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MIN vs CLE

Minnesota Twins at Cleveland Guardians

Wednesday, July 22, 2026

SIMULATION · ONE TRIAL, EVERY MARKET

Watch the model run this game.

One representative trial from the MIN @ CLE simulation — real per-AB batter, outcome, and score progression from the spine. Every game-level market updates in lock-step with each play.

MINNESOTAMIN
0·0
CLEVELANDCLE
TOP 10-11 OUT

FIELD

MIN DUGOUTCLE DUGOUT330395330LIVE · BETFLY

PITCH SEQUENCE

MIN Leadoff (R) vs HP

CV78.3
CV77
FB95
FB93.9

OUTCOME DISTRIBUTION

MIN Leadoff in this spot

HR
3%
HIT
9%
BB
9%
K
24%
OUT
55%

BATTER PROPS · MIN LEADOFF

HR YES (O0.5)
12%
HITS O0.5
40%
TOTAL BASES O1.5
24%

PITCHER PROPS · HP

KS O5.5
55%

GAME MARKETS · LIVE

updating per event

MONEYLINE

CLE to win

44%

TOTAL

Over 8.5

58%

RUN LINE

CLE -1.5

45%

TEAM TOTAL CLE

Over 4.5

52%

FIRST 5 INN

CLE wins F5

51%
LAST PLAYMIN Leadoff at the plate · pitch 1 of 4

event 1 / 14 · pitching

Every card on the board is a live read. As the game changes, the math changes with it — every prop, every market line, in real time. Cards turn green when they hit, red when they miss.

I · GAME-LEVEL MODEL

Win probability + total.

GAME WINNER

✓ CONFIRMED

Minnesota vs Cleveland Winner?

56%

5,000-TRIAL SIMULATION

II · EVERY MARKET WE RAN

Swipe the whole board.

One card per hitter and pitcher, plus the game markets — the sim's own number on every line it priced, with the reasoning that produced it.

18 simulated lines · raw sim

1 / 2

BO

Bailey Ober

MIN SP · vs. CLE

SP

Strikeouts

5+ Ks

22%

Strikeouts

6+ Ks

10%

Strikeouts

7+ Ks

4%

Strikeouts

8+ Ks

1%

Strikeouts

9+ Ks

0%

Outs Recorded

15+ outs

96%

Outs Recorded

18+ outs

40%

Hits Allowed

5+ hits

69%

Hits Allowed

6+ hits

55%

THE READ

Low-strikeout projection at 3.3 Ks — the ladder thins out fast above the first rung.

  • Sim projects 3.3 strikeouts
  • 22% to reach 5+ against CLE
SC

Slade Cecconi

CLE SP · vs. MIN

SP

Strikeouts

5+ Ks

25%

Strikeouts

6+ Ks

12%

Strikeouts

7+ Ks

5%

Strikeouts

8+ Ks

2%

Strikeouts

9+ Ks

1%

Outs Recorded

15+ outs

77%

Outs Recorded

18+ outs

34%

Hits Allowed

5+ hits

63%

Hits Allowed

6+ hits

50%

THE READ

Low-strikeout projection at 3.4 Ks — the ladder thins out fast above the first rung.

  • Sim projects 3.4 strikeouts
  • 25% to reach 5+ against MIN

III · METHODOLOGY

How this read was built.

  • Simulation. 5,000 Monte Carlo trials of this game using real play-by-play data, confirmed lineups, pitcher quality, bullpen depth, defensive runs saved, catcher framing, umpire K-zones, and per-batter rates regressed with empirical Bayes.
  • What the number means. The share of those 5,000 trials in which the outcome happened — the model's own estimate, not a claim that a sportsbook has mispriced it. We publish it next to the reasoning that produced it and let the settlement record below speak for itself.
  • Settlement. Every read on this page is graded by Kalshi's own settlement market once the game ends. The post-game version of this page shows what was confirmed and what was missed.

DISCLOSURE

BetFly is not a sportsbook, prediction market, or wagering operator. The model reads above are sabermetric simulation output — not advice or a recommendation on whether or how to bet. See our Disclaimer for the full risk disclosure.