+ hits
61%
Hits
2+ hits
22%
Total Bases
2+ bases
39%
Total Bases
3+ bases
26%
Total Bases
4+ bases
20%
RBIs
1+ RBI
29%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
11%
THE READ
Stands out most on 1+ HR — 17% against 16% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 6 · bats R
- Facing Gavin Williams
Brayan Rocchio
CLE · bats S · slot 4
Home Run
1+ HR
10%
Hits
1+ hits
66%
Hits
2+ hits
26%
Total Bases
2+ bases
38%
Total Bases
3+ bases
21%
Total Bases
4+ bases
14%
RBIs
1+ RBI
32%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
12%
THE READ
Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 66%.
- Batting 4 · bats S
- Facing Taj Bradley
Petey Halpin
CLE · slot 9
Home Run
1+ HR
10%
Hits
1+ hits
60%
Hits
2+ hits
20%
Total Bases
2+ bases
34%
Total Bases
3+ bases
19%
Total Bases
4+ bases
13%
RBIs
1+ RBI
26%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
9%
THE READ
Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 60% against 64%.
- Batting 9
- Facing Taj Bradley
Ryan Kreidler
MIN · bats R · slot 9
Home Run
1+ HR
14%
Hits
1+ hits
59%
Hits
2+ hits
18%
Total Bases
2+ bases
35%
Total Bases
3+ bases
22%
Total Bases
4+ bases
16%
RBIs
1+ RBI
27%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
11%
THE READ
Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 59% against 64%.
- Batting 9 · bats R
- Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
- Facing Gavin Williams
Patrick Bailey
CLE · bats S · slot 8
Home Run
1+ HR
9%
Hits
1+ hits
58%
Hits
2+ hits
18%
Total Bases
2+ bases
30%
Total Bases
3+ bases
17%
Total Bases
4+ bases
11%
RBIs
1+ RBI
25%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
9%
THE READ
Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 58% against 64%.
- Batting 8 · bats S
- Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
- Facing Taj Bradley
Austin Martin
MIN · bats R · slot 7
Home Run
1+ HR
7%
Hits
1+ hits
57%
Hits
2+ hits
18%
Total Bases
2+ bases
31%
Total Bases
3+ bases
16%
Total Bases
4+ bases
10%
RBIs
1+ RBI
21%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
6%
THE READ
Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 57% against 64%.
- Batting 7 · bats R
- Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
- Facing Gavin Williams
Luke Keaschall
MIN · bats R · slot 8
Home Run
1+ HR
6%
Hits
1+ hits
57%
Hits
2+ hits
17%
Total Bases
2+ bases
29%
Total Bases
3+ bases
14%
Total Bases
4+ bases
9%
RBIs
1+ RBI
21%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
7%
THE READ
Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 57% against 64%.
- Batting 8 · bats R
- Facing Gavin Williams
III · METHODOLOGY
How this read was built.
- Simulation. 5,000 Monte Carlo trials of this game using real play-by-play data, confirmed lineups, pitcher quality, bullpen depth, defensive runs saved, catcher framing, umpire K-zones, and per-batter rates regressed with empirical Bayes.
- What the number means. The share of those 5,000 trials in which the outcome happened — the model's own estimate, not a claim that a sportsbook has mispriced it. We publish it next to the reasoning that produced it and let the settlement record below speak for itself.
- Settlement. Every read on this page is graded by Kalshi's own settlement market once the game ends. The post-game version of this page shows what was confirmed and what was missed.
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