AI MODEL READ
SETTLEDSD vs ATL
San Diego Padres at Atlanta Braves
Tuesday, July 21, 2026
SIMULATION · ONE TRIAL, EVERY MARKET
Watch the model run this game.
One representative trial from the SD @ ATL simulation — real per-AB batter, outcome, and score progression from the spine. Every game-level market updates in lock-step with each play.
FIELD
PITCH SEQUENCE
SD Leadoff (R) vs HP
OUTCOME DISTRIBUTION
SD Leadoff in this spot
BATTER PROPS · SD LEADOFF
PITCHER PROPS · HP
GAME MARKETS · LIVE
updating per event
MONEYLINE
ATL to win
TOTAL
Over 8.5
RUN LINE
ATL -1.5
TEAM TOTAL ATL
Over 4.5
FIRST 5 INN
ATL wins F5
event 1 / 19 · pitching
Every card on the board is a live read. As the game changes, the math changes with it — every prop, every market line, in real time. Cards turn green when they hit, red when they miss.
I · GAME-LEVEL MODEL
Win probability + total.
GAME WINNER
✓ CONFIRMEDSan Diego vs Atlanta Winner?
5,000-TRIAL SIMULATION
II · EVERY MARKET WE RAN
Swipe the whole board.
One card per hitter and pitcher, plus the game markets — the sim's own number on every line it priced, with the reasoning that produced it.
169 simulated lines · raw sim
1 / 21
Game Markets
SD @ ATL · full-game reads
Moneyline
ATL to win
62%
1st 5 Innings
ATL F5
51%
Game Total
Over 8.5
69%
1st 5 Total
Over 4.5
71%
Run Line
ATL -1.5
48%
Team Total
SD Over 4.5
50%
Team Total
ATL Over 4.5
66%
THE READ
ATL projects to outscore SD by 1.16 runs across 5,000 trials.
- Projected runs: SD 5.06, ATL 6.22
- Walker Buehler (SD) vs Reynaldo López (ATL)
- Run on confirmed lineups
Walker Buehler
SD SP · vs. ATL
Strikeouts
5+ Ks
17%
Strikeouts
6+ Ks
6%
Strikeouts
7+ Ks
2%
Strikeouts
8+ Ks
0%
Strikeouts
9+ Ks
0%
Outs Recorded
15+ outs
25%
Outs Recorded
18+ outs
0%
Hits Allowed
5+ hits
59%
Hits Allowed
6+ hits
45%
THE READ
Low-strikeout projection at 3.0 Ks — the ladder thins out fast above the first rung.
- Sim projects 3.0 strikeouts
- 17% to reach 5+ against ATL
Reynaldo López
ATL SP · vs. SD
Strikeouts
5+ Ks
24%
Strikeouts
6+ Ks
12%
Strikeouts
7+ Ks
5%
Strikeouts
8+ Ks
2%
Strikeouts
9+ Ks
1%
Outs Recorded
15+ outs
55%
Outs Recorded
18+ outs
19%
Hits Allowed
5+ hits
57%
Hits Allowed
6+ hits
44%
THE READ
Low-strikeout projection at 3.4 Ks — the ladder thins out fast above the first rung.
