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AI MODEL READ

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SF vs KC

San Francisco Giants at Kansas City Royals

Wednesday, July 22, 2026

SIMULATION · ONE TRIAL, EVERY MARKET

Watch the model run this game.

One representative trial from the SF @ KC simulation — real per-AB batter, outcome, and score progression from the spine. Every game-level market updates in lock-step with each play.

SAN FRANCISCOSF
0·0
KANSAS CITYKC
TOP 10-11 OUT

FIELD

SF DUGOUTKC DUGOUT330395330LIVE · BETFLY

PITCH SEQUENCE

SF Leadoff (R) vs HP

FB94
CV76.9
FB94.3
CT90.1
CH82.2

OUTCOME DISTRIBUTION

SF Leadoff in this spot

HR
3%
HIT
9%
BB
9%
K
24%
OUT
55%

BATTER PROPS · SF LEADOFF

HR YES (O0.5)
12%
HITS O0.5
40%
TOTAL BASES O1.5
24%

PITCHER PROPS · HP

KS O5.5
55%

GAME MARKETS · LIVE

updating per event

MONEYLINE

KC to win

36%

TOTAL

Over 8.5

58%

RUN LINE

KC -1.5

45%

TEAM TOTAL KC

Over 4.5

52%

FIRST 5 INN

KC wins F5

51%
LAST PLAYSF Leadoff at the plate · pitch 1 of 5

event 1 / 20 · pitching

Every card on the board is a live read. As the game changes, the math changes with it — every prop, every market line, in real time. Cards turn green when they hit, red when they miss.

I · GAME-LEVEL MODEL

Win probability + total.

GAME WINNER

✗ MISSED

San Francisco vs Kansas City Winner?

64%

5,000-TRIAL SIMULATION

GAME TOTAL

✗ MISSED

SF Over 4.5 runs

47%

5,000-TRIAL SIMULATION

vulnerable matchup · straight from our 5,000-trial sim · lineup is 7-for-23 (.304) with 3 HR vs. this starter, career

II · EVERY MARKET WE RAN

Swipe the whole board.

One card per hitter and pitcher, plus the game markets — the sim's own number on every line it priced, with the reasoning that produced it.

18 simulated lines · raw sim

1 / 2

LR

Landen Roupp

SF SP · vs. KC

SP

Strikeouts

5+ Ks

68%

Strikeouts

6+ Ks

50%

Strikeouts

7+ Ks

33%

Strikeouts

8+ Ks

19%

Strikeouts

9+ Ks

11%

Outs Recorded

15+ outs

86%

Outs Recorded

18+ outs

58%

Hits Allowed

5+ hits

63%

Hits Allowed

6+ hits

50%

THE READ

Middle-of-the-road strikeout projection at 5.7 Ks.

  • Sim projects 5.7 strikeouts
  • 68% to reach 5+ against KC
SL

Seth Lugo

KC SP · vs. SF

SP

Strikeouts

5+ Ks

23%

Strikeouts

6+ Ks

10%

Strikeouts

7+ Ks

4%

Strikeouts

8+ Ks

1%

Strikeouts

9+ Ks

0%

Outs Recorded

15+ outs

80%

Outs Recorded

18+ outs

34%

Hits Allowed

5+ hits

70%

Hits Allowed

6+ hits

57%

THE READ

Low-strikeout projection at 3.3 Ks — the ladder thins out fast above the first rung.

  • Sim projects 3.3 strikeouts
  • 23% to reach 5+ against SF

III · METHODOLOGY

How this read was built.

  • Simulation. 5,000 Monte Carlo trials of this game using real play-by-play data, confirmed lineups, pitcher quality, bullpen depth, defensive runs saved, catcher framing, umpire K-zones, and per-batter rates regressed with empirical Bayes.
  • What the number means. The share of those 5,000 trials in which the outcome happened — the model's own estimate, not a claim that a sportsbook has mispriced it. We publish it next to the reasoning that produced it and let the settlement record below speak for itself.
  • Settlement. Every read on this page is graded by Kalshi's own settlement market once the game ends. The post-game version of this page shows what was confirmed and what was missed.

DISCLOSURE

BetFly is not a sportsbook, prediction market, or wagering operator. The model reads above are sabermetric simulation output — not advice or a recommendation on whether or how to bet. See our Disclaimer for the full risk disclosure.