AI MODEL READ

SETTLED

WSH vs COL

Washington Nationals at Colorado Rockies

Tuesday, July 21, 2026

SIMULATION · ONE TRIAL, EVERY MARKET

Watch the model run this game.

One representative trial from the WSH @ COL simulation — real per-AB batter, outcome, and score progression from the spine. Every game-level market updates in lock-step with each play.

WASHINGTONWSH

0·0

COLORADOCOL

TOP 10-10 OUT

FIELD

PITCH SEQUENCE

WSH Leadoff (R) vs HP

FB93.8

SL85.5

FB91.4

FB94

FB93.1

OUTCOME DISTRIBUTION

WSH Leadoff in this spot

HIT

24%

OUT

55%

BATTER PROPS · WSH LEADOFF

HR YES (O0.5)

12%

HITS O0.5

40%

TOTAL BASES O1.5

24%

PITCHER PROPS · HP

KS O5.5

55%

GAME MARKETS · LIVE

updating per event

MONEYLINE

COL to win

42%

TOTAL

Over 8.5

58%

RUN LINE

COL -1.5

45%

TEAM TOTAL COL

Over 4.5

52%

FIRST 5 INN

COL wins F5

51%

LAST PLAYWSH Leadoff at the plate · pitch 1 of 5

event 1 / 18 · pitching

Every card on the board is a live read. As the game changes, the math changes with it — every prop, every market line, in real time. Cards turn green when they hit, red when they miss.

I · GAME-LEVEL MODEL

Win probability + total.

GAME WINNER

✓ CONFIRMED

Washington vs Colorado Winner?

58%

5,000-TRIAL SIMULATION

II · EVERY MARKET WE RAN

Swipe the whole board.

One card per hitter and pitcher, plus the game markets — the sim's own number on every line it priced, with the reasoning that produced it.

169 simulated lines · raw sim

1 / 21

WSH COL

Game Markets

WSH @ COL · full-game reads

7 MARKETS

Moneyline

WSH to win

64%

1st 5 Innings

COL F5

31%

Game Total

Over 8.5

93%

1st 5 Total

Over 4.5

88%

Run Line

COL -1.5

27%

Team Total

WSH Over 4.5

88%

Team Total

COL Over 4.5

73%

THE READ

WSH projects to outscore COL by 2.47 runs across 5,000 trials.

Projected runs: WSH 9.76, COL 7.29
Carson Palmquist (WSH) vs Michael Lorenzen (COL)
Run on confirmed lineups

Cade Cavalli

WSH SP · vs. COL

Strikeouts

5+ Ks

63%

Strikeouts

6+ Ks

43%

Strikeouts

7+ Ks

25%

Strikeouts

8+ Ks

12%

Strikeouts

9+ Ks

Outs Recorded

15+ outs

66%

Outs Recorded

18+ outs

12%

Hits Allowed

5+ hits

61%

Hits Allowed

6+ hits

48%

THE READ

Middle-of-the-road strikeout projection at 5.2 Ks.

Sim projects 5.2 strikeouts
63% to reach 5+ against COL

Gabriel Hughes

COL SP · vs. WSH

Strikeouts

5+ Ks

44%

Strikeouts

6+ Ks

26%

Strikeouts

7+ Ks

14%

Strikeouts

8+ Ks

Strikeouts

9+ Ks

Outs Recorded

15+ outs

88%

Outs Recorded

18+ outs

66%

Hits Allowed

5+ hits

84%

Hits Allowed

6+ hits

75%

THE READ

Middle-of-the-road strikeout projection at 4.3 Ks.

Sim projects 4.3 strikeouts
44% to reach 5+ against WSH

James Wood

WSH · bats L · slot 1

Home Run

1+ HR

50%

Hits

1+ hits

89%

Hits

2+ hits

62%

Total Bases

2+ bases

77%

Total Bases

3+ bases

66%

Total Bases

4+ bases

59%

RBIs

1+ RBI

67%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

41%

THE READ

Stands out most on 1+ HR — 50% against 25% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

Batting 1 · bats L
Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
Facing Gabriel Hughes

Luis García Jr.

