AI MODEL READ
SETTLEDSF vs KC
San Francisco Giants at Kansas City Royals
Tuesday, July 21, 2026
SIMULATION · ONE TRIAL, EVERY MARKET
Watch the model run this game.
One representative trial from the SF @ KC simulation — real per-AB batter, outcome, and score progression from the spine. Every game-level market updates in lock-step with each play.
FIELD
PITCH SEQUENCE
SF Leadoff (R) vs HP
OUTCOME DISTRIBUTION
SF Leadoff in this spot
BATTER PROPS · SF LEADOFF
PITCHER PROPS · HP
GAME MARKETS · LIVE
updating per event
MONEYLINE
KC to win
TOTAL
Over 8.5
RUN LINE
KC -1.5
TEAM TOTAL KC
Over 4.5
FIRST 5 INN
KC wins F5
event 1 / 19 · pitching
Every card on the board is a live read. As the game changes, the math changes with it — every prop, every market line, in real time. Cards turn green when they hit, red when they miss.
I · GAME-LEVEL MODEL
Win probability + total.
GAME WINNER
✓ CONFIRMEDSan Francisco vs Kansas City Winner?
5,000-TRIAL SIMULATION
II · EVERY MARKET WE RAN
Swipe the whole board.
One card per hitter and pitcher, plus the game markets — the sim's own number on every line it priced, with the reasoning that produced it.
169 simulated lines · raw sim
1 / 21
Game Markets
SF @ KC · full-game reads
Moneyline
SF to win
54%
1st 5 Innings
KC F5
40%
Game Total
Over 8.5
64%
1st 5 Total
Over 4.5
69%
Run Line
KC -1.5
33%
Team Total
SF Over 4.5
58%
Team Total
KC Over 4.5
51%
THE READ
SF projects to outscore KC by 0.66 runs across 5,000 trials.
- Projected runs: SF 5.63, KC 4.98
- Tyler Mahle (SF) vs Luinder Avila (KC)
- Run on confirmed lineups
Landen Roupp
SF SP · vs. KC
Strikeouts
5+ Ks
74%
Strikeouts
6+ Ks
56%
Strikeouts
7+ Ks
40%
Strikeouts
8+ Ks
24%
Strikeouts
9+ Ks
14%
Outs Recorded
15+ outs
92%
Outs Recorded
18+ outs
69%
Hits Allowed
5+ hits
67%
Hits Allowed
6+ hits
54%
THE READ
Middle-of-the-road strikeout projection at 6.0 Ks.
- Sim projects 6.0 strikeouts
- 74% to reach 5+ against KC
Seth Lugo
KC SP · vs. SF
Strikeouts
5+ Ks
20%
Strikeouts
6+ Ks
9%
Strikeouts
7+ Ks
3%
Strikeouts
8+ Ks
1%
Strikeouts
9+ Ks
0%
Outs Recorded
15+ outs
63%
Outs Recorded
18+ outs
19%
Hits Allowed
5+ hits
64%
Hits Allowed
6+ hits
50%
THE READ
Low-strikeout projection at 3.1 Ks — the ladder thins out fast above the first rung.
- Sim projects 3.1 strikeouts
- 20% to reach 5+ against SF
Rafael Devers
SF · bats L · slot 4
Home Run
1+ HR
26%
Hits
1+ hits
74%
Hits
2+ hits
34%
Total Bases
2+ bases
53%
Total Bases
3+ bases
38%
Total Bases
4+ bases
31%
RBIs
1+ RBI
45%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
22%
THE READ
Stands out most on 1+ HR — 26% against 15% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 4 · bats L
- Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
- Facing Seth Lugo
Casey Schmitt
SF · bats R · slot 3
Home Run
1+ HR
23%
Hits
1+ hits
75%
Hits
2+ hits
36%
Total Bases
2+ bases
53%
Total Bases
3+ bases
38%
Total Bases
4+ bases
29%
RBIs
1+ RBI
44%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
21%
THE READ
Stands out most on 1+ HR — 23% against 15% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 3 · bats R
- Cold on results, but hitting the ball well
- Facing Seth Lugo
Willy Adames
SF · bats R · slot 5
Home Run
1+ HR
22%
Hits
1+ hits
70%
Hits
2+ hits
31%
Total Bases
2+ bases
49%
Total Bases
3+ bases
34%
Total Bases
4+ bases
27%
RBIs
1+ RBI
41%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
19%
THE READ
Stands out most on 1+ HR — 22% against 15% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 5 · bats R
- Facing Seth Lugo
Bryce Eldridge
SF · bats L · slot 2
Home Run
1+ HR
22%
Hits
1+ hits
74%
Hits
2+ hits
36%
Total Bases
2+ bases
52%
Total Bases
3+ bases
36%
Total Bases
4+ bases
27%
RBIs
1+ RBI
39%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
19%
THE READ
Stands out most on 1+ HR — 22% against 15% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 2 · bats L
- Facing Seth Lugo
Carter Jensen
KC · bats L · slot 1
Home Run
1+ HR
22%
Hits
1+ hits
75%
Hits
2+ hits
37%
Total Bases
2+ bases
54%
Total Bases
3+ bases
37%
Total Bases
4+ bases
28%
RBIs
1+ RBI
40%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
17%
THE READ
Stands out most on 1+ HR — 22% against 15% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 1 · bats L
- Facing Landen Roupp
Jac Caglianone
KC · bats L · slot 3
Home Run
1+ HR
21%
Hits
1+ hits
76%
Hits
2+ hits
37%
Total Bases
2+ bases
54%
Total Bases
3+ bases
37%
Total Bases
4+ bases
28%
RBIs
1+ RBI
42%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
20%
THE READ
Stands out most on 1+ HR — 21% against 15% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 3 · bats L
- Facing Landen Roupp
Heliot Ramos
SF · bats R · slot 1
Home Run
1+ HR
20%
Hits
1+ hits
77%
Hits
2+ hits
39%
Total Bases
2+ bases
54%
Total Bases
3+ bases
37%
Total Bases
4+ bases
27%
RBIs
1+ RBI
38%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
17%
THE READ
Stands out most on 4+ bases — 27% against 20% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 1 · bats R
- Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
- Facing Seth Lugo
Vinnie Pasquantino
KC · slot 5
Home Run
1+ HR
15%
Hits
1+ hits
72%
Hits
2+ hits
31%
Total Bases
2+ bases
48%
Total Bases
3+ bases
31%
Total Bases
4+ bases
22%
RBIs
1+ RBI
37%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
15%
THE READ
Stands out most on 3+ bases — 31% against 28% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 5
- Facing Landen Roupp
Lane Thomas
KC · bats R · slot 2
Home Run
1+ HR
13%
Hits
1+ hits
70%
Hits
2+ hits
31%
Total Bases
2+ bases
44%
Total Bases
3+ bases
27%
Total Bases
4+ bases
18%
RBIs
1+ RBI
32%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
12%
THE READ
Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 70%.
