AI MODEL READ
SETTLEDTB vs TOR
Tampa Bay Rays at Toronto Blue Jays
Tuesday, July 21, 2026
SIMULATION · ONE TRIAL, EVERY MARKET
Watch the model run this game.
One representative trial from the TB @ TOR simulation — real per-AB batter, outcome, and score progression from the spine. Every game-level market updates in lock-step with each play.
FIELD
PITCH SEQUENCE
TB Leadoff (R) vs HP
OUTCOME DISTRIBUTION
TB Leadoff in this spot
BATTER PROPS · TB LEADOFF
PITCHER PROPS · HP
GAME MARKETS · LIVE
updating per event
MONEYLINE
TOR to win
TOTAL
Over 8.5
RUN LINE
TOR -1.5
TEAM TOTAL TOR
Over 4.5
FIRST 5 INN
TOR wins F5
event 1 / 17 · pitching
Every card on the board is a live read. As the game changes, the math changes with it — every prop, every market line, in real time. Cards turn green when they hit, red when they miss.
I · GAME-LEVEL MODEL
Win probability + total.
GAME WINNER
✗ MISSEDTampa Bay vs Toronto Winner?
5,000-TRIAL SIMULATION
II · EVERY MARKET WE RAN
Swipe the whole board.
One card per hitter and pitcher, plus the game markets — the sim's own number on every line it priced, with the reasoning that produced it.
169 simulated lines · raw sim
1 / 21
Game Markets
TB @ TOR · full-game reads
Moneyline
TB to win
54%
1st 5 Innings
TOR F5
37%
Game Total
Over 8.5
44%
1st 5 Total
Over 4.5
46%
Run Line
TOR -1.5
31%
Team Total
TB Over 4.5
43%
Team Total
TOR Over 4.5
36%
THE READ
TB projects to outscore TOR by 0.56 runs across 5,000 trials.
- Projected runs: TB 4.42, TOR 3.85
- Drew Rasmussen (TB) vs Kevin Gausman (TOR)
- Run on confirmed lineups
Drew Rasmussen
TB SP · vs. TOR
Strikeouts
5+ Ks
38%
Strikeouts
6+ Ks
21%
Strikeouts
7+ Ks
10%
Strikeouts
8+ Ks
4%
Strikeouts
9+ Ks
1%
Outs Recorded
15+ outs
76%
Outs Recorded
18+ outs
26%
Hits Allowed
5+ hits
55%
Hits Allowed
6+ hits
42%
THE READ
Middle-of-the-road strikeout projection at 4.1 Ks.
- Sim projects 4.1 strikeouts
- 38% to reach 5+ against TOR
Kevin Gausman
TOR SP · vs. TB
Strikeouts
5+ Ks
65%
Strikeouts
6+ Ks
46%
Strikeouts
7+ Ks
28%
Strikeouts
8+ Ks
14%
Strikeouts
9+ Ks
6%
Outs Recorded
15+ outs
95%
Outs Recorded
18+ outs
40%
Hits Allowed
5+ hits
60%
Hits Allowed
6+ hits
46%
THE READ
Middle-of-the-road strikeout projection at 5.3 Ks.
