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AI MODEL READ

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WSH vs COL

Washington Nationals at Colorado Rockies

Wednesday, July 22, 2026

SIMULATION · ONE TRIAL, EVERY MARKET

Watch the model run this game.

One representative trial from the WSH @ COL simulation — real per-AB batter, outcome, and score progression from the spine. Every game-level market updates in lock-step with each play.

WASHINGTONWSH
0·0
COLORADOCOL
TOP 10-10 OUT

FIELD

WSH DUGOUTCOL DUGOUT330395330LIVE · BETFLY

PITCH SEQUENCE

WSH Leadoff (R) vs HP

FB95.6
SL85.6

OUTCOME DISTRIBUTION

WSH Leadoff in this spot

HR
3%
HIT
9%
BB
9%
K
24%
OUT
55%

BATTER PROPS · WSH LEADOFF

HR YES (O0.5)
12%
HITS O0.5
40%
TOTAL BASES O1.5
24%

PITCHER PROPS · HP

KS O5.5
55%

GAME MARKETS · LIVE

updating per event

MONEYLINE

COL to win

46%

TOTAL

Over 8.5

58%

RUN LINE

COL -1.5

45%

TEAM TOTAL COL

Over 4.5

52%

FIRST 5 INN

COL wins F5

51%
LAST PLAYWSH Leadoff at the plate · pitch 1 of 2

event 1 / 21 · pitching

Every card on the board is a live read. As the game changes, the math changes with it — every prop, every market line, in real time. Cards turn green when they hit, red when they miss.

I · GAME-LEVEL MODEL

Win probability + total.

GAME WINNER

✗ MISSED

Washington vs Colorado Winner?

54%

5,000-TRIAL SIMULATION

II · EVERY MARKET WE RAN

Swipe the whole board.

One card per hitter and pitcher, plus the game markets — the sim's own number on every line it priced, with the reasoning that produced it.

18 simulated lines · raw sim

1 / 2

CC

Cade Cavalli

WSH SP · vs. COL

SP

Strikeouts

5+ Ks

64%

Strikeouts

6+ Ks

43%

Strikeouts

7+ Ks

25%

Strikeouts

8+ Ks

12%

Strikeouts

9+ Ks

5%

Outs Recorded

15+ outs

66%

Outs Recorded

18+ outs

12%

Hits Allowed

5+ hits

61%

Hits Allowed

6+ hits

46%

THE READ

Middle-of-the-road strikeout projection at 5.2 Ks.

  • Sim projects 5.2 strikeouts
  • 64% to reach 5+ against COL
GH

Gabriel Hughes

COL SP · vs. WSH

SP

Strikeouts

5+ Ks

36%

Strikeouts

6+ Ks

21%

Strikeouts

7+ Ks

11%

Strikeouts

8+ Ks

5%

Strikeouts

9+ Ks

2%

Outs Recorded

15+ outs

77%

Outs Recorded

18+ outs

48%

Hits Allowed

5+ hits

76%

Hits Allowed

6+ hits

67%

THE READ

Low-strikeout projection at 3.9 Ks — the ladder thins out fast above the first rung.

  • Sim projects 3.9 strikeouts
  • 36% to reach 5+ against WSH

III · METHODOLOGY

How this read was built.

  • Simulation. 5,000 Monte Carlo trials of this game using real play-by-play data, confirmed lineups, pitcher quality, bullpen depth, defensive runs saved, catcher framing, umpire K-zones, and per-batter rates regressed with empirical Bayes.
  • What the number means. The share of those 5,000 trials in which the outcome happened — the model's own estimate, not a claim that a sportsbook has mispriced it. We publish it next to the reasoning that produced it and let the settlement record below speak for itself.
  • Settlement. Every read on this page is graded by Kalshi's own settlement market once the game ends. The post-game version of this page shows what was confirmed and what was missed.

DISCLOSURE

BetFly is not a sportsbook, prediction market, or wagering operator. The model reads above are sabermetric simulation output — not advice or a recommendation on whether or how to bet. See our Disclaimer for the full risk disclosure.