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AI MODEL READ

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SD vs ATL

San Diego Padres at Atlanta Braves

Wednesday, July 22, 2026

SIMULATION · ONE TRIAL, EVERY MARKET

Watch the model run this game.

One representative trial from the SD @ ATL simulation — real per-AB batter, outcome, and score progression from the spine. Every game-level market updates in lock-step with each play.

SAN DIEGOSD
0·0
ATLANTAATL
TOP 11-01 OUT

FIELD

SD DUGOUTATL DUGOUT330395330LIVE · BETFLY

PITCH SEQUENCE

SD Leadoff (R) vs HP

CT87.5
FB96
FB91.9
FB95.3
SL86.3

OUTCOME DISTRIBUTION

SD Leadoff in this spot

HR
3%
HIT
9%
BB
9%
K
24%
OUT
55%

BATTER PROPS · SD LEADOFF

HR YES (O0.5)
12%
HITS O0.5
40%
TOTAL BASES O1.5
24%

PITCHER PROPS · HP

KS O5.5
55%

GAME MARKETS · LIVE

updating per event

MONEYLINE

ATL to win

40%

TOTAL

Over 8.5

58%

RUN LINE

ATL -1.5

45%

TEAM TOTAL ATL

Over 4.5

52%

FIRST 5 INN

ATL wins F5

51%
LAST PLAYSD Leadoff at the plate · pitch 1 of 5

event 1 / 20 · pitching

Every card on the board is a live read. As the game changes, the math changes with it — every prop, every market line, in real time. Cards turn green when they hit, red when they miss.

I · GAME-LEVEL MODEL

Win probability + total.

GAME WINNER

✓ CONFIRMED

San Diego vs Atlanta Winner?

60%

5,000-TRIAL SIMULATION

II · EVERY MARKET WE RAN

Swipe the whole board.

One card per hitter and pitcher, plus the game markets — the sim's own number on every line it priced, with the reasoning that produced it.

18 simulated lines · raw sim

1 / 2

MK

Michael King

SD SP · vs. ATL

SP

Strikeouts

5+ Ks

43%

Strikeouts

6+ Ks

25%

Strikeouts

7+ Ks

12%

Strikeouts

8+ Ks

5%

Strikeouts

9+ Ks

2%

Outs Recorded

15+ outs

72%

Outs Recorded

18+ outs

31%

Hits Allowed

5+ hits

62%

Hits Allowed

6+ hits

49%

THE READ

Middle-of-the-road strikeout projection at 4.3 Ks.

  • Sim projects 4.3 strikeouts
  • 43% to reach 5+ against ATL
MP

Martín Pérez

ATL SP · vs. SD

SP

Strikeouts

5+ Ks

18%

Strikeouts

6+ Ks

8%

Strikeouts

7+ Ks

3%

Strikeouts

8+ Ks

1%

Strikeouts

9+ Ks

0%

Outs Recorded

15+ outs

57%

Outs Recorded

18+ outs

11%

Hits Allowed

5+ hits

60%

Hits Allowed

6+ hits

46%

THE READ

Low-strikeout projection at 3.0 Ks — the ladder thins out fast above the first rung.

  • Sim projects 3.0 strikeouts
  • 18% to reach 5+ against SD

III · METHODOLOGY

How this read was built.

  • Simulation. 5,000 Monte Carlo trials of this game using real play-by-play data, confirmed lineups, pitcher quality, bullpen depth, defensive runs saved, catcher framing, umpire K-zones, and per-batter rates regressed with empirical Bayes.
  • What the number means. The share of those 5,000 trials in which the outcome happened — the model's own estimate, not a claim that a sportsbook has mispriced it. We publish it next to the reasoning that produced it and let the settlement record below speak for itself.
  • Settlement. Every read on this page is graded by Kalshi's own settlement market once the game ends. The post-game version of this page shows what was confirmed and what was missed.

DISCLOSURE

BetFly is not a sportsbook, prediction market, or wagering operator. The model reads above are sabermetric simulation output — not advice or a recommendation on whether or how to bet. See our Disclaimer for the full risk disclosure.