WSH · bats L · slot 2

Home Run

1+ HR

49%

Hits

1+ hits

91%

Hits

2+ hits

64%

Total Bases

2+ bases

78%

Total Bases

3+ bases

66%

Total Bases

4+ bases

58%

RBIs

1+ RBI

68%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

44%

THE READ

Stands out most on 1+ HR — 49% against 25% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

Batting 2 · bats L
Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
Facing Gabriel Hughes

CJ Abrams

WSH · bats L · slot 4

Home Run

1+ HR

41%

Hits

1+ hits

87%

Hits

2+ hits

55%

Total Bases

2+ bases

71%

Total Bases

3+ bases

58%

Total Bases

4+ bases

50%

RBIs

1+ RBI

63%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

39%

THE READ

Stands out most on 1+ HR — 41% against 25% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

Batting 4 · bats L
Facing Gabriel Hughes

Curtis Mead

WSH · bats R · slot 5

Home Run

1+ HR

38%

Hits

1+ hits

85%

Hits

2+ hits

52%

Total Bases

2+ bases

69%

Total Bases

3+ bases

54%

Total Bases

4+ bases

46%

RBIs

1+ RBI

60%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

34%

THE READ

Stands out most on 1+ HR — 38% against 25% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

Batting 5 · bats R
Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
Facing Gabriel Hughes

Hunter Goodman

COL · bats R · slot 3

Home Run

1+ HR

36%

Hits

1+ hits

84%

Hits

2+ hits

51%

Total Bases

2+ bases

68%

Total Bases

3+ bases

53%

Total Bases

4+ bases

43%

RBIs

1+ RBI

57%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

32%

THE READ

Stands out most on 1+ HR — 36% against 25% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

Batting 3 · bats R
Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
Facing Cade Cavalli

Mickey Moniak

COL · bats L · slot 7

Home Run

1+ HR

30%

Hits

1+ hits

82%

Hits

2+ hits

45%

Total Bases

2+ bases

63%

Total Bases

3+ bases

48%

Total Bases

4+ bases

38%

RBIs

1+ RBI

53%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

30%

THE READ

Stands out most on 1+ HR — 30% against 25% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

Batting 7 · bats L
Facing Cade Cavalli

José Tena

WSH · bats L · slot 3

Home Run

1+ HR

25%

Hits

1+ hits

85%

Hits

2+ hits

54%

Total Bases

2+ bases

67%

Total Bases

3+ bases

49%

Total Bases

4+ bases

36%

RBIs

1+ RBI

52%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

27%

THE READ

Stands out most on 2+ hits — 54% against 46% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

Batting 3 · bats L
Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
Facing Gabriel Hughes

Jake McCarthy

COL · bats L · slot 1

Home Run

1+ HR

17%

Hits

1+ hits

84%

Hits

2+ hits

51%

Total Bases

2+ bases

63%

Total Bases

3+ bases

43%

Total Bases

4+ bases

29%

RBIs

1+ RBI

41%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

17%

THE READ

Stands out most on 2+ hits — 51% against 46% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

Batting 1 · bats L
Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
Facing Cade Cavalli

Keibert Ruiz

WSH · bats S · slot 7

Home Run

1+ HR

20%

Hits

1+ hits

81%

Hits

2+ hits

45%

Total Bases

2+ bases

57%

Total Bases

3+ bases

39%

Total Bases

4+ bases

28%

RBIs

1+ RBI

45%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

20%

THE READ

Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 81%.

Batting 7 · bats S
Facing Gabriel Hughes

Willi Castro

COL · bats S · slot 4

Home Run

1+ HR

16%

Hits

1+ hits

81%

Hits

2+ hits

45%

Total Bases

2+ bases

57%

Total Bases

3+ bases

38%

Total Bases

4+ bases

26%

RBIs

1+ RBI

46%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

21%

THE READ

Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 81%.