- Sim projects 5.3 strikeouts
- 65% to reach 5+ against TB
Junior Caminero
TB · bats R · slot 3
Home Run
1+ HR
33%
Hits
1+ hits
74%
Hits
2+ hits
37%
Total Bases
2+ bases
57%
Total Bases
3+ bases
44%
Total Bases
4+ bases
38%
RBIs
1+ RBI
48%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
26%
THE READ
Stands out most on 1+ HR — 33% against 13% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 3 · bats R
- Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
- Facing Kevin Gausman
Jonathan Aranda
TB · bats L · slot 2
Home Run
1+ HR
19%
Hits
1+ hits
72%
Hits
2+ hits
33%
Total Bases
2+ bases
50%
Total Bases
3+ bases
33%
Total Bases
4+ bases
25%
RBIs
1+ RBI
37%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
16%
THE READ
Stands out most on 1+ HR — 19% against 13% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 2 · bats L
- Facing Kevin Gausman
Kazuma Okamoto
TOR · bats R · slot 6
Home Run
1+ HR
19%
Hits
1+ hits
64%
Hits
2+ hits
23%
Total Bases
2+ bases
42%
Total Bases
3+ bases
27%
Total Bases
4+ bases
22%
RBIs
1+ RBI
34%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
15%
THE READ
Stands out most on 1+ HR — 19% against 13% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 6 · bats R
- Facing Drew Rasmussen
Yandy Díaz
TB · bats R · slot 1
Home Run
1+ HR
18%
Hits
1+ hits
75%
Hits
2+ hits
38%
Total Bases
2+ bases
53%
Total Bases
3+ bases
35%
Total Bases
4+ bases
25%
RBIs
1+ RBI
35%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
14%
THE READ
Stands out most on 4+ bases — 25% against 16% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 1 · bats R
- Facing Kevin Gausman
George Springer
TOR · slot 4
Home Run
1+ HR
17%
Hits
1+ hits
69%
Hits
2+ hits
27%
Total Bases
2+ bases
45%
Total Bases
3+ bases
28%
Total Bases
4+ bases
21%
RBIs
1+ RBI
36%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
15%
THE READ
Stands out most on 2+ RBIs — 15% against 11% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 4
- Facing Drew Rasmussen
Cedric Mullins
TB · bats L · slot 4
Home Run
1+ HR
15%
Hits
1+ hits
60%
Hits
2+ hits
21%
Total Bases
2+ bases
36%
Total Bases
3+ bases
22%
Total Bases
4+ bases
18%
RBIs
1+ RBI
31%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
12%
THE READ
Stands out most on 1+ HR — 15% against 13% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 4 · bats L
- Facing Kevin Gausman
Nathan Lukes
TOR · bats L · slot 1
Home Run
1+ HR
10%
Hits
1+ hits
71%
Hits
2+ hits
30%
Total Bases
2+ bases
43%
Total Bases
3+ bases
25%
Total Bases
4+ bases
15%
RBIs
1+ RBI
25%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
7%
THE READ
Stands out most on 2+ hits — 30% against 26% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 1 · bats L
- Facing Drew Rasmussen
Ernie Clement
TOR · bats R · slot 3
Home Run
1+ HR
9%
Hits
1+ hits
71%
Hits
2+ hits
30%
Total Bases
2+ bases
42%
Total Bases
3+ bases
23%
Total Bases
4+ bases
14%
RBIs
1+ RBI
29%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
9%
THE READ
Stands out most on 2+ hits — 30% against 26% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 3 · bats R
- Facing Drew Rasmussen
Vladimir Guerrero Jr.
TOR · bats R · slot 2
Home Run
1+ HR
10%
Hits
1+ hits
70%
Hits
2+ hits
30%
Total Bases
2+ bases
44%
Total Bases
3+ bases
25%
Total Bases
4+ bases
16%
RBIs
1+ RBI
28%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
9%
THE READ
Stands out most on 2+ hits — 30% against 26% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 2 · bats R
- Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
- Facing Drew Rasmussen
Brandon Valenzuela
TOR · bats S · slot 7
Home Run
1+ HR
14%
Hits
1+ hits
64%
Hits
2+ hits
23%
Total Bases
2+ bases
39%
Total Bases
3+ bases
23%
Total Bases
4+ bases
17%
RBIs
1+ RBI
29%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
11%
THE READ
Stands out most on 1+ HR — 14% against 13% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 7 · bats S
- Facing Drew Rasmussen
Chandler Simpson
TB · bats L · slot 6
Home Run
1+ HR
5%
Hits
1+ hits
67%
Hits
2+ hits
27%
Total Bases
2+ bases
37%
Total Bases
3+ bases
19%
Total Bases
4+ bases
10%
RBIs
1+ RBI
24%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
8%
THE READ
Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 67%.
