AI MODEL READ
SETTLEDBAL vs BOS
Baltimore Orioles at Boston Red Sox
Wednesday, July 22, 2026
SIMULATION · ONE TRIAL, EVERY MARKET
Watch the model run this game.
One representative trial from the BAL @ BOS simulation — real per-AB batter, outcome, and score progression from the spine. Every game-level market updates in lock-step with each play.
FIELD
PITCH SEQUENCE
BAL Leadoff (R) vs HP
OUTCOME DISTRIBUTION
BAL Leadoff in this spot
BATTER PROPS · BAL LEADOFF
PITCHER PROPS · HP
GAME MARKETS · LIVE
updating per event
MONEYLINE
BOS to win
TOTAL
Over 8.5
RUN LINE
BOS -1.5
TEAM TOTAL BOS
Over 4.5
FIRST 5 INN
BOS wins F5
event 1 / 14 · pitching
Every card on the board is a live read. As the game changes, the math changes with it — every prop, every market line, in real time. Cards turn green when they hit, red when they miss.
I · GAME-LEVEL MODEL
Win probability + total.
GAME WINNER
✓ CONFIRMEDBaltimore vs Boston Winner?
5,000-TRIAL SIMULATION
our sim and the sharpest books agree
II · EVERY MARKET WE RAN
Swipe the whole board.
One card per hitter and pitcher, plus the game markets — the sim's own number on every line it priced, with the reasoning that produced it.
90 simulated lines · raw sim
1 / 11
Dean Kremer
BAL SP · vs. BOS
Strikeouts
5+ Ks
60%
Strikeouts
6+ Ks
40%
Strikeouts
7+ Ks
23%
Strikeouts
8+ Ks
12%
Strikeouts
9+ Ks
5%
Outs Recorded
15+ outs
92%
Outs Recorded
18+ outs
54%
Hits Allowed
5+ hits
72%
Hits Allowed
6+ hits
60%
THE READ
Middle-of-the-road strikeout projection at 5.1 Ks.
- Sim projects 5.1 strikeouts
- 60% to reach 5+ against BOS
Jake Bennett
BOS SP · vs. BAL
Strikeouts
5+ Ks
42%
Strikeouts
6+ Ks
25%
Strikeouts
7+ Ks
12%
Strikeouts
8+ Ks
5%
Strikeouts
9+ Ks
2%
Outs Recorded
15+ outs
100%
Outs Recorded
18+ outs
93%
Hits Allowed
5+ hits
83%
Hits Allowed
6+ hits
73%
THE READ
Middle-of-the-road strikeout projection at 4.2 Ks.
- Sim projects 4.2 strikeouts
- 42% to reach 5+ against BAL
Willson Contreras
BOS · bats R · slot 4
Home Run
1+ HR
31%
Hits
1+ hits
77%
Hits
2+ hits
38%
Total Bases
2+ bases
59%
Total Bases
3+ bases
44%
Total Bases
4+ bases
36%
RBIs
1+ RBI
50%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
26%
THE READ
Stands out most on 1+ HR — 31% against 17% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 4 · bats R
- Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
- Facing Dean Kremer
Wilyer Abreu
BOS · bats L · slot 3
Home Run
1+ HR
25%
Hits
1+ hits
75%
Hits
2+ hits
36%
Total Bases
2+ bases
55%
Total Bases
3+ bases
38%
Total Bases
4+ bases
30%
RBIs
1+ RBI
44%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
20%
THE READ
Stands out most on 1+ HR — 25% against 17% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 3 · bats L
- Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
- Facing Dean Kremer
Ceddanne Rafaela
BOS · bats R · slot 2
Home Run
1+ HR
15%
Hits
1+ hits
74%
Hits
2+ hits
36%
Total Bases
2+ bases
51%
Total Bases
3+ bases
32%
Total Bases
4+ bases
21%
RBIs
1+ RBI
34%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
13%
THE READ
Stands out most on 2+ hits — 36% against 29% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 2 · bats R
- Facing Dean Kremer
Masataka Yoshida
BOS · bats L · slot 1
Home Run
1+ HR
13%
Hits
1+ hits
72%
Hits
2+ hits
33%
Total Bases
2+ bases
46%
Total Bases
3+ bases
28%
Total Bases
4+ bases
18%
RBIs
1+ RBI
30%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
10%
THE READ
Stands out most on 2+ hits — 33% against 29% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 1 · bats L
- Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
- Facing Dean Kremer
Jarren Duran
BOS · bats L · slot 7
Home Run
1+ HR
18%
Hits
1+ hits
63%
Hits
2+ hits
21%
Total Bases
2+ bases
38%
Total Bases
3+ bases
25%
Total Bases
4+ bases
20%
RBIs
1+ RBI
32%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
14%
THE READ
Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 63%.
- Batting 7 · bats L
- Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
- Facing Dean Kremer
Caleb Durbin
BOS · bats R · slot 5
Home Run
1+ HR
14%
Hits
1+ hits
67%
Hits
2+ hits
26%
Total Bases
2+ bases
40%
Total Bases
3+ bases
25%
Total Bases
4+ bases
18%
RBIs
1+ RBI
33%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
12%
THE READ
Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 67%.
- Batting 5 · bats R
- Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
- Facing Dean Kremer
Romy Gonzalez
BOS · bats R · slot 6
Home Run
1+ HR
14%
Hits
1+ hits
67%
Hits
2+ hits
27%
Total Bases
2+ bases
42%
Total Bases
3+ bases
25%
Total Bases
4+ bases
18%
RBIs
1+ RBI
32%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
12%
THE READ
Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 67%.
- Batting 6 · bats R
- Facing Dean Kremer
Connor Wong
BOS · bats R · slot 8
Home Run
1+ HR
10%
Hits
1+ hits
66%
Hits
2+ hits
25%
Total Bases
2+ bases
40%
Total Bases
3+ bases
22%
Total Bases
4+ bases
15%
RBIs
1+ RBI
28%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
9%
THE READ
Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 66%.
- Batting 8 · bats R
- Facing Dean Kremer
Tsung-Che Cheng
BOS · bats L · slot 9
Home Run
1+ HR
10%
Hits
1+ hits
62%
Hits
2+ hits
22%
Total Bases
2+ bases
35%
Total Bases
3+ bases
19%
Total Bases
4+ bases
12%
RBIs
1+ RBI
27%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
9%
THE READ
Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 62% against 69%.
- Batting 9 · bats L
- Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
- Facing Dean Kremer
III · METHODOLOGY
How this read was built.
- Simulation. 5,000 Monte Carlo trials of this game using real play-by-play data, confirmed lineups, pitcher quality, bullpen depth, defensive runs saved, catcher framing, umpire K-zones, and per-batter rates regressed with empirical Bayes.
- What the number means. The share of those 5,000 trials in which the outcome happened — the model's own estimate, not a claim that a sportsbook has mispriced it. We publish it next to the reasoning that produced it and let the settlement record below speak for itself.
- Settlement. Every read on this page is graded by Kalshi's own settlement market once the game ends. The post-game version of this page shows what was confirmed and what was missed.
DISCLOSURE
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