- Sim projects 3.4 strikeouts
- 24% to reach 5+ against SD
Matt Olson
ATL · bats L · slot 3
Home Run
1+ HR
32%
Hits
1+ hits
79%
Hits
2+ hits
40%
Total Bases
2+ bases
60%
Total Bases
3+ bases
46%
Total Bases
4+ bases
38%
RBIs
1+ RBI
51%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
27%
THE READ
Stands out most on 1+ HR — 32% against 17% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 3 · bats L
- Facing Walker Buehler
Ty France
SD · bats R · slot 4
Home Run
1+ HR
30%
Hits
1+ hits
76%
Hits
2+ hits
38%
Total Bases
2+ bases
56%
Total Bases
3+ bases
42%
Total Bases
4+ bases
34%
RBIs
1+ RBI
47%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
25%
THE READ
Stands out most on 1+ HR — 30% against 17% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 4 · bats R
- Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
- Facing Reynaldo López
Drake Baldwin
ATL · bats L · slot 1
Home Run
1+ HR
29%
Hits
1+ hits
80%
Hits
2+ hits
43%
Total Bases
2+ bases
60%
Total Bases
3+ bases
45%
Total Bases
4+ bases
36%
RBIs
1+ RBI
48%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
22%
THE READ
Stands out most on 1+ HR — 29% against 17% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 1 · bats L
- Cold on results, but hitting the ball well
- Facing Walker Buehler
Michael Harris II
ATL · bats L · slot 5
Home Run
1+ HR
25%
Hits
1+ hits
78%
Hits
2+ hits
41%
Total Bases
2+ bases
58%
Total Bases
3+ bases
41%
Total Bases
4+ bases
32%
RBIs
1+ RBI
46%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
23%
THE READ
Stands out most on 4+ bases — 32% against 22% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 5 · bats L
- Facing Walker Buehler
Manny Machado
SD · bats R · slot 3
Home Run
1+ HR
23%
Hits
1+ hits
68%
Hits
2+ hits
29%
Total Bases
2+ bases
48%
Total Bases
3+ bases
33%
Total Bases
4+ bases
27%
RBIs
1+ RBI
41%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
19%
THE READ
Stands out most on 1+ HR — 23% against 17% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 3 · bats R
- Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
- Facing Reynaldo López
Fernando Tatis Jr.
SD · bats R · slot 1
Home Run
1+ HR
12%
Hits
1+ hits
77%
Hits
2+ hits
40%
Total Bases
2+ bases
53%
Total Bases
3+ bases
34%
Total Bases
4+ bases
22%
RBIs
1+ RBI
33%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
13%
THE READ
Stands out most on 2+ hits — 40% against 31% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 1 · bats R
- Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
- Facing Reynaldo López
Austin Riley
ATL · bats R · slot 4
Home Run
1+ HR
18%
Hits
1+ hits
70%
Hits
2+ hits
31%
Total Bases
2+ bases
47%
Total Bases
3+ bases
31%
Total Bases
4+ bases
23%
RBIs
1+ RBI
39%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
18%
THE READ
Stands out most on 2+ RBIs — 18% against 16% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 4 · bats R
- Hot streak, thin underlying support
- Facing Walker Buehler
Luis Campusano
SD · bats R · slot 6
Home Run
1+ HR
19%
Hits
1+ hits
72%
Hits
2+ hits
32%
Total Bases
2+ bases
49%
Total Bases
3+ bases
33%
Total Bases
4+ bases
25%
RBIs
1+ RBI
37%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
16%
THE READ
Stands out most on 4+ bases — 25% against 22% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 6 · bats R
- Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
- Facing Reynaldo López
Ozzie Albies
ATL · bats S · slot 2
Home Run
1+ HR
15%
Hits
1+ hits
72%
Hits
2+ hits
33%
Total Bases
2+ bases
47%
Total Bases
3+ bases
30%
Total Bases
4+ bases
20%
RBIs
1+ RBI
35%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
14%
THE READ
Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 72%.
- Batting 2 · bats S
- Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
- Facing Walker Buehler
Mauricio Dubón
ATL · bats R · slot 6
Home Run
1+ HR
13%
Hits
1+ hits
72%
Hits
2+ hits
32%
Total Bases
2+ bases
46%
Total Bases
3+ bases
28%
Total Bases
4+ bases
19%
RBIs
1+ RBI
35%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
14%
THE READ
Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 72%.