Batting 4 · bats S
Facing Cade Cavalli

TJ Rumfield

COL · bats L · slot 5

Home Run

1+ HR

17%

Hits

1+ hits

81%

Hits

2+ hits

45%

Total Bases

2+ bases

59%

Total Bases

3+ bases

38%

Total Bases

4+ bases

27%

RBIs

1+ RBI

47%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

22%

THE READ

Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 81%.

Batting 5 · bats L
Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
Facing Cade Cavalli

Cole Carrigg

COL · bats S · slot 2

Home Run

1+ HR

17%

Hits

1+ hits

81%

Hits

2+ hits

44%

Total Bases

2+ bases

57%

Total Bases

3+ bases

38%

Total Bases

4+ bases

26%

RBIs

1+ RBI

41%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

18%

THE READ

Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 81%.

Batting 2 · bats S
Facing Cade Cavalli

Daylen Lile

WSH · bats L · slot 6

Home Run

1+ HR

21%

Hits

1+ hits

80%

Hits

2+ hits

43%

Total Bases

2+ bases

58%

Total Bases

3+ bases

39%

Total Bases

4+ bases

29%

RBIs

1+ RBI

46%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

23%

THE READ

Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 80%.

Batting 6 · bats L
Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
Facing Gabriel Hughes

Kyle Karros

COL · bats R · slot 6

Home Run

1+ HR

17%

Hits

1+ hits

79%

Hits

2+ hits

42%

Total Bases

2+ bases

56%

Total Bases

3+ bases

38%

Total Bases

4+ bases

26%

RBIs

1+ RBI

46%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

21%

THE READ

Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 79%.

Batting 6 · bats R
Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
Facing Cade Cavalli

Nasim Nuñez

WSH · bats S · slot 8

Home Run

1+ HR

Hits

1+ hits

78%

Hits

2+ hits

38%

Total Bases

2+ bases

48%

Total Bases

3+ bases

28%

Total Bases

4+ bases

16%

RBIs

1+ RBI

36%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

13%

THE READ

Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 78%.

Batting 8 · bats S
Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
Facing Gabriel Hughes

Jacob Young

WSH · bats R · slot 9

Home Run

1+ HR

18%

Hits

1+ hits

76%

Hits

2+ hits

39%

Total Bases

2+ bases

52%

Total Bases

3+ bases

34%

Total Bases

4+ bases

25%

RBIs

1+ RBI

43%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

20%

THE READ

Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 76% against 81%.

Batting 9 · bats R
Hot streak, thin underlying support
Facing Gabriel Hughes

Troy Johnston

COL · bats L · slot 8

Home Run

1+ HR

10%

Hits

1+ hits

74%

Hits

2+ hits

35%

Total Bases

2+ bases

48%

Total Bases

3+ bases

28%

Total Bases

4+ bases

17%

RBIs

1+ RBI

38%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

15%

THE READ

Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 74% against 81%.

Batting 8 · bats L
Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
Facing Cade Cavalli

Ezequiel Tovar

COL · bats R · slot 9

Home Run

1+ HR

12%

Hits

1+ hits

69%

Hits

2+ hits

29%

Total Bases

2+ bases

42%

Total Bases

3+ bases

24%

Total Bases

4+ bases

16%

RBIs

1+ RBI

35%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

13%

THE READ

Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 69% against 81%.

Batting 9 · bats R
Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
Facing Cade Cavalli

III · METHODOLOGY

How this read was built.

Simulation. 5,000 Monte Carlo trials of this game using real play-by-play data, confirmed lineups, pitcher quality, bullpen depth, defensive runs saved, catcher framing, umpire K-zones, and per-batter rates regressed with empirical Bayes.
What the number means. The share of those 5,000 trials in which the outcome happened — the model's own estimate, not a claim that a sportsbook has mispriced it. We publish it next to the reasoning that produced it and let the settlement record below speak for itself.
Settlement. Every read on this page is graded by Kalshi's own settlement market once the game ends. The post-game version of this page shows what was confirmed and what was missed.

DISCLOSURE

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