- Batting 6 · bats L
- Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
- Facing Kevin Gausman
Daulton Varsho
TOR · bats L · slot 5
Home Run
1+ HR
11%
Hits
1+ hits
66%
Hits
2+ hits
26%
Total Bases
2+ bases
41%
Total Bases
3+ bases
23%
Total Bases
4+ bases
15%
RBIs
1+ RBI
30%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
12%
THE READ
Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 66%.
- Batting 5 · bats L
- Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
- Facing Drew Rasmussen
Jonny DeLuca
TB · bats R · slot 5
Home Run
1+ HR
11%
Hits
1+ hits
65%
Hits
2+ hits
25%
Total Bases
2+ bases
37%
Total Bases
3+ bases
20%
Total Bases
4+ bases
13%
RBIs
1+ RBI
27%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
9%
THE READ
Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 65%.
- Batting 5 · bats R
- Facing Kevin Gausman
Ben Williamson
TB · bats R · slot 7
Home Run
1+ HR
8%
Hits
1+ hits
62%
Hits
2+ hits
23%
Total Bases
2+ bases
36%
Total Bases
3+ bases
19%
Total Bases
4+ bases
12%
RBIs
1+ RBI
25%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
8%
THE READ
Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 62% against 66%.
- Batting 7 · bats R
- Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
- Facing Kevin Gausman
Nick Fortes
TB · bats R · slot 9
Home Run
1+ HR
9%
Hits
1+ hits
62%
Hits
2+ hits
22%
Total Bases
2+ bases
34%
Total Bases
3+ bases
19%
Total Bases
4+ bases
11%
RBIs
1+ RBI
26%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
9%
THE READ
Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 62% against 66%.
- Batting 9 · bats R
- Facing Kevin Gausman
Myles Straw
TOR · bats R · slot 9
Home Run
1+ HR
6%
Hits
1+ hits
59%
Hits
2+ hits
18%
Total Bases
2+ bases
29%
Total Bases
3+ bases
14%
Total Bases
4+ bases
9%
RBIs
1+ RBI
21%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
6%
THE READ
Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 59% against 66%.
- Batting 9 · bats R
- Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
- Facing Drew Rasmussen
Andrés Giménez
TOR · bats L · slot 8
Home Run
1+ HR
7%
Hits
1+ hits
56%
Hits
2+ hits
18%
Total Bases
2+ bases
29%
Total Bases
3+ bases
15%
Total Bases
4+ bases
9%
RBIs
1+ RBI
22%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
7%
THE READ
Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 56% against 66%.
- Batting 8 · bats L
- Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
- Facing Drew Rasmussen
Taylor Walls
TB · bats S · slot 8
Home Run
1+ HR
4%
Hits
1+ hits
56%
Hits
2+ hits
17%
Total Bases
2+ bases
26%
Total Bases
3+ bases
12%
Total Bases
4+ bases
6%
RBIs
1+ RBI
21%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
6%
THE READ
Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 56% against 66%.
- Batting 8 · bats S
- Facing Kevin Gausman
III · METHODOLOGY
How this read was built.
- Simulation. 5,000 Monte Carlo trials of this game using real play-by-play data, confirmed lineups, pitcher quality, bullpen depth, defensive runs saved, catcher framing, umpire K-zones, and per-batter rates regressed with empirical Bayes.
- What the number means. The share of those 5,000 trials in which the outcome happened — the model's own estimate, not a claim that a sportsbook has mispriced it. We publish it next to the reasoning that produced it and let the settlement record below speak for itself.
- Settlement. Every read on this page is graded by Kalshi's own settlement market once the game ends. The post-game version of this page shows what was confirmed and what was missed.
DISCLOSURE
BetFly is not a sportsbook, prediction market, or wagering operator. The model reads above are sabermetric simulation output — not advice or a recommendation on whether or how to bet. See our Disclaimer for the full risk disclosure.