- Batting 6 · bats R
- Facing Walker Buehler
Gavin Sheets
SD · bats L · slot 7
Home Run
1+ HR
18%
Hits
1+ hits
64%
Hits
2+ hits
23%
Total Bases
2+ bases
41%
Total Bases
3+ bases
27%
Total Bases
4+ bases
21%
RBIs
1+ RBI
33%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
15%
THE READ
Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 64%.
- Batting 7 · bats L
- Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
- Facing Reynaldo López
Brewer Hicklen
ATL · bats R · slot 8
Home Run
1+ HR
14%
Hits
1+ hits
69%
Hits
2+ hits
29%
Total Bases
2+ bases
45%
Total Bases
3+ bases
28%
Total Bases
4+ bases
19%
RBIs
1+ RBI
35%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
15%
THE READ
Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 69%.
- Batting 8 · bats R
- Facing Walker Buehler
Jim Jarvis
ATL · bats L · slot 9
Home Run
1+ HR
12%
Hits
1+ hits
67%
Hits
2+ hits
27%
Total Bases
2+ bases
41%
Total Bases
3+ bases
24%
Total Bases
4+ bases
16%
RBIs
1+ RBI
34%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
15%
THE READ
Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 67%.
- Batting 9 · bats L
- Facing Walker Buehler
Mike Yastrzemski
ATL · slot 7
Home Run
1+ HR
13%
Hits
1+ hits
67%
Hits
2+ hits
28%
Total Bases
2+ bases
42%
Total Bases
3+ bases
26%
Total Bases
4+ bases
18%
RBIs
1+ RBI
34%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
13%
THE READ
Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 67%.
- Batting 7
- Hot streak, thin underlying support
- Facing Walker Buehler
Jake Cronenworth
SD · bats L · slot 2
Home Run
1+ HR
11%
Hits
1+ hits
67%
Hits
2+ hits
27%
Total Bases
2+ bases
39%
Total Bases
3+ bases
22%
Total Bases
4+ bases
15%
RBIs
1+ RBI
30%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
11%
THE READ
Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 67% against 70%.
- Batting 2 · bats L
- Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
- Facing Reynaldo López
Jackson Merrill
SD · bats L · slot 5
Home Run
1+ HR
13%
Hits
1+ hits
65%
Hits
2+ hits
25%
Total Bases
2+ bases
39%
Total Bases
3+ bases
24%
Total Bases
4+ bases
17%
RBIs
1+ RBI
31%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
13%
THE READ
Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 65% against 70%.
- Batting 5 · bats L
- Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
- Facing Reynaldo López
Luis Rengifo
SD · slot 9
Home Run
1+ HR
6%
Hits
1+ hits
60%
Hits
2+ hits
20%
Total Bases
2+ bases
32%
Total Bases
3+ bases
16%
Total Bases
4+ bases
9%
RBIs
1+ RBI
24%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
7%
THE READ
Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 60% against 70%.
- Batting 9
- Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
- Facing Reynaldo López
Xander Bogaerts
SD · bats R · slot 8
Home Run
1+ HR
10%
Hits
1+ hits
60%
Hits
2+ hits
21%
Total Bases
2+ bases
33%
Total Bases
3+ bases
18%
Total Bases
4+ bases
13%
RBIs
1+ RBI
28%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
10%
THE READ
Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 60% against 70%.
- Batting 8 · bats R
- Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
- Facing Reynaldo López
III · METHODOLOGY
How this read was built.
- Simulation. 5,000 Monte Carlo trials of this game using real play-by-play data, confirmed lineups, pitcher quality, bullpen depth, defensive runs saved, catcher framing, umpire K-zones, and per-batter rates regressed with empirical Bayes.
- What the number means. The share of those 5,000 trials in which the outcome happened — the model's own estimate, not a claim that a sportsbook has mispriced it. We publish it next to the reasoning that produced it and let the settlement record below speak for itself.
- Settlement. Every read on this page is graded by Kalshi's own settlement market once the game ends. The post-game version of this page shows what was confirmed and what was missed.
DISCLOSURE
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