- Batting 2 · bats R
- Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
- Facing Landen Roupp
Jung Hoo Lee
SF · bats L · slot 6
Home Run
1+ HR
7%
Hits
1+ hits
71%
Hits
2+ hits
30%
Total Bases
2+ bases
41%
Total Bases
3+ bases
23%
Total Bases
4+ bases
12%
RBIs
1+ RBI
29%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
10%
THE READ
Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 71%.
- Batting 6 · bats L
- Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
- Facing Seth Lugo
Salvador Perez
KC · bats R · slot 4
Home Run
1+ HR
13%
Hits
1+ hits
66%
Hits
2+ hits
26%
Total Bases
2+ bases
40%
Total Bases
3+ bases
24%
Total Bases
4+ bases
17%
RBIs
1+ RBI
35%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
14%
THE READ
Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 66%.
- Batting 4 · bats R
- Facing Landen Roupp
Jesus Rodriguez
SF · slot 7
Home Run
1+ HR
15%
Hits
1+ hits
68%
Hits
2+ hits
28%
Total Bases
2+ bases
42%
Total Bases
3+ bases
26%
Total Bases
4+ bases
19%
RBIs
1+ RBI
34%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
14%
THE READ
Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 68%.
- Batting 7
- Facing Seth Lugo
Tyler Tolbert
KC · bats R · slot 9
Home Run
1+ HR
11%
Hits
1+ hits
68%
Hits
2+ hits
27%
Total Bases
2+ bases
40%
Total Bases
3+ bases
23%
Total Bases
4+ bases
16%
RBIs
1+ RBI
32%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
13%
THE READ
Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 68%.
- Batting 9 · bats R
- Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
- Facing Landen Roupp
Starling Marte
KC · bats R · slot 6
Home Run
1+ HR
8%
Hits
1+ hits
67%
Hits
2+ hits
27%
Total Bases
2+ bases
39%
Total Bases
3+ bases
21%
Total Bases
4+ bases
13%
RBIs
1+ RBI
30%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
11%
THE READ
Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 67%.
- Batting 6 · bats R
- Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
- Facing Landen Roupp
Michael Massey
KC · bats L · slot 7
Home Run
1+ HR
9%
Hits
1+ hits
66%
Hits
2+ hits
25%
Total Bases
2+ bases
37%
Total Bases
3+ bases
20%
Total Bases
4+ bases
13%
RBIs
1+ RBI
30%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
11%
THE READ
Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 66% against 70%.
- Batting 7 · bats L
- Facing Landen Roupp
Drew Gilbert
SF · bats L · slot 8
Home Run
1+ HR
9%
Hits
1+ hits
64%
Hits
2+ hits
22%
Total Bases
2+ bases
35%
Total Bases
3+ bases
19%
Total Bases
4+ bases
12%
RBIs
1+ RBI
29%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
10%
THE READ
Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 64% against 70%.
- Batting 8 · bats L
- Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
- Facing Seth Lugo
Christian Koss
SF · bats R · slot 9
Home Run
1+ HR
12%
Hits
1+ hits
62%
Hits
2+ hits
23%
Total Bases
2+ bases
37%
Total Bases
3+ bases
21%
Total Bases
4+ bases
15%
RBIs
1+ RBI
30%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
11%
THE READ
Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 62% against 70%.
- Batting 9 · bats R
- Facing Seth Lugo
Nick Loftin
KC · bats R · slot 8
Home Run
1+ HR
8%
Hits
1+ hits
62%
Hits
2+ hits
23%
Total Bases
2+ bases
35%
Total Bases
3+ bases
18%
Total Bases
4+ bases
11%
RBIs
1+ RBI
28%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
10%
THE READ
Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 62% against 70%.
- Batting 8 · bats R
- Facing Landen Roupp
III · METHODOLOGY
How this read was built.
- Simulation. 5,000 Monte Carlo trials of this game using real play-by-play data, confirmed lineups, pitcher quality, bullpen depth, defensive runs saved, catcher framing, umpire K-zones, and per-batter rates regressed with empirical Bayes.
- What the number means. The share of those 5,000 trials in which the outcome happened — the model's own estimate, not a claim that a sportsbook has mispriced it. We publish it next to the reasoning that produced it and let the settlement record below speak for itself.
- Settlement. Every read on this page is graded by Kalshi's own settlement market once the game ends. The post-game version of this page shows what was confirmed and what was missed.
DISCLOSURE
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