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AI MODEL READ

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DET vs CHC

Detroit Tigers at Chicago Cubs

Wednesday, July 22, 2026

SIMULATION · ONE TRIAL, EVERY MARKET

Watch the model run this game.

One representative trial from the DET @ CHC simulation — real per-AB batter, outcome, and score progression from the spine. Every game-level market updates in lock-step with each play.

DETROITDET
0·0
CHICAGOCHC
TOP 11-00 OUT

FIELD

DET DUGOUTCHC DUGOUT330395330LIVE · BETFLY

PITCH SEQUENCE

DET Leadoff (R) vs HP

FB93.9
SL86.6
FB94.1
CV75.5
FB95.6

OUTCOME DISTRIBUTION

DET Leadoff in this spot

HR
3%
HIT
9%
BB
9%
K
24%
OUT
55%

BATTER PROPS · DET LEADOFF

HR YES (O0.5)
12%
HITS O0.5
40%
TOTAL BASES O1.5
24%

PITCHER PROPS · HP

KS O5.5
55%

GAME MARKETS · LIVE

updating per event

MONEYLINE

CHC to win

33%

TOTAL

Over 8.5

58%

RUN LINE

CHC -1.5

45%

TEAM TOTAL CHC

Over 4.5

52%

FIRST 5 INN

CHC wins F5

51%
LAST PLAYDET Leadoff at the plate · pitch 1 of 5

event 1 / 16 · pitching

Every card on the board is a live read. As the game changes, the math changes with it — every prop, every market line, in real time. Cards turn green when they hit, red when they miss.

I · GAME-LEVEL MODEL

Win probability + total.

GAME WINNER

✓ CONFIRMED

Detroit vs Chicago C Winner?

67%

5,000-TRIAL SIMULATION

II · EVERY MARKET WE RAN

Swipe the whole board.

One card per hitter and pitcher, plus the game markets — the sim's own number on every line it priced, with the reasoning that produced it.

18 simulated lines · raw sim

1 / 2

KM

Keider Montero

DET SP · vs. CHC

SP

Strikeouts

5+ Ks

16%

Strikeouts

6+ Ks

7%

Strikeouts

7+ Ks

3%

Strikeouts

8+ Ks

1%

Strikeouts

9+ Ks

1%

Outs Recorded

15+ outs

57%

Outs Recorded

18+ outs

37%

Hits Allowed

5+ hits

60%

Hits Allowed

6+ hits

49%

THE READ

Low-strikeout projection at 2.8 Ks — the ladder thins out fast above the first rung.

  • Sim projects 2.8 strikeouts
  • 16% to reach 5+ against CHC
CR

Colin Rea

CHC SP · vs. DET

SP

Strikeouts

5+ Ks

33%

Strikeouts

6+ Ks

17%

Strikeouts

7+ Ks

7%

Strikeouts

8+ Ks

3%

Strikeouts

9+ Ks

1%

Outs Recorded

15+ outs

100%

Outs Recorded

18+ outs

84%

Hits Allowed

5+ hits

83%

Hits Allowed

6+ hits

72%

THE READ

Low-strikeout projection at 3.8 Ks — the ladder thins out fast above the first rung.

  • Sim projects 3.8 strikeouts
  • 33% to reach 5+ against DET

III · METHODOLOGY

How this read was built.

  • Simulation. 5,000 Monte Carlo trials of this game using real play-by-play data, confirmed lineups, pitcher quality, bullpen depth, defensive runs saved, catcher framing, umpire K-zones, and per-batter rates regressed with empirical Bayes.
  • What the number means. The share of those 5,000 trials in which the outcome happened — the model's own estimate, not a claim that a sportsbook has mispriced it. We publish it next to the reasoning that produced it and let the settlement record below speak for itself.
  • Settlement. Every read on this page is graded by Kalshi's own settlement market once the game ends. The post-game version of this page shows what was confirmed and what was missed.

DISCLOSURE

BetFly is not a sportsbook, prediction market, or wagering operator. The model reads above are sabermetric simulation output — not advice or a recommendation on whether or how to bet. See our Disclaimer for the full risk